Thought I'd make a thread for looking at the current interplay between the US, NATO, EU, China, and Russia. At present it seems China and Russia are testing to see what the limits of Biden's foreign policy will be.
Russian activity in/around the Ukraine:
Increased activity in the Ukraine border.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-asks-russia...ons/a-57105593
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778
While I don't think that Russia will do anything more overt in the Ukraine soon I think it's banking on a Biden foreign policy that was as weak as Obama and Trump when it came to great power problems. I know we have a Ukraine thread so I think I'll leave this for more general great power contentions.
China's grey zone incursion into the Philippines:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/22/asia/...hnk/index.html
With Duterte being a 'friend' of China and enemy of the US it places both the PI and USA in a poor position to do anything. Duterte will likely do little to nothing as he's more or less opposed to the US. The Philippines is weak economically and militarily, even if they were to try and compel fishing boats to leave it is more or less impotent and with Duterte in charge it is very unlikely that this pushes him back to the US camp or to ask for US help. The US and Philippines have a Mutual Defense Treaty in place but these 'gray zone' incursions are difficult to counter.
China's testing the limits of Taiwan's independence and what support it has abroad:
https://www.reuters.com/article/chin...-idINKBN2BT055
https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...her-than-later
Taiwan remains the most dangerous powder-keg in Sino-US relations. It seems that China is working to draw a line in the sand so that they can make it clear that they will at some point take back Taiwan by force and that any effort to stop it will not be worth the economic problems. Sec State Blinken's diplomacy blitz around the Asia-Pacific region has done a lot to shore up support as he gauges support from key allies (S. Korea, Japan, Australia, UK, EU).
It seems to me that China sees the 'the West' as economically vulnerable and politically divided and in a state of irreversible decline so that if were to force the issue and invade (perhaps one of Taiwan's outer islands first) that so long as they don't directly attack outside military forces that no one would dare to get involved. The annexation of Crimea seems an example they can take to show the impotence of the 'the West'
The recent sanctions and boycotts over the Uighur issue have shown some US leadership and an attempt to take back a moral high ground but do you think the US can garner support over Taiwan too?
Here's a good read by the RAND Corp if you want to consider what a Sino-US conflict would be like, it's a little out of date (2016) but makes considerations for a 2025 scenario too.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
The US track record at standing up for it's allies in a 'Danzig Crisis' haven't been too good, do you think the US would intervene if the PRC invaded Taiwan but didn't directly attack US forces in the region? Doing so would risk the economic health of the US and Europe which in today's political climate may make even a 'just' intervention on behalf of Taiwan difficult in the West as likely no one has a stomach for WWIII on the behalf of an island on the other side of the world which is theoretically part of the same nation.
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