Great Power contentions

[Montmorency]

Joe Biden has authorized the release of 1 million bpd from the Strategic Oil Reserve over the next 6 months. It was a much-promoted option for reducing inflationary pressure at the gas pump (and beyond), and therefore buying the midterm votes of the common clay. This is what applied political science looks like.

Japan has rejected all negotiations with Russia over the Kuril Islands and proclaimed them illegally-occupied territory. I highly doubt the presence of any military component to this policy change.

DoD estimated that 70-75% of total Russian military power is committed to Ukraine, presumably of the ground force in particular.

The Russians have abandoned Hostomel (Antonov) Airport, just north of Irpin/Kyiv. Here is a POV video taken from an apartment maybe a kilometer away from the airport on the day of the invasion, when a swarm of helis brazenly inserted VDV into the airport with Ride of the Valkyries blaring (I like to imagine). The same day that CNN reporters on the scene encountered the Russian vanguard and filmed them from a block away exchanging fire with the Ukrainians. More than a month ago now, and much of the area has since been devastated.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...tomel_airport/

Speculation that Russians stationed in the Chernobyl exclusion zone have been coming down with acute radiation poisoning for not minding the hotspots.

US Air Force procurement proposals. My only qualm is investment in nuclear (presumably beyond maintenance).

AF proposes cutting 150 aircraft: U.S. Air Force leaders want to shed hundreds of “unnecessary” planes and drones and spend more on nuclear and high-tech weapons they say are better suited for a war with China or Russia. They lay out their proposal in the service’s $169 billion 2023 spending request, which is $13.2 billion higher than last year’s request. The service is asking for approval to retire 150 aircraft, including eight E-8 JSTARS radar planes, 21 A-10 attack planes, 33 F-22 training jets, 15 E-3 Sentry AWACS-carrying radar planes, 13 KC-135 aerial refueling tankers, 10 C-130H cargo planes, and 50 T-1 trainers.

AWACS replacement: Speaking of AWACS, the Air Force’s new budget request includes about $225 million to start replacing decades-old E-3s with...well, it’s not quite decided. But a “leading candidate” is the E-7 Wedgetail, a Boeing aircraft flown by several allies, Marcus Weisgerber reports.

Meanwhile in other news Russia may annex South Ossetia soon:
South Ossetia has legal grounds to join Russia — parliament speaker
Alan Tadtayev noted that since 1774, when Ossetia joined Russia, there haven’t been a single document declaring its secession from Russia
https://tass.com/world/1429977<br />...rer=google.com
South Ossetia to hold referendum to join Russia in future - report
Officially, South Ossetia is recognized by most countries as being part of Georgia, though Georgia has no de facto control over it
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-702755


While I'm kind of the opinion that if the people of South Ossetia really don't want to be part of Georgia they shouldn't have to be, especially as they've been defacto independent for decades. However, Russia annexing another country that's internationally still recognized as part of Georgia seems a big 'no no' for me.

Finding a way to 'correct' borders still remains a major problem within the UN framework. Creating new countries like Kosovo or South Ossetia is a major problem that should require buy-in from the country they are seceding from in some form.
This is why things like Taiwan will remain major problems for a long time as there isn't a way for the country losing said province to 'save face' and accept what may be de facto conditions forever.

It's a battle between international order and the law of the jungle.

Contemporary IR scholars have been foolish to discount the geoeconomics of conquest, as though raw resources and population somehow no longer mattered in the digital age. It's just that corporate hegemony is a preferable weapon to war for the ruling classes; doesn't mean war can't possibly pay, even if in most cases it won't. The Project for a New American Century neocons wanted to do the same thing in Iraq after all, just without the annexation - they too badly miscalculated. What Putin, another stupid authoritarian, overlooked is that there's more ruin in an America than there is in a Russia.