Great Power contentions

[Montmorency]

Think a lot of people with their heads in the sand. I'm glad it's Biden in charge and not Trump but Biden is certainly behind the curve in leadership for a lot of this too. But that's been a problem for a long time with the US, getting people in charge with a long view that also aren't shackled by scandals and domestic politics is rare outside of a few branches of government.

Ukrainian colonel Kostiantyn Mashovets:

I don’t think that before the end of March the Ukrainian tank brigade on Leopard-2 will pass a full-fledged combat coordination and reach the minimum combat capabilities

. Moreover, we need at least three such brigades. [Ed. Huh, sounds like a division]

I wouldn't blame Biden too much here, as to my knowledge he has never been a 'military buff' (not that I am); the closest he came was being a military father and being specialized somewhat in foreign policy as a Senator and VP. I doubt war doctrine or the micromanagement of US military capabilities were ever remotely on his agenda. I'm not trying to aggrandize myself, but let's say the "cleaned up" version of my disconnected thoughts on advanced US assistance to Ukraine are ideas I have very rarely seen touched upon in the commentary of even generals. It demands a level of creativity, commitment, and initiative that probably isn't abundant among military tops - moreover, buffeted as they are by orthogonal currents of national (geopolitical) conservatism and optimism bias about Russian or Ukrainian progress. There were not a few arguing in 2022 that the most advantageous course of events for the US is for Russia to be trapped in a years-long quagmire that drains its military and economic potential, a viewpoint hardly conducive to decisive Ukrainian reconquista.

Now if only my Austrian cousins could decide that they need to amend their constitutional neutrality as Russia's actions should show a need to take sides and allow better integration into EU defense planning and better integration into NATO short of actually joining.

I'm badly misremembering the joke, but hasn't the Austrian military/government commonly been referred to as 'the fifth directorate of the FSB' for many years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austri...n_intelligence

Now if only we can fast-track some F-16s for Ukraine and get them to place an order for a large number of Gripens (I think the ideal fighter/attack aircraft for them).

Congress authorized training for F-15 and F-16 platforms back in July, which I assume has been taken up already. Ukraine's government suggests more details will be forthcoming soon.

I saw someone suggest F-5s for Ukraine, and my reaction to that is that a platform whose most advanced hypothetical upgrade branch (not existing units) could put it on a level with Ukraine's obsolescent Mig-29s is just a deathtrap for invaluable Ukrainian pilots.

they don't have to get creamed, they just have to be employed in the purpose of war. thousands of tanks are already burned out hulks in the last year alone. everything supplied up until now and in the coming year is war attrition stocks.

and germany has already shit the bed. the military is a tool of foreign policy - kellog-briand be damned - and every supplier that has tussled with germany over re-export licences will be thinking twice next time. all the way back to the ancient GDR towed artillary that germany prevented estonia gifting to ukraine in April 2022.

If L2s are perceived to "perform well" then it's a boon to their reputation. So you wouldn't like this to come about. If they only come off a bit better than Ukraine's T-64BVs, then their long-standing shine wears off to some extent. Or if they perform well but still get knocked out by the dozens or more, then platforms who haven't been similarly tested have an opening for brand salesmanship to naive politicians.

There have always been export shenanigans - the cousin war to this one, Iran-Iraq, was a nightmare of them - and as long as Germany's industry is willing and permitted to produce, I would wait and see to confirm that there are any practical ramifications at all to Germany's blundering so far. Germany has very few L2 customers outside the broad Europe-zone, and the European customers tend to have strong incentives to continue with L2.

Now, if something drastic were to occur beyond the current record, to be vague, maybe. But in the end, Germany has passed the final test put before it, so there are now barriers to the future sensitization of the issue; where and when else are we left to expect Germany to aggravate its partners on Ukraine policy? Is Germany going to deny the use of Turkish Leopards in Syria suddenly? Before that next level approaches, this all reminds me of the idea that the international community was going to sideline the US because of the Iraq War, or because of how devastating the Trump administration was from the start - it's always more complicated than that.

Separately, we could also imagine a bunch of countries dumping their entire L2 stock (i.e. their entire armored branch) during the war and leaving an opening for a fresh start, but that's a see-it-to-believe-it scenario.


EDIT: I think this Russian article is a little too pessimistic on the availability of contemporary Russian ATGM/AP tech, and more so if judged against export Abrams without DU armor, but here is yet another comment to the effect of my hobby-horse:

- An armored group of 30-50 Abrams tanks is unlikely to affect the situation in the operational sense, - the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies is sure, - but if there are already 200 or 300 units, then they, if used correctly, can become a significant operational factor. In general, the point of the limited supply of Western weapons is not so much aimed at a “decisive Ukrainian victory” (which is most likely unlikely), but mainly at the exhaustion and gradual “grinding” of Russian forces.

Can we all agree that Ukraine needs an Abrams division and a Leopard 2 division - fully-trained - to retake the South? Also, ATACMS to suppress the Kerch Strait Bridge.