Great Power contentions

[Montmorency]

No NATO for Sweden according to PM.

Ukrainians have done better than I expected in keeping Kharkiv and Donbas supplied, it seems. NLAWs arriving in Kharkiv.

The incapacity of the Russian air force has been a gift.

Recent US assessment: 4-10% material losses and 2-4 thousand deaths for Russians.


Ukrainians call a pilot POW's contact and threaten his well-being.
https://twitter.com/NovaGorlivka/sta...97040071766016 [VIDEO]



Same POW as in this video. Also seen in a photo-op with Putin and Assad years ago, but I can't pull that up for you. There have been a number of videos of Ukrainians threatening POWs, on top of some of the POW interview clips clearly being coached for public consumption (which is a Geneva Convention violation). And the earlier threat to execute artillerymen on the spot and the recent proposal to put POWs to work (which is permitted under limited, compensated conditions). I hope we don't see any excesses on the defense's part.

[spmetla]

The POW 'confessions' have been disgusting to see and I wish that Ukraine would be more professional about it. I know they're doing it as part of their info operations aimed at the Russian people but still inexcusable. Just like we've seen some Russian pilot's kit displayed in immaculate condition but the the pilot himself dead and a bloody mess, it points at beating and execution of some that should be POWs.
Given that it is a Russian invasion I can understand the emotions on the Ukrainian side but the need to try and be professional about it. Difficult to enforce when so many are reservists and part of the mass conscription combined with the massive loss of life on the Ukrainian side. The Ukraine should try harder to push the proper guidelines to its lowest level Soldiers in regard to POWs, war is hell but let's try and at least follow some of the rules even if the Russians don't.

The US have said no to the Polish proposal.

It is certainly a difficult situation to work out. The US would have to have the Ukrainian pilots train up on and receive them in Ramstein which would require the tacit okay from Germany too. Then the aircraft would have to be delivered somehow. If flown in they'd likely be tracked by the standard transponders all the way to a NATO nation on the border of Ukraine before they are trucked or flown over, both of which would open up the ire of Russia on said nation. Slovakia and Hungary are the least likely to need to worry about retaliation of Russia but this war is not done and can go any way.

McMaster overreaches in way too many pundits have in assuming too much about Putin's goals and beliefs. Even if we can infer some things with extensive circumstantial evidence (such as swift neutralization of political resistance, excessive organizational/operational secrecy, intent on mass detention/murder of dissidents), we can't say that he's 'lost by not winning instantly.' The state of the Russian armed forces or economy at the end of this is beside the point, after all.

He does overreach, but was a good interview anyhow.

So, leaving aside the BTG angle, what do you make of my attempt to calculate theoretically available Russian combat personnel? How are support personnel distributed in the Russian military and National Guard? What roles were covered by Western estimates of the Russian invasion force?

Honestly, I don't know enough about the Russian organization in the support echelons to comment. I think you're likely not too far from the truth. I'm curious about some things we can't calculate and will be hidden by the Russians for years such as how many of those troops were conscripts and how many are being withdrawn now that the Russian people are aware that conscripts were essentially tricked into a war.
I'm sure the Western estimates were of what they could observe via satellite in temporary bases and camps so that's not going to include the railroad troops, the air force operating out of at least the Russian bases and so on. Seeing as Russia hasn't done a large military operation out of its borders since Afghanistan in the '80s it probably has failed to build up the logistical side of operations as its major deployments have been internal or right on the border.

No NATO for Sweden according to PM.

Ukrainians have done better than I expected in keeping Kharkiv and Donbas supplied, it seems. NLAWs arriving in Kharkiv.

The incapacity of the Russian air force has been a gift.

Recent US assessment: 4-10% material losses and 2-4 thousand deaths for Russians.

The Ukraine has been surprisingly good at pushing supplies forward to the various sectors, priority of course is to Kiev but glad to see supplies reaching other fronts.
As for Russian losses, seeing as they have about 55% of their entire army in the Ukraine right now, I don't think they can continue to sustain these losses for several more weeks. The personnel and equipment losses are irreplaceable in the time period for which they're looking to get a victory.
If the fighting goes on into spring and summer when foliage returns and gives even more advantage to the largely leg infantry Ukrainian reservists/territorial troops the Russians will suffer even greater losses outside of the cities too. Especially as NATO/EU countries get more comfortable with sending equipment, weapons, and ammo.

The incapacity of the Russian air force has been one of the most surprising things of the campaign and looking at the losses they are taking and the heavy sortie rate I think we'll see an increasingly absent Russian Air Force. Pilots can't be replaced easily, and the equipment wear and tear, even outside combat will drastically reduce the availability rate. Something that will force them to either fly formations without the full complement of aircraft (what we see now) which will cause more losses, or to just hold them back for special surges and operations which will make Russian ground forces more vulnerable to attack.
With the donation of lots of MANPADS this should force Russian aviation to fly higher which makes them poorer for Close Air Support and makes them easier to track and target by the remaining Ukrainian legacy ADA systems such as S300 and SA8. Not to mention any MiG-29s if those do ever get to the Ukraine.

[Pannonian]

The Ukraine has been surprisingly good at pushing supplies forward to the various sectors, priority of course is to Kiev but glad to see supplies reaching other fronts.
As for Russian losses, seeing as they have about 55% of their entire army in the Ukraine right now, I don't think they can continue to sustain these losses for several more weeks. The personnel and equipment losses are irreplaceable in the time period for which they're looking to get a victory.
If the fighting goes on into spring and summer when foliage returns and gives even more advantage to the largely leg infantry Ukrainian reservists/territorial troops the Russians will suffer even greater losses outside of the cities too. Especially as NATO/EU countries get more comfortable with sending equipment, weapons, and ammo.

Do you think the Russians will look to interdict this supply of the Ukrainians with materiel? Considering we're in the Internet Age, would this operation be called Trolling Thunder?

[Montmorency]

I haven't seen the dead pilot one. Well, I've seen a dead pilot, but he was smashed by a failed chute, so that can't be it. Link?

The genuine POW performances I don't really get worked up about (such as the most viewed POW video on the Internet - you know the one). Like, I understand that in a networked digital world having one's face plastered all around the Internet in the status of POW can have all sorts of downstream complications, but compliance to GDPR privacy standards doesn't feel that important in wartime. On the other hand captors being verbally malicious and abusive is a bad sign that can spiral out of control if not checked. It's not like one has to be a sensitive bleeding heart at the sight of a humbled man.

And never practice categorical refusal to take prisoners.

Here's an exemplary interaction IMO.
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/stat...05899461038081 [CLIP]

It is certainly a difficult situation to work out. The US would have to have the Ukrainian pilots train up on and receive them in Ramstein which would require the tacit okay from Germany too. Then the aircraft would have to be delivered somehow. If flown in they'd likely be tracked by the standard transponders all the way to a NATO nation on the border of Ukraine before they are trucked or flown over, both of which would open up the ire of Russia on said nation. Slovakia and Hungary are the least likely to need to worry about retaliation of Russia but this war is not done and can go any way.

One of the operations that, conveniently, would be much easier than Towers of Hanoi if Poland occupied a security corridor in Western Ukraine (including one airfield).

Speaking of which, do we know how many SRBM Russia has left after firing off so many hundreds? I keep reading that they can't replace any of them in the near future.

The incapacity of the Russian air force has been one of the most surprising things of the campaign and looking at the losses they are taking and the heavy sortie rate I think we'll see an increasingly absent Russian Air Force. Pilots can't be replaced easily, and the equipment wear and tear, even outside combat will drastically reduce the availability rate.

I read somewhere that the Russian arms industry has been producing around a few dozen fighter/strike jets a year for a long time. It's supposed to be worth it for getting the Russian Air Force to almost all new or modernized frames. (Whereas existing US facilities could surge an F35 a day in theory.)

With the donation of lots of MANPADS this should force Russian aviation to fly higher which makes them poorer for Close Air Support and makes them easier to track and target by the remaining Ukrainian legacy ADA systems such as S300 and SA8.

Ukrainian artillery units at the front are likely depleted. I don't know if this is current or sound doctrine, but I would permanently assign one or two MANPAD to each battery.

[Montmorency]

Audio clip allegedly of Russian soldier(s) bragging about looting luxury goods and executing people in the forest to his partner back home. I'm not sure which would be worse between the clip being authentic and being a propaganda fabrication. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...ir_close_ones/

Germany is a key obstacle to EU sanctions on Sberbank and stopping purchase of Russian petro.

US has activated its strategic materiel stockpile in Europe. Before this is over, I predict we will sorty SSBN subs and swear retaliation against any military detonation of a nuclear device in Europe.

Great look at small-unit action. Anti-tank buffet.

The weapons we saw in this video range from regular RPG-7s over to Panzerfaust 3s, NLAWs, possible RPV-16 and even M141 BDMs.

It's almost odd to post it in this thread, but here's a brief published a month ago arguing that China doesn't have the tools or the institutional knowledge (nor does anyone) to "Overlord" Taiwan.

[spmetla]

Philippines ready to back US if it gets embroiled in war
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

The Philippine president is ready to open the country’s “facilities” to American forces under a 1951 mutual defense treaty if Russia's war against Ukraine turns for the worse and embroils the United States in the fighting, Manila’s ambassador to Washington said Thursday.

Just an example of how Xi's short sighted policies and attitudes toward the neighboring 'vassal states' has backfired and sent Duterte and the PHI back to the US fold despite Duterte wanted to pivot to China.

Great look at small-unit action. Anti-tank buffet.

I was pleased to see the Panzerfaust-3s in there already, made it to the frontline very quickly. Crazy to see such a variety of anti-armor weapons in one anti-armor patrol.

I'm sure you've seen the clips of that BTG NE of Kiev that got driven back today. Crazy to see how poor the Russians are operating. Vehicles bunching up crazy close, no real advancing or retreating in covered bounds and come to find out it's part of the 90th Guards Tank division, just piss-poor training.
I'm just absolutely amazed that after a year of Putin sounding the war drum in ever increasing tone that his army just wasn't ready at all, with even the most basic elements of ground movement beyond their capability. I guess the Generals in charge pocketed the money for training and readiness and ensured that they could put on a good 'show' and make some 'hooah videos' for the fan boys.
I can't imagine the morale is even moderate of the units that have tried and failed repeatedly to surround Kiev or take any of the NE cities. I'm betting that the average RU soldier is just fighting to keep alive as opposed to a sense of patriotism or trust in their leader's orders. Perhaps that's why we see so many mid- high ranking Officers dying, there's no else that can get the troops out front without that personal example of at least a field grade.

It's almost odd to post it in this thread, but here's a brief published a month ago arguing that China doesn't have the tools or the institutional knowledge (nor does anyone) to "Overlord" Taiwan.

This inept Russian invasion is probably going to prove to be the biggest safeguard against any Chinese adventurism in regard to Taiwan anytime soon. The Russians actually have recent military experience and are doing abysmally, I can't expect that a PRC war for Taiwan would go well without some prior conflict to 'practice' how to execute a large scale military campaign.

[Montmorency]

I wonder if the transition to contract/professional soldiers - ~70% of current active military - along with downsizing of combat formations just enabled corruption and misappropriation along the way. The Soviet army was feared for good reason.

Unfortunately, the separatist militaries appear to overmatch their Russian masters, having been exposed to continuous low-grade combat for 8 years (whereas the large majority of Russian soldiers have probably never been shot at by opposition). They are reportedly primarily responsible for the large gains made east/northeast of Mariupol and northwest of Luhansk City. Just today they took out at least 5 Ukrainian tanks. And now multiple heavy cargo planes are transiting between Russia and Syria, according to Putin loading up thousands of Assad's goons. It's dirty, but I wonder if we have any assets remaining whom we can induce to escalate their operations.


EDIT: Mig 29 memes.
https://twitter.com/SubwayCubano/sta...44377872044035 [VIDEO]