Sorceror 17er Game Thread

[Newcomb]

Cuth you've had a couple strong reads that I don't really grasp the core of. Cape and Ender both being strong v for you.

Where does that strength come from? I can ask in a different way if you want, I know that's kind of a broad way of asking.

[EnderWiggin]

#1149

I actually like this post. Bar the mild "Oh Cuth didn't die?" derptell which feels fake. But also wagon position on Ladd was probably good?

I kinda like Sleep's daystart in general.

#1171

I'm in confbias territory now but like, this post is a post I can see wolf!Newcomb making after not thinking Ladd was in danger at EOD and then the flashwagon on his partner appears.

-- I'm going to point out that it looks like Dolby entered today to try and pocket me.

#1205

As of this post I'm pretty sure Neb/NC are unpaired.

#1210

I'll actually have to check this after I'm done catching up. If Zack is right and Ladd really didn't defend Newc at all and WAS around after I dropped case and pushed, it might actually be signs pointing in the "I'm wrong" direction.

#1230

If I am wrong on Newc is this the angle that I was pocketed at? (Talking about Sleep not Zack)

#1233

Ladd/Sleep/HK/? =P

#1236

Neb comes to mind immediately, I'd have to think about this more for other names.

#1247

If it's Cape and Newc as the other two wolves this post becomes more hilarious. (Both unflipped wolves basically templated the same opener today.)

Kinda want to unpair Cape/Neb for 1257/1258

#1260

Is it a bad read if I call this a town post? Legit seems to be dismissive/annoyed at Dolby before he flipped. Might be a bad read but I'm actually pretty confident in it.

1263/1264 are mildly wolf leaning IMO for Neb

#1272

In my defense I hadn't seen your post saying the same thing yet =P

#1281

I think this post never comes from w/v worlds for Newc/Neb. Or not w!Newcomb/V!Neb worlds. If Newcomb flips red I am willing to bet anything that Neb flips red too.

#1284

That post is NAI. I stand by the reads I do use.

Is it bad that I read Newc lashing out at Zack as possibly towny? Probably yes.

#1330

This is actually a mildly convincing take lmao.

#1411

This is a pretty ballsy post for a wolf to make tbh. I kinda like it.

#1426

Dare I say this looks good for Newcomb? Dare I?

Rask's catchup is meh but also probably not AI.

Dobby's catchup is kinda meh. Also I believe Rask's "Oh Dolby is mafia" more than Dobby's.

I like Benneh's reads in the next sequence (Not at all because he calls me town what are you talking about)

#1500

Derp tell denied.

The rest I'm kinda vagueish on as my brain is struggling to keep going.

I didn't see anything particularly AI but need to dig into the posting a bit more.

--

Thus concludes my lacklustre wall of returns.

[EnderWiggin]

@Sleep

I had a migraine yesterday. Expect me to be around and posting today.

I'll tell you straight up that if you look at any game I've played on this site or others then you'll find I have no issues posting no matter my alignment. If I'm out of thread it is always due to irl. Yesterday thinking was painful, so I spent 90% of the day in bed.

Today you'll have me around intermittently.

[Sleep]

@Sleep

I had a migraine yesterday. Expect me to be around and posting today.

I'll tell you straight up that if you look at any game I've played on this site or others then you'll find I have no issues posting no matter my alignment. If I'm out of thread it is always due to irl. Yesterday thinking was painful, so I spent 90% of the day in bed.

Today you'll have me around intermittently.

yeah i was just confused, glad to hear you're feeling better

[EnderWiggin]

yeah i was just confused, glad to hear you're feeling better

I'm glad I'm feeling better too =P

[nebjiamn]

#1149

I actually like this post. Bar the mild "Oh Cuth didn't die?" derptell which feels fake. But also wagon position on Ladd was probably good?

I kinda like Sleep's daystart in general.

#1171

I'm in confbias territory now but like, this post is a post I can see wolf!Newcomb making after not thinking Ladd was in danger at EOD and then the flashwagon on his partner appears.

-- I'm going to point out that it looks like Dolby entered today to try and pocket me.

#1205

As of this post I'm pretty sure Neb/NC are unpaired.

#1210

I'll actually have to check this after I'm done catching up. If Zack is right and Ladd really didn't defend Newc at all and WAS around after I dropped case and pushed, it might actually be signs pointing in the "I'm wrong" direction.

#1230

If I am wrong on Newc is this the angle that I was pocketed at? (Talking about Sleep not Zack)

#1233

Ladd/Sleep/HK/? =P

#1236

Neb comes to mind immediately, I'd have to think about this more for other names.

#1247

If it's Cape and Newc as the other two wolves this post becomes more hilarious. (Both unflipped wolves basically templated the same opener today.)

Kinda want to unpair Cape/Neb for 1257/1258

#1260

Is it a bad read if I call this a town post? Legit seems to be dismissive/annoyed at Dolby before he flipped. Might be a bad read but I'm actually pretty confident in it.

1263/1264 are mildly wolf leaning IMO for Neb

#1272

In my defense I hadn't seen your post saying the same thing yet =P

#1281

I think this post never comes from w/v worlds for Newc/Neb. Or not w!Newcomb/V!Neb worlds. If Newcomb flips red I am willing to bet anything that Neb flips red too.

#1284

That post is NAI. I stand by the reads I do use.

Is it bad that I read Newc lashing out at Zack as possibly towny? Probably yes.

#1330

This is actually a mildly convincing take lmao.

#1411

This is a pretty ballsy post for a wolf to make tbh. I kinda like it.

#1426

Dare I say this looks good for Newcomb? Dare I?

Rask's catchup is meh but also probably not AI.

Dobby's catchup is kinda meh. Also I believe Rask's "Oh Dolby is mafia" more than Dobby's.

I like Benneh's reads in the next sequence (Not at all because he calls me town what are you talking about)

#1500

Derp tell denied.

The rest I'm kinda vagueish on as my brain is struggling to keep going.

I didn't see anything particularly AI but need to dig into the posting a bit more.

--

Thus concludes my lacklustre wall of returns.

curious how you go from “newc and neb are unpaired” into me making the most sense on a newc/Dolby team into me and newc being w/w in all worlds where newc flips red?

I don’t see progression for it in the post so forgive me for the boring self-centered questions

[Zack]

#1149

I actually like this post. Bar the mild "Oh Cuth didn't die?" derptell which feels fake. But also wagon position on Ladd was probably good?

You say you like the post without explanation and then criticize part of it as feeling fake. Why do you like the post?

What do you think of Monty trying to unvote ladd?

[EnderWiggin]

curious how you go from ?newc and neb are unpaired? into me making the most sense on a newc/Dolby team into me and newc being w/w in all worlds where newc flips red?

I don?t see progression for it in the post so forgive me for the boring self-centered questions

The end result is "Actually is Neb and Newc town?"

But that was mostly just my unfiltered reactions when I had a specific take. I haven't properly like, homogenised my world.

[EnderWiggin]

You say you like the post without explanation and then criticize part of it as feeling fake. Why do you like the post?

What do you think of Monty trying to unvote ladd?

The whole "Overlooking scum multiwagons" bit and the fact that it's obviously work prepared overnight. Also other than your placement on it I kinda vibed with the order of the list.

The unvote... I don't know how I feel about it.

Would w!Monty try to unvote at the last second to put w!Ladd in rand?

Like I guess if he gets lucky and Ladd survives then it could work out, but otherwise it just feels like a move I don't see wolves make.

[EnderWiggin]

Also town do dumb faked derptells too which is why that note didn't undermine the post

[Sleep]

ok so now i feel like its appropriate to talk about this:

Ender I think is the bad apple in the bunch for essentially 3 reasons: 1) his push on me felt the most opportunistic, especially at EoD. 2) his case on me was so paint-by-numbers that I'd wager a large sum of money that no one ITT could paraphrase it without actually going back to look at it, and 3) there are a lot of interactions with ladd - some of which you've pointed out yourself - that feel like they aren't actually interested in solving each others' alignment. Couple of those that stood out to me in my catchup so far:

i have a significant issue with the bolded in that it doesnt really fit my perception of how ender and ladd acted toward one another and having a singular pair of quotes as the example is kind of weak

so i went and compiled the interactions so as to save folks the legwork:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i don't like ender's way of posting (almost all of his posts are answer to other quotes and in last page he answered newcomb's post which was the last one and then went back to answer cuth's whose post was before and gave me "posting just to post" vibes). Both of these things are >rand w ime

for context, this is ladds first post with real content in the game. ender is the first person he tries to push. there are some wolves who go heavy on the distancing in early game but it feels less likely to me here

Amateur tip:
Interactions with people are a solid way to build reads.

Gimme a sec, gotta quote backwards to make Ladd sus me more.

So, talk to me Zack. Been a long time since you and I tangoed. Last time we ordered pizza.

the way he goes out of his way to snipe at ladd for his reason for wolfreading doesnt feel that aligned to me?

Fair.

I think that more comes from time since you last seen me but I can't be bothered linking meta because that's boring play.

I'll either win you over or get voted out at some point.

(in reply to zack)

do you have a read on me/zack's push on you?

you seem to care more to argue the argument than to sort if we are wolves pushing you iyam

Zack I don't remember well enough, but I don't think it's super AI for him. So I'm just pending more stuff from him.

You? Honestly, I disliked the read. I'll get back to you on my stances once I finish catching up.

i do think ender reaction to zack/mine (but especially zack really) push is the wolfiest thing in an overall p villagery thread

i'll give you the advantage too

enderwiggin

katze treatement of newcomb this game is pretty much a carbon copy of how he treated me as v/v in the poisoner invitational 21er afair

except he gave me d1 freepass (and i did get n1ed)


and i dont really think they'd play like this as a wolf

Kinda vibe with this read.

Also I like Katze's humour esp around the sleep wagon/etc so

this segment here is maybe a bit weird where he just agrees with a read from ladd despite sussing him

Uh lemme parse my thoughts into lists.

I dislike Ladd's treatment of me particularly. The read on me (The whole "Backwards quoting" thing) feels entirely forced and also liiiike, unrealistic.

Raskol is obvious scum because of his lack of posts.

Sunbae I was leaning townish but the whole Monstr/Cuth read feels like he realised he fucked up and backed up. Pending explanation that makes my brain do the good wobly jelly I'm going to stare at him.

Monstr feels weaksauce.

I was townreading Cape but the whole Sleep thing is making me wonder.

WRT Ladd I absolutely could see it. But I also think like, he's jumped onto this small thing like a bull terrier and hasn't even bothered to think deeper about it. Like he's got his excuse to push me, doesn't see any solid defense of me, so he's just happy to sit on it and exist without re-evalling.

I think V or W Ladd focuses more on the active players at this point. Active players for town can give you something. Active players for wolves are dangerous and voting the low impact sorta afk people is something I only see newer wolves do. Unless an experienced wolf has a good reason.

I'm kinda tired and meh rn. I'm gonna go play Gloomhaven for a while and then I'll come back and see if I can put my serious pants on for y'all.

can you write a couple of sentences on who you'd lunch right now and why

You.

Because of *Spins wheel* Prejudice. Wait no that's not right.

Because I feel like you haven't evaluated my slot at any point after you made your "Reading backwards is a wolf tell" read which is both not a read I believe is accurate and also a weak as fuck first read.

Monstr for the weak approach and being there in a meh capacity. Also the post about trying more as wolf pings badly on my "But if I was wolf I would" ping. (Yes, I do that as town. Shut up.)

Katze because I can't live with someone better than me at lyrical genius around.

I want to prelude that these reads are subject to change with revision and half of them are jokes.

i gotta have the highest omgus per push STATS on MU

but thanks anyway

If you can't beat em, join em.

Vote: ladd

vote:ender

maybe i randed wolf so much in these things that I forgot how to village lol

dunno game seems very hard to me now. I could see it going...a lot of different ways and am just down to get some flips

sleep will prob get villaread for his posts since i went to sleep but imo they are pretty bad. he really reminds me of myself when i have a wolfread as a wolf and i just keep forcing seeeing my wolfread's posts as wolfy instead of trying to see if i am possibly wrong

newcomb/hk are both bad wagons imo

i dont really feel that great about ender being a wolf either quite frankly, i just have no better ideas besides a shruglunch and see you all tomorrow

theres some commentary from me in there but not a ton, but the tl;dr is that ladd went after ender from literally the start of the game and they pretty consistently took potshots at each other throughout the day. theres worlds where some wolves go heavy on the distancing but i kind of doubt either of them chooses to play it that way? you can maybe squint your eyes at ladd walking back his ender read late in the day but i could just as easily see that as distancing himself from a v flip.

but regardless acting like "they werent trying to solve each other" is...kind of a weird descriptor to me. theres a a decent amount of tension there, i felt, and stuff like ladd remarking about how he gets omgused on his pushes didnt seem like a reaction to a partner


but the "werent trying to solve each others alignments" accusation is notable because...thats exactly how i felt about ladd and newcomb on day 1. see below:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

i don't like ender's way of posting (almost all of his posts are answer to other quotes and in last page he answered newcomb's post which was the last one and then went back to answer cuth's whose post was before and gave me "posting just to post" vibes). Both of these things are >rand w ime

I'll definitely grant you "posting just to post" although I can't say Ender's posts really gave me that vibe strongly, but what in your experience makes the post timing thing - answering the last post then going back to answer something from before- a wolf thing?

Doing a mental parse of my own games it kind of feels more like something I'd tend to do more as a villager - like, if you're actually in the moment and invested in a conversation you get a bit disorganized and out of order. Not that that's what happened here since it's not like there was a riveting conversation going on. More interested in the theory I guess, tangential.

i applied it more to turbos/mashes than normal games (and I also noticed it first in my own wolf games iirc)

sometimes as a wolf you see a post where you feel like you either 1) have to answer to or 2) have a smart answer to but to look like you didnt just pop in to answer that post you then also latch onto a random other post that happened before



i do think ender reaction to zack/mine (but especially zack really) push is the wolfiest thing in an overall p villagery thread


newcomb seems an obvious villager imo

u can maybe say this looks like a pocket, but its really a total softball question from newcomb and ladd doesnt look threatened by it at all, its kind of a nothing interaction

I don't.... *think" zack is buddying me? I can't really come up with a mental map of what I think is the counterexample of how he'd play it as a wolf beyond "different than this" and that bothers me a little but not enough to really do anything about it.

Semi-mostly unrelated I think right now ladd has about the closest game perspective to mine.

Attachment 25400

so again theres this buddying up between them, but theres never really any discussion of WHY he agrees with ladds perspective, and its honestly weird given he said he said he doesnt get the vibe that ender is "posting just to post", so like...what is there to agree with him on?to that point ladd had a handful of villager reads and was pushing ender and sunbae

katze treatement of newcomb this game is pretty much a carbon copy of how he treated me as v/v in the poisoner invitational 21er afair

except he gave me d1 freepass (and i did get n1ed)


and i dont really think they'd play like this as a wolf

are you saying you're not gonna n1 me?

annoying. I can get deeper into your pocket if it would help

this is also just a weirdass post that can easily be wolf cheekiness. like its kind of weird that hes just playful with him but not seriously discussing stuff?

- I kinda think Ladd is a wolf but I will begrudgingly refrain from doing anything about it because the one thing I'm pretty good at concerning werewolf is understanding my place in a threadstate and I know barking up that tree with just get me scoffed at currently.

- I think both Newc and Zack are villagers getting pocketed by Ladd. I think the way they've handled this game day is in line with my feelings of villager them. Newcomb's post asking Katze about Cape/Sleep being the main reason there.

I've definitely had thoughts along those lines fwiw

this is also notable because he seemingly acknowledges paranoia on ladd, but it literally never comse up again and he seems to trust him entirely again in the later posts at eod

lets let katze lead eod

I'm surprisingly okay with this.

@katze you are in charge

monkaS

Zack/ladd you guys both pretty sanguine on katze?

I'm still thinking his treatment of me feels p slimey / performative but that's been read decay-ing overnight.

ya, the villa read on him is actually the one I felt less doubt on overall

id be surprised if they wolfing

again, this is also...super weird? katze was newcombs main wolfread and he just kind of drops it because ladd said so

and again he had just expressed to sunbae the possibility he was getting pocketed by ladd shouldnt he be concerned that ladd is deflecting away from katze? but he just drops it with no real elaboration

and it doesnt feel like hes trying to solve ladd, like at all

vote:sleep

i'll follow my heart

I can live with that I think

Vote: sleep

katze,

i have played exactly 1 game with newcomb (tho I have read a bunch), idr have experience with them

i just think they are genuinely trying to solve the game

and again, this defense of newcomb from ladd is absolutely nothing, no backing at all

so yeah, im not the best at spotting bussing unless its like, really bad, but imho newcomb looks...way, way worse from ladd interactions than ender does? like newcomb showed exactly 0 critical thought into ladds alignment and was super hands off in talking to him, ladd didnt look pressured at all. this would maybe be understandable if they were familiar with each other but theyve even said they havnt played together much, so this approach just doesnt make sense to me as v/w.

and this isnt a purely associative read, i thought ender was more villagery on individual merits and that hasnt really changed for me

[Sleep]

i shuld also say: theres these posts from ender about monstr, decide for yourself how they look:

Honestly feels kinda a weird take when you're pushing a wagon that was entirely (I think?) a meme to actually be in contention.

Hey look, Zack and I agree on something.

monstrbro
Weak. Like I haven't seen anything from them that feels like a solid take that holds water.

i honestly feel like this is a fairly good look for ender - while its possible

i have already said i feel its entirely possible monstr asked to be bussed, but i feel like in concert with the ladd stuff this is just more likely a villager than anything? generally if wolves are going for the strat of hellbussing each other like crazy day 1 they dont tae their foot off the gas at the last minute.

its possible i have the wrong angle on this and for wolves it was convenient to try to get me/newcomb as TvT wagons with them taking opposite sides. but looking at the posts im not sure i see it, if i am missing something here please tell me

[Sleep]

lol i had a sentence left in there from an earlier writing but i tempered my read on thinking about it, please ignore the first line after the quotes

[Montmorency]

(hopefully this isnt strike 2)

This is ladd spewing nebbie partner, it's just my hunch.

I'm hoping that if I said 0-1 in [Sleep, Zack, HK, Neb, Newc, Cuth] I'd be correct

why cuth?

Could be noteworthy wrt Cuth one way or another.

i give up on making gifs, i have tried all the options

Because I don't think Cuth/Monstr work together

alrighty, why do you feel that strongly about monstr being a wolf?

FTR this and the previous are in retrospect pretty blatant sunbae townspew. Kinda don't think ladd would display this kind of defensive attitude about two partners in a row with the same player (Cuth+Monstr), but YMMV.

Honestly feels kinda a weird take when you're pushing a wagon that was entirely (I think?) a meme to actually be in contention.

Monstr feels weaksauce.

Have to record these two shades against Monstr by Ender. He also calls Monstr weak in his reads list later on.

Cool, 175 posts in 4 hours. I'll blind- Vote: Monstrbro for that.

Above rand chance this is a wolf

call me a top townread and ill vote u too

Katze top town

You may attempt to launch me now

Newcomb

Ftr the above is why I like to leave a lot of my reads inside my head

Outing them can often make things worse, esp if you're not sure

kek

Vote: Dobby

There can only be one

think HK is towny in the early game (<120)

think Dobby is not

kinda think that there aren't more than 1 partner agreeing with ladd's early ender read

Spew or antispew?

[Sunbae]

hello

[Sunbae]

I have a series of questions for various people, then I'll try and get some big picture thoughts in

[Newcomb]

just wanted to say Monstrdude is likely a member of the village

Well okay I have more to say but not before I read more :D

Seems lightly not w/w. I think the partner version probably comes with another sentence or two?

[Montmorency]

Lmao wait was dolby wolf

I was pretty sure monstr wouldn't play like that as wolf but I'm also bad at this game, wp csargo

It do be that way sometimes.

no, I said you were so unmemorable it is like you're not playing.

It do be that way sometimes.

I didn't pay attention to it at all :p am on phone at my uncles house and supposed to be socialising so i might dig into that later tonight/tomorrow

I did have one ladd post early that I commented on a few times like, how he had one of his first posts making a list of 5 people that seemed really out of nowhere.. I don't remember if money was in that one

Mo' money, more 'rency.

[Sunbae]

Lmao wait was dolby wolf

I was pretty sure monstr wouldn't play like that as wolf but I'm also bad at this game, wp csargo

Oh lol, I just saw that dolby gor blown up, cool, then I can finally trust that sunbae is actually bae for real <3

Dobby, can you explain to me these two posts like 5 hours apart?

[Visor]

Players Votes

EnderWiggin 2 (zack, Raskolnikov)
nebjiamn 1 (Montmorency)
Montmorency 1 (Cuthillius)
hollowkatt 1 (Dobby)
Dobby 1 (hollowkatt)


1610

i believe this is correct

[Montmorency]

ladd is townreading benneh zack hk bc they're all following him and agreed with his push. I'm gonna call all of them town.

That random sunbae vote whack af though, especially when he can just vote Ender here and is townreading three people for pushing Ender (imo at least). Completely unsubstantiated across multiple posts at this post (including his first which I didn't include here). Don't think it can't be w/w

The pull of Rule of 3 is very strong here. Note for reference this is just mundane spew of sunbae, so I have to wonder how fancy Dolby was really getting here. However, Dolby does attempt to convey (at least subliminally) anti-pairs amoing ender/sunbae, zack/hk, and NC/nebbie. Zack and Sunbae are of course cleared, and I would struggle to believe that Dolby would just out his whole team within these sets. But he also wouldn't exclude them all, since that leaves Cuth/Rask/Dobby/Cape/katze/sleep.

Structural reads reinforce my gut.

(Secretly I'm not sure I know what I'm talking about, but I'll leave these musings as is.)

vote: dolby

this guy is probably town

Thank you for completing the request. Unfortunately, all I can offer you are experience points.

I was not piggybacking off anyones reads on newcomb. I expressed a wolf read on newcomb way before that post. When newcomb came back later in the day, he was posting on a manner that I DID NOT wolf read at the time because it was, well, very aloof, like I said. I know newcomb is capable of posting strong as a wolf so I didn?t want immediately ascribe that as wolfy for him because I considered a world where he was indeed just a villager taking it easy and not entirely in tune with the thread.

the last post was a joke because you did something I don?t remember now when I voted or expressed suspicion on someone you were votning. I am not going to bother responding to the posts about me claiming to be wolf with you, newcomb, and katze or being the mafia stalker, cause lol

Hmm

this was the tally when newcomb was fucking around during EOD and seemingly not really caring what happened

if he's a wolf then likely no wolves were seemingly in danger at this time (and honestly everyone above ladd there could be town and it wouldnt shock me)

It's the best case scenario for us. Although if Newcomb is town... yeah, Monstr and ladd were AFK but could all of the Mafia have been caught with their pants down? Also, going off that tally nebbie and katze should never be paired with Cuth and probably not with each other.

also i just had this thought but: the sorc and backup shouldnt necessarily out, if the sorc target is a wolf they have every incentive to let the prs out themselves and then kill one. this is somewhat dependent on whoever is the bomber for today but prefer no claiming here just yet

I never thought of that. Very helpful, in principle.

montmorency had kind of a funny reaction to winston voting ladd where he asked "is this a bit?" which kinda makes me raise my eyebrow a bit

but im not sure he does the vote -> "whats the tally" -> unvote thing as a wolf

Winston was just performing the standard CFD reaction test of the thread (and well). I was testing him personally throughout that EOD, culminating in joining his ladd wagon. Day 1 was basically about textbook wagon manipulation. It's a pretty transparent sort of thing once the observer is taken out of the heat of the moment.

actually a funny thing i just noticed in his iso: ladd made a big deal about how the people he voiced suspicion of (ender, sunbae, zack) pushed back on him (and sort of tried to preemptively discredit me doing it, lol), but basically didnt comment on cape calling him a suspect

Interesting.

this + the rest of the sleep interactions following this post + the confusion/request for knowing sleep's real identity + the rest of my sleep read all look real good for sleep

but i would be lying if i didn't mention the tinfoil light of my brain turns on wondering if this wasn't an elaborate w/w back and forth

Cape-nebbie not paired?

Oh yeah this was gonna be part of that too, just pretend those comments are fleshed out into appropriately Newcomb(TM) sounding sentences.

Rough list of antialignments:

Zack/Ender - early fluidity
Sunbae/Zack - wild treatment of me if w/w/w with ladd; careful respect+suspect type posts of each other early D1
Dobby/Sleep - dobby careful treatment + extra detail interacting with cape read, 116
Ender/HK - early antagonism didn't feel fake
Sunbae/HK - 238, timing
Cape/Rask - cape confusing rask for winston with the winston v flip

Interesting.

I believe wolf Benneh in a Ladd W/Newcomb W world would not be talking about not wanting to kill Cuth/Ender/Rask (who all would be villagers here) given there weren't many other options outside of wolves.

I believe villager Benneh could easily stare at that end of day, kind of feel all these wagons suck for various reasons, not really want to kill Ladd/Newcomb d1, kinda think others are towny, and just throw his hands up and vote Rask as a safer option.

?Wolf Benneh would be more pro wolf? is a take that I'm sure some will disagree with but it's what I believe, sorry.

Keeping for reference, my intended comment has become unclear or obsolete.

Ugh fine I'll respond to that. Just know that this is not something I usually do and you're getting the benefit of some residual guilt w/r/t Zack

... okay I don't know how to respond to that. Was there a question there? Like... Zack is town because he's posted a lot of stuff and I haven't found any of it wolfy, and generally wolves who post that much I find something wolfy about? Generally "negative space" is like, the important thing is what ISN'T there, not what IS there. In this case what's not there is him being wolfy? Right? Like I'm kinda baffled what's confusing about that or even what you're getting at with this. The fuck does ranmilla have to do with anything ITT?

I'm really sorry if this sounds like... uhh dismissive or bad or something but man I don't know you, I don't know how you play. I mentored you one time like 3 years ago and while I remember some of the theory we talked about IIRC you were a villager in that game. You mentioned a champs game on D1 like it was something I'd know, but I haven't read or really even followed champs for like 2 years now. I'm sure you're an awesome wolf I just don't like, have that in my air supply.

I'm not exactly expressing a townread on you, I'm expressing a "I held a wolfread on you for as long as it made sense, and my attention has now wandered onto other things" read.

If you're looking for more than that idk what to tell you. I'll get to you when and if something occurs to me.

Strong post.

I think katze might be a wolf btw. their defense / reason for townreading dolby today was ... pretty rough

She went after Dolby though?

[Montmorency]

more of the story comes in here where I am surprised that Mont didnt get vested for this :p

This was before Csargo's claim - how did you know I wasn't vested? This isn't even AI, since no one other than Sunbae and Csargo could have known I wasn't vested. Unless you were discreetly referencing his soft at the beginning of the day??

You're wasting your time

Indeed, also Visor came to me in a dream.

I don't know what the optimum play is here, so you can all get mad at me if you want, but it's probably preferable for you all not to investigate someone who's a dead man already.

Csargo's second and third softs.

Nah, no reason to be mad. Was hoping you were villa, glgl.

I'm sorc. Thought it was best to target a villager that wasn't being cleared by anyone. If I target a poe wolf they just blast the top villager and it's bad, hitting a villager in that spot clears out poe better and can still hit that same poe wolf (or a better one!). Figure it's correct for me to claim now since even if you're a wolf we have a backup and it can't be stopped.

@Sunbae For the record you have had the purest tone out of the whole list. You were not long for this world anyway. RIP sweet prince, cut comment about Sunbae's reads.

I felt so bad for Zack once I realized what was happening and he was wrong for very right reasons lol. That opener was fake af

Please pull up the referent? Softed?

Also, please vest me tonight. I'm the only one here who can be relied upon not to bomb you or Zack, other than Zack (and if you are perceived to be vesting Zack for his talents, there is no universe in which Zack survives the night, wasting the opportunity). I'm a wildcard for the mafia, unless they're laughing at me from deep in my POE, so they'll cross their fingers and let me slide into their D(ay)Ms.

Anyways:

Cuth/Rask/Mont were obviously not the choices. They voted out a wolf.

I debated Newcomb. Ended up thinking it was possible counterwagon newcomb could die in the night which would be terrible.

I didn't want to hit any of the newcomb pushers (Katze, Ender, Sleep) because if Newcomb is a wolf they should be pretty clear?

After reading I had villa reads on Dobby/Benneh/Zack and thought they were all villa read by multiple people.

That left a pool of Monstr, Cape, Hollowkatt, Csargo

I kinda think Monstr is a wolf and would feel bad to give a vest to Dolby on sub in.

Cape and HK had some vocal defenders.

Left csargo who i kinda thought was a villager after reading eod.

Not 100% sure I played this correctly, but shrug

Optimal reasoning.

but seriously, whats the point of the stalker?

Yes. You can have this one for today.

[Montmorency]

I'm going to go with, for D2/3, shield Cuth, Rask, (Zack, Sunbae), Sleep, HK, katze. I just don't see more than one deep in here, maybe none. Maybe even toss ender in their when Zack isn't looking.

There are still no better candidates for ouster than Nebbie, unless someone wants to make a fresh case on Cape or Dobby. NC has seen a lot of strong defenses, so we have to allow that to play out for a bit, but I hope we would agree that NC should be resolved before anyone on his D1 wagon?

How I feel reading Zack, katze, Sunbae, and others' unique takes on NC's alignment.



Dobby and Cape remain blind spots for me in generating usable opinions of them, though earlier commentary by Cuth and Nebbie introduced some suspicion that at least can hopefully be expanded into anti-pairing.

the wording here is so interesting

i know a few people have claimed to know who sleep is but this just feels .. TMI from wolf chat?

i also don't like the way monstr hand-waves a village read on sleep's big post later on

does anyone want to sanity check me here? feel free to call me a bumbling idiot for this one but i can't shake this + the other suspicions i have on sleep re: the ladd/sleep interactions

Can you rephrase what this question is about? Also, in your post chain I feel like your progression on HK is too rapid and pretextual, from Monstr-spewed to Dolby anti-spewed (if I'm not misunderstanding).

zack
Sunbae
Newcomb

nebjiamn

cuthillius
Raskolnikov
Montmorency

EnderWiggin
roro__b
katze
Sleep
Cape90
hollowkatt

How likely is it both wolves in the bottom section? Gotta say I'm kind of going over various pairs of them in my head and none of them kind of intuitively click as "ah yes this makes the game make perfect sense."

Could there have been a ladd busser? Ehhhhhhh.

Not sure how it's conceivable to rank nebbie over any ladd voter! Sleep and HK at the bottom also feels bad.

Ehh, I can't give much if any credit for calling for the shot. If you're a wolf with dolby there you know that slot's never endgaming. Like, once dolby did their catchup posts and then dipped, there was no giant case against them, just a mutual understanding that that slot was probably a wolf and was definitely gonna get PoE'd. You knew it, I knew it, everyone knew it.

So Mass Effect? In that game, the one before this one on the Org, the subbing consensus mafia subbed in on D3 and sacrificed for antispew, allowing his two surviving teammates to go deep and win (they had both been voting on the heavy D2 wagon ousting their partner D2). On the other hand, if Dolby posted up a storm he too could have gone deep subbing like Mario 2, also a year ago. He just chose not to.

lmao. Sup Dolby.

overnight thoughts: ladd's wagon is pure. @Winston Hughes is a hero. I remember thinking Dobby looked good on EOD reread but can't really put a finger on it rn, may be suggesting a ladd cfd or something.
sleep/katze linked to newcomb's smh.
Benneh lean wolf.

*reads*

if there was a bus, it was Monty driving but yeah, I actually think Monty is town for now.

Eh. Why did nebbie rise to the same TL tier as me between these and your emote leans post?

: ladd, Dolby

: Winston, Csargoat

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Raskol, cuth, zack, sleep, newcomb, Sunbae

: monty, dobby, Cape, Benneh

: katze, HK

: Ender

nothing but the best tbh.

Monty's unvote is kinda weird, but dunno. don't wanna read into it too much rn because it could go both way. He put ladd in position in the first place (from which vote? need to check) I guess.
[/MENTION]

About my vote, I should also relate that wrangling the image took me a minute, so I missed the votes shortly preceding mine. As far as I knew I was voting to tie ladd 3-3-3.

Mario Mafia 1 at CFC maybe?

Bruh, you were Bowser, not mafia. Csargo was mafia.

on the topic of Montmorency and the ladd wagon.

please look at #961 and #964

like Mont goes from outright shading Winston for the vote on ladd, to joining Winston by EOD. I am either paranoid at an obvtown move or I am Sherlock Holmes

Reaction testing and wagonomics.

if nothing else its good champs practice!

and fwiw the ben read kind of expresses what i was saying earlier in a much more eloquent way, except that i was looking more at his play over the course of the day rather than eod specifically. it feels like if hes a wolf he hasnt really been trying to get villagers killed.

Would his slot need to try?

lumps dolby in with two confirmed villas (me, csargo) and a probable one (benneh) then says to bomb newcomb and never really expands on nor pushes the dolby thing at all.

the section encouraging everyone to think the wagons were w/w/v seems more like agenda-pushing than a genuine thought? I mean he clears rask without even considering that rask was a wolf wagon, even though he spends a paragraph talking about multiple wolf wagons being probable and wants to bomb newcomb into the stone age.

the reason for voting benneh seems silly, me and newcomb hadn't even flipped, talk about jumping to conclusions.

worth noting monty shouldn't really be getting credit for ladd vote, he tried to unvote but it was past the deadline

he kinda just seems like a wolf to me?

I asked you to take care of Dolby and you did (more so Csargo though). What's the issue?

It's an anxiety given how some of last year's games went, in parallel to this one. The only one who might be able to tell you more is HK.

If Newcomb is scum there is no way Rask is too, so there's no mystery in my concrete process. It's also possible, as I said, that the wagons were town. If there were two mafia wagons and NC was not one of them (town), well, we can come to that later - but our baseline knowledge now is that no more than two of four scum were active at EOD. If one of them was Rask, then Cuth is plausibly the last mafia, and I'm not interested in exploring that world today. If you want more info from Rask while we're all alive, try to piss him off.

You can mock my Nebbie push if I'm wrong. Not like this is the first hole I've ever dug (not in the sense of a tunnel).

I could also be deserving of more credit for unvoting ladd, so it evens out.

like from monty's POV, rask was a wagon against ladd (wolf) and newcomb (who monty seems to think is a wolf) and even expressed he didn't want to vote ladd and was basically doing it out of survival. monty spent time encouraging everyone to consider the possibility of multiple wolves being wagoned

but monty just ... blithely clears rask?

seems like he knows rask is a villager and since rask voted ladd, monty wasn't considering that he wasn't really clear from an uninformed POV

the perspective doesn't add up iyam

I never cleared a single player this game. I said Rask was getting a day-pass in the post you quoted, and I didn't judge NC as scum, only null and worth resolving for wagonomics. It's right there in your quotes. Make sense now?

Protip: The only world for your general bussing tinfoil on me is if either Rask or NC is exactly my partner. Keep calm and bomb ladd.

To be read with Newcomb energy.

Dobby, can you explain to me these two posts like 5 hours apart?

Heh

[nebjiamn]

B
so like, out of dolby, hollowkat, katze, csargo is there 3 2 wolves?


seems unlikely

coming back to this post post-flip because i think it sums up pretty much where i'm at atm post-flip and i wanna work off of it a bit. my world view didn't change all that much with dolby flipping red even though i wasn't really on him a ton, i don't imagine many people's worldviews did either.


i think the statement stands that the rest of the team probably isn't HK/Katze. i've soured a little on kat in terms of her being near the top of my v list but i still think she is >rand v. i'm slightly warming up to the idea that newcomb may be v this game and i still give her credit for noticing things that I did and pushing on those things on d1 in regard to him even if we both may end up having been wrong about them. more concerned about the process than the results and i like what she's shown more than i haven't. if there's one thing that's skeeved me a little it was her post earlier d2 where she wrote a wallpost with her continued issues about newcomb and dropped the mic on that post in a way that felt more like it was framed to make newcomb look bad without much deference to his thoughts, but i assume this is just a continuation of the weird dynamic they have with kat's expectations/newcomb's ignorance of kat's meta (lmao) and the repercussions therein


HK i think has lots of good posts (especially relative to his actual postcount!) and I feel like its been very easy for me to follow along with his progressions while i read the thread. his response to newcomb today in trying to figure out if we had w/w/w, w/w/v, or v/v/w wagons yesterday and then extrapolating that to a shortened suspect list of [dolby, dobby, ender] looks really good.

Which would put, in my opinion, >2 wolves between the following {ender, katze, sleep, monstr (now dolby), neb, dobby)


Of those the ones I'm most suspect of are dolby, dobby, and ender. I liked katzes posting throughout the day. I also freely admit I'm shite at reading them. Neb and sleep I should have reads on but don't.
I do at least remember that they're playing. Dobby otoh I do not. Seems like an iawy vibe check place tbh.

Like, its not just that he places dolby as his 1st from that list, but the way he clears kat, sleep, and myself from that list, particularly myself and sleep and going on to say he doesn't have reads on us when he should. since i think kat and sleep are both >rand v, that would be a hell of a position to take when he'd be well within his right to suspect all 3 of us there without getting much flak for it. again, i like the process here and in other parts of his iso. i suppose if dobby and ender is 0 wolves, it might have been fine for him to just rule of 3 two separate categories of folks and score some bus credit on dolby/monstr but i still think it comes out looking clean.

So am i wrong on newcomb?


possibly, but i dont *want* to be wrong on newcomb and i dont *want* to just shrug and write him off just to see his alignment

i'm definitely still in the possible camp but moving away from probable where i've been sitting for a good chunk of the game. i think the frustration he's shown toward zack last night plus the point he's made about being night/day from his wildcard game are pretty valid. its just hard to imagine newc on this team and him basically mailing in EOD yesterday when he'd know he'd be a candidate AND another, strong wolf gets wagoned/lunched (i mnight be mis-attributing some agency here because the ladd vote was really quick but i still feel like newcomb shows a bit more urgency to command that EOD rather than just kind of accept it?) (i don't think newcomb was at EOD but i believe he was there leading up to it, i guess i should double check this but i'm lazy)

is zack wrong about cape?


is cuth wrong about ender?

this feels like the crux of the game for me, at this point? with a village read on newcomb starting to take shape, my world view doesn't really make sense unless one of zack/cuth is wrong on their v read here. and i mean, its werewolf, so its obviously very possible both are just correct and we have a deep wolf or two in either the bussers or a misclear of the sleep/kat/HK/newc quartet (list potentially not all-inclusive, its late).


i think ender's looked really good with the two flips. i think any w/w potential there was between ladd/ender has been squashed a bit with how he treated monstr d1. the question i suppose becomes, was ender feeling the heat early d1 and looking to distance based off how his partner had been bussing him? i have read and agree that the posting between those two didn't really seem to be involved with solving eachother's alignments, but at the same time, we know why ladd wasn't, and ender's POV was an OMGUS read (not a diss/insult calling it OMGUS since it was correct!), which i think could explain why that appears that way. i also kinda think there'd be more there there if they were indeed distancing, wouldn't there? ladd is an excellent wolf and i know blade is too just off his rep. they could have turned that up a bit if that was for show.


cape i am straight up struggling to solve. a lot of his posting has felt to me like "Here's a post, here's a fact, elaboration, done" but then I don't really see the process behind it a ton. i also feel like there's been lots of good thoughts or questions that have just been left dangling behind. also the weird shade that calls me out for not finding ladd in a room full of players with equal or more experience with ladd than me. i am setting that aside a bit because i don't want to make reads too much based around how people poke and prod at me, but that just felt designed like a hit piece on me rather than coming from an inquisitive position. this could very much be a me problem but i'm just having trouble connecting the dots on cape's posting ITG and how he's getting from a->b a lot of times or a better way to put it maybe, where his posting begins and where his thought process ends? I feel like pound for pound, there's more empty questions in cape's iso that either 1) i can't see how they help him solve the game or 2) if/how he follows up on it later in the game?

did i clear sleep too lightly? i dont think so, ladd pressed there kinda hard and ended there.

subscribe to my newsletter. i've got the hottest tinfoils out there about how monstr spewed sleep wolf and ladd tried to play it up.

did zack get me? i dont think so, i really liked his snap back at ladd and overall posting?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

hehe

did someone bus ladd? maybe?

doesn't seem like it right? i've already talkeda bout this so ill leave it for now but not really interested in solving this part of the game right now


i think we nabbed huge equity by punting ladd yesterday. i think we'd have gotten to monstr/dolby sooner rather than later but with that kind of swing getting ladd i see no reason to dig too hard into the foils for now.

[nebjiamn]

Can you rephrase what this question is about? Also, in your post chain I feel like your progression on HK is too rapid and pretextual, from Monstr-spewed to Dolby anti-spewed (if I'm not misunderstanding).

There's no real question in that -- i was mostly just stating that the way monstr talked about sleep (e.g. "I dont think i know you that well") felt like a slip that he KNEW sleep's identity because they're in wolf chat together and when he posted that in-thread it was coming off in a way that he forgot that no one else (besides I think rask?) knows for sure who sleep is, so how could he have a gauge on how well he knows them unless he knows who they are?

I asked for a sanity check because that kind of stuff can be so ~rand or stupid that its not worth digging in on but it felt worth calling out anyway.

[Sunbae]

Cape: I feel ok about some of their interactions with dead wolves. “Least confident wolf read by a long shot is Ladd” came out of nowhere, as did their “monstr is a member of the town” post. The response to Cuth saying him/monstr have a lot of w/w equity is to quote the post and go into villa reading Cuth pretty hard, which seems to lack much of an agenda to me. Their wolf reads seem to be their own thing (pushed Winston for a bit, Mont, Cuth and then switched as Cuth posted more, etc). They defended monstr a bit around the blowup but I think that's a reasonable take (in fact I kind of think seeing that as w/w who has already pressed suspicion on Monstr would almost certainly result in you writing him off instead of defending him?). Called out Dolbys wall for being rough. Basically, looking through the iso again with all the new information makes me think Cape has good interactions with flipped wolves and has some pretty good stretches of trying to solve things. Zack also has a strong townread there and I'm comfortable sponging it at this juncture.

[nebjiamn]

oh, i realize i didn't talk about dobby in that post. i've liked dobby since his catch up d1 and his read list late and his posting today. i also realize this puts me in the precarious position of only really having 1 wolf read atm which means i'm clearing at least 1, potentially 2

and i don't really have anything else to say about that besides shucks

[Sunbae]

Cuth: Voted out Ladd d1. Generally towny posts. I didn't think Cuth/Monstr was likely a pair given the way Cuth talked about Monstr (talked about how it's hard to read him because they view things similarly, made a joke about still being possible to be w/w with him, kept him in a tier of his own, never attempted to defend him nor really push him).

[Sunbae]

Dobby: Liked his initial call out of Ladd for having too many reads too early. Thought their hesitancy on trying to figure out my alignment was natural and nuanced using a lot of our history in a way that made me think they were actually trying to figure it out. I thought Dobby just disagreeing with Newcomb and saying Sleep/Cape could be w/w was entirely against threadflow/consensus in a villagery way and then immediately arguing with Katze in 682 also came off towny to me in a way where I thought Dobby was reading posts, thinking about why they are being posted, and trying to reach conclusions from it rather than having a nefarious intent to spin posts for personal gain. The Hollowkat push was also against general thread consensus at the time. I have small concerns ? two dead wolves called villagers in the big reads list, the double posts about ?oh dolby was a wolf? like 5 hours apart making me think they might be fake, the fact that pretty much nobody else is villa reading Dobby ? but the concerns are very small and I think the overall body of work is still just villager Dobby trying to solve the game.

[Sunbae]

Ender: I've talked a bit about Ender's stuff with me and how it felt weird, but I also recognize I am in a blind spot in that particular situation given it was about me. I read Ender's response to me and I understand. To answer the question, I called it as feeling slimy and opportunistic because it seemed to pop up when people had an issue with me and went away when people stopped caring about it while you presented it as some elaborate trap. I acknowledge it totally could be – and if you note I made sure to say even if Newcomb is villa I wanted to talk to you about things instead of just trying to kill you or anything. As for the rest of the game: I'm interested in how Ender suspected Ladd for much of the day and then ended up going hard at Newcomb while avoiding Ladd while he was being wagoned at end of day, but I don't think it's a smoking gun because Ender started suspecting Newcomb pretty early as well. Plus, there's still the whole thing about how Newcomb can still be a wolf and we just had w/w wagons and the one that makes Ender look bad flipped first.

Overall though, their iso seems fine in their interactions with known roles. They snipped at Ladd out of the gate with the interactions post, say they vibe with a ladd read about Katze v, and then start turning on Ladd as a direct response to Ladd's pressure there. It's rather inconsistent as a w/w theater thing imo and the timing is really weird as w/w given it's right around the time that the thing with me happens where it's easy to pile on me and dish out a Ladd town read or something but instead they suspect me and then start posting about wLadd. They also called out Monstr for being weaksauce at the same time and follows it up by shading monstr for pushing a meme wagon seriously. Then goes into Ladd even more – saying he has his reasons to push me, sees no defense of me, and is happy to sit there. Comes back from a break and goes right back into him and votes him. This was the post Zack called out as weak and potentially w/w given the ramp up to voting him and then a flat feeling one actually happening.

Then comes back with a Newcomb case that's rather detailed and continues pushing Newcomb the rest of the day. Which, reading through, makes the end of day make plenty of sense to me.

I think Ender is just a villager? Cuth feels very strongly about it too. I think me trying to find a wolf read there is just trying to think the game is super hard and so far nothing has shown me that it should be.