Thanks Newc :thumb:
have a good night
I think Newcomb is the most important person for me to solve toDay and I feel confident in my ability to do so one way or another without just shrugging and flipping him. To start with a selfish read: I felt during day one that Newcomb was fine in the way he interacted and handled me. His concern on me stemmed from my discussions on Cape: multiple people started talking about their Cape issues and I came in with mine and it sounded hedgey yet specific in a way that Newcomb thought was laying bussing groundwork. I can understand this. How he handled it after saying it felt reasonable to me; express concern, don't press it or pile on, give me space, and try to calm me down when I was talking about how rattled I got.
Looking back on it, I think it's very easy to see that I was getting rattled by Ladd. Newcomb didn't really pile on, didn't really try and signal boost Ladd, and didn't start trying to have discussions about me with other people to either look good later (if he chose to defend me) nor to try and apply more pressure to me. It just felt right in the moment, and that's why I called him a villager yesterday.
The way Ladd handled Newcomb is interesting to me. He just basically cleared Newcomb off the bat and it kind of reminded me of the thing I picked up on Voxx doing to Newcomb in the old shadowhydra game where he just kind of assumed Newcomb would be villagery and snapped of a ?solving the game? type of read. I still feel like this is in play ? even though I understand it could be clearing a wolf bro and power wolfing ? because I don't think Ladd ever really tried to leverage his read into a hard Newcomb defense. People were suspecting Newcomb for much of the day and the way Ladd handled it reminds me more of a wolf trying to be right than a wolf trying to deflect pressure off a teammate.
There were other aspects during day one that made me feel good about Newcomb. The way he approached the Sleep/Cape interaction and asking Katze about the likelihood of the different worlds and what they would mean struck me as villaNewcomb trying to get a holistic and big picture view of the situation. I also thought the questioning of csargo's placement of Rask was done in a towny way where it was called out with a gif and then just didn't want to drop it and followed up on it with like another couple of posts and trying to figure out how that can happen in various worlds and what it means not just for csargo but their relation to rask as well.
Then you have a very hard press onto Newcomb from people I'm not really ? super towny on near eod. We'll get more onto them later. But once Winston started really pressing for Ladd there seemed to be a big counter press for Newcomb and I'm sketched out by it. Sure, it could just be town sections all landing on a different wolf and that's why it seems weird to me. Which is why I really need to get his alignment correct.
With all of this said, we have a d1 wolf flip of a very active and good wolf. I think if Newcomb is a villager it will be obvious as the day progresses. He'll dig into things, find good spew analysis, not paired worlds, and good big picture views of the game state. If not, I think I'll be able to look at his posts 24-36 hours into the phase and just say ?you don't care about solving anything and I was just wrong day 1?.
Right now I don't think I am? But we'll see.
im restlessly looking over stuff in the thread because i dont want to stop thinking about stuff but not getting much with it, probably need to go to me
rn im at like: zack sunbae hk ender as top villagers
still liked ben on a reread of him - in particular i felt like he spent a lot of time day 1 defending sunbae and winston, who are confirmed villager and likely villager, and if hes a wolf doing that hes closing off doors while not really working to push a ML anywhere
guess which internet cat forgot about the game
not me
2 random thoughts i have
1. i think raskol got sorced last night
2. vote: benneh
nevermind i already kinda dont feel it
vote: unvote
I really have to take some time to think about Ender. My initial reaction upon Ladd's flip was they weren't paired but as I read the thread overnight one of Zack's posts kinda dinged in my head about how weak their interaction was for their levels of suspicion. Then I reread end of day and saw that for someone that suspected Ladd, they really went hard in the paint to go after Newcomb instead.
Again, maybe the answer is just town going after different wolves but my feeling of the gamestate right now is that it's not the case.
Then we have the interaction with myself. I thought we were pretty cool throughout most of day one. Then I got rattled, said something silly, and backed off of it. Ladd questioned me but so did many others. And once that questioning started, Ender shifted me really far down the list with some caveat of whatever my explanation was pending.
My response was “I'm not doing that.”, the pressure on me just kind of dissipated, and then Ender said something like I was a villager and they were trying to trap me or goad me into making up and excuse as a wolf while “lol no” was the answer “they were hoping for”.
It feels slimy and opportunistic to me.
But there were a lot of periods during the day that I felt Ender was totally fine. I know I got kinda poo poo'd a bit for not pushing Ender early but I didn't really find him wolfy. Is it possible that it was some elaborate trap attempt that I passed? Sure, I guess. But is that the more likely scenario than “saw a villager do something dumb, tried to get something going, backed off when others stopped, and then went back to ignoring them”? I'm not sure.
I think if Newcomb is a wolf, Ender is certainly a villager. I think if Newcomb is a villager, I'm going to need a really long and in depth discussion with Ender about a lot of aspects of how d1 played out.
I have a ?potentially bad read? that I believe with all of my heart. It's that Benneh/Neb was frozen as heck at end of day in a way that makes him a villager. He flat out said he didn't want to vote Rask at end of day, the wagons became Ladd/Newcomb/Rask, and he voted Rask and talked about having no guts.
My experience with Benneh is that I believe wolf Benneh in a Ladd W/Newcomb V world would have no qualms pushing Newcomb over the top. He even had a post about how fun would it be if we flipped v newcomb.
I believe wolf Benneh in a Rask W world would not go back on his ?don't want to vote Rask? comment so quickly with a villager wagon available.
I believe wolf Benneh in a Ladd W/Newcomb W world would not be talking about not wanting to kill Cuth/Ender/Rask (who all would be villagers here) given there weren't many other options outside of wolves.
I believe villager Benneh could easily stare at that end of day, kind of feel all these wagons suck for various reasons, not really want to kill Ladd/Newcomb d1, kinda think others are towny, and just throw his hands up and vote Rask as a safer option.
?Wolf Benneh would be more pro wolf? is a take that I'm sure some will disagree with but it's what I believe, sorry.
it was primarily a sheeped read
also he had some stronger stuff in earlier bit
but also he felt like he did in that one turbo we played semi-recently where we also killed him d1
in the sort of uh idk
i never felt awesome about it but i did think v-ish i think directly after his posting earlier plus oh someone was pushing him in a kinda weird way (not ender)
I kinda felt like ladd's posts felt a little lacking or incomplete (I think the URLs should be swapped but too lazy to do so) and fell a bit short of what I have seen from ladd in mashes where ladd just is easily read as town, though I usually incorrectly scumread them, which is where the lack of confidence came from.
One part of this post is kinda not content, but then there is this other part of the post that has content, and that felt kinda odd to me.
There was other stuff I noted after my initial ladd read, and I probably should have dived deeper.
I remembered this being ew. (simple reason: LAMIST)
#568 was just soully bad, like I felt it in my soul though I do think I posted my reads before this? (I did but I noted it)
One thing I didn't note that should have probably been a dead giveaway was
bleh.
But again, I wasnt here EOD
well ok, I just got concerned after looking d1 again and seeing how relatively unconcerned newcomb seemed at people suspecting him and wasn't engaged during EOD despite being a suspect too, then d2 posts were stuff that he is perfectly capable of churning out as a wolf, posts like 1284 seemd like wolfy anger that was similar to some posts in rocks. thought maybe I'd got too caught up in the reasons I was using to townread newcomb and was possibly missing the forest for the trees.
dunno if newcomb blows up at me like that as a wolf
prob exactly one in {ender, newcomb} if i had to take a guess
don't really feel like posting more, c yall in 12 hours or so
i'm frankly shocked that people are still considering worlds in which ender is a wolf here
his progression on ladd makes basically no sense
and the way he's been playing is not how he'd play as a villager
idk if y'all are attributing playstyle differences to alignment-indicative stuff but its weird
and sorry for this tone but i am incredibly pooped atm i don't think it's ridiculous and people who think that are bad players or anything i just think it's pretty obvious from my reading
Oh I literally didn't order them, mostly I just kinda freeformed it
It's pretty obvious from the way I bolded my top scumreads. Not to mention I literally said that ladd was my least confident scumread, mostly because I usually always have a chip on my shoulder about them
specifically in the context of my conversation with ender about these reads, for the record
i was super pushing at what i thought was meh justification for his read on ladd, which was a bit counter to thread consensus at the time, and his reaction is to explain a bit more reasoning behind the exact same justification and then feel super defensive and double down on that
this is not how a wolf, or at least not how ender in particular as a wolf, plays distancing
I think Dobby has ticked all the towny dobby things I look for - including having his own main wolf read, being somewhat against the grain, and making some reads based on feels/vibes like the monstrtown and me whishywashy villa/wolf mixed with more normal progression/contradiction ones.
we've reached the stage of the game where im writing too many words that really dont matter and i feel like im wasting my time so instead ill just get me an orange juice and be more reactive rather than proactive for a while
alrighty i've read and digested this, and i like some bits of this wall but it also kind of encapsulates one of my grievances i've had with your slot all game ? but i'll get to that in a bit cause in the quotes i have a couple nitpicks
1. alright so like, i think i've only heard of one other person refer to a 'negative space' tell and it was... not to call someone a villager; it was them harping on in dvc about how X is an obvious wolf because of negative space... so i don't know if this is just different definitions since you are not ranmilia or if i'm misunderstanding it, but there's a distant screaming voice in my head saying that this is a super important thing to point out and ask what's up with that
2. i'm yet again not sold by a word you say about me. so like, earlier in the game i suspect you, and you respond with a post along the lines of "this is when i'm supposed to say that you don't have the balls to push me as a wolf, right?" which - yeah, okay, i can believe that. but then you go on to bring out this arbitrary "i think people who know of me would be willing to push me as a wolf more and i think katze might fit that criteria" read, which i am probably paraphrasing in a way to make it sound worse than it is but i still think is pretty bad. i was originally going to write a bit about how that post coexisting with the fact you're convinced a wolf MUST be pushing you is odd, but given EoD1 i've rescinded that thought because if you are a villager then there's good odds you're right about that.
anyway uh, so on day one your read on me is that i'm pushing you in bad faith, i fit the shoes of "the wolf who will push you for towncred", etc etc. and now your read on me today is like "yeah i guess nobody agreed with that. shrug. people are calling katze town off of meta so maybe they're just right.". and it's lazy.
maybe this is me again putting high expectations on you again, because i fully admit that i do have high expectations of you and if you were succdragon instead of newcomb i'd probably just shrug this wallpost off as villagery because i'm lazy. maybe this is me overestimating how much you know about me, or me being egotistical. i dunno.
but like, i'm pretty sure everybody who has expressed a townread on me has done so reluctantly because they know i'm a good wolf, some have flat out said it, some people might just find me wolfy, whatever. and then there's you, who almost died at the end of day 1 over ladd, and just apparently backread the entire game... and your read on the highest poster in the game, the person who has pushed you the most out of anyone, somebody who had a potentially extremely pivotal vote on you at the last moment of eod1, the person who you apparently suspected a decent chunk of the first day..........
weaksauce would be an understatement, tbh.Katze I'm kinda relying on others' meta who have said he's town, and no one else really had a problem with his approach to me, so.
Rask specifically wanted a Sunbae wagon and not exactly a ladd wagon
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