Great Power contentions

[spmetla]

A little tough to interpret, since the BTG system is supposed to deprecate regiments and integrate two or three artillery batteries and one or two air defense batteries per battalion.

But let's see...

2 tank btn, 9 assault regiments, 5 brigades. Reported total force inventory of 160 tanks (T72).

Brigade = 3 battalions, regiment = 2? = 35 battalions... (Count the 4 AD, 4 arty reg separate or distribute among?) Yeah, I suppose it more or less tracks with 45 thousand personnel total. But then VDV battalions can't be structured just like Army battalions, because an Army armored battalion would have 3 tank companies, 3x10 = 30 tanks, and an infantry/mech battalion would have 1 tank company = 10 tanks. Either the VDV tank battalions are superloaded with tanks and the VDV assault battalions don't integrate tanks, or that contingent of tanks is not actively allocated in full.

The BTG system is like the US Brigade system but it is hard to estimate a strict heirachy and quantity because Russia, just like the US and most countries does 'force tailoring' and will add and take away units under Brigade "Task Forces" or BTGs for the Russias to add capabilities as needed.
I do agree on the assessment though, the VDV has taken a pounding and they've likely lost in KIA a Battalion at least and I think a brigade in casualties and equipment damage/loss.

This guy on twitter is doing a good job of mapping and is actually trying to estimate the Ukraininan forces as well which is something we haven't seen much of.
https://twitter.com/JominiW

More than destroying enemy forces, the Ukrainians have been doing well in destroying columns of trucks and artillery. The Russian military is agreed by all to be hobbled by logistics failures, and the more trucks and trains they lose, the more infantry they have to devote to securing rear areas, the slower they can build up supplies and replenish damaged or broken vehicles, the fewer axes they can advance along and slower... and so on. This buys the Ukrainians time.

Absolutely correct, and the Russian's being a mechanized/motorized force are tied to the roads and open areas for combat so their axises of advance are somewhat predictable now, especially so the supply lines.
This was a good video that educated me a bit on Russia's supply system and doctrine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

At any rate, the Russian military is a sham and even its latest technologies (often based on final Soviet designs) aren't worth a great deal. Big win for Turkey's arms industry (they also make helicopters).

I wouldn't so much negate the value of their technologies but would instead emphasize their poor integration. The US and NATO in general focuses heavily on Joint operations and co-planning of air, sea, ground, and how to fully integrate all the enablers such as intel, artillery, air power, and so on. Apparently, the Russians have not been successful in that integration like NATO has and without it each system on its own is extremely venerable. Just seeing the numbers of tanks that have been knocked out due to lack of infantry and the convoys with no escort trucks shows a real failure to assess vulnerabilities and adapt, likely a result of being a no-failure tolerated leadership system serving a dictator.
Examples of poor integration of US technology is see very easily in the Saudi Army which has lost multiple M1A1 tanks to the houthis due to poor integration into other combat arms to provide mutual support, same with the Turkish use of Leopard 2 tanks in Syria.
The F-35 may be a game changing aircraft but if used by a country that doesn't support it as needed it's just a very expensive jet, same is true for Russia as we see daily.

Good interview with General McMaster:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaqZ9ZYFP6U