I am fairly confident that Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 4-6 weeks or so. The size of the invasion is hard to predict, but my guess is that they will try to seize Kyiv and install a Russia-friendly government. I've been following various open-source intelligence pages, and the information coming out is troubling to say the least. One bit of news that Russia was moving military police units into Belarus to these staging areas could be an indication of plans to secure Kyiv.