Great Power contentions

[Shaka_Khan]

As I expected, the Ukrainian situation is different from Afghanistan. The longer this war drags on, Putin's popularity in Russia will decline further. And I think the Ukrainians not falling as quickly as Afghanistan did will encourage NATO to support Ukraine more, perhaps by supplying more weapons. Hopefully, this would discourage China from invading Taiwan.

[Montmorency]

Interesting assessment from D1:

Day 1 of Combat ��, Takeaways from available information:

1.Russians broke with their own doctrine of relying on heavy, concentrated support fires.
2.Failure to prepare the operational area with adequate preparatory fire to break up and destroy Ukrainian defenses was a critical hinderance
3.Russians allowed themselves to dilute their own strength by advancing (and dividing their forces & fires) along 4 axis of advance. None were capable of achieving their objectives as a result.
4.Insufficiently supported troops failed to achieve necessary tactical breakthroughs with strategic implications for the battlespace
5.Airborne/Air Assault forces cannot operate well against even a semi-intact air defense network, or in contested airspace.
6.Airborne/Air Assault insertions against superior local forces are an expensive waste of highly trained manpower.
7.Commando actions ala Joachim Piper in the Ardennes 1944, in Kyiv, did not achieve much success. Commando infiltration of Kyiv a major success prior to operations – massive Ukrainian security failure.
8.Russian morale is lower than expected. Some units appear to have anticipated being met with grateful Ukrainian crowds instead of stiff opposition.
9.Leadership at the Platoon, Company & Battalion level highly questionable in some units based on behavior.
10.Russian troops are ‘green’ overall, noticeable reluctance to dismount APCs/IFVs and provide infantry screen for the armor when in contact. Heavy resulting casualties vs man portablt anti-tank weapons
11.Overall battleplan’s basic assumptions on opposition levels and Russian capability fundamentally flawed. Command & Control rigid and inflexible.
12.Ukrainians delayed mobilization far too long. Decision not to hold on the Dnieper politically more viable than abandoning East Ukraine, but possibly a critical strategic failure militarily

I did notice from the many OC clips that there didn't appear to be much aerial bombardment or heavy artillery barrage going on, but I figured it was just availability/survivor bias (usually civilian filmers).

And:

Ukrainian Forces downed Russian IL-76 near Vasylkiv with paratroops on board - Chief Commander of Ukrainian Armed Forces

Ukrainian army repelling airborne troops assault at Vasylkiv airbase: Il-76 and 2 helicopters shotdown

Yes, it may be the case that Putin blundered into an overly-speedy plan (seize Kyiv w/in 24 hours?) that poetically damaged his army's initiative. Maybe that's what DoD was commenting on. Russia has a whole doctrine that ought to oviate the problems of rushing forward (develop the joke) mechanized and airborne elements. But I still wonder if Ukrainian late mobilization, and whatever it is I don't understand about their concentration ahead of an obvious pincer attack zone, isn't a relatively greater miscalculation.

At any rate, the quoted fellow has a site providing daily operational analysis of the war, so a good complement to the Russian fascist Youtuber. I appreciate the professional format and citations. (From 10PM Moscow time)

Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly active in downtown Kyiv.
Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops, which have temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it.
Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24.
Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.

1) Belarus/Kyiv axis: Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. They have abandoned for now the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it. Elements of the 76thVDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.

2) Kharkiv axis: Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24. Russian forces are now advancing on a broad front along the northeastern Ukrainian border as of February 25.

3) Donbas axis: Russian forces have achieved little success on the frontal assaults or the envelopment but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east. The Russians have not weighted their ground offensive efforts toward breaking through Ukrainian defensive positions on the line of contact, taking Mariupol from the east, or driving rapidly through Luhansk Oblast to the north. Ukrainian forces remain largely in their original defensive positions in the east. The Russians may be content to leave them there while concentrating on capturing Kyiv and imposing a new government on Ukraine. They may alternatively seek to envelop and destroy Ukrainian forces at and near the line of contact at a later date.

Crimea axis: Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.

Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.
Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.

I think I'm going to settle more into seeking daily or bi-daily situation updates from here on.


With Russia going in for florid fascism, I fear Youtube will start blocking the Soviet music as well.

How i see it. Once the assault on Kyev starts. Longer the Kiovan can stand the initial assault more hard it will become for Russians to take the city. I am hoping for it to become "Stalingrad" for Putin, but to be honest when i am looking at the childlike faces of the Ukrainian conscripts and compare those to the hardened Russian veterans and even more so to beasts like these Kadyrovs Chechen Mountainers. I worry, but i believe miracles can and will happen. One should never underestimate men or women defending their homes, families and their freedom. Never underestimate that.

Freedom Fighters, 2004 (Xbox): "The game is set in an alternate history where the Soviet Union has invaded and occupied New York City. The player takes the role of Christopher Stone, a plumber turned resistance movement leader, fighting against the invaders."

Petro Poroshenko is not the player character we deserve, but he is the one we need.

[Kagemusha]

Apparently another Air assault operation has started at Vasylkiv South of Kiev. Apparently paratroopers. I guess the Russians are trying to cut off Kiev from third side now.

Clashes near the city center and at the power plant. It is bit over 3am at Kiev. I think this is it.The major assault is starting.

[Montmorency]

Operations Room is a nice animated AAR channel, but relevant for just publishing a video on how the Serbians shot down the only F-117 (stealth strike fighter) ever lost in combat.



It was mostly luck that an SA-3 could down such an advanced aircraft, but the incident was enabled by command getting overconfident and starting to fly sorties without anti-SAM escort craft.

Puts me in mind of the transport planes and helicopters reportedly shot down over various parts of Ukraine lately.

[Shaka_Khan]

I heard a lot of gunfire via one of the live streams. I don't know which one because this YouTube channel (WacMilk) is showing multiple cities. It seems to be Kiev/Kyiv, but the source's audio is low, whereas this one is louder.

[Kagemusha]

New dawn rises and Kiev still firmly in Ukrainian control. US has apparently offered evacuation for the Ukrainian president and his answer was on a video released this morning: "I dont need a ride.I need more ammunition."

[Kagemusha]

[Shaka_Khan]

Although Zelenskyy and Poroshenko were political opponents, they are now united against the invasion.

[Crandar]

Followed that too, truly horrible for those that died there. A sensless death but heroic none the less, especially in our 'european culture' which has always admired doomed last stands from Thermopylae to the Alamo and beyond.

On a slightly positive note, they may have actually surrendered, so there's still hope that the garrison (or at least a major part of it) survived. Fog of war is especially prevalent in the early stages of the conflict, so anything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, especially the most emotional stories.

EDIT: More confirmation from the ministry.

[Kagemusha]

Gotta hand it to the Ukrainians. Looking at the resolve of this people while they brace again for the coming night. Is unbelievable They are pretty much arming every one from 16 year old nerd boys to 60 year old Grandmothers, while the afternoon has been very slow in way of fighting near the capital, as if the Russians are also drawing breath and concentrating their forces for i believe even lot more harsh assault then yesterday. But the Ukrainians seem to be ready. I hope them strength to get through this night. My thoughts and prayers go with them.

[Kagemusha]

Kadyrov´s Chechen forces spotted apparently at Gostomel airport NorthWest from Kiev.

Heavy artillery fire broken out at Kharkov. Havent heard such intensity before during this conflict: https://twitter.com/i/status/1497624137891827716

[Montmorency]

The Russians were really reckless to commit VDV to contested insertions. It is reported that Putin ordered a 12-hour pause to consolidate the advance on the southern front overnight (and/or give the Ukrainian government time to come to terms).

EDIT: According to the Russian YTer the Ukrainian Donbas front is starting to perform a fighting retreat in the direction of Dnipro. Any confirmation?

[Furunculus]

Kadyrov´s Chechen forces spotted apparently at Gostomel airport NorthWest from Kiev.

Heavy artillery fire broken out at Kharkov. Havent heard such intensity before during this conflict: https://twitter.com/i/status/1497624137891827716

looking hella' sexy tho while they rape and pillage through the daily chores:

https://twitter.com/ritafloresss/sta...41417568194562

[Montmorency]

Can't be understated how valuable having Trump out of office is right now. EU resolve would have been nonexistant, and the Ukrainians would be worse-equipped and demoralized with him in the White House congratulating Putin on Russia's strength.

What a somber situation this all is. In 2013, the Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian people, were closer than ever before in history. I'm not one to celebrate "Slavic brotherhood", but it's just so sad that these friendly peer ethnicities have had so much generational - it will last decades - animosity enflamed between them by a few fuckers. All the WW2-era good will, all the propaganda of Soviet heroism (spotted as it was) is now erased by the pure obscenity of irredeemable imperial ambition. Only the Russian people can put this right, if they come around to it. Whatever the United States lost in spirit with the Iraq War pales against this wholly predatory breach against the most dearly-won peace of all history. But there is still time to step down before exceeding what America inflicted in lost life, limb, property. Though so far the Russian invasion is much less brutal than the routine power struggles and ethnic conflicts of Africa and the Middle East that we in the West look down upon, the infamy Putin is accruing is colossal.

This is the battlefield that can arrest the global march of irredentism and fascism, if even for a reprieve of the sort that the collapse of IS afforded against Islamic extremism. Russia needs to get fucked in every way it can be, for the good of us all.


Russia opened the offensive lighter than expected in both manpower and firepower, hoping for a quick Ukrainian collapse by appearances. Even Sumy may still be in Ukrainian hands after heavy back-and-forth fighting yesterday.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/stat...19903514308612 [VIDEO]

Russia still hasn't established air supremacy. Someone up top seriously thought they could just rush a bunch of cities with APCs and break through into the interior. Pushing mech infantry through urban concentrations with low support is not good doctrine, and it is not Russian doctrine.

Now that they recognized the error of underestimating Ukraine, Russian armor and heavy artillery is making more of an appearance. Civilians will suffer more as a result.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497668438789132294 [VIDEO]



https://twitter.com/michaelh992/stat...72098876469249 [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...61156457426946 [VIDEO]


Good thing most people have evacuated their homes in Kiev, etc.


According to this, the head of the German foreign intelligence service had such low confidence in a Russian invasion that he was trapped in Kiev by the outbreak of hostilities. Oh Germany. When you put this against the German army chief inspector announcing that his branch is but a shell with few capabilities, it is pretty lulzy.

But the situation has turned against Putin to the extent that Germany is now donating a large quantity of AT/AA platforms. The EU opponents of maximal sanctions such as SWIFT are also being brought on board. The longer Ukraine can hold out the less tenable the invasion becomes. If Putin wants to advance through the western uplands to occupy the whole country, not just the east (which can be accomplished within the coming days really), then he won't just have an insurgency on his hands - he'll have a fully mobilized and entrenched Ukrainian regular army to break. With partisan activity ongoing in his immediate rear.

The Russian military’s main effort remains seizing Kyiv in an effort to force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 11am local time February 26 [15 hours ago] that Ukrainian forces halted 14 Russian BTGs northeast of Kyiv and that Russia has committed its northern reserves – an additional 17 BTGs – along this operational direction.[9]
If the Russians have abandoned for now the attempt to encircle Kyiv and committed to frontal assaults from the northwest and east/northeast, then the Ukrainians would be in close to the optimal scenario for defending their capital. The Russians could change that situation either by getting forces from the northeast axis across the river south of Kyiv and encircling in that way, by using forces from Crimea to drive all the way to Kyiv from the south, or by re-attempting and finally succeeding in airlanding airborne troops to the southeast of the capital. Russia’s surprising failure to accomplish its initial planned objectives around Kyiv has given the Ukrainians an opportunity.
[...]
Russian forces entered downtown Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro River the night of February 25. Urban combat continued the night of February 25-26.[10] Only lighter Russian units – VDV (Airborne) and Special Forces – have entered Kyiv as of 7pm local time on February 26.[11] Russian forces have not yet committed heavy armor and artillery to urban fighting in Kyiv.

If, somehow, a popular revolt against Lukashenko disrupted that territory as a logistical zone for the Russian military, there's even a small chance they can be stopped outright. Professionalization clearly doesn't count for as much as Putin hoped in an unpopular war of choice.

There is the following very provocative rumor going around, any insight?

We are checking the information that in Russia’s Belgorod 5,000 soldiers staged a riot and refused to go to fight with Ukraine; the report is coming from Obozrevatel and local media.

[Kagemusha]

Kiev still standing at Dawn. Though Russians might be n the early shift this morning around 500 russian armoured vehicles spotted moving towards Kiev from three different directions. Still in a urban fight.It is the infantry that prevails and it seems everyone in Kiev is infantry today.

[Kagemusha]

Russians penetrated into Kharkov.

[Montmorency]

The Ruskie fascist is absolutely outraged that Sumy has fallen back into Ukrainian hands. He claims it's all the work of bloodthirsty criminals calling themselves "territorial militia." Love to see the smug bastard so butthurt for once.

Now, here I should point out one of the pitfalls of realtime observation of a dynamic modern war is that "taking" a city doesn't mean what it used to. So many cities, from Melitopol to Sumy, have already changed hands multiple times, contributing to the confusion of observers and those on the ground alike. But this ought to have been expected when the forces available for fighting in and around in any city at a given time are numbered in the hundreds or low thousands. Somebody rolls in on a BTR, that side can now claim to 'hold' that neighborhood, at least until they drive away again. Dissociated elements of regular units reappearing, and sporadic militia activity, complicate the picture further.

One of the biggest problems with the fascist's overgenerous maps is that he assigns Russian control to any territory that may have had Russian reconnaisance passing through. Compare then to the Wikipedia ("2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine") map, which I am now relying on as my standard.




Now, objectively, much of this territory is not actually contested or defended by either side, in which case it should be counted by default as Ukrainian, no-man's-land, or at best graphically symbolized in a distinct way from Russian axes of advance or garrisons, if it is known that the area was last cleared by Russian forces.

I suspect Melitopol may be in Russian hands for good though.



Anyway, some memes:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Kagemusha]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497823126918508550

[spmetla]

Amazing to see how well Ukraine is holding, the initial day's actions seem to have galvanized the fighting spirit of the country. I can only hope that they can keep it up.
For the Russians, considering their front-line troops will now have been in various stages of high intensity combat for about 48 hours. Logistics for food, water, ammo, fuel, and medical supplies will need to be constantly topped off. Units that have taken casualties, even if just lots of WIA will need replacements, and most importantly those front-line troops will start to see the effects of sleep deprivation and poor rest from frontline conditions. This together with the morale hit from the slower than expected progress has got to be affecting their Soldiers' performance. Anger, frustration, and mistakes will be made, especially if asked to do unreasonable things without resources. I can imagine those units currently in the fight can probably go another day before they need an 'operational pause' just to get some shut eye besides everything else.
Granted the Ukranian defenders will have the same issues but the morale of the defenders knowing that their efforts are so far successful and considered above and beyond expectations will certainly keep it higher than the attackers for now. I can only hope that they can keep up the fight, those isolated cities in and positions might have food and water stores, but ammo and medical supplies go quickly.

If the Ukrainians keep this up for a few more days I wonder how much the Russian command system can take of shoving troops in the meat grinder. Especially, as this Spartan effort is rallying the world to do things that were off the table like the Germans supply weapons, and the Europeans on board with Swift sanctions.
Zelensky being a King Leonidas is quite something, he has stepped up, certainly a man of the year.

[Montmorency]

Operational thoughts:

4/Thirdly battalion tactical groups are terrible units to support operations. They have overload the commander lack support and might not properly integrate with air or do adeqaute scouting as signals and recon are missing along with liasons with them.

9/What people sa wasn't that troops packed spare tanks for long drives. They were carying their fuel reserves on them. The few organic refueling trucks were not enough to make up an actual reserve or depot. They had one full compliment, some spares in one truck , thats it.
10/This didn't seem that crazy in the Kremlin because the prevailing thought in the higher echelons and Putin's inner circle and the FSB was one highly dismissive of Ukraine highly hyped up by Russian army propaganda reporting. They missed that they were buying their own bullshit
11/The release of the information paralyzed them in terms of decision making. But the inherent bias remained and UA delayed mobilising so it didn't dissuade them. For 7 days they ate away supplies rather than actively trying to build them further, they were waiting a go order.
12/The limited supply meant it had to be a mad dash. BTGs were split into smaller sub units traveling on multiple roads to avoid congestion. When they met something they'd wait to coalesce or get into a fight. If the UA was suprised it would work.
13/Were the Ru troops quality ones they'd do better with just surprise on their side. But they were mostly poorly trained as full units were never called up before. Usually a brigade would send only a company and could hand pick.
14/Now it's either confess the lies about readiness or be creative. Because the corruption had created such a rot, brigade commandes chose "creative" (criminal), conscripts were added to the build up. Ghosts soldiers on the roster were hidden. That meant BTGs were far greener.
15/When these hit a city or made contact they'd deploy in unideal formations of platoon to company size. Not their fault all that much, this is what they knew. Then if a UA unit knew in advance where they were and was careful, it would anihilate the BTG splinter formation.
16/Because the timetable had to be kept, supplies were already short with the delay Ru troops would go a step further. They'd keep one sub unit to block and redirect subsequent units, the rest would continue on parallel roads. Again timetable meant usually more major roads.
17/After a couple of road blocks, BTG'd be diluted, lost a bunch of units and fighting to standstill. You'd expect that there would be air or artiller support. But BTGs aren't suited for that, when they move in chunks in parallel the artillery spotters could be in another group.

25/So the air assault fails, part of the pincer moves fail, you can't budge most of the UA troops what do you do? You go for broke, hope you win the race between entrechment in Kyiv and you just throwing all you have and hope if you decapitate UA, regional commands lose faith.
26/Otherwise becuase what remains of your force is split in small groups moving on main roads UA can mobilize move via back roads and just recapture most of the towns as you have few troops for actual 24/7 duties and to even spot them moving back into the town.
27/Can it work? I don't know. Is it a good plan. Hell no. Could they execute anything else, without the entire structure confessing the army has corruption,which yes the boss expected, but it's such a rot it might cost him his throne, yeah not when he's in this mood.
28/ So the spineless bunch decided to throw away 18-19 year old conscripts and veterans and pray they get lucky. Also that Putin hasn't noticed how nuts this is shows that he's either delusional or is completely inept when it comes to military affairs.
PS/ A lot of the commentary prior missed the readiness of the Russian forces and the poor state of affairs. Overreliance on official statements and major military pages missed tons of low level testimonials and regional investigative pieces on how big the rot was.

If true, thank goodness. You love to see corrupt police states implode.

Now for bad news.

There's lot of chatter and purported leaks on silovik telegram channels that the General Staff has instructed that Kyiv be taken by Monday, and has overridden the objection of the Airborne forces who think this can only be done at a huge cost of lives.

As a rule I wouldn't trust any of these channels but the info tracks with other info from Kremlin insiders, and it makes sense given what we know of Putin's plans, needs and obsessions. And in this context the surge we see/expect makes sense.

Marco Rubio @Marcorubio

#Russian military leaders should think very carefully before following the orders they recently received

#Putin is 2 years shy of the life expectancy of a Russian male
and you will spend the rest of your lives evading an international tribunal for committing his crimes

Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba

Russian propaganda has gone off the rails and speculates Ukraine might be preparing to drop a ‘dirty bomb’ on the Russian territory. This is a sick fake. Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, doesn’t conduct any work to create/acquire them. We are a responsible member of the NPT.

If the Ukrainians keep this up for a few more days I wonder how much the Russian command system can take of shoving troops in the meat grinder. Especially, as this Spartan effort is rallying the world to do things that were off the table like the Germans supply weapons, and the Europeans on board with Swift sanctions.
Zelensky being a King Leonidas is quite something, he has stepped up, certainly a man of the year.

It took a Saratoga for the French to aid the Americans.

[Kagemusha]

Russians looting at Kharkiv. Are these bois hungry? Is the discipline faltering?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1497854775169327109

EDIT: Apparently Russian attack defeated at Kharkov and they are retreating out of the city.

[Pannonian]

March on Kyiv hides Putin’s real aim: Bolton

[Montmorency]

The largest plane in the world, Ukraine's An-225, was destroyed in hangar. I never knew it existed.

German Chancellor Scholz pledges to bump the defense budget up by 50%, build two LNG terminals, and contribute forces to NATO posture in the east. Reichtangle activated.

Mariupol outflanked by amphibious landing. Kharkiv and Sumy still friendly.

The fascist complains that in the besieged cities Ukrainians are starting to form self-defense militias, in his contention not against Russians but against all the marauders and criminals who have emptied out Ukrainian armories and wander the streets menacingly. Lawless uparmed locals are now harassing and violating citizens, whom the fascist government categorizes as saboteurs, even as they themselves demolish Ukrainian bridges and infrastructure.

I don't know advanced Russian vulgarism well, but let's try shtob za yebal'sa.

[Montmorency]

Just what we were looking for. I had hoped this group, whom I linked to many months ago wrt the Azeri-Armenian war, had begun confirming and compiling equipment losses in the Ukraine war. As before, each item is associated with photovisual corroboration. So far...

Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Russia

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Tanks (17, of which destroyed: 6, damaged: 1, abandoned: 5, captured: 5)

Armoured Fighting Vehicles (16, of which destroyed: 5, abandoned: 1, captured: 9)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles (24, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 9, captured: 7)

Armoured Personnel Carriers (7, of which destroyed: 4, captured: 2)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles (19, of which destroyed: 10, damaged: 1, abandoned: 1, captured: 7)
[these are basically just trucks]

Communications Vehicles (2, of which abandoned: 1, captured: 1)

Engineering Vehicles (15, of which destroyed: 6, captured: 9)

Anti-tank Guided Missiles (4, of which captured: 4)

2 120mm mortar: (1, captured) (2, captured)

[152mm howitzer] (4, of which destroyed: 2, captured: 2)

[122mm BM-21 'Grad'] (7, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 4)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (8, of which destroyed: 5, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2)

Aircraft (3, of which destroyed: 3)

Helicopters (3, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (82, of which destroyed: 47, damaged: 2, abandoned: 15, captured: 18)

Ukraine

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[T-64BV] (12, of which destroyed: 5, abandoned: 7)

Armoured Fighting Vehicles (15, of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 11, captured: 1)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles (16, of which destroyed 6, abandoned: 6, captured: 3)

Armoured Personnel Carriers (3, of which abandoned: 2, captured: 1)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles (5, of which destroyed: 2, captured: 3)

[NLAW] (7, of which captured: 7)

2 9K310 Igla-1 [MANPAD]: (1 and 2, captured)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (4, of which destroyed: 4)

[152mm howitzer] (2, of which abandoned: 2)

122mm 2S1 Gvozdika [SPG]: (2, of which captured: 2)

Radars (5, of which destroyed: 3, damaged: 2)

Aircraft (5, of which destroyed: 5)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (35, of which destroyed: 15, damaged: 2, abandoned: 5, captured: 13)

[Shaka_Khan]

If what these Russian POWs said is true then Putin made multiple major wrong moves.

[Sarmatian]

Ah, a trip down the memory lane. Not like it used to be, but still miles ahead of typical internet discussion about the topic. Hope you're doing well guys.

[Montmorency]

Maps are starting to diverge more on the axes of advance, for instance on how close to Kiev the Russians are in Chernihiv oblast, and the direction of the advance on Pryluky. Mariupol can be considered encircled.

What I don't understand is, why - despite these unexpected days' reprieve - Ukrainian command hasn't pulled back their 10+ Donbass brigades from the line of contact toward Dnipro at the central Dnieper. Or if they have, I haven't heard about a confirmed substantial movement. Most maps indicate Russian probing actions toward Zaporizhzhia already (the provincial capital south of Dnipro), breakthroughs in Luhansk toward Starobilsk, Krupiansk, and Lysychansk. Russian air support will inevitably step up. Very soon it WILL be too late to avoid being outflanked. It may already be too late to withdraw the bulk of so many troops (low tens thousands?) along a few highways. It has to start tonight. Does no one have any insight on why the Ukrainians have allowed this concentration to remain pinned in the Donbas?

It's understandable if there's a last stand action at Mariupol, but this kind of force would be so much more useful in central Ukraine west of the Dnieper than liquidated by rear echelons at leisure.

[Montmorency]

Japan might request the local basing of American nuclear warheads, which... unless they're for Japan's autonomous disposition, I like to think we definitively learned falls in the 'bad idea' category almost exactly 60 years ago.

[spmetla]

What I don't understand is, why - despite these unexpected days' reprieve - Ukrainian command hasn't pulled back their 10+ Donbass brigades from the line of contact toward Dnipro at the central Dnieper. Or if they have, I haven't heard about a confirmed substantial movement.

I think that they probably aren't capable of doing so, large scale movements like the Russians are doing would be vulnerable to Russia aircraft as well as it'd likely be under substantial pressure the moment the Russian's caught wind.
Also, as they've fought there for eight years already it may be a huge morale loss to give it up.

There's a lot of large gaps between the major units and I'm really curious what the heavy push toward Kiev and the potential for direct Belorus involvement will mean for the already stretched Ukrainian army.

All in all the donation of weapons, especially ATGMs and Stingers can't happen fast enough.

As for Germany, I'm happy that it was under a coalition government that they have come to terms with the need for a credible deterrence. Having strength and not using it in favor of diplomacy speaks a lot more than not have strength and depending on diplomacy.

Also happy to the Germans as well as just about every neutral power in Europe (except Austria?) donating weapons to Ukraine. The Swedes and Finns doing this is a huge signal to Russia.

[Furunculus]

Re: Mauripol brigades - i remember back in 2014 russian aripower destroyed an entire ukranian mech brigade on the move in the space of twenty minutes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...ns-are-nearby/