thats a damn shame
i want to sleepwalk to F3
Sleep is obviously gira
weird way to spell hally but you do you
anyway uh. i don't really know what to do because i still feel pretty good about my townreads, but i don't want to do nothing because i feel like that's how i get myself killed and then i'd be mildly sad
wait rly
i was like 95% sure it was hally lmao
shrug
theres no maj so
vote: monty
imo its either this or cape so
looking at the playerlist i kinda wish we kept ladd alive so they'd sorc n3 so the game ended faster cause id be pretty surprised if most of the alive playerlist was mafia
so like, Ima rest, might phonepost while half awake lol
who's not a wolf:
neb
katze
dobby
hk
who is unlikely a wolf:
raskol
sleep
cape
who could be a wolf:
cuth
monte
this is where I'm currently at. I think neb, katze, dobby are obvs town. I think there are very good reasons to town read raskol, cape, and sleep. I think we're on cruise control to chop monte and I have very little reason to town read them. I think managing to vote all three dead wolves on D1 is either god tier luck, god tier reads, or TMI.
Cuth is in the bottom tier instead of the middle tier b/c frankly I think they've dropped off pretty damn hard. But probably it's just monte
vote: monte
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
sunbae :(
oops wrt ender
this seems fine
dobby's just a villager
game seems straightforward
i don't think i'll have the energy to curry up huge oomphy work unless i absolutely have to but i'm here
also sorry for not showing up to eod
i don't really remember what happened yesterday but it would have been good to do that
Yeah @zack did yeoman's work this game.
a
Cuth hard-defended cape.
lol
I'll have you know I read 5 posts from a game in progress last year and identified the entire mafia team cold. I may stink but I have a solid radar.
Context though.
If Sleep is Hally then I do feel much worse about her on principle alone, since Hally went ultra-deep in Mass Effect, the Org game here a year ago and spiritual counterpart to this one. So if I've liked Sleep's play I have to doubt myself based on her being a Hally alt.
Thankfully it's not Hally so the above doesn't apply.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
What can I say, Zack and Sunbae had a great game. Cuth or katze are good candidates for final scum. But Cuth might be spewed town by Ender spending most of EOD whining that Cuth wouldn't sheep his case on NC even though Cuth TLed him, unless you think that's part of the same sort of theater as Ender-ladd. Anyone remember that? Just reread EOD1.
What I think happened now - my theory for EOD1 - is that 2 scum were AFK, Ender was present almost flailing with his vote parked on Newcomb throughout, and katze was in there without much thread presence finally dropping a vote onto Newcomb 1 minute out.
It could be Sleep or Dobby too playing a similar role with votes on NC and Rask respectively, but I doubt it, and that's up for others to sort since this game looks more like my Mass Effect a year ago without the super-deep mafia.
Vote: Katze
She has too been posting like SOD3 threw her for a loop.
My final answer is katze; I shan't afford another. ggwp
Unfortunately I can't go beyond myself without breaking the game.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
vote: cuth
not a meme. I?ll elaborate on this tomorrow after I sleep on it and read a bit more
i dont understand what approximately any of this means
i was the top poster d1 what do you mean "without much thread presence"
like i guess i wasn't dominating the thread because thats not how i operate (especially as town, yes im selfmetaing here sue me) but if i really wanted to i could have and i had ladd/newcomb telling me to decide the eod yeet so if i had nefarious intentions it'd have been pretty easy to push them
and uh, sod3 didn't throw me for a loop but i entered thread while playing video games with my sister and then saw bladescape had the vest and everyone saying he was lolcatting when he was doing the same stuff he did the last time he played this setup and got a vest (as town) so i figured he was just being theatrical again
then came back to see he was a wolf which did kind of throw me for a loop yes
you and hk are gonna need to sell me on cuth not just being a villager cause i feel like this is a vote that is really bad at a glance and im not going to open an iso because im leaving the thread lmao pce
what if:
I guess the big question of the day is this: was there a wolf on Ladd and given their role and given the way the wagon flashed out of nowhere I'm inclined to think wolves were trying to save Ladd more so than gain credit from being on his wagon. Obvs they could not be flashy about saving him b/c it would out them.
But here's a thing:
This is the vote count from 18 minutes before EOD:
Notice a complete and utter lack of Ladd wagon other than the lone Winston vote.
Here we have one wolf on newcomb, one wolf on sleep, and one wolf on raskol. I think none of those are buses.
Then we have the next count:
It's 12 minutes later and the Cuth wagon has vanished. Ladd still at 1 vote, Cuth has moved to Winston, the Raskol wagon has also dropped a voter.
One minute to go:
6 wagons with 2 votes each. At this point there is no telling who is going to go over. Nobody can claim any kind of credit from Ladd at this point as there's no real push other than from winston to get people voting for Ladd. He's the only one stumping for the chop here.
Contrast with the final vote count:
I think this shows Raskol and Sleep are town. If they are goons they are both bused to save Ladd here. I say this because again there was not a huge impetus to save Ladd. His wagon grew organically and votes were flying pretty quickly in the last minute or so of the game day.
I think it also shows that there was not a coordinated bus effort on Ladd. Kinda want to clear his whole wagon which is why I posted the first "what if" at the top.
I want to add Cuth to the "can't be a wolf here" bucket b/c why does he vote his PR on the back of Winston asking for Ladd votes when Cuth was voting Winston moments before he votes Ladd? It doesn't add up to me. I know Cuth is an insanely good player as both alignments but still, there's literally zero reasons to move to Ladd here as wolf goon when you can just stay on Raskol, not to mention moving off of Raskol puts the Cuth wagon clearly in the lead by 2 votes which is quite a bit to overcome in the last couple minutes of a game day. It did happen so it's not impossible but still, unlikely to me that Cuth is a wolf.
Then there is the monte question. I said earlier he had votes on each of the dead wolves on D1 and ended his day on the Ladd wagon.
Before that though he is pretty much parked on Raskol in the run up to the end of the day. Like Cuth what is the impetus to move to Ladd, what does wolf?Monte gain from doing that. I argue it's the same thing with Cuth. Monte wasn't highly suspected during D1, there was no gamestate reason for Monte to reach for credit like this. He also doesn't make much noise in terms of trying to capitalize on said credit.
I would argue Monte is town for the same reasons here.
So Rask, Sleep, Cuth, Monte town
Leaving
HK
Dobby
Neb
Katze
Cape
Remove myself, remove Dobby, remove Neb. Leaves Katze and Cape.
This is where I get stuck tbh. I can find reasonable reasons to town read both of them.
vote: katze
gonna try this on for a while and see how it feels.
he was drawing a reasonable amount of heat for being inactive most of the day, especially from zack
i also felt like he tried to put momentum on newcomb/rask start of day 2 which is certainly not doing nothing. possible to be town who drew the wrong conclusions, i certainly did, but this desnt really fit my view
(also i had a very dumb shower thought this morning)
I might feel better about that if there was any kind of real wagon on monte throughout the day, or if his wagon was greater than just sunbae at the end there. Like ok, if monte is wolf and rightly suspected by obvs town sunbae and obvs town zack it would make sense to me to see that wagon grow at the end of the day instead of Ladd going over. That's the tricky bit for me. Monte was suspected for being inactive, taking a gamble on Ladd being wolf vs pushing "inactive monte" seems like a large oversight on the part of the wolf team and not one that I'd expect competent wolves like Ladd and Ender to make.
I think monte absolutely could have gone over D1 if people had wanted him to, but they didn't.
Like on the one hand I can see wolfLadd telling wolf?Katze "go ahead and do whatever you want to do I'm pretty sure I'm not going over"
otoh I can see wolfLadd putting "bad reads town Katze" "in charge" of leading EOD b/c Ladd knows Katze isn't pushing on any of his team mates.
as wolf i might hard burn after d1 if i actually screwed ladd over like that to make sure i don't get too much towncred but i sure as hell am not absolutely dropping off the map afterwards
but ok if you have serious concerns i'll try to spend more time on this game than i would otherwise
lmk if there's stuff you'd like me to address in particular
i don't have any up to date thoughts really and need to focus in on specific stuff to hone the ideas i do have and i'll do what seems best when i can but feel free to request
more to the point with monty he literally self-inserted the meta excuse of having voted and unvoted to bring people up to a tie in the past and legitimately tried to unvote to tie wagons w/ ladd
which is like pretty decent cred if they don't think ladd is gonna survive which is a bit ? but
but i also don't think that many other people really wanted to vote ladd, it wasn't even really a guarantee that rask would self pres there vs elsewhere
voting third on the wagon and then unvoting is bizarre and i would feel a lot better about it if he didn't literally cite an example of him doing it as v sod2 lol
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