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Thread: Quo Vadis Labour?

  1. #1
    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
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    Default Quo Vadis Labour?

    No one I know and I mean no one, voted for Labour this last election. To put this into perspective, most of my friends used to vote Labour but now say they never will again. Good.

    The question is what went wrong?
    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

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    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Could someone toss out a 50ish word precis on the state of the conflict in question?
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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    How on EARTH has Labour screwed up so bad that people look at Johnson and go "yes, we want him"?

    I think that between the very left of centre Big State policies that have been going on for 18 months on now by the Tories and the shared trauma of Corbyn close to being PM and of course the current Head of the Labour party is Sir Kier Stirmer, QC - representing a borough in London - or to put it another way, a proper member of the Elite and an Egghead to boot.

    That local elections have individuals associated with political parties is something that should not be a thing (as it ends up as a mid-term popularity contest) and this is why votes for local individuals is solely seen through the prism of how this matters in Westminster.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Could someone toss out a 50ish word precis on the state of the conflict in question?
    As seen in rory's post, the two main parties are held to different standards. The complaint about Starmer is that he is as much an establishment figure as you can get. Except that the Tory leader was born to privilege, was brought up in privilege (the same educational route as the 2010-16 PM David Cameron), and has never held what you may call a "proper job". Compare with the Labour leader who was born to traditional Labour-oriented working parents, whose route to his current position came via his own ability, and whose knighthood came from services to the state outside politics. The Tory leader received everything he's got via his birth and class, the Labour leader received everything he's got via his own work. Yet Starmer is criticised as the establishment figure.

    Keir Starmer: father was a toolmaker, mother was a nurse, went to a grammar school (a publicly funded school for the top n percentage of students). Studied law at Leeds university. Was a highly rated lawyer and served in the top legal positions, for which he received a knighthood. All this before taking up politics.

    Boris Johnson: father was born of various aristocratic lines, mother is an artist. Went to various boarding schools (the traditional prep for the upper class), ending up in Eton (the most established of pre-university schools). Studied classics at Oxford. Worked in various journalistic posts, but made his name on the news satire show Have I Got News For You. Prior to becoming PM, had a bad reputation at every post he was at, with a reputation for laziness and disregard for truth (cf. his editor at the Telegraph who said that Johnson is unsuitable for any responsible role, his civil servants at the Foreign Ministry who called him the worst foreign secretary in living memory, etc.).

    But Keir Starmer is the proper member of the Elite.

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  5. #5
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    As seen in rory's post, the two main parties are held to different standards. The complaint about Starmer is that he is as much an establishment figure as you can get. Except that the Tory leader was born to privilege, was brought up in privilege (the same educational route as the 2010-16 PM David Cameron), and has never held what you may call a "proper job". Compare with the Labour leader who was born to traditional Labour-oriented working parents, whose route to his current position came via his own ability, and whose knighthood came from services to the state outside politics. The Tory leader received everything he's got via his birth and class, the Labour leader received everything he's got via his own work. Yet Starmer is criticised as the establishment figure.

    Keir Starmer: father was a toolmaker, mother was a nurse, went to a grammar school (a publicly funded school for the top n percentage of students). Studied law at Leeds university. Was a highly rated lawyer and served in the top legal positions, for which he received a knighthood. All this before taking up politics.

    Boris Johnson: father was born of various aristocratic lines, mother is an artist. Went to various boarding schools (the traditional prep for the upper class), ending up in Eton (the most established of pre-university schools). Studied classics at Oxford. Worked in various journalistic posts, but made his name on the news satire show Have I Got News For You. Prior to becoming PM, had a bad reputation at every post he was at, with a reputation for laziness and disregard for truth (cf. his editor at the Telegraph who said that Johnson is unsuitable for any responsible role, his civil servants at the Foreign Ministry who called him the worst foreign secretary in living memory, etc.).

    But Keir Starmer is the proper member of the Elite.
    Western side of "The Pond" orgah thanks.
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Could someone toss out a 50ish word precis on the state of the conflict in question?
    The core of the issue is that a Tory party now 11 years in government - having presided over massive and divisive policy problems around austerity/brexit/covid - should not be coming out of local elections with:

    Hundreds of new Councillors (when local 'mid-terms' are seen as an opportunity to kick the Gov't).
    Control of up to a dozen new councils (ditto above - and the base from which future GE's are fought with advantage).
    Increasing its seats and mayoral vote in London (labour stronghold).
    Holding firm what should have been short terms gains in Scotland (a rare place where Boris is an electoral negative).
    Making huge gains in labour dominated Wales (where Labour's Mark Drakeford is recognised as having had a 'good' pandemic).

    There is a problem here, and no-one can really explain why:

    Yes, we can point at labour's problems as an effective opposition, and we can point to the incumbency benefit of crisis management, but on the principle that elections are "lost by the gov't, rather than won by the opposition" - what the hell are the tories doing that is making them so popular!

    We all sort of recognise that the answer is that:
    1. There is a broader social/cultural realignment going on, and the Tories are better able to exloit it in electorally useful ways.
    "But how? Tell me what it is that is so bloody appealing about Tories!"
    2. Political parties only survive long-term by a ruthless and relentless adaptation to changing circumstances, and Tories are good at it.
    "But how? Why do they keep re-inventing themselves when other movements burn out after a century or so!"

    It's utterly fascinating, and thoroughly perplexing. The conundrum delights me - as I love the evolution of political culture - but it's driving many people potty...

    I'm old enough to have seen a number of prolonged slumps in Tory popularity. Each slump peppered with individual scandals dragging them still further down, that result in glorious exultation from opposition supporters:
    "The Tories are obsolescent, through their callous self-interest totally incapable of commanding public support. Terminal decline! This is our time, and the progressive alliance of social-democrats is ascendant."
    Heard this before, plenty, and I've learnt enough to smile wryly when i hear it again:
    "Really, you haven't noticed how throughout history the Tories have borg'ed their opposition's electoral niche?"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sh-welsh-polls
    Last edited by Furunculus; 05-09-2021 at 08:42.
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  7. #7

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    The core of the issue is that a Tory party now 11 years in government - having presided over massive and divisive policy problems around austerity/brexit/covid - should not be coming out of local elections with:

    Hundreds of new Councillors (when local 'mid-terms' are seen as an opportunity to kick the Gov't).
    Control of up to a dozen new councils (ditto above - and the base from which future GE's are fought with advantage).
    Increasing its seats and mayoral vote in London (labour stronghold).
    Holding firm what should have been short terms gains in Scotland (a rare place where Boris is an electoral negative).
    Making huge gains in labour dominated Wales (where Labour's Mark Drakeford is recognised as having had a 'good' pandemic).

    There is a problem here, and no-one can really explain why:

    Yes, we can point at labour's problems as an effective opposition, and we can point to the incumbency benefit of crisis management, but on the principle that elections are "lost by the gov't, rather than won by the opposition" - what the hell are the tories doing that is making them so popular!

    We all sort of recognise that the answer is that:
    1. There is a broader social/cultural realignment going on, and the Tories are better able to exloit it in electorally useful ways.
    "But how? Tell me what it is that is so bloody appealing about Tories!"
    2. Political parties only survive long-term by a ruthless and relentless adaptation to changing circumstances, and Tories are good at it.
    "But how? Why do they keep re-inventing themselves when other movements burn out after a century or so!"

    It's utterly fascinating, and thoroughly perplexing. The conundrum delights me - as I love the evolution of political culture - but it's driving many people potty...

    I'm old enough to have seen a number of prolonged slumps in Tory popularity. Each slump peppered with individual scandals dragging them still further down, that result in glorious exultation from opposition supporters:
    "The Tories are obsolescent, through their callous self-interest totally incapable of commanding public support. Terminal decline! This is our time, and the progressive alliance of social-democrats is ascendant."
    Heard this before, plenty, and I've learnt enough to smile wryly when i hear it again:
    "Really, you haven't noticed how throughout history the Tories have borg'ed their opposition's electoral niche?"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sh-welsh-polls
    Using the election reporting link above:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sh-welsh-polls


    From the 2019 election Wiki, in those elections the Conservatives lost more than 1000 council seats, mostly to LibDems and other third parties (such as UKIP). From that perspective it was inevitable they should regain some in a reversion to a mean, both from the Euroskeptic UKIP/BP-voting end of the party and from the pro-EU end of the party that tended to support LibDems in 2019.

    In 2021 from what I can find the Labour vote share is pretty much the same as it was in 2019. The loss of 250+ seats, alongside 70 Green gains, suggests that overall Conservatives are benefiting in a lot of close elections from voters returning from third parties, whereas the opposite is affecting Labour. The widespread sentiment of recovery from the pandemic will always help an incumbent party here, by the by.

    As for Tories undermining their opposition by assimilating policies into their platform, this appears superficial, as the Conservatives rarely live up to their promises (e.g. Johnson and NHS). The political system as a whole does matter here, and it must always be pointed out that neither major party is really capable of commanding majority support under normal circumstances.
    Something I don't know: the LibDems, having coalesced in the late 80s/early 90s, became a major third party once more in time for the Blair era, a time of massive Labour majorities; did LibDems mostly poach Conservative voters back then (as compared to Labour voters now)?

    As we've discussed before, third parties like LibDems, Greens, and especially SNP participating at elevated levels in all the wrong places makes it almost impossible for Labour to form even a bare majority under any but the heaviest landslides - even as a majority-to-supermajority of the country dislikes the Conservative party. The collapse of reactionary parties on the Tory flank meanwhile consolidates Conservative votes - Brexit is thus a winner for the Brexiting party until the opposition can persuasively demonstrate harms to the country. For a possible analogy, it took around 20 years for US accession to NAFTA to become an animating controversy again!

    Speaking of SNP, I think it's inevitable now that Scotland leaves. In 2014, the referendum was 45-55 for Remain. In 2015, the SNP finally became a major party by swapping like 50 seats in Scotland from Labour. Over the past 5 years, Brexit has been a thing, which Scottish people tend to dislike very much. In 2017 and 2019, the SNP more or less entirely maintained its massive gains from 2015 at Labour's expense. What this all amounts to is:

    1. The next Labour government will rely on the SNP to form a majority
    2. SNP will demand a referendum
    3. Leave will be heavily favored to win the referendum
    4. Labour will be widely blamed (if unfairly) for losing Scotland
    5. Even if that resentment fades in England, the loss of Scottish seats is a permanent handicap for Labour (since so long as Scotland remains in the UK Labour can at least theoretically retrench on SNP)

    In terms of (very) vulgar cyclicalism, I might predict Labour ought to take government in 2024/5 on the basis that no Conservative government has lasted more than ~15 years since the the pre-Victorian era (cf. Cameron government from 2010). It's crude reasoning though, and I'll laugh if it works out to be so simple.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 05-09-2021 at 17:04.
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Note of confusion.

    Looking further at the history of local elections, are they actually staggered? That is, 2019 elections involved seats last contested in 2015, which are different than seats contested in 2016, these latter being the ones contested in 2021 (following postponement of elections from 2020)?
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Note of confusion.

    Looking further at the history of local elections, are they actually staggered? That is, 2019 elections involved seats last contested in 2015, which are different than seats contested in 2016, these latter being the ones contested in 2021 (following postponement of elections from 2020)?
    Yes, they are staggered.
    The English LA elections should have been last year, and there is I think a split between the rural authorities (on year) vs rural authorities (off year).
    This was something of a 'super-election' as the delay meant the election coincided with lots of Mayoral and Welsh/Scottish election.
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    From the 2019 election Wiki, in those elections the Conservatives lost more than 1000 council seats, mostly to LibDems and other third parties (such as UKIP). From that perspective it was inevitable they should regain some in a reversion to a mean, both from the Euroskeptic UKIP/BP-voting end of the party and from the pro-EU end of the party that tended to support LibDems in 2019.

    In 2021 from what I can find the Labour vote share is pretty much the same as it was in 2019. The loss of 250+ seats, alongside 70 Green gains, suggests that overall Conservatives are benefiting in a lot of close elections from voters returning from third parties, whereas the opposite is affecting Labour. The widespread sentiment of recovery from the pandemic will always help an incumbent party here, by the by.
    All of this is true, but it still leaves the following as the biggest question:
    "a Tory party now 11 years in government - having presided over massive and divisive policy problems around austerity/brexit/covid - should not be coming out of local elections with [a smile on its face]"
    With all labours problems - and the new elecoral boundaries coming soon (finally - far too long!), there is pretty much zero prospect of conservatives not being in power after the next GE.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Speaking of SNP, I think it's inevitable now that Scotland leaves. In 2014, the referendum was 45-55 for Remain. In 2015, the SNP finally became a major party by swapping like 50 seats in Scotland from Labour. Over the past 5 years, Brexit has been a thing, which Scottish people tend to dislike very much. In 2017 and 2019, the SNP more or less entirely maintained its massive gains from 2015 at Labour's expense.
    I'm not sure there is any certainty on this.
    If they decide to leave, so be it, but i'm relatively confident they will decide not to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Something I don't know: the LibDems, having coalesced in the late 80s/early 90s, became a major third party once more in time for the Blair era, a time of massive Labour majorities; did LibDems mostly poach Conservative voters back then (as compared to Labour voters now)?
    The Liberals (pre Democrats) were THE major force in politics alongside the Tories until the start of the twentieth century, after which point they ceased to be able to represent the interests of a broad and election winning swathe of society.
    The labour movement provided better answers. Now, a century later it seems to be that the labour movement has run out of answers to questions that interest a broad and election winning swathe of society.
    And yet centuries roll by and Tory's keep winning, why?

    If you want my answer - off the back of Baron Hailsham's logic, it is:
    "Conservatism is not so much a philosophy as an attitude, a constant force, performing a timeless function in the development of a free society, and corresponding to a deep and permanent requirement of human nature itself."
    An attitude doesn't go out of date - and in not being rooted to ideological precepts that circumstance renders obsolete it is easier for 'conservatism' to move with the times.
    i.e. to die in a ditch defending now that which they died in a ditch resisting a century previous.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 05-10-2021 at 08:52.
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  11. #11

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    With all labours problems - and the new elecoral boundaries coming soon (finally - far too long!), there is pretty much zero prospect of conservatives not being in power after the next GE.
    Say more.

    I'm not sure there is any certainty on this.
    If they decide to leave, so be it, but i'm relatively confident they will decide not to.
    Shouldn't the overwhelming - and historically-recent! - success of pro-independence politics, in combination of the near-success of the independence referendum just prior to the maturation of the rise of pro-independence politics, belie this estimation?

    The Liberals (pre Democrats) were THE major force in politics alongside the Tories until the start of the twentieth century, after which point they ceased to be able to represent the interests of a broad and election winning swathe of society.
    The labour movement provided better answers. Now, a century later it seems to be that the labour movement has run out of answers to questions that interest a broad and election winning swathe of society.
    And so were the Whigs before the Liberals, though here it is important to note that Labour continues to draw a swathe of society broad enough to almost match the Conservatives numerically, something the Liberals/LibDems have not been able to claim in over a century - it's just not election-winning. In the history of political parties fading from the scene, I am not aware of any in Labour's contemporary position.

    I repeat, indeed intensify: no political party in the United Kingdom is capable of winning a majority of the vote. Structural factors have more relevance than intensional ones.

    Edit: To say a little more, the contemporary LibDems seem to have hardly any natural constituency. Their votes tend to be major-party voters protesting against their customary parties. The core base of the LibDems, such as it may be, is possibly hardly bigger than that of the Greens.

    And yet centuries roll by and Tory's keep winning, why?

    If you want my answer - off the back of Baron Hailsham's logic, it is:
    "Conservatism is not so much a philosophy as an attitude, a constant force, performing a timeless function in the development of a free society, and corresponding to a deep and permanent requirement of human nature itself."
    An attitude doesn't go out of date - and in not being rooted to ideological precepts that circumstance renders obsolete it is easier for 'conservatism' to move with the times.
    Yes, the Right always has a constituency, that's not a groundbreaking observation.

    Evergreen observation:

    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Wilhoit
    Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit:

    There must be in-groups whom the law protectes but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.

    There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time.
    Conservatism also arguably has the distinction of the longest track record of failure and disaster in philosophical history.

    i.e. to die in a ditch defending now that which they died in a ditch resisting a century previous.
    This is a rather uncommon sort of conservatism today, raw reaction against modernity having driven it out, but even then it recalls one of those Internet laws (to paraphrase): 'Conservatism is opposition toward what liberals want today.'
    Last edited by Montmorency; 05-11-2021 at 04:03.
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus
    "With all labours problems - and the new elecoral boundaries coming soon (finally - far too long!), there is pretty much zero prospect of conservatives not being in power after the next GE."

    Say more.
    https://boundarycommissionforengland...v.uk/about-us/

    Supposed to happen every 5-10 years to reflect demographic change in an electoral system that requires equal constituency sizes.

    The general rule is that as people improve their lot they tend to migrate from from poorer areas to wealthier areas - which over time results in it requiring more voters to elect a Tory candidate than is true of a labour candidate.

    Requires political cooperation in Westminster to agree the mandate that is given to the Commission, which the lib-dems (in coalition) scuppered, so the process hasn't been done since 2007.

    The current mandate for the Commission is likely to result in a structural change that gives the Tories 10-15 more MP's and Labour similarly less.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bounda...nited_Kingdom)
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Tony Blair (the only Labour leader to win a general election in nearly half a century):

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...abour-will-die
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    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Good interview...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en7s...Triggernometry

    I'd pay to see Handcocks head flushed down the bog! LOL
    Last edited by InsaneApache; 05-13-2021 at 11:03.
    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

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  15. #15

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Interesting historical context.

    FINAL LOCAL RESULTS:

    Starmer has lost 326 seats (-7%), the worst local election results for a new opposition leader in over 40 years.

    CON: 2,345 (+235)
    LAB: 1,345 (-326)
    LD: 586 (+7)
    GRN: 151 (+88)




    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    https://boundarycommissionforengland...v.uk/about-us/

    Supposed to happen every 5-10 years to reflect demographic change in an electoral system that requires equal constituency sizes.

    The general rule is that as people improve their lot they tend to migrate from from poorer areas to wealthier areas - which over time results in it requiring more voters to elect a Tory candidate than is true of a labour candidate.

    Requires political cooperation in Westminster to agree the mandate that is given to the Commission, which the lib-dems (in coalition) scuppered, so the process hasn't been done since 2007.

    The current mandate for the Commission is likely to result in a structural change that gives the Tories 10-15 more MP's and Labour similarly less.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bounda...nited_Kingdom)
    I recall reading about British districting a little ahead of the issues of 2019, and without further inquiry IIRC:

    British districting does not require principles equivalent to those upheld in our Reynolds v Sims, namely that (within-state) constituencies actually be roughly equal in size. Indeed, some provisions effectively prevent this.

    Historically the Labour vote has been less efficient in its distribution; Labour-leaning seats suffer more from "cracking" and "packing" than Conservative ones.

    While the variance in size of parliamentary units is probably less in the UK than in the US - where it has been up to 100% in contemporary practice - the UK average constituency is much smaller, making differences of a few thousand much swingier.


    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Tony Blair (the only Labour leader to win a general election in nearly half a century):

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...abour-will-die
    Objectively, that is to say without value judgements on the content of his assertions, this does shed an odor of fighting the last war, so to speak.

    The British Labour Party is the embodiment of this progressive challenge. Just 17 months ago it went to the far left and suffered the worst defeat in the party’s history. It has now replaced Jeremy Corbyn, a classic protest politician completely unsuited to leadership, let alone to governing, with Keir Starmer – Sir Keir – intelligent, capable, moderate-minded. He has taken a strong stand against the stain of anti-Semitism from the Corbyn era, been generally reasonable when opposing the government’s handling of Covid-19, and looks and sounds sensible. But he is struggling to break through with the public, and last week’s elections are a major setback.
    Hahahahaha

    A new survey from YouGov conducted on Monday found Sir Keir has a net rating of -48, with just 17 per cent of voters saying he is doing well and 65 per cent saying he is doing badly.

    At around the same point in Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in September 2016, Sir Keir's predecessor had a net rating of -40 per cent.

    21 per cent of voters then believed Mr Corbyn was doing well while 61 per cent thought he was doing badly.

    Mr Corbyn had by this point survived an attempt by internal opponents to oust him as leader, winning the 2016 leadership contest by 62 per cent to 38 for his rival Owen Smith.
    I know basically nothing of what Starmer's been doing during his tenure, but I'm pretty sure this counts as evidence - and Starmer's approval rating has been consistently declining for half a year now - that Blair's fuzzy feelings about Starmer, or what Starmer represents to his mind, don't have the electoral significance he believes they ought to have. Because facts don't care about feelings, or sommat.

    How does everyone still get stuck in the level of analysis of their personal political preferences being the election winners?



    My comparative studies of Europe and the US all point to the same conclusion: White people want social democracy, but they're panicking about the presence of non-White people (and men about their own role in society, but that's global).

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    Last edited by Montmorency; 05-15-2021 at 02:19.
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  16. #16
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    The simple truth is that England is a right wing country. It is reflectively deferent to the upper classes in culture, politics and law and is xenophobic and eager to align itself with the powerful. There is a very strong streak of egalitarianism, moderation and rooting for the underdog - but these are minority interests. Brexit and Scottish nationalism killed the labour party. Scotland deserted labour in the referendum and the North deserted them with Brexit. All those working class northerners have decided that they may as well vote for their social betters as labour hasn't done anything for them in 60 years.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    That might be true, but if so it is only a slight bent in the same way we talk about the overton window - a spectrum shifted slightly on one axis.

    It feels like there must be a viable fptp election winning internal coalition of positive-liberty interests, i'm just not sure what that looks like...?
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  18. #18
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    My two anecdotal pence.
    1) There has been a lot of cross over from the USA coming into UK political thought. Those who are the most economical vulnerable have turned the right wing American conspiracy sites. You hear the man and woman talking on the street about Bill Gates, 5G, Agenda 21, etc and other global conspiracies. Someone said to me they go to the US for their "news" as it is more trustworthy.
    2) Labour has been very absent during the pandemic. Only time it pops up is in regards to Corbyn's anti-semitism like a flogging of a dead horse.
    3) As furunculus stated. UKIP poached a lot from Labour. The collapse of UKIP led to those voters flocking to their ideological closest, the Conservatives. Even if this push is a couple of %, it is enough to tip the balance in a FPTP system.
    4) Labour has always had strong Scottish roots. So it is also the added issue of their stronghold in Scotland decimated and replaced by the SNP, eliminating the parties backbone.
    Last edited by Beskar; 05-18-2021 at 16:02.
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  19. #19
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    And I listen to the Beeb for the same reason...
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  20. #20
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    And I listen to the Beeb for the same reason...
    They are meaning those ring-wing conspiracy websites like Alex Jones.
    Days since the Apocalypse began
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  21. #21
    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    And I listen to the Beeb for the same reason...
    LOL
    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

    “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.”

    To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticise.

    "The purpose of a university education for Left / Liberals is to attain all the politically correct attitudes towards minorties, and the financial means to live as far away from them as possible."

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    Clan Clan InsaneApache's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    There are times I wish they’d just ban everything- baccy and beer, burgers and bangers, and all the rest- once and for all. Instead, they creep forward one apparently tiny step at a time. It’s like being executed with a bacon slicer.

    “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.”

    To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticise.

    "The purpose of a university education for Left / Liberals is to attain all the politically correct attitudes towards minorties, and the financial means to live as far away from them as possible."

  23. #23

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Can't believe no one remembered this nugget. @Idaho

    Quote Originally Posted by John Stuart Mill
    I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it. Suppose any party, in addition to whatever share it may possess of the ability of the community, has nearly the whole of its stupidity, that party must, by the law of its constitution, be the stupidest party; and I do not see why honorable gentlemen should see that position at all offensive to them, for it ensures their being always an extremely powerful party. I know that I am liable to a retort, and an obvious one enough; and as I do not wish to allow any honorable gentleman the credit of making it, I make it myself. It may be said that if stupidity has a tendency to Conservatism, sciolism, or half-knowledge, has a tendency to Liberalism. Something might be said for that, but it is not at all so clear as the other. There is an uncertainty about sciolists; we cannot count upon them; and therefore they are a less dangerous class. But there is so much dense, solid force in sheer stupidity, that any body of able men with that force pressing behind them may ensure victory in many a struggle, and many a victory the Conservative party has gained through that power
    Vitiate Man.

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  24. #24
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    a great comfort in these dark times, no doubt.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  25. #25

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    a great comfort in these dark times, no doubt.
    If by "dark times" you mean for Labour, then according to the passage it's the opposite of their comfort.
    Vitiate Man.

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  26. #26
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    i meant the comfort to be found in dark times from a little idle malice directed at the perceived cause.
    won't advance ones circumstances, but a temporary salve no doubt in the absence of useful action.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  27. #27

    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    i meant the comfort to be found in dark times from a little idle malice directed at the perceived cause.
    won't advance ones circumstances, but a temporary salve no doubt in the absence of useful action.
    Now I'm confused, because that just sounds like Brexit.
    Vitiate Man.

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  28. #28
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Quo Vadis Labour?

    **yawns**
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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