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Cuth you've had a couple strong reads that I don't really grasp the core of. Cape and Ender both being strong v for you.

Where does that strength come from? I can ask in a different way if you want, I know that's kind of a broad way of asking.

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#1149

I actually like this post. Bar the mild "Oh Cuth didn't die?" derptell which feels fake. But also wagon position on Ladd was probably good?

I kinda like Sleep's daystart in general.

#1171

I'm in confbias territory now but like, this post is a post I can see wolf!Newcomb making after not thinking Ladd was in danger at EOD and then the flashwagon on his partner appears.

-- I'm going to point out that it looks like Dolby entered today to try and pocket me.

#1205

As of this post I'm pretty sure Neb/NC are unpaired.

#1210

I'll actually have to check this after I'm done catching up. If Zack is right and Ladd really didn't defend Newc at all and WAS around after I dropped case and pushed, it might actually be signs pointing in the "I'm wrong" direction.

#1230

If I am wrong on Newc is this the angle that I was pocketed at? (Talking about Sleep not Zack)

#1233

Ladd/Sleep/HK/? =P

#1236

Neb comes to mind immediately, I'd have to think about this more for other names.

#1247

If it's Cape and Newc as the other two wolves this post becomes more hilarious. (Both unflipped wolves basically templated the same opener today.)

Kinda want to unpair Cape/Neb for 1257/1258

#1260

Is it a bad read if I call this a town post? Legit seems to be dismissive/annoyed at Dolby before he flipped. Might be a bad read but I'm actually pretty confident in it.

1263/1264 are mildly wolf leaning IMO for Neb

#1272

In my defense I hadn't seen your post saying the same thing yet =P

#1281

I think this post never comes from w/v worlds for Newc/Neb. Or not w!Newcomb/V!Neb worlds. If Newcomb flips red I am willing to bet anything that Neb flips red too.

#1284

That post is NAI. I stand by the reads I do use.

Is it bad that I read Newc lashing out at Zack as possibly towny? Probably yes.

#1330

This is actually a mildly convincing take lmao.

#1411

This is a pretty ballsy post for a wolf to make tbh. I kinda like it.

#1426

Dare I say this looks good for Newcomb? Dare I?

Rask's catchup is meh but also probably not AI.

Dobby's catchup is kinda meh. Also I believe Rask's "Oh Dolby is mafia" more than Dobby's.

I like Benneh's reads in the next sequence (Not at all because he calls me town what are you talking about)

#1500

Derp tell denied.

The rest I'm kinda vagueish on as my brain is struggling to keep going.

I didn't see anything particularly AI but need to dig into the posting a bit more.

--

Thus concludes my lacklustre wall of returns.

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@Sleep

I had a migraine yesterday. Expect me to be around and posting today.

I'll tell you straight up that if you look at any game I've played on this site or others then you'll find I have no issues posting no matter my alignment. If I'm out of thread it is always due to irl. Yesterday thinking was painful, so I spent 90% of the day in bed.

Today you'll have me around intermittently.

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yeah i was just confused, glad to hear you're feeling better

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I'm glad I'm feeling better too =P

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curious how you go from “newc and neb are unpaired” into me making the most sense on a newc/Dolby team into me and newc being w/w in all worlds where newc flips red?

I don’t see progression for it in the post so forgive me for the boring self-centered questions

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You say you like the post without explanation and then criticize part of it as feeling fake. Why do you like the post?

What do you think of Monty trying to unvote ladd?

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The end result is "Actually is Neb and Newc town?"

But that was mostly just my unfiltered reactions when I had a specific take. I haven't properly like, homogenised my world.

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The whole "Overlooking scum multiwagons" bit and the fact that it's obviously work prepared overnight. Also other than your placement on it I kinda vibed with the order of the list.

The unvote... I don't know how I feel about it.

Would w!Monty try to unvote at the last second to put w!Ladd in rand?

Like I guess if he gets lucky and Ladd survives then it could work out, but otherwise it just feels like a move I don't see wolves make.

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Also town do dumb faked derptells too which is why that note didn't undermine the post

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ok so now i feel like its appropriate to talk about this:

i have a significant issue with the bolded in that it doesnt really fit my perception of how ender and ladd acted toward one another and having a singular pair of quotes as the example is kind of weak

so i went and compiled the interactions so as to save folks the legwork:


theres some commentary from me in there but not a ton, but the tl;dr is that ladd went after ender from literally the start of the game and they pretty consistently took potshots at each other throughout the day. theres worlds where some wolves go heavy on the distancing but i kind of doubt either of them chooses to play it that way? you can maybe squint your eyes at ladd walking back his ender read late in the day but i could just as easily see that as distancing himself from a v flip.

but regardless acting like "they werent trying to solve each other" is...kind of a weird descriptor to me. theres a a decent amount of tension there, i felt, and stuff like ladd remarking about how he gets omgused on his pushes didnt seem like a reaction to a partner


but the "werent trying to solve each others alignments" accusation is notable because...thats exactly how i felt about ladd and newcomb on day 1. see below:


so yeah, im not the best at spotting bussing unless its like, really bad, but imho newcomb looks...way, way worse from ladd interactions than ender does? like newcomb showed exactly 0 critical thought into ladds alignment and was super hands off in talking to him, ladd didnt look pressured at all. this would maybe be understandable if they were familiar with each other but theyve even said they havnt played together much, so this approach just doesnt make sense to me as v/w.

and this isnt a purely associative read, i thought ender was more villagery on individual merits and that hasnt really changed for me

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i shuld also say: theres these posts from ender about monstr, decide for yourself how they look:

i honestly feel like this is a fairly good look for ender - while its possible

i have already said i feel its entirely possible monstr asked to be bussed, but i feel like in concert with the ladd stuff this is just more likely a villager than anything? generally if wolves are going for the strat of hellbussing each other like crazy day 1 they dont tae their foot off the gas at the last minute.

its possible i have the wrong angle on this and for wolves it was convenient to try to get me/newcomb as TvT wagons with them taking opposite sides. but looking at the posts im not sure i see it, if i am missing something here please tell me

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lol i had a sentence left in there from an earlier writing but i tempered my read on thinking about it, please ignore the first line after the quotes

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This is ladd spewing nebbie partner, it's just my hunch.

Could be noteworthy wrt Cuth one way or another.

FTR this and the previous are in retrospect pretty blatant sunbae townspew. Kinda don't think ladd would display this kind of defensive attitude about two partners in a row with the same player (Cuth+Monstr), but YMMV.

Have to record these two shades against Monstr by Ender. He also calls Monstr weak in his reads list later on.

kek

Spew or antispew?

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hello

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I have a series of questions for various people, then I'll try and get some big picture thoughts in

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Seems lightly not w/w. I think the partner version probably comes with another sentence or two?

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It do be that way sometimes.

It do be that way sometimes.

Mo' money, more 'rency.

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Dobby, can you explain to me these two posts like 5 hours apart?

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Players Votes

EnderWiggin 2 (zack, Raskolnikov)
nebjiamn 1 (Montmorency)
Montmorency 1 (Cuthillius)
hollowkatt 1 (Dobby)
Dobby 1 (hollowkatt)


1610

i believe this is correct

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The pull of Rule of 3 is very strong here. Note for reference this is just mundane spew of sunbae, so I have to wonder how fancy Dolby was really getting here. However, Dolby does attempt to convey (at least subliminally) anti-pairs amoing ender/sunbae, zack/hk, and NC/nebbie. Zack and Sunbae are of course cleared, and I would struggle to believe that Dolby would just out his whole team within these sets. But he also wouldn't exclude them all, since that leaves Cuth/Rask/Dobby/Cape/katze/sleep.

Structural reads reinforce my gut.

(Secretly I'm not sure I know what I'm talking about, but I'll leave these musings as is.)

Thank you for completing the request. Unfortunately, all I can offer you are experience points.

Hmm

It's the best case scenario for us. Although if Newcomb is town... yeah, Monstr and ladd were AFK but could all of the Mafia have been caught with their pants down? Also, going off that tally nebbie and katze should never be paired with Cuth and probably not with each other.

I never thought of that. Very helpful, in principle.

Winston was just performing the standard CFD reaction test of the thread (and well). I was testing him personally throughout that EOD, culminating in joining his ladd wagon. Day 1 was basically about textbook wagon manipulation. It's a pretty transparent sort of thing once the observer is taken out of the heat of the moment.

Interesting.

Cape-nebbie not paired?

Interesting.

Keeping for reference, my intended comment has become unclear or obsolete.

Strong post.

She went after Dolby though?

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This was before Csargo's claim - how did you know I wasn't vested? This isn't even AI, since no one other than Sunbae and Csargo could have known I wasn't vested. Unless you were discreetly referencing his soft at the beginning of the day??

Csargo's second and third softs.

@Sunbae For the record you have had the purest tone out of the whole list. You were not long for this world anyway. RIP sweet prince, cut comment about Sunbae's reads.

Please pull up the referent? Softed?

Also, please vest me tonight. I'm the only one here who can be relied upon not to bomb you or Zack, other than Zack (and if you are perceived to be vesting Zack for his talents, there is no universe in which Zack survives the night, wasting the opportunity). I'm a wildcard for the mafia, unless they're laughing at me from deep in my POE, so they'll cross their fingers and let me slide into their D(ay)Ms.

Optimal reasoning.

Yes. You can have this one for today.

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I'm going to go with, for D2/3, shield Cuth, Rask, (Zack, Sunbae), Sleep, HK, katze. I just don't see more than one deep in here, maybe none. Maybe even toss ender in their when Zack isn't looking.

There are still no better candidates for ouster than Nebbie, unless someone wants to make a fresh case on Cape or Dobby. NC has seen a lot of strong defenses, so we have to allow that to play out for a bit, but I hope we would agree that NC should be resolved before anyone on his D1 wagon?

How I feel reading Zack, katze, Sunbae, and others' unique takes on NC's alignment.

Youtube Video

Dobby and Cape remain blind spots for me in generating usable opinions of them, though earlier commentary by Cuth and Nebbie introduced some suspicion that at least can hopefully be expanded into anti-pairing.



Can you rephrase what this question is about? Also, in your post chain I feel like your progression on HK is too rapid and pretextual, from Monstr-spewed to Dolby anti-spewed (if I'm not misunderstanding).

Not sure how it's conceivable to rank nebbie over any ladd voter! Sleep and HK at the bottom also feels bad.

So Mass Effect? In that game, the one before this one on the Org, the subbing consensus mafia subbed in on D3 and sacrificed for antispew, allowing his two surviving teammates to go deep and win (they had both been voting on the heavy D2 wagon ousting their partner D2). On the other hand, if Dolby posted up a storm he too could have gone deep subbing like Mario 2, also a year ago. He just chose not to.

Eh. Why did nebbie rise to the same TL tier as me between these and your emote leans post?

About my vote, I should also relate that wrangling the image took me a minute, so I missed the votes shortly preceding mine. As far as I knew I was voting to tie ladd 3-3-3.

Bruh, you were Bowser, not mafia. Csargo was mafia.

Reaction testing and wagonomics.

Would his slot need to try?

I asked you to take care of Dolby and you did (more so Csargo though). What's the issue?

It's an anxiety given how some of last year's games went, in parallel to this one. The only one who might be able to tell you more is HK.

If Newcomb is scum there is no way Rask is too, so there's no mystery in my concrete process. It's also possible, as I said, that the wagons were town. If there were two mafia wagons and NC was not one of them (town), well, we can come to that later - but our baseline knowledge now is that no more than two of four scum were active at EOD. If one of them was Rask, then Cuth is plausibly the last mafia, and I'm not interested in exploring that world today. If you want more info from Rask while we're all alive, try to piss him off.

You can mock my Nebbie push if I'm wrong. Not like this is the first hole I've ever dug (not in the sense of a tunnel).

I could also be deserving of more credit for unvoting ladd, so it evens out.

I never cleared a single player this game. I said Rask was getting a day-pass in the post you quoted, and I didn't judge NC as scum, only null and worth resolving for wagonomics. It's right there in your quotes. Make sense now?

Protip: The only world for your general bussing tinfoil on me is if either Rask or NC is exactly my partner. Keep calm and bomb ladd.

To be read with Newcomb energy.

Heh

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coming back to this post post-flip because i think it sums up pretty much where i'm at atm post-flip and i wanna work off of it a bit. my world view didn't change all that much with dolby flipping red even though i wasn't really on him a ton, i don't imagine many people's worldviews did either.


i think the statement stands that the rest of the team probably isn't HK/Katze. i've soured a little on kat in terms of her being near the top of my v list but i still think she is >rand v. i'm slightly warming up to the idea that newcomb may be v this game and i still give her credit for noticing things that I did and pushing on those things on d1 in regard to him even if we both may end up having been wrong about them. more concerned about the process than the results and i like what she's shown more than i haven't. if there's one thing that's skeeved me a little it was her post earlier d2 where she wrote a wallpost with her continued issues about newcomb and dropped the mic on that post in a way that felt more like it was framed to make newcomb look bad without much deference to his thoughts, but i assume this is just a continuation of the weird dynamic they have with kat's expectations/newcomb's ignorance of kat's meta (lmao) and the repercussions therein


HK i think has lots of good posts (especially relative to his actual postcount!) and I feel like its been very easy for me to follow along with his progressions while i read the thread. his response to newcomb today in trying to figure out if we had w/w/w, w/w/v, or v/v/w wagons yesterday and then extrapolating that to a shortened suspect list of [dolby, dobby, ender] looks really good.



Like, its not just that he places dolby as his 1st from that list, but the way he clears kat, sleep, and myself from that list, particularly myself and sleep and going on to say he doesn't have reads on us when he should. since i think kat and sleep are both >rand v, that would be a hell of a position to take when he'd be well within his right to suspect all 3 of us there without getting much flak for it. again, i like the process here and in other parts of his iso. i suppose if dobby and ender is 0 wolves, it might have been fine for him to just rule of 3 two separate categories of folks and score some bus credit on dolby/monstr but i still think it comes out looking clean.



i'm definitely still in the possible camp but moving away from probable where i've been sitting for a good chunk of the game. i think the frustration he's shown toward zack last night plus the point he's made about being night/day from his wildcard game are pretty valid. its just hard to imagine newc on this team and him basically mailing in EOD yesterday when he'd know he'd be a candidate AND another, strong wolf gets wagoned/lunched (i mnight be mis-attributing some agency here because the ladd vote was really quick but i still feel like newcomb shows a bit more urgency to command that EOD rather than just kind of accept it?) (i don't think newcomb was at EOD but i believe he was there leading up to it, i guess i should double check this but i'm lazy)





this feels like the crux of the game for me, at this point? with a village read on newcomb starting to take shape, my world view doesn't really make sense unless one of zack/cuth is wrong on their v read here. and i mean, its werewolf, so its obviously very possible both are just correct and we have a deep wolf or two in either the bussers or a misclear of the sleep/kat/HK/newc quartet (list potentially not all-inclusive, its late).


i think ender's looked really good with the two flips. i think any w/w potential there was between ladd/ender has been squashed a bit with how he treated monstr d1. the question i suppose becomes, was ender feeling the heat early d1 and looking to distance based off how his partner had been bussing him? i have read and agree that the posting between those two didn't really seem to be involved with solving eachother's alignments, but at the same time, we know why ladd wasn't, and ender's POV was an OMGUS read (not a diss/insult calling it OMGUS since it was correct!), which i think could explain why that appears that way. i also kinda think there'd be more there there if they were indeed distancing, wouldn't there? ladd is an excellent wolf and i know blade is too just off his rep. they could have turned that up a bit if that was for show.


cape i am straight up struggling to solve. a lot of his posting has felt to me like "Here's a post, here's a fact, elaboration, done" but then I don't really see the process behind it a ton. i also feel like there's been lots of good thoughts or questions that have just been left dangling behind. also the weird shade that calls me out for not finding ladd in a room full of players with equal or more experience with ladd than me. i am setting that aside a bit because i don't want to make reads too much based around how people poke and prod at me, but that just felt designed like a hit piece on me rather than coming from an inquisitive position. this could very much be a me problem but i'm just having trouble connecting the dots on cape's posting ITG and how he's getting from a->b a lot of times or a better way to put it maybe, where his posting begins and where his thought process ends? I feel like pound for pound, there's more empty questions in cape's iso that either 1) i can't see how they help him solve the game or 2) if/how he follows up on it later in the game?





subscribe to my newsletter. i've got the hottest tinfoils out there about how monstr spewed sleep wolf and ladd tried to play it up.






doesn't seem like it right? i've already talkeda bout this so ill leave it for now but not really interested in solving this part of the game right now


i think we nabbed huge equity by punting ladd yesterday. i think we'd have gotten to monstr/dolby sooner rather than later but with that kind of swing getting ladd i see no reason to dig too hard into the foils for now.

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There's no real question in that -- i was mostly just stating that the way monstr talked about sleep (e.g. "I dont think i know you that well") felt like a slip that he KNEW sleep's identity because they're in wolf chat together and when he posted that in-thread it was coming off in a way that he forgot that no one else (besides I think rask?) knows for sure who sleep is, so how could he have a gauge on how well he knows them unless he knows who they are?

I asked for a sanity check because that kind of stuff can be so ~rand or stupid that its not worth digging in on but it felt worth calling out anyway.

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Cape: I feel ok about some of their interactions with dead wolves. “Least confident wolf read by a long shot is Ladd” came out of nowhere, as did their “monstr is a member of the town” post. The response to Cuth saying him/monstr have a lot of w/w equity is to quote the post and go into villa reading Cuth pretty hard, which seems to lack much of an agenda to me. Their wolf reads seem to be their own thing (pushed Winston for a bit, Mont, Cuth and then switched as Cuth posted more, etc). They defended monstr a bit around the blowup but I think that's a reasonable take (in fact I kind of think seeing that as w/w who has already pressed suspicion on Monstr would almost certainly result in you writing him off instead of defending him?). Called out Dolbys wall for being rough. Basically, looking through the iso again with all the new information makes me think Cape has good interactions with flipped wolves and has some pretty good stretches of trying to solve things. Zack also has a strong townread there and I'm comfortable sponging it at this juncture.

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oh, i realize i didn't talk about dobby in that post. i've liked dobby since his catch up d1 and his read list late and his posting today. i also realize this puts me in the precarious position of only really having 1 wolf read atm which means i'm clearing at least 1, potentially 2

and i don't really have anything else to say about that besides shucks

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Cuth: Voted out Ladd d1. Generally towny posts. I didn't think Cuth/Monstr was likely a pair given the way Cuth talked about Monstr (talked about how it's hard to read him because they view things similarly, made a joke about still being possible to be w/w with him, kept him in a tier of his own, never attempted to defend him nor really push him).

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Dobby: Liked his initial call out of Ladd for having too many reads too early. Thought their hesitancy on trying to figure out my alignment was natural and nuanced using a lot of our history in a way that made me think they were actually trying to figure it out. I thought Dobby just disagreeing with Newcomb and saying Sleep/Cape could be w/w was entirely against threadflow/consensus in a villagery way and then immediately arguing with Katze in 682 also came off towny to me in a way where I thought Dobby was reading posts, thinking about why they are being posted, and trying to reach conclusions from it rather than having a nefarious intent to spin posts for personal gain. The Hollowkat push was also against general thread consensus at the time. I have small concerns ? two dead wolves called villagers in the big reads list, the double posts about ?oh dolby was a wolf? like 5 hours apart making me think they might be fake, the fact that pretty much nobody else is villa reading Dobby ? but the concerns are very small and I think the overall body of work is still just villager Dobby trying to solve the game.

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Ender: I've talked a bit about Ender's stuff with me and how it felt weird, but I also recognize I am in a blind spot in that particular situation given it was about me. I read Ender's response to me and I understand. To answer the question, I called it as feeling slimy and opportunistic because it seemed to pop up when people had an issue with me and went away when people stopped caring about it while you presented it as some elaborate trap. I acknowledge it totally could be – and if you note I made sure to say even if Newcomb is villa I wanted to talk to you about things instead of just trying to kill you or anything. As for the rest of the game: I'm interested in how Ender suspected Ladd for much of the day and then ended up going hard at Newcomb while avoiding Ladd while he was being wagoned at end of day, but I don't think it's a smoking gun because Ender started suspecting Newcomb pretty early as well. Plus, there's still the whole thing about how Newcomb can still be a wolf and we just had w/w wagons and the one that makes Ender look bad flipped first.

Overall though, their iso seems fine in their interactions with known roles. They snipped at Ladd out of the gate with the interactions post, say they vibe with a ladd read about Katze v, and then start turning on Ladd as a direct response to Ladd's pressure there. It's rather inconsistent as a w/w theater thing imo and the timing is really weird as w/w given it's right around the time that the thing with me happens where it's easy to pile on me and dish out a Ladd town read or something but instead they suspect me and then start posting about wLadd. They also called out Monstr for being weaksauce at the same time and follows it up by shading monstr for pushing a meme wagon seriously. Then goes into Ladd even more – saying he has his reasons to push me, sees no defense of me, and is happy to sit there. Comes back from a break and goes right back into him and votes him. This was the post Zack called out as weak and potentially w/w given the ramp up to voting him and then a flat feeling one actually happening.

Then comes back with a Newcomb case that's rather detailed and continues pushing Newcomb the rest of the day. Which, reading through, makes the end of day make plenty of sense to me.

I think Ender is just a villager? Cuth feels very strongly about it too. I think me trying to find a wolf read there is just trying to think the game is super hard and so far nothing has shown me that it should be.

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