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Thread: Great Power contentions

  1. #631

    Default Re: Great Power contentions





    Wooooo!!!

  2. #632
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Certainly, a worrisome event, RIP to the two civilians killed.

    This is more the scenario I was worried about but with the idea that Russia would have bowled over Ukraine and the war would have come right up to the borders of NATO countries (Poland, Hungary, Romania), as well a Russian move into Moldova.
    Glad the above sentence is not the case and this seems to be either an embarrassingly bad miss or a deliberate provocation to try and it the nerves of various NATO countries that it is Russia they are opposing.

    Think Poland probably invoking Article 4 and convening the NATO ambassadors for consultations seems the right move. Probably will see more NATO ADA units put on Poland's border area and an urge to get more top-shelf military hardware to Ukraine to enable them to win and do it soon as the longer it drags out the more potential there is for 'error's like these missiles.

    Just like every North Korean barrage into South Korea doesn't set off a war, proportionality and cool heads seems the right attitude of the day.

    However, if provocations like this continue or escalate and end up being deliberate, I could see NATO imposing a no-fly zone within certain distance of the NATO border with clear language the bases or units that fire into this area will face NATO strikes in response. It'd be a tight rope to walk between that and outright war but it could be done, short of Poland invoking Article 5 at which point WW3 is on.
    Last edited by spmetla; 11-16-2022 at 02:56.

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  3. #633

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    Yes, the Russian military does a good job of leaving them all over the place for the Ukrainian military to capture and use. They clearly have enough to throw them away when they run out of fuel. Truly a decadent society like Japan in the 80s.
    weh
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  4. #634
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    It looks like the missile was Ukrainian, so I don't expect any serious repercussions. If this is confirmed, Kiev should have taken responsibility immediately. It was a tragic mistake and part of the blame still lies with Russia for initiating hostilities. Their aggressive denials put the Baltic states in an embarrassing position and give the opportunity to Moscow to depict Ukraine as completely unreliable.

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  5. #635

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Another point I should admit being confidently wrong about is dismissing the possibilty that WW2-style decoys (e.g. arty, radars, SAMS) could be effective in the 21st century of high-resolution (sometimes) loitering optics and thermal and other enhanced imaging. Well, for months now clips have appeared of Russia attacking Ukrainain decoys. I've even seen a couple of Russian decoys. Seriously, can we pour one out for all the pre-2022 military experts who made their bones teaching that contemporary warfare was a heavily-technical pursuit that came completely distinct from what characterized 20th century industrial warfare?


    Ukraine recently announced that it was restarting production on Soviet-caliber artillery ammunition, though it isn't clear to me if this is a plan in action or has already been achieved at some level. At any rate, I wonder how they're providing power to production, and if the facility is located in an underground or hardened location.


    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    It looks like the missile was Ukrainian, so I don't expect any serious repercussions. If this is confirmed, Kiev should have taken responsibility immediately. It was a tragic mistake and part of the blame still lies with Russia for initiating hostilities. Their aggressive denials put the Baltic states in an embarrassing position and give the opportunity to Moscow to depict Ukraine as completely unreliable.
    I'm pretty sure all of this was hashed out behind the scenes in a matter of hours if not minutes. The identity of the missile as an S-300-mounted missile was known to the public rather quickly, about 12 hours from the incident AFAIK. So we can assume it was known to the Polish and American authorities almost immediately. OSINT can identify missile wreckage almost on sight from photographs, and I don't imagine NATO governmental resources are any less in that respect. Radar and ballistic data would also have mathematically determined/excluded the origin of the missile once analyzed, maybe even faster than visual identification of wreckage. The Polish and American government likely had even more information than the Ukrainian one at the time.

    To add a little detail, the S-300 is an air-defense platform used prominently by both sides, and while Russia has been reupurposing them as ground-attack artillery - we don't need to discuss the technical characteristics of a SAM missile when the distance from the nearest likely Russian launch site would have been the better part of a thousand kilometers, and Ukraine's AD was responding throughout the day to a nationwide bombardment by cruise missiles.

    So I don't think there's any blame to apportion to Ukraine here with regard to potential international tensions.
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  6. #636

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    The best way to describe the nature of battle in this war, if not still conventional warfare in general, might be the WW2 of minor powers, except everyone has loads of mobility, long-range fires, and ISR. That's it.


    That Western countries only seem to be locking in expanded industrial capacity and orders after th better part of a year in, is just stupid. I haven't read these articles in full, so maybe someone can tell me if they contain any reference to an explanation from our authorities for this apparent oversight?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...hells-handing/
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/16...-low-industry/
    Last edited by Montmorency; 11-18-2022 at 01:22.
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  7. #637
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    weh
    If you saw a bunch of abandoned Abrams tanks in Iraq, you would get the sense something is not right.
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  8. #638

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Days after I commented on the successful deployment of decoys in Ukraine, evidence emerged of Russia striking its own radar decoy in Kherson, the west bank it abandoned. It set up the decoy 2 months ago and then attacked it last week, though Ukraine seems to have ignored it the whole time it was under Russian control.
    https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/...16172191580160

    A disloyal decoy.


    The Oryx/Bellingcat OSINT people have done it again.

    At the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, the SAA had on paper approximately the following number of armored tracked vehicles:

    Tanks
    T-55: 2 000
    T-62: 1 000
    T-72: 1 500

    Armoured Personnel Carriers
    BMP-1: 2 000
    BMP-2: 100

    Support Armoured Vehicles
    BVP-1 AMB-S: 100
    ZSU-23-4 “Shilka”: 400
    armored recovery vehicles: 130

    Self-Propelled Artillery
    2S1 Gvozdika: 300
    2S3 Akatsiya: 100

    Note: The numbers of pre-war SAA armored tracked vehicles should be regarded as optimistic estimates. Some armored vehicles were lost in past decades without being accounted for, while many others were not operational (or even beyond repair) at the start of the Syrian Civil War due to being in long-term storage with minimal or no maintenance. Given these factors, more realistic initial numbers would be about 33% lower than what is listed above.



    Those are visually confirmed alone. The Iraqi Armed Forces could probably easily roll over the SAA. (The spike in early 2020 is from Turkey demonstrating why air defense won't save you from drones if it isn't turned on.)
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  9. #639
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    https://www.pcgamer.com/russian-inte...alker-larpers/

    Between this and the SIMs 3 saga, I am not entirely sure what the FSB spends the majority of its time doing.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/video...nation-sims-3/
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  10. #640

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    https://www.pcgamer.com/russian-inte...alker-larpers/

    Between this and the SIMs 3 saga, I am not entirely sure what the FSB spends the majority of its time doing.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/video...nation-sims-3/
    LARP became hyperreality. The Zone is a dangerous place for even the best-prepared.




    EDIT: Allegedly Ukrainian domestic production of Soviet-caliber artillery has finally launched. Every aspect of this is very, very secret, so we won't get much evidence for a long time - but given Ukraine's resource constraints and the substantial damage its energy grid has suffered, without more objective data it will remain hard for me to believe that this production is above the artisanal level. Increases in the availability of Soviet cannons in combat missions would be a form of evidence.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 12-01-2022 at 05:21.
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    The glib replies, the same defeats


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