Remember that a winter offensive by both sides was touted widely and quasi-officially since November, so the Russians wouldn't necessarily be acting out of hand in what we observe. And political considerations that apply now would have applied in late 2022, when the winter campaigning season was being sketched out. To the extent anything is instigating Russian actions before time, it should be fear of GLSDB, because that would definitely stall any large-scale action in progress within days if deployed.
The Russian offensive we've seen so far though has been rather lack luster though. It threatens the Svatove-Kremina area primarily and Bakmut as well though with tactics that don't bode well for the future as it's really mostly infantry/artillery numbers that allow for any success.

The disaster in their combined arms attack in Vuhledar shows a major lack of skilled coordination among the different parts of a combined arms attack. Most worrisome for the Russians should be that the seem to mindlessly continue forward into a minefield despite heavy losses. I get doing that if you're close to the enemy trench it nearly at the assaulting through phase but this just doesn't seem to be the situation. I imagine there's a lot of 'no retreat' orders going on as well as no alternative or branch plans developed if an attack doesn't go as planned.
I'm just curious if the Ukrainians will do better when the eventually go back on the offensive, I'm optimistic and hope they do so. Attacking a dug in an opponent after first breaching a minefield is difficult work, something the US hasn't done since Desert Storm so doing so without air superiority is quite a difficult problem.

Whatever the specific Russian and Ukrainian plans ahead, it is understood that UFOR will rely on its reserves to, if not exactly deliver a backhand counteroffensive, then harry Russian flanks and logistics in a similar way to the tactics of a year ago.
The did seem to work for the Germans from 1942 onwards fairly well. The pre-emptive attempts to take the initiative through offensives that couldn't be sustained burned our far more resources than well timed counter attacks with limited attacks beyond the previous line of contact.

Fingers crossed for the future though.