Rampage Out of Space

[Laurentus]

Before I start solving, I should clarify that I misunderstood one detail of my role previously on. Basically, I need my neighbor to send in the same scan order in order to get 100% true result. And I can get a new neighbor if the old one dies. I should get in touch with one of you later. I'm not sure if sharing this is a good idea, but I think that in our current situation and with my role outed, transparency is important.

So, let's take a look at where I was at yesterday:

town: Winston, HK, Borg, Laurentus, Ibn
poe: Csargo, Vroe, Dolby

From my town, I especially need to take a better look at Borg, make a proper read on Ibn and actually check in detail HK's activity. Laurentus and Winston are the only two firm core members.
Csargo's Nanook vote looks way worse after both wagons flipped town. I don't see many reasons for Csargo to be town. Also, there was almost no pressure on him - and mafia is usually trying to miselim him.
Vroe is up and down for me.He made some good comments and some terrible comments and his presence feels off. Like he's not been actively trying to solve the game with his comments, just showcasing solving.
Dolby's not town here.

Vote: Csargo

I think I can agree with your stance on Csargo, but as a follow-up, why isn't Dolby Town?

[Laurentus]

hollowkatt - Coming around to the idea that HK is the SK. Would make sense for him to go after Nanook and Tim. That leaves me wondering though: Would the Wolves fear Lewwyn more than a potential SK who has decently town-sided? I think this is likely in a world where the Wolves are resting comfortably out of the PoE.

Dolby - Still maintain this slot could be scum from the distancing between him and Tim.

Winston Hughes - Hey, if Cap and Lewwyn said Town, then Town. I fully expect Cap to be the next factional kill, which would confirm this slot.

Ibn-Khaldun - I remember nothing from this slot, will need to ISO.

BorgPicard - Eh, still like this slot because of D1 interactions with Tim, but really don't like that he seems to have disappeared.

Csargo - Can echo Cap's thoughts here.

Laurentus - This guy is open wolfing.

Vroendal - I've been putting him through a series of reaction tests, and he's come to all the wrong conclusions. He rightly points out that I'm playing very different from my usual town style, but then TRs me for it. I tell him I'm death tunneling him if Gnome flips town, and he tries to switch at the last possible second. He even calls my vote bad when at the time I made it, there were no serious counter-wagons. I can agree my reasoning is shaky, since I'm ignoring literally everything else that Dolby is doing because I'm so fixated on the distancing angle, but I also repeatedly said Gnome still had to be the chop. Also note that literally everyone on the Dolby wagon is confirmed Town at this point, except for me. His firm "I ain't dyin'" stance feels like taunting, at this point. You know who doesn't fear the NK? Scum, that's who.

pzelda - If this slot doesn't die soon, I'm killing it with fire, because why on earth would the Wolves risk keeping it around? But he can be town for now. It also literally just registered to me that this is Cap, lol.

[Laurentus]

So my PoE currently looks like: Dolby/Csar/Vro, with room for HK, Ibn, and Cap if he doesn't die soon. Can throw Borg on here too.

Okay, putting it like that has made me realise there's still a shit load of solving to be done here.

[Laurentus]

I'm re-evaluating my estimation of what happened during the night.

HK was not a fan of Panda in the last day phase, so could well have shot there. But then that still makes me think the second night kill was random and coming from scum. There's no way scum shoots Nanook, either.

[Laurentus]

Wait, where is the sequence where Winston was outed again?

[Laurentus]

I'm re-evaluating my estimation of what happened during the night.

HK was not a fan of Panda in the last day phase, so could well have shot there. But then that still makes me think the second night kill was random and coming from scum. There's no way scum shoots Nanook, either.

Dolby wouldn't worry about Nanook coming after him here if he's scum, would he? Nanook doesn't have enough of a thread presence to push it. At that point, it would make far more sense to kill me. So this has to be a random kill, or it came from some weird town role (don't listen to that Wolf Dolby, don't out yourself if you exist), or it was the SK (and if it was the SK, I'm still hella confused who could have gone for Panda.

On the other hand, the fact that people now knew Panda's circumstances, and the fact that we had people like Dolby willing to sheep our town read of him, might make me underestimate how much the Wolves could have judged their odds of lynching him during the day. Which is weird, because I still wasn't going to take him to endgame when compared to some of the more solvey players. So bad move killing Panda if it was you, Wolfies.

[BorgPicard]

Maybe the werewolf got two kills cause of the weird roleblock, but the two kills make sense only as someone scum hunting. Both were people that I, and I believe others, were going to push very hard. While I am concerned about the double kill, I am grateful for their removal. I think that after we get another mafia down we might want to start our sk hunt in earnest.

[BorgPicard]

From the flavor writeup it seems like a sk double kill from a cosmic horror draining people's sanity and life.

[pzelda]

I can't quite pin it down, why I feel Dolby's scum. I'd need to reread the thread again to voice my concerns. Activity wise, he has been towny, but I think he's also been more focused on proving himself town than solving the game.
I have a peek pending on him, which we might never see.

Unfortunately, rn there aren't many players, who could be considered lock town for their activity alone. To avoid paranoia I decided to put some players in my town for now, mostly for their d1. But I'm nowhere near sure about HK, Ibn and Borg. Especially the last one being extremely inactive makes me worry.

There are many things suggesting that HK isn't scum, fortunately. Mostly, Tim not dooming me for my shades and his d1 activity/interactions. If he's a 3p, he's currently siding with town based on the night kills. The 3p is currently trying to kill scum.

Ibn doesn't have a lot going for him and I guess part of my town lean was based on him playing after a long hiatus.

As for Csargo and Vroe. Both of them have kind of bad voting patterns and without them the wagon on Nanook would be pure and I don't believe that. I lean Csargo scum over Vroe scum at the moment. Taking a quick look at eod votecounts, Dolby was on all mislynches so far and he didn't start any of these three wagons. That's a bad look. With an exception of D2, he always stuck to his first vote. I think town Dolby would be less stiff with his vote.
Csargo, despite being fairly active, wasn't exactly active with his vote either and only changed vote from a joke vote to Gnome on d2.
Vroendal was less active and his votes were more often than not votes on already established wagons. Based on his Nanook vote I'd eliminate Csargo/Vroe as an option. Dolby defended Vroe a lot and barely talked about Csargo, so both of these pairings are possible.

So, likely possible world in my eyes are Csargo/Dolby, Vroe/Dolby. But If I throw Ibn and Borg in the mix it gets way more complicated. I hope I'll have time to reread Borg/Tim interactions in search for possible wolf theater and I hope to see more from Ibn today.

Unvote: Csargo
Vote: Dolby

[pzelda]

@BorgPicard could you try to make a list or something? It would be nice to see where you're at.

[pzelda]

Maybe the werewolf got two kills cause of the weird roleblock, but the two kills make sense only as someone scum hunting. Both were people that I, and I believe others, were going to push very hard. While I am concerned about the double kill, I am grateful for their removal. I think that after we get another mafia down we might want to start our sk hunt in earnest.

I think town kill/3p/faction kill 2x3p/faction kill makes more sense here. There also could be some kind of malfunction causing uneven night kills similar to my scanning ability being delayed.

[Ibn-Khaldun]

So I checked the tallys from previous days..

Everybody who have voted Dolby have been killed or voted off.
On day 1 El-A and Nanook voted for him and next day El-A gets pushed and voted off.
On day 2 Nanook and Gnome vote for him and there is a push against Gnome on next day.
Day 3 and Nanook, Panda and Laurentus vote for him.
Night 3 and Panda and Nanook end up dead.
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but I think Dolby should be voted off..

Vote: Dolby

[Laurentus]

So I checked the tallys from previous days..

Everybody who have voted Dolby have been killed or voted off.
On day 1 El-A and Nanook voted for him and next day El-A gets pushed and voted off.
On day 2 Nanook and Gnome vote for him and there is a push against Gnome on next day.
Day 3 and Nanook, Panda and Laurentus vote for him.
Night 3 and Panda and Nanook end up dead.
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but I think Dolby should be voted off..

Vote: Dolby

Not sure I like the reasoning here. What makes you think Panda and Nanook were Wolf kills?

[Ibn-Khaldun]

I think one of them was. Perhaps Panda but Nanook was killed by 3p?

And like pzelda said

I think town kill/3p/faction kill 2x3p/faction kill makes more sense here. There also could be some kind of malfunction causing uneven night kills similar to my scanning ability being delayed.

[Laurentus]

Hmm, do I go Vro or Csar as the counter-wagon here?

[Ibn-Khaldun]

Not sure.. I would go for Vro.

We need to get mafia today.

[Laurentus]

Yeah, I'm going for Vro.

Vote: Vroendal

[Laurentus]

Hmm, I'm actually quite paranoid about something: why is Lewwyn dead and not Cap?

[hollowkatt]

sheesh that was a bad night. Lew is no surprise, nook is a big surprise, so is panda.
One of those two is a SK kill for sure (not lew, that's wolf kill fo sho).
Panda might be SK kill, and is a shot I'd take if I were SK yeah.

I want more from the lhf today b/c I'm concerned we're going to gravitate towards chopping them b/c they're lhf. That's ibn and vro and maybe borg/csargo.

Dunno who it was that said it was weird csargo isn't pushed yet, but yeah, I can grok that take

[pzelda]

So I checked the tallys from previous days..

Everybody who have voted Dolby have been killed or voted off.
On day 1 El-A and Nanook voted for him and next day El-A gets pushed and voted off.
On day 2 Nanook and Gnome vote for him and there is a push against Gnome on next day.
Day 3 and Nanook, Panda and Laurentus vote for him.
Night 3 and Panda and Nanook end up dead.
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it but I think Dolby should be voted off..

Vote: Dolby

Tbh, I don't think this holds any water. Pushes against Gnome and El had little to do with them voting Dolby and Nanook with Panda probably weren't mafia kills

[pzelda]

Having 4 lhfs at this point is quite problematic and we probably should try to find what possibly makes each one of them town. All four of them has been stiff with votes and only Csargo has solid thread presence. Content wise - Csargo and Vroe def posted more reads than Ibn and Borg. Ibn has been extremely under radar and Borg got a lot of credit for his interactions with Tim. Panda was the only one suspecting him for the peek, but that was an obvious tin foil. There could be a pinch of truth in it, tho.

[pzelda]

ngl want to townread this

why?

I think it's clear.

he's frustrated at the lack of development in thread. Yeah it can come from mafia, yeah it can be faked by mafia, but I just like it.

okay, sort of meh but I'll buy it.

This is a page 2 interaction directly following a csargo/rask gif war. It feels slightly forced to me, especially csargo questioning Dolby's take this early. Possibly two wolves trying to get an early interaction in.

[hollowkatt]

This is a page 2 interaction directly following a csargo/rask gif war. It feels slightly forced to me, especially csargo questioning Dolby's take this early. Possibly two wolves trying to get an early interaction in.

I could buy that

[pzelda]

So: early reads...these are obviously subject to development, but will be decisive. Nulls are for wimps.

Argon: in first, claims cop, claims ridiculous n0 check on me, uses avatar basically open referencing that he is a wolf...just another day in the life for him...if he is a wolf he has partners and at least some of those partners would be saying "WTF dude?" because they don't know him. No sign of that discomfort; Argon town.

Chessguy: lots of posts, creates image of "let's get started" by picking at gif posters but doesn't say anything really, overeager to be read on this; probs just a wolf.

Csargo: throwing them gif, but a LOT of them, then shifted to words and stayed overbusy for Csargo; probs a wolf.

Raskol: Emphasizing "disappointed by the rand" which is code for "I claim village," doesn't mention me until he finds a way to be agreeable instead of challenging immediately so trying to stay off radar; probs a wolf.

Dolby: meaningless paragoning of Argon, early read of Chessguy that I disagree with, challenged and stuck to it in a good way. Town.

Hollowkatt: comes in swinging to draw attention, early targeting on Raskol so reval as potential w/w there, seems to be worried about me an appropriate amount. Town

Nanook: enters by establishing slanker cred, immediately threatens to kill the person that helps him. Town


Winston: entry by Hardclaim, no additional posts. lean town

Lewynn: entry is softballed off previous post, but second post indicates reading of full thread, then back to softballing off another entry. Probs wolf

Pzelda: opens with a developed reads post which he just got wolf bombed for last time I saw him and he didn't get bombed for it here. May just have done a better job of it, but... Probs just town.

Panda: points out Pzeldas read post as unique, which is accurate, but wolfs it just for that without challenging the reads. Wolf

Many not posted yet. Gnome, Ibn, Laurentus, El, Vro...get your stuff together.

Tbh, that Dolby read feels more likely w/w than the Csargo read, which is surprisingly accurate.

[pzelda]

I have been keeping my eye on the thread.
Don't know who to vote yet.

tbh, Ibn deciding to use his first post to respond to Tim worries me slightly.

Don't think Rask is mafia.
Csargo could be one?

Ibn/Csargo probably not w/w. I could see town writing this as a reaction to page 1 gif war.

[pzelda]

Vote: Borg


Cause I like to see the tie mechanic..

Claiming a role on D1 is not good for the town.

If he is a regular townie and he claims a role like that he might clear mafia from suspicion as the game progresses. Bad for the town.
If he actually is a Cop like he claimed he just made himself a target for the mafia. Bad for the Town.
If he is mafia claiming to be a Cop and the town actually believes him then he could clear another mafia. Bad for the Town again.

I haven't played mafia with him before unlike some of you so perhaps this is what he does usually in games...

I feel like the derpy part of this explanation (voting cop for outing themselves and not counting it as a self-resolving claim) is towny.

[pzelda]

This feels pretty bad faith. It's been explained multiple times in thread that LA/Borgpicards role claim is in no way serious, and we just get this

Ok, Dolby's kinda drama queen here in response to Ibn's explanation of his Borg vote.

been thinking about how I would play with Argon in the pack...I think if he is wolf with you you just have to trust him to get clear, so I wouldn't be expecting any panic even if he is a wolf

Tim shading Borg? It certainly looks that he was trying to keep him on the menu.

I thought it was serious...

thought the reads list was abnormal, but figured hk would have pointed out it that was true.

I mean, I'm always willing to lop off someone's head, but it is a quote from the Blues Brothers. I honestly didn't expect it to be taken seriously. You do seem a lot more actively engaged than I expect from town Csargo though.

It's pretty easy given the thread. like you I'm also trying to alter my playstyle.

Hmmm...yeah it doesn't have that ominous weight of 4000 posts immanent pressing down on it.

Ok, Csargo has been trying to alter his style. I find it slightly favourable that he got attacked for it by Tim, but the way Tim makes peace with him is reducing it to possible distancing.

[pzelda]

D1 Reads:
Town leans -
El-A - Opening reads very townie to me, puts in immediate effort to lock down his thoughts on thread, asks for clarification on posts through read-through.
CutePanda - Makes a post that catches flak, claims it was a contradictory bait. Calls on others to defend him for his activity. I will vouch that I’ve seen CP make plays like this before as town and that I’m doubtful he would take this approach as scum. Has a confusing ISO.
hollowkat - High amount of analysis in general, provides unique takes on players such as Rask, LA,
c4 - Early game indicative of townie WIM, shields HK, calls a weird post by CP townie while taking it as face value which is mehhh, bemoans post-count multiple times, makes a decent push on pzelda.
Lewwyn - Has been sheeping a few reads. Has broached on the idea of Winston/Garden being suspicious.
Raskolnikov - I have absolutely no read on his posts, I’m more inclined to town-read the way he went about interacting with Csargo and Winston, felt townier.
Tim - Makes a very detailed reads-list and attempts to take charge early. Makes high-effort analysis on defending players such as LA. Would be higher but I don’t trust him at all.

Nulls -
Dolby - Dayshielded LA for reasons I don’t quite understand, has cross-examined multiple posts.
BorgPicard - Conforms to own claiming meta, changes up his claim.
pzelda - First post is analysis, I was unable to establish any read based on his posts.
Csargo - Posted too many gifs, has been cross-examining.
Laurentus - Has yet to post. Will likely not post today. He has done this as town and scum.
Nanook - Conforms to own WIL meta.

Scum leans -
Ibn-Khaldun - Makes opportunistic vote to see tie, attacks LA for being anti-town, probably not w/w with LA.
Garden Gnome - Leads with nothing, interaction with Winston feels forced. Complains of lack of information. Opportunistically pushes BorgPicard based on jokes. Made a distancing poke at Winston for voting HK.
Winston - First post is a “Muller” hardclaim, forces players to use google translate, omgus votes Rask. Makes promise to analyze. Spams thread near EoD. Has been pursuing a wolfy playstyle intentionally.

Winston why are you town?

Vro coming in swinging at whoever is handy is a stark contrast to the way El came in, as late arrivals go. Not gonna go spontaneous combustion about it, but noted.

Tbh, rereading Vroe's list and Tim's reaction makes me feel that Tim's reaction was quite mild. He just said that El was townier, probably to further pocket El. I also still believe the Tim read is sticking out among Vroe's reads.

[pzelda]

mostly cause i can understand it, and see how Dolby got there. i just didn't really agree with the take

I'd be happy with rask/dolby/pzelda going rps.

D1 Reads:
Town leans -
El-A - Opening reads very townie to me, puts in immediate effort to lock down his thoughts on thread, asks for clarification on posts through read-through.
CutePanda - Makes a post that catches flak, claims it was a contradictory bait. Calls on others to defend him for his activity. I will vouch that I’ve seen CP make plays like this before as town and that I’m doubtful he would take this approach as scum. Has a confusing ISO.
hollowkat - High amount of analysis in general, provides unique takes on players such as Rask, LA,
c4 - Early game indicative of townie WIM, shields HK, calls a weird post by CP townie while taking it as face value which is mehhh, bemoans post-count multiple times, makes a decent push on pzelda.
Lewwyn - Has been sheeping a few reads. Has broached on the idea of Winston/Garden being suspicious.
Raskolnikov - I have absolutely no read on his posts, I’m more inclined to town-read the way he went about interacting with Csargo and Winston, felt townier.
Tim - Makes a very detailed reads-list and attempts to take charge early. Makes high-effort analysis on defending players such as LA. Would be higher but I don’t trust him at all.

Nulls -
Dolby - Dayshielded LA for reasons I don’t quite understand, has cross-examined multiple posts.
BorgPicard - Conforms to own claiming meta, changes up his claim.
pzelda - First post is analysis, I was unable to establish any read based on his posts.
Csargo - Posted too many gifs, has been cross-examining.
Laurentus - Has yet to post. Will likely not post today. He has done this as town and scum.
Nanook - Conforms to own WIL meta.

Scum leans -
Ibn-Khaldun - Makes opportunistic vote to see tie, attacks LA for being anti-town, probably not w/w with LA.
Garden Gnome - Leads with nothing, interaction with Winston feels forced. Complains of lack of information. Opportunistically pushes BorgPicard based on jokes. Made a distancing poke at Winston for voting HK.
Winston - First post is a “Muller” hardclaim, forces players to use google translate, omgus votes Rask. Makes promise to analyze. Spams thread near EoD. Has been pursuing a wolfy playstyle intentionally.

Winston why are you town?

Okay then Tim your date is sealed.

this looks like a claim.

[pzelda]

Sorry for not clearing these quotes!
Rereading d1 I have come to a shocking conclusion. N1, I targeted Winston alone and therefore the result isn't 100% reliable(plus he claimed Miller, so It's possible that his actual role is godfather, a common bastard-ish counter measure to cop). D1 he posted some prime examples of slank cover and some posts, which were They could be town or scum. A good example of the latter is his Tim/Lewwyn v/v read immediately undermined by paranoia w/w read.

And why I actually started thinking about this? It's because of Vroe. If Vroe's scum and his list still suggests so, him choosing to bus Winston early on would come as no surprise and Tim trying to influence him in the thread would make sense too. I know this is lot of narrative and wifom and I have two more days to reread, but a lot of it makes sense in my head right now.

Overall I am at Vroe>Csargo>Dolby with Winston only coming in the poe if Vroe is scum as a direct association.

Borg prolly always 3p/vig here. Unless it's Csargo.

Unvote: Dolby
Vote: Vroendal