Great Power contentions

[spmetla]

Good debate on France24 on the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine:
If Russia did invade: How far would the West go to support Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ExRbjmcf-8

I've personally been thinking that this has gone from rhetoric to a genuine threat. I think Melinda's assessment is closest to what I fear is happening too, Putin would very much like to be one of the Great Men of Russia and there's little other realms he could make that claim aside from resurgence and 'reclaiming' Ukraine for Russia.

[Hooahguy]

I am fairly confident that Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 4-6 weeks or so. The size of the invasion is hard to predict, but my guess is that they will try to seize Kyiv and install a Russia-friendly government. I've been following various open-source intelligence pages, and the information coming out is troubling to say the least. One bit of news that Russia was moving military police units into Belarus to these staging areas could be an indication of plans to secure Kyiv.

[rory_20_uk]

If they restrict themselves to the parts that are mainly Russian friendly then they might be able to benefit from it since they'll be less likely to have an insurrection and have some semblance of excuse that they are doing what the people actually want; going further and trying to hold it makes things worse and worse.

Although the West tends to massively punch under its weight, long range strikes with artillery and missiles from the ground / water or air could reap a heavy toll outside of the Russian soil on high tech equipment, and the Ukranians with additional support would be able to make the rest a hard slog - unlike Iraq and Afghanistan where the locals seem to expect the West to do everything for them and ran off when confronted, Ukranians have been fighting for themselves for some years now. Yes, they'd loose but assuming they don't try a pitched battle this would eventually be expensive - and for Russia, there are more important fronts.

[Hooahguy]

Maybe, but the locations of the military buildups are heavily indicating that they will not be limiting themselves to attacking eastern Ukraine. For example some of the latest images show Russian brigades near the Belarusian town of Mazyr, which is a mere 3.5 hours north of Kyiv.

The real question is the resolve of the Ukrainian people. It is extremely likely that most Ukrainian frontline forces will be decimated in the opening day of the conflict, as Russia has the overwhelming advantage in artillery, air power, and missiles. But will the government and people fold quickly? Or will we see a widespread insurgency? Hard to say at this moment. People can bluster all they want, but when the shells are flying it will be far different.

Edit: I thought this was a really interesting article about what signs to look for an invasion: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...w-these-clues/

[spmetla]

I am fairly confident that Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 4-6 weeks or so. The size of the invasion is hard to predict, but my guess is that they will try to seize Kyiv and install a Russia-friendly government.

I'm feeling the same here, conditions are good for Putin. Biden is weak politically and has been struggling to get a unified NATO front against Russia. Europe has no leadership: Merkel is gone and Scholz is new and not near established enough to get Germany to do anything 'difficult' meanwhile Macron and Boris are dealing more with COVID-19 fallout in different forms.
With Biden having put a commitment to no ground troops that means Putin only has to weigh how difficult the economic repercussions are and when it comes to gaining territory, well at some point in the future the economy can recovery but changes to borders are permanent short of revolutions or outside force, both of which are not forthcoming.

If they restrict themselves to the parts that are mainly Russian friendly then they might be able to benefit from it since they'll be less likely to have an insurrection and have some semblance of excuse that they are doing what the people actually want; going further and trying to hold it makes things worse and worse.

They already hold in fact or through their Separatist proxies the Russian majority regions, any further expansion would be into Ukrainian majority areas. I don't think they worry much about insurgency for several reasons. One: unlike the middle east there isn't going to be a bloc of neighboring co-religionists funneling in diehard supporters, two: the language and culture are similar enough that 'policing' against dissent will be easier, three: if they go full on oppression like in Belarus, well the West will stand by and shake their fingers.

Putting in a Russian proxy government and then moving toward full incorporation into Russia at some point in the future seems the likely goal.

Although the West tends to massively punch under its weight, long range strikes with artillery and missiles from the ground / water or air could reap a heavy toll outside of the Russian soil on high tech equipment, and the Ukrainians with additional support would be able to make the rest a hard slog - unlike Iraq and Afghanistan where the locals seem to expect the West to do everything for them and ran off when confronted, Ukrainians have been fighting for themselves for some years now.

That's why Biden taking ground troops off the table is such a disaster. Conducting strikes against a near-peer power like Russia even within 'friendly territory' of the Ukraine would require a mix of air and ground enablers to do electronic warfare against Russian radar and intelligence systems, strike against integrated air defense systems and so on. Given the distances from our bases in Germany or Carrier Strike Groups in the Med that type of concentrated and consistence power isn't easy to project, especially if all our NATO allies are dithering.
Also, in the event that aircraft are shot down you want to have recovery forces available, something difficult to coordinate if we don't have troops on the ground and in the same HQ as the Ukraine Army.

The following video is just a simulation from a publicly available 'game' but from what I get (I'm just Army wise not Navy or Air Force) it seems fairly well done showing the capabilities in modern war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwU9HKH_Eo&t=22s

I think realistically that the US won't be giving the Ukrainians much aside from intelligence support and perhaps some cyberwarfare support.

Crazy to see the effects in the region though with the heightened tensions. Sweden posting troops in Gotland incase things get hot in the Baltic too. The case of Ukraine and Taiwan too certainly demonstrate that being non-aligned has severe limitations in the case of protecting one's sovereignty, wonder if this would drive Sweden and Finland to being more pro-NATO if not outright mulling joining.

Sweden boosts patrols on Gotland amid Russia tensions
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-01-13/

As always I wonder where Turkey stands on this issue. Turkey being the wildcard of NATO and having soured its relations with NATO through purchasing S400 systems certainly make their stance unclear. Wonder if they'd allow US warships or aircraft to freely navigate into the Black Sea seeing as we have that airbase in Incirlik and they control the Bosphorus.

[Hooahguy]

I'm feeling the same here, conditions are good for Putin. Biden is weak politically and has been struggling to get a unified NATO front against Russia. Europe has no leadership: Merkel is gone and Scholz is new and not near established enough to get Germany to do anything 'difficult' meanwhile Macron and Boris are dealing more with COVID-19 fallout in different forms.
With Biden having put a commitment to no ground troops that means Putin only has to weigh how difficult the economic repercussions are and when it comes to gaining territory, well at some point in the future the economy can recovery but changes to borders are permanent short of revolutions or outside force, both of which are not forthcoming.

Case in point, Germany just blocked Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine, as well as refusing to meet with Biden over Ukraine. Clearly Germany sees the way this is going and would prefer to preserve the Nord Stream pipeline rather than rile things up. Cowards.

I don't think they worry much about insurgency for several reasons.

Eh, I think Ukrainian anti-Russian sentiment is far higher in the western part of the country, compared to the Donbas area which is far more pro-Russian. But this is something that we will only really know for sure when the bullets start flying.

I think realistically that the US won't be giving the Ukrainians much aside from intelligence support and perhaps some cyberwarfare support.

I believe we are also sending hardware as well, but I dont know what exactly.

I hate to say this though, the hard truth is that there is no scenario where the US jumps into a war between Russia and Ukraine. Besides the fact that there's no political will for it, US equipment just isnt positioned for it. How many weeks would it take to get armored brigade combat teams from the US to Europe? We have the equipment for a single ABCT prepositioned now, plus whatever current forces we have on rotation in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics. Now compare that to the current buildup of forces in Belarus and on the Ukranian border. It would be a bloodbath.

Crazy to see the effects in the region though with the heightened tensions. Sweden posting troops in Gotland incase things get hot in the Baltic too. The case of Ukraine and Taiwan too certainly demonstrate that being non-aligned has severe limitations in the case of protecting one's sovereignty, wonder if this would drive Sweden and Finland to being more pro-NATO if not outright mulling joining.

Sweden boosts patrols on Gotland amid Russia tensions
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-01-13/

Yup, I am expecting pro-NATO sentiment to skyrocket after all this. Maybe more in Finland than Sweden but we will see.

As always I wonder where Turkey stands on this issue. Turkey being the wildcard of NATO and having soured its relations with NATO through purchasing S400 systems certainly make their stance unclear. Wonder if they'd allow US warships or aircraft to freely navigate into the Black Sea seeing as we have that airbase in Incirlik and they control the Bosphorus.

Well they did sell their TB2 drones to Ukraine last year, which was used with great effect by Azerbaijan in their 2020 war with Armenia. Doing so made Russia mad, but we will see how effective they would be now considering that Russia has far better technology than Armenia does to counter them.

[spmetla]

Case in point, Germany just blocked Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine, as well as refusing to meet with Biden over Ukraine. Clearly Germany sees the way this is going and would prefer to preserve the Nord Stream pipeline rather than rile things up. Cowards.

Absolutely cowards. Short-sighted easy out policies time and time again. Too vital to Europe to be left out and too afraid of 'difficult' choices to be trusted in charge. Though given a century of poor 'great power' decision making I understand their hesitance to assert a strong EU policy of mutual defense against more than just terrorism. After having dumped nuclear without other 'cleaner' options about they are absolutely reliant on Russian fuel to keep their economy stable and prosperous, especially in the winter.

I wonder if that AUKUS sub deal hadn't so taken Macron and the French establishment by surprise whether they could be trusted to lead a bit more in regard to EU vs Russian power plays. Only France or Germany will ever have the economic, military, and diplomatic credibility to lead the EU but France doesn't have the historical baggage holding it quite back, just a preference to maintain its interests in West Africa and its remaining overseas territories.

hate to say this though, the hard truth is that there is no scenario where the US jumps into a war between Russia and Ukraine. Besides the fact that there's no political will for it, US equipment just isnt positioned for it. How many weeks would it take to get armored brigade combat teams from the US to Europe? We have the equipment for a single ABCT prepositioned now, plus whatever current forces we have on rotation in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics. Now compare that to the current buildup of forces in Belarus and on the Ukranian border. It would be a bloodbath.

That's exactly why I've always opposed us reducing our presence in Europe to a brigade of paratroopers, a Stryker brigade, and one rotational brigade of armor. Of all the global environments in which heavy units may be useful for deterrence if nothing else it is Europe. Positioning 1st Armored Division in Texas to reap the local economic benefits of military spending is nice for the economy but absolutely useless being postured to actually use them. There are also the negative effects of two decades of COIN focus that our conventional formations have suffered from.
Not that I'd want a division to have to go in and fight the Russians but moving them (and ideally the European 'rapid reaction forces') to Poland or Romania would at least make the Russians have to doubt somewhat. Even if we sent all we had in Europe to the Ukraine to help it would be the absolute bloodbath you describe. Credible deterrence to Russia requires us and our allies to be able to assemble tens of the thousands, not just thousands.

What are your thoughts of a 'creeping invasion' with a limited incursion in one area, defeat of Ukrainians and then expansion elsewhere, slow escalations are harder to galvanize democratic societies against than outright war.