Great Power contentions

[Hooahguy]

China isn't imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

Saw that coming a mile away, considering their claims on Taiwan.

[Montmorency]

Because we are a small island the other side of Europe - a modern day phrase would be "We've not got the ships, we've not got the men, and not got the money too"... Pax Britannia is long since dead. And the last time we got involved in a war in that neck of the woods (the Crimea) it went horribly wrong.

A united Europe would struggle to project strength there. And Europe - be that NATO / EU or whatever - isn't. No country in Europe has forces with the reach, nor the logistical chain to back up anything like a near-peer war. Few, if any, in Western Europe have the will to do so.

What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.

Russia/Russian plutocrats have hundreds of billions in assets in Europe, disproportionately in the UK. Not "what can" be done, much to do. It means nothing to speak of devastating financial repercussions against Russia without these steps, because the elite will parasitize the mass of Russians to the end unless you expropriate everything of 'theirs' you can identify. The Russian standard of living is irrelevant. The oligarchic standard of living is everything.

[Pannonian]

I hope you're not expecting me to defend Boris.

What I did say is that neither the EU nor the UK sanctions will do anything. Not buying Russian gas probably would eventually - but I don't see the EU jumping on that one. If the USA blocks Russia from the international banking system that would probably at the very least cause a massive inconvenience.

The UK is one of the biggest investment locations for Russian oligarchs, due to our willingness to allow money laundering. The Taliban are in a bind because everyone is freezing their assets. Why isn't the UK doing the same with Russian oligarchs?

[Montmorency]

torschlusspanik


The Russians are invading, and to a cover of Rammstein's Sonne at that.
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/stat...59399796051969 [VIDEO]

Publicly, he's staking out the middle ground (Donbas clearing operation). But the mythopoetic and nuclear-threat rhetoric aren't really compatible with anything but total conquest - not that Putin's obligated to obey the logic of his words.

Путин заявил, что принял решение о проведении военной операции по защите Донбасса

Putin announced that he had decided to conduct a special military operation to protect Donbass.

Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, Putin added. The plans of the Russian Federation do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, he said.

Circumstances require decisive action from Russia, Putin said.

RF considers it important that all peoples of Ukraine could use the right of self-determination - Putin.

The actions of the Russian Federation are not connected with the infringement of the interests of Ukraine, but with protecting itself from "those who took Ukraine hostage" - Putin.

Russian state media already discussed a partition of Ukraine back in 2014, but the material they've been presenting now is even more extreme.



Clockwise from left: "Stalin's gifts"; "Gifts of the Russian czars"; "Ukraine"; "Lenin's gifts"; "Khruschev's gift."

From a mainline (American) paleoconservative outlet/commentator:

To repeat myself: I am opposed to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. I think Russia should leave Ukraine alone, but whatever happens, I am adamantly against following the US leadership into hawkish actions against the Russians. It’s not at all because I support Russia or in any way approve of what it’s doing. (I hope Russian families and Russian soldiers stop to think about what exorbitant cost is extracted from them so that Putin can restore Greater Russia.) It’s rather that I am sick to the point of puking of these people — the American elites — sh*tting all over so many of us, yet expecting us to send our sons (and daughters) to fight its damn wars. Especially when the goal is to extend American political and cultural hegemony over the world, to allow the Western-oriented elites in those countries to ruin the lives of the normal people in those places in the same way they have ruined ours.

Put another way, I adamantly oppose risking the lives of boys from Louisiana and Alabama to make the Donbass safe for genderqueers and migrants. If that makes me a reactionary troll, fine, I’ll own that. I love my country and would put my life on the line to fight for her against foreign invaders. But we are not the good guys I used to think we were. We can’t even protect schoolgirls in Louisiana and Alabama from this toxic ideology that is destroying their moral sense, but they expect us to gear up in case we are called to fight for Ukraine?

Biden has said American troops won’t be fighting for Ukraine. I don’t believe him. It’s not that I think he’s consciously lying, but rather it’s that things could go very bad, very quickly, with US troops in the region. And it’s that my trust in anything anybody in Washington says is about at the level of a synod of bishops.

It is incontrovertible that the human Right today is inreasingly beglamoured by a psychotic evil, and we must defend ourselves.

[Montmorency]

Some thoughts, with roughly appropriate soundtrack.



I think the Azeri-Armenian war of 2020 will go down as a milestone of the 21st century, whether on par with 9/11 and a handful of others, only time will tell. Setting the stage for the principals of the contest such as to be reminiscent of the Balkan wars or the Spanish Civil War.

I can't help but think this episode will only reinforce the Israeli commitment to occupying as much land as they can get away with. The message of a territorially-larger country overwhelming a smaller one's occupation of its territory by dint of a bigger population and military as well as allies must for Israel be on par with the one received by North Korea and Iran when Hussein got wiped out. And Israel's holdings are honestly more modest than Armenia's were, following the return of the Sinai to Egypt. (I assume the logic behind the Armenian occupation around Nagorno-Karabakh was in the first place precisely to give itself, a smaller country than Azerbaijan in every way, a buffer between its heartland and the opposition.)

Moreover, that this was such a lopsided, quick, and decisive conflict might encourage future irredentism and authoritarian adventurism around the world: 'If it worked for Azerbaijan, maybe it can work for us.'

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Some significant developments of the past two years, from Russia's perspective:

• An uncontrolled pandemic kills up to a million Russians (cf. excess deaths estimates), while the domestic vaccine is mustrusted to the point of refusal by half the public.
• Massive protests threatening Putin's closest allies (Belarus, Kazakhstan) challenge Russian authority and provoke militarized assistance with backroom concessions.
• Russia's man in DC is deposed, but the United States is more divided and chaotic than ever as it struggles with the wounded pride of Afghanistan, Covidiocy, and an ongoing insurrection up through the elite.
• In a war between former Soviet states (longtime Russian clients) that threatens Russian influence in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan proves decisively - for the first time since perhaps WW2 - that one sovereign state can straight up conquer another in conventional warfare without much fuss, annex territory, and get away with it.
• China, Russia's crucial strategic partner, takes notice and immediately heightens irredentist rhetoric and maneuvering over Taiwan.
• The pandemic-linked global supply chain crisis returns oil and gas prices to their highest in almost a decade. The EU is burdened by high energy expenditures into Winter 2022.

Putin doesn't have many good years in power left. In principle, this was the best window of opportunity he could expect to get to settle imperial legacies. It would also be just the move, in his mind, to reassert his authority and image domestically (dispel the malaise of an F-tier pandemic response) and in the near-abroad (Belarus, Central Asia, Baltics). But like I said earlier, with oil and gas (mostly oil) representing a majority of Russia's exports, and a plurality of government revenues, Putin is being short-sighted. Unless the West really does flake at the last minute, this is the pivotal opportunity for Europe to diversify and decarbonize its energy demand, a process that in its culmination signals the terminal decline of the Russian economy (which has already struggled to stay afloat the existing sanctions regime).

Biden, get that money "printer" rolling and pay off our allies and citizens.

[spmetla]

Watching the photos and videos on various media sources my heart goes out to the Ukrainians right now. I'm just wondering whether any Ukrainian units will be able to stand their ground against so much firepower. Those MLRS barrages are something to behold not to mention everything else being done.

I can only hope that even the kitchen sink of sanctions is thrown in as it's too late to do anything else. Perhaps we'll see how far the Russians have penetrated and where in the next few hours. Given the countrywide strikes by Russia overnight I'm sure the command-and-control ability of the Ukrainian army is severely degraded, and their limited airpower is likely destroyed or soon to flee westward.

Hope the rest of Europe is ready for a mass of refugees from a fellow European state.

[Shaka_Khan]

Saw that coming a mile away, considering their claims on Taiwan.

Same here.
Economic sanctions by the EU and North America alone won't stop Putin, not right away.

[Kagemusha]

It seems that Russia has neutralized lot of military airports,installations and depots with cruise missiles already.Also major ports have been targeted. At least three separate armoured recon elements have crossed from Belarussia towards Ukrainian major cities. Also similar Armored elements have crossed from Crimea towards North, while attacks have started along the entire "separatist" frontier.

I would expect that within today the main bodies of those armoured formations will pour in from North and South, while probably amphibious landings will happen at Black Sea coast. On top of that my bet is that paratroops and air mobile infantry will start landing on key locations soon enough. Black Day for all of us.

[Crandar]

The analogies with Azerbaijan are unconvincing. Azerbaijan took back the Azerbaijani lands, which had been conquered by the Armenians 25 years ago. The land was globally recognized as Azerbaijani, despite being ethnically cleansed and under Armenian military occupation.

[Kagemusha]

Russian air assault starts near Kiev: https://twitter.com/i/status/1496805801628995587

[Furunculus]

Russian air assault starts near Kiev: https://twitter.com/i/status/1496805801628995587

just heard from polish radio (we've been into Wielun in the car), that russian forces were at the ring road going around kiev....

[Montmorency]

The analogies with Azerbaijan are unconvincing. Azerbaijan took back the Azerbaijani lands, which had been conquered by the Armenians 25 years ago. The land was globally recognized as Azerbaijani, despite being ethnically cleansed and under Armenian military occupation.

The perceived legitimacy of the claims is irrelevant to the geopolitical impact. Putin, Xi, et al. didn't sit there thinking 'Ah, so it's allowed to take territory from another state as long as it's within internationally-recognized borders.'

We should interpret the event functionally as open season on irredentism.

[Crandar]

What perceived legitimacy? Everyone recognized these lands as Azerbaijani. How can an act that conciliates the de facto with the de jure situation be described as irredentist? As I said, he didn't take any territory from Armenia, since Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories, according even to Armenia itself. Also, unlike Russia, Azerbaijan was not diplomatically isolated. That was more true for Armenia, which is largely why it was crushed in the conflict. I don't know from where Putin got his inspiration (not sure how China is relevant), probably from nowhere, if I had to guess, but Azerbaijan is one of the worst examples imagined. It would be more appropriate for Ukraine, if it had invaded the Donbass, in order to throw out the Russian occupying troops.

[spmetla]

Certainly, terrifying watching the war's coverage on twitter. Seems Ukraine is putting up more of a fight than the Russian's expected though with the major breakout in the South to Kherson and the current battle over the airport west of Kiev who knows how long they can hold. The casualties on both sides must be intense though, based off what I've seen so far probably KIA in the high hundreds and WIA in the thousands for Russia and KIA and WIA in the high thousands for Ukraine.

The current cyber attacks on Russian websites are likely from the US/NATO which together with the war being close to NATO borders will create very dangerous possibilities for expansion of the war. Can very easily see scenarios where Russia's shoot down NATO aircraft or do artillery barrages against Ukrainian positions near Romania or Poland leading to the possibility of escalation. This thing is extremely dangerous.

The current 1984-esque thinking by China is mind boggling of we 'respect Ukraine's sovereignty' while also saying this is not an invasion and they understand 'Russia's legitimate security concerns.'

I'll expect Finland and Sweden to either go outright NATO applicants or just short of in military partnership in the near future.

The fate of Moldova will be interesting as that is still a sore spot for Romania as the people are ethnic Romanians that Russia has repeatedly separated from Romania and tried to russify over that last two centuries.

[Furunculus]

The UK is one of the biggest investment locations for Russian oligarchs, due to our willingness to allow money laundering. The Taliban are in a bind because everyone is freezing their assets. Why isn't the UK doing the same with Russian oligarchs?

i believe we are now doing just this - stage #2 has arrived after the first bunch of measures taken earlier in the week:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96779983683584

rumour has it that italy and france are vetoing kicking russia out of the SWIFT intebank system:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...92887732297730

[Montmorency]

I've heard a lot of reports that NE Ukraine (Sumny/Chernihiv) are being penetrated, deeply at that, which dovetails with this report from a month ago that the Ukrainian army was designating most of the area between Kiev and Kharkiv undefendable. Seems a little odd, since those areas have the most forest cover in Eastern Ukraine AFAIK. Or maybe this is also part of the Ukrainian army's supposed doctrine of organizing regulars for guerrilla operations subsequent to the opening phase of conflict, if the rest of Eastern Ukraine isn't conducive for it (Ukraine's typical terrain made it almost a green zone for German forces during WW2, I've read, with almost all partisan activity being concentrated in and around the borders of contemporary Belarus). Any corrections on this point are appreciated.

[For clarity, this is just a pre-war map highlighting the oblasts in question]

What perceived legitimacy? Everyone recognized these lands as Azerbaijani. How can an act that conciliates the de facto with the de jure situation be described as irredentist? As I said, he didn't take any territory from Armenia, since Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories, according even to Armenia itself. Also, unlike Russia, Azerbaijan was not diplomatically isolated. That was more true for Armenia, which is largely why it was crushed in the conflict.

I'm telling you that's beside the point. Whether you think Azerbaijan was justified in starting a new war doesn't change the fact that two conventional forces clashed, one lost bad, and had to give up territory (and it's not inconceivable that Azerbaijan could have occupied all of NK/A and much of Armenia had Russia not intervened diplomatically). If you just have a strong sense of Azerbaijan being 'good guys', I repeat, that's irrelevant. They could be the very best like no one ever was, or worse than Hitler. Consequences are a function of power, not good or bad. A small country like Azerbaijan used war to (re)take land for the nation. If they can do it, so can (potentially) anyone else. The implications of such a weltgeist are immediately accessible.

Frozen territorial claims have been heating up everywhere over the past 15 years from the West Pacific to Atlantic Africa, but the 2020 war was the first time since WW2 that anyone I know of has been able to settle them by force. Azerbaijan won. Armenia can't touch them, and was lucky to retain its government; the people of NK/A were lucky to avoid ethnic cleansing. Armenia could in the future get roiled into a suicidal war of revenge, or Azeri leadership a hankering for conquest, but the variables are permanently changed. From the Azeri POV they enjoyed almost a total success (and we should hope they are satisfied). World leaders can observe these developments for themselves. Don't rule out Cypriot unification within the decade, for an example closer to home.

I don't know from where Putin got his inspiration (not sure how China is relevant), probably from nowhere, if I had to guess, but Azerbaijan is one of the worst examples imagined.

You don't need a lot of imagination or effort to understand it, he laid out his [I[motivation[/I] in great detail, as have his cronies. He's a palingenetic Russian ultranationalist, with all that entails. What my post described was the development of the opportunity at this point in time. Why here, why now? I don't think it's a coincidence that China and Russia immediately took on a more escalatory posture to their respective claims as the dust settled in the Caucasus.

China is in the picture because it has very similar aspirations wrt Taiwan, and haven't carefully built the second-most powerful military in the world just for the sake of posturing.

But we can at least safely rule out Republican Senator of Alabama Tuberville's (the Slavic version of his name might be Bulbashovka) account: “He can’t feed his people. It’s a communist country, so he can’t feed his people, so they need more farmland.”

rumour has it that italy and france are vetoing kicking russia out of the SWIFT intebank system:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...92887732297730

The US should of course finance whatever is needed, including any short-term production boost Saudi Arabia can be convinced to release, but the EU really needs to take a hard line and start issuing more bonds on this very special occasion. EU countries need to take the opportunity to agree on a comprehensive energy security/decarbonization package. While the bandage is already being ripped off, seize the moment to do as much as possible.

[Crandar]

It's not about Azerbaijan being the goodies or the baddies, but that the comparison was completely unsuitable, for the legal and diplomatic reasons I cited. Could Cyprus be reunited? Yes, sure, if something like the previous referendum passes. Could Turkey conquer the rest of the island. Not a single chance, in Greece only the crazies of the Golden Dawn believe in that stuff.

As for Putin's motivation, you make the mistake of buying his bubble intended for domestic purposes and then spinning it to fit the dominant narrative in geopolitical discourse since the '90s about ideology being a primary factor. Not sure about the dust settling either. It's been more than a year since the Armenians capitulated.

EDIT: Fidonisi has been taken. Zelenski is presenting its defense as the Ukrainian Hotgates. He's too melodramatic I believe, which might actually undermine morale.

[Montmorency]

Live maps of the military dispositions have begun coming out for what they're worth, this one from militaryland dot net. I think an earlier version displaying just the starting deployments supports the impression that Ukraine planned to largely abandon the NE, with something like 3 brigades for the whole area compared to 9 or 10 around Donbas.

It's not about Azerbaijan being the goodies or the baddies, but that the comparison was completely unsuitable, for the legal and diplomatic reasons I cited. Could Cyprus be reunited? Yes, sure, if something like the previous referendum passes. Could Turkey conquer the rest of the island. Not a single chance, in Greece only the crazies of the Golden Dawn believe in that stuff.

As for Putin's motivation, you make the mistake of buying his bubble intended for domestic purposes and then spinning it to fit the dominant narrative in geopolitical discourse since the '90s about ideology being a primary factor. Not sure about the dust settling either. It's been more than a year since the Armenians capitulated.

EDIT: Fidonisi has been taken. Zelenski is presenting its defense as the Ukrainian Hotgates. He's too melodramatic I believe, which might actually undermine morale.

A country can conquer land that is legally its or not, and with or without diplomatic support from other countries. But the fact on the ground is that very success or failure of conquest, which is the part that I've repeatedly emphasized. The question is ultimately whether world leaders believe the comparison is suitable. I'm confident many do, because observers have no reason to link or restrict the lessons of that war to the quality of some legal justification. That sounds naive. Azerbaijan didn't accomplish what it did by the exercise of law.

So, Putin has spoken and governed as a nationalist his entire career, exalted the Russian Empire and Russian Soviet power, derided Ukrainian autonomy, spent a lot of political and economic resources on trying to suppress it, and finally declared - in his capacity as autocrat - a very likely ruinous (to all sides) European ground war, Europe's and Russia's biggest offensive since the advance against Berlin in 1945, on the stated premise that Russia cannot allow the existence of a divergent Ukraine as a matter of national pride, propriety, and security. Your reaction to this is that you have no idea why he's invading, but that his stated reasons have nothing to do with the truth? C'mon man.

Though separately on the future of the Azeri-Armenian conflict as such, reading this analysis leaves me discouraged. Almost 100 killed counted since the Nov 2020 ceasefire in border clashes, compared to fewer than 200 from 2015 to the 2020 war (excluding 2 – 11 April 2016), though this year has been quiet.


Audio supposedly from the island battle Crandar mentions. All 13 defenders were killed. I'm assuming it was a volunteer assignment.

"We are a Russian ship, lay down your arms."
"Russian ship, go yourself."

The senselessness of war.

[spmetla]

Live maps of the military dispositions have begun coming out for what they're worth, this one from militaryland dot net. I think an earlier version displaying just the starting deployments supports the impression that Ukraine planned to largely abandon the NE, with something like 3 brigades for the whole area compared to 9 or 10 around Donbas.

I've been using a different one but seems to be tracking similiarly:
https://liveuamap.com/

As for the NE, when you look at it with the river to the East and then the heavy Russian force at Karkiv it turns into a pocket that could get cut off. A shorter line of defense instead of a no step back approach makes sense against a superior force, especially considering that's what Manstein had to do in almost the same area after Stalingrad was lost.

The Russian loss of that VDV helicopter Battalion (this is just an estimate) at Gostomel airport is certainly a tremendous set back. Like market garden it may not change the course of the war but certainly let the enemy know you're still a potent fighting force.

Supposedly a heck of an air battle/air defense over Kiev tonight, can only wonder what's happening. The 'Ghost of Kiev' rumor about some lone Ukrainian pilot becoming an overnight Ace are unproven just yet but who knows. The rumors of it though are the type of thing that oddly enough help the nerves of the guys on the ground.

Audio supposedly from the island battle Crandar mentions. All 13 defenders were killed. I'm assuming it was a volunteer assignment.

"We are a Russian ship, lay down your arms."
"Russian ship, go yourself."

The senselessness of war.

Followed that too, truly horrible for those that died there. A sensless death but heroic none the less, especially in our 'european culture' which has always admired doomed last stands from Thermopylae to the Alamo and beyond.

So, Putin has spoken and governed as a nationalist his entire career, exalted the Russian Empire and Russian Soviet power, derided Ukrainian autonomy, spent a lot of political and economic resources on trying to suppress it, and finally declared - in his capacity as autocrat - a very likely ruinous (to all sides) European ground war, Europe's and Russia's biggest offensive since the advance against Berlin in 1945, on the stated premise that Russia cannot allow the existence of a divergent Ukraine as a matter of national pride, propriety, and security. Your reaction to this is that you have no idea why he's invading, but that his stated reasons have nothing to do with the truth? C'mon man.

Following the squashed protests today around Russia though I'm glad to see not all there have bought into his nationalist view. Though they won't change the outcome perhaps the economic pressures, internal domestic pressures, the oligarch pressures, and if this war goes on long and poorly the military pressures can do something to oust him for someone saner.
The next few days will continue to be interesting, Russia's full might hasn't come to bear yet though the initial assaults have not proven easy.

The question is ultimately whether world leaders believe the comparison is suitable. I'm confident many do, because observers have no reason to link or restrict the lessons of that war to the quality of some legal justification. That sounds naive. Azerbaijan didn't accomplish what it did by the exercise of law.

I think the only thing different in the Azeri example is that it was a limited war over territorial claims, a peace deal with the Armenians was an option. The wars of regime change like in Iraq or now in Ukraine leave no one to make peace with, this one being tied with territorial claims though makes it even more difficult.
The Azeri war certainly showed force can change borders with conventional arms. Iraq tried it with Iran and then with Kuwait both with failed results but had they succeeded it would have changed the status quo for sure, no such sanctions happened to the Azeris, no such outcry but then they are more western aligned and the territory in question was de jure theirs though ethnically and defacto Armenian. Another population change (ethnic cleansing/evictions) there will make the change permanent.

[Montmorency]

Announcement from Germany:

Inspector of the Army this morning on LinkedIn: "The Bundeswehr, the army that I am allowed to lead, is more or less empty. The options that we can offer politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited."

On Linkedin lmao

I've been using a different one but seems to be tracking similiarly:
https://liveuamap.com/

I use it too, for the sidebar updates, but so far it's not satisfying in regard to mapping the advance. Though civvies have almost no truly reliable ways of doing so, I still like to see the ballpark. For now I'm thinking of comparing the conservative Militaryland map against this fascist Russian channel's probably-optimistic operational analysis . Not that I blithely embrace the simple nostrum of the truth lying in between, but...

As for the NE, when you look at it with the river to the East and then the heavy Russian force at Karkiv it turns into a pocket that could get cut off. A shorter line of defense instead of a no step back approach makes sense against a superior force, especially considering that's what Manstein had to do in almost the same area after Stalingrad was lost.

It just seems like the best area in Eastern Ukraine to have a hedgehog defense with small units. I don't know what's done what, but at least some of the donated Javelins/NLAWS appear to be proving their effect; plenty of forested roads and villages from which to heroically blast apart armored columns. Especially considering that... 9-10 UA brigades are in serious jeopardy of being cut off between opposition and the Dnieper within the next 24 hours, that is, the forces deployed along the Donbas front. That army is being outflanked from north and south and oversees the very worst terrain for defense in depth. Am I crazy or...???

Supposedly a heck of an air battle/air defense over Kiev tonight, can only wonder what's happening. The 'Ghost of Kiev' rumor about some lone Ukrainian pilot becoming an overnight Ace are unproven just yet but who knows.

Is that precedented? It would have to be, like, an Su-27 with a full 6-missile A2A loadout hitting every shot, or else anachronistic WW2-style dogfighting. The other fighters Ukraine fields only have 4 A2A mounts from quick reference.

Following the squashed protests today around Russia though I'm glad to see not all there have bought into his nationalist view.

Well, we had bigger protests against the Iraq War, and they didn't change anything. Somehow we have to get the picture across to the Russian people, and the elites, backed up with action, that maximal economic terrorism against Russia will persist even if and when Putin conquers Ukraine. I'm not going to say the only acceptable offramp is regime change in the Kremlin, since we should be willing to accept peace from a chagrined Putin retreating his forces, but then he might face regime change anyway (and so would never back down while still in power). But that's the principle of the thing, which is what we should try to communicate. On-target messaging, economic devastation, and heavy casualties are the only plausible effective combination.

The Azeri war certainly showed force can change borders with conventional arms. Iraq tried it with Iran and then with Kuwait both with failed results but had they succeeded it would have changed the status quo for sure, no such sanctions happened to the Azeris, no such outcry but then they are more western aligned and the territory in question was de jure theirs though ethnically and defacto Armenian. Another population change (ethnic cleansing/evictions) there will make the change permanent.

I could be wrong, but I thought the Armenian-occupied areas outside NK/A were still basically unsettled by civilians following the cleansing of the original post-Soviet war, on account of the constant danger and according to some kind of diplomatic agreement. And also that Armenia doesn't have a lot of excess Volk to export, being the size of Connecticut. One of the reasons the Azeri victory seemed so clean as to be an example to those who want to draw inspiration from such things.

For example, this former town of 7000 Azeris before the 1990s war had only hundreds in Armenian population when retaken in 2020.

Not to say that there weren't crimes against civilians when the Azeris encountered them, but compared to most other global flashpoints there aren't that many civilians around through much of the combat area.

[Montmorency]

Actually, LiveUA added some frontline movements. Side-by-side.



I suppose the consensus is that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Melitopol are cut off if not surrounded.


Also, interesting, if this somehow doesn't fall afoul of sanctions then NATO really needs to up its game fast.

As Ukraine crisis deepens, China lifts all wheat-import restrictions on Russia
Agreement reflects deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow while addressing China’s need to enhance food security
China could provide a lifeline to Russia’s economy after the United States and its allies imposed swift economic sanctions on Moscow this week

Although the majority of Russia's wheat export goes to Turkey and Egypt.

[Kagemusha]

Apparently Russian armoured spearhead has reached periphery of Kiev from North and West linking with the Airborne at Hostomel airport. Some infiltrating Russian military units have already been detected and neutralized already inside the city, but i predict the Battle of Kiev is about to happen.
One observation is that there seems to be thousands strong Chechen Rosvgardia unit somewhere at Northern border of Ukraine and Belarus. I hope Putin is not sending them to Kiev, which might spell massacre.



https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/sta...546240/photo/1

[spmetla]

Russia Issues Ominous Warning to Finland, Sweden Should They Join NATO
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-thre...vasion-1682715

"Finland and Sweden should not base their security damaging the security of other countries," Zakharova said during the press conference.
"Clearly [the] accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which is first and foremost a military alliance, would have serious military-political repercussions that would demand a response from our country," she said.

This comes after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the country was receiving support from both nations.

Not surprising but also exactly why this invasion is so self-defeating in that it is strengthening NATO and giving it purpose again while also demonstrating in the strongest possible way the importance of having allies if you dare to have an opinion that differs from your superpower neighbor.

Meanwhile in the Black Sea the potential for escalation despite Russian dominance of the sea is there in the strike on a Turkish owned ship, a Moldavian ship, and a Japanese ship too. This will give a lot of pressure on the Turks to consider closing the straits for more Russia ships into the Black Sea.

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkis...ty-2022-02-24/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...opean-26329832
https://splash247.com/two-more-ships...the-black-sea/

Apparently Russian armoured spearhead has reached periphery of Kiev from North and West linking with the Airborne at Hostomel airport. Some infiltrating Russian military units have already been detected and neutralized already inside the city, but i predict the Battle of Kiev is about to happen.

I've been watching that penetration too, given the tough resistance that the Ukrainians have put up elsewhere I expect this will be a hell of a hard slog for the Russians. Their sorta ownership of the air will make it hard for Ukraine to redeploy heavy units to contain this pocket but a mix of light and medium forces operating in the suburbs of a major city is difficult for any army to fight against.
I imagine though that supplies of ATGMs and Stingers are running low though their prevalence throughout the country as denied the Russians the ability to rely on low flying close support from gunships and CAS.

I hope that Taiwan takes note of the above and sees that they need high- and low-end capability to have an effect defense as Montmorency has advocated.

[Kagemusha]

I've been watching that penetration too, given the tough resistance that the Ukrainians have put up elsewhere I expect this will be a hell of a hard slog for the Russians. Their sorta ownership of the air will make it hard for Ukraine to redeploy heavy units to contain this pocket but a mix of light and medium forces operating in the suburbs of a major city is difficult for any army to fight against.
I imagine though that supplies of ATGMs and Stingers are running low though their prevalence throughout the country as denied the Russians the ability to rely on low flying close support from gunships and CAS.

I hope that Taiwan takes note of the above and sees that they need high- and low-end capability to have an effect defense as Montmorency has advocated.

It seems Ukrainians are digging in at Kiev and i sincerely hope Russians will get bogged down there. Each day the Ukrainians can hold there can have a huge impact on this whole conflict. What is needed now is something that would act as a rally point. Never mind that this whole thing is an human catastrophe in huge scale and what Ukrainians are experiencing right now is inexcusable by any rhetoric from the Russians. What West needs to do is to keep the handheld Anti Tank and Anti Air capacity flowing into Ukraine by any means necessary. Worst enough being left alone to fight. The Ukrainians should never run out of ordinance to fight with. I sure hope the best for them in this God Awful mess this situation is.

[Pannonian]

There are some noises from China about respecting Ukrainian sovereignty. It remains to be seen if they will fully turn against Russia, and if Russia will continue without at least tacit Chinese tolerance. Threatening to bring the whole economic system down and bring the Chinese down with us may be the most effective way the west can contribute.

[Kagemusha]

It seems that the Russians are right now trying to take down the power plant of Kiev. Im worried that this might turn really ugly this very night.

Concerning China. I am kinda worried that China has made some sort of deal with Russia maybe in part of Shanghai 5. If Europe stops buying the Russian Oil and Gas the only market large enough to do so left is Asia.

[Furunculus]

china says it supports ukranian sovereignty, but encourages dialogue to address russian security concerns.

they're fully behind russia.

[Montmorency]

My apologies, the Mig-29 - the model of plane said to be flown by the Ghost of Kyiv - can carry 6 A2A missiles. The story is theoretically possible, though not feasible outside a videogame. Are there any Ukrainian planes still flying beyond Kiev?

So it seems over the past 20 hours Sumy fell, Hostomel was recaptured by Russia, and all the major contact point cities from yesterday are being reduced. Yet DoD reportedly considers this a slower advance than expected?

Russia announces intent to stage talks. An indicator that they won't advance past the Bug? I.e. a looming partition of Ukraine. Also may be an attempt to preempt or defuse sanctions not yet applied.

I'm unsure of whether Zelensky is right to remain the capital. In light of the Russian announcement that they intend to kill him, I wonder if he believes martyring himself will galvanize future resistance. Even his buddy Kiev Mayor Klitschko, and former Pres. Poroshenko, are in Kiev, though they claim intent to personally resist with arms. You can find a news clip interviewing Poroshenko as he gets choked up with his militia behind him.

The Militaryland team apparently has people on the ground; some of the videos on their Twitter are original content driving around the highways of Ukraine.

In general, a lot of OC video clips are locked behind the social media platform Telegram, if you want to venture to those channels.

Apparently Russian armoured spearhead has reached periphery of Kiev from North and West linking with the Airborne at Hostomel airport. Some infiltrating Russian military units have already been detected and neutralized already inside the city, but i predict the Battle of Kiev is about to happen.
One observation is that there seems to be thousands strong Chechen Rosvgardia unit somewhere at Northern border of Ukraine and Belarus. I hope Putin is not sending them to Kiev, which might spell massacre.

https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/sta...546240/photo/1

ngl big Isengard vibes.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...79295726411779 [video]

[Furunculus]

important update from Germany:

https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497230857207263239

Germany‘s 5000 helmets are finally on their way in two trucks. They will be given to the Ukrainian authorities outside their country, in order to avoid any risk for the German side, according to @dpa

interesting view on what success looks like from the daddy or british IR:

https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckle...utm_source=url

[Kagemusha]

How i see it. Once the assault on Kyev starts. Longer the Kiovan can stand the initial assault more hard it will become for Russians to take the city. I am hoping for it to become "Stalingrad" for Putin, but to be honest when i am looking at the childlike faces of the Ukrainian conscripts and compare those to the hardened Russian veterans and even more so to beasts like these Kadyrovs Chechen Mountainers. I worry, but i believe miracles can and will happen. One should never underestimate men or women defending their homes, families and their freedom. Never underestimate that.