Great Power contentions

[Montmorency]

To crosspost with the Trump thread, notice how aligned these psychological impulses are between American and Russian fascisms.

'Cosmopolitan elements are teaching Ukraine, which is Russia, to hate Russians, who are the Real Russians. We must secure a solution to the Ukrainian question before it is too late.'
'Cosmopolitan elements are teaching White children, who are the Real Americans, to hate [racism and sexism], which is our heritage and destiny. We must secure a victory in the Culture War before it is too late.'

It's always been about violent backlash from aggrievance toward loss of dominance, but it hits different to see it iterated up close and personal in so many places and with such escalating detriment.

It's a good time to admit that I was naive to expect for the past years that Putin's fascism would remain "moderate", that this was a stable category for 21st century great politics.

To preface my response to the quoted, the harder Putin fails - not that under any circumstances could Russia be deNazified like Germany or Japan - the less potentiated other authoritarians will be in their delusions.

This is an interesting take. Are you basing that on the assumption of threat to NATO's supremacy?

China is definitely a far greater long term threat in that regard.

My premise is that, as of now, both Putin and the typical Russian soldier are prepared to employ total war tactics against Ukraine, which both exacerbates the humanitarian aspect of the conflict during and after, and dims Ukraine's prospects in the conventional struggle. Of course I want Ukraine to win, and not at the cost of WW2-scale human or infrastructural damage.

Given some of the firmer numbers I laid out in an earlier post (cf. the Pentagon's estimate today that 10% of the pre-staged invasion force has been neutralized), the Russian manpower/formation pool capable of conducting major offensive operations - as opposed to holding villages - is limited. The more and faster come the Russian KIA and WIA, the sooner the front stabilizes. With bountiful UAV and strike fighters in Ukraine's inventory, equipment NATO is likelier to deliver the longer the conflict drags, a static Russian army can't win a war of attrition.

Therefore I wish Ukraine could kill Russian soldiers at a higher rate than it has been.

Remember the front line as it stands allows Ukraine to maintain lines of communication to all its cities somehow, except for the conquered south (Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol.) Not even Sumy is truly cut off yet last I checked. The fight becomes much harder the more Russia can consolidate its front, at least until it reaches the Dnieper cities.

I'm frightened of the DNR/LNR fighters though. They started out more experienced than most Russian soldiers, have reportedly been responsible for much of the ground taken in Donbas so far, and are even pretty good at propaganda. No way Putin garrisons them in Donbas if they clear the provinces.


(I think the West should pressure Ukraine, in favorable scenarios, to abandon their claim on Crimea. At best it could be demilitarized.)