Sorceror 17er Game Thread

[Cuthillius]

I might feel better about that if there was any kind of real wagon on monte throughout the day, or if his wagon was greater than just sunbae at the end there. Like ok, if monte is wolf and rightly suspected by obvs town sunbae and obvs town zack it would make sense to me to see that wagon grow at the end of the day instead of Ladd going over. That's the tricky bit for me. Monte was suspected for being inactive, taking a gamble on Ladd being wolf vs pushing "inactive monte" seems like a large oversight on the part of the wolf team and not one that I'd expect competent wolves like Ladd and Ender to make.

I think monte absolutely could have gone over D1 if people had wanted him to, but they didn't.

i think more to the point the push on monty was more from orgers from what i remember (zack a major name) vs ladd who was like. winston and maybe me (and ender a little lol) and some other people were eh and some people were like seems pretty villagery

[Cuthillius]

i'm actually kinda upset i didn't connect the dots on you gira

i was like idk who this could be but they're not really treating me like how anyone i can think of would so maybe i just don't know them well?

[Dobby]

what if:



I guess the big question of the day is this: was there a wolf on Ladd and given their role and given the way the wagon flashed out of nowhere I'm inclined to think wolves were trying to save Ladd more so than gain credit from being on his wagon. Obvs they could not be flashy about saving him b/c it would out them.

But here's a thing:
This is the vote count from 18 minutes before EOD:


Notice a complete and utter lack of Ladd wagon other than the lone Winston vote.
Here we have one wolf on newcomb, one wolf on sleep, and one wolf on raskol. I think none of those are buses.

Then we have the next count:


It's 12 minutes later and the Cuth wagon has vanished. Ladd still at 1 vote, Cuth has moved to Winston, the Raskol wagon has also dropped a voter.

One minute to go:


6 wagons with 2 votes each. At this point there is no telling who is going to go over. Nobody can claim any kind of credit from Ladd at this point as there's no real push other than from winston to get people voting for Ladd. He's the only one stumping for the chop here.

Contrast with the final vote count:


I think this shows Raskol and Sleep are town. If they are goons they are both bused to save Ladd here. I say this because again there was not a huge impetus to save Ladd. His wagon grew organically and votes were flying pretty quickly in the last minute or so of the game day.

I think it also shows that there was not a coordinated bus effort on Ladd. Kinda want to clear his whole wagon which is why I posted the first "what if" at the top.
I want to add Cuth to the "can't be a wolf here" bucket b/c why does he vote his PR on the back of Winston asking for Ladd votes when Cuth was voting Winston moments before he votes Ladd? It doesn't add up to me. I know Cuth is an insanely good player as both alignments but still, there's literally zero reasons to move to Ladd here as wolf goon when you can just stay on Raskol, not to mention moving off of Raskol puts the Cuth wagon clearly in the lead by 2 votes which is quite a bit to overcome in the last couple minutes of a game day. It did happen so it's not impossible but still, unlikely to me that Cuth is a wolf.

Then there is the monte question. I said earlier he had votes on each of the dead wolves on D1 and ended his day on the Ladd wagon.
Before that though he is pretty much parked on Raskol in the run up to the end of the day. Like Cuth what is the impetus to move to Ladd, what does wolf?Monte gain from doing that. I argue it's the same thing with Cuth. Monte wasn't highly suspected during D1, there was no gamestate reason for Monte to reach for credit like this. He also doesn't make much noise in terms of trying to capitalize on said credit.

I would argue Monte is town for the same reasons here.

So Rask, Sleep, Cuth, Monte town

Leaving
HK
Dobby
Neb
Katze
Cape

Remove myself, remove Dobby, remove Neb. Leaves Katze and Cape.

This is where I get stuck tbh. I can find reasonable reasons to town read both of them.

vote: katze

gonna try this on for a while and see how it feels.

Hey i was going to do this but now someone else did pog


Looking at those vc's I think yes Rask is never wolf, cuth with the first vote on ladd during that eod (other that winston's that i dont count here) to make him a legit wagon when people sussed him already looks good for him.

If a wolf places a vote on ladd here it's - let's look at it.

Rask's vote was within seconds from Monty's vote and both were at :00. Rask's vote can pretty certainly be seen as self-pres. He could've placed a vote that looked good for the mafia sorcerer, but didn't, he voted him.

Those two votes took ladd from 2 votes to 4 votes, and suddenly he went from being one of many wagons, to top one.

BUUUUUUUUUUUUT

There's this fuckin post

Let me quote it as well.

It's at :01. Probably just a few seconds too late from having been a valid unvote.

Unvote

I don't know how it can look worse than this for someone tbh



(im splitting my post into 2 because its about 2 semi different things)

Vote: Monty

[Cuthillius]

does cape's vest fps matter at all?

[hollowkatt]

does cape's vest fps matter at all?

I don't think he leaned hard enough into it to make it viable fps and his backing off reads fine

[Cuthillius]

I don't think he leaned hard enough into it to make it viable fps and his backing off reads fine

do you think any of it is positively ai?

[hollowkatt]

I WANTED THAT AROUND EOD

@Cuthillius I think this is worse than the FPS if you're looking for reasons to sus on cape

[hollowkatt]

do you think any of it is positively ai?

I think the initial FPS is objectively NAI but the reaction to Ender blowing up Sunbae seems overblown.

[Cuthillius]

I think the initial FPS is objectively NAI but the reaction to Ender blowing up Sunbae seems overblown.

it's weird

i just looked

him randomly saying haha i was joking about vest right before detonation is funny

[Dobby]

So i just ctrl f:ed "mont" in the first dayphase to see if he had written anything, or if anyone else had mentioned him

i'll help benneh and then go afk for the next 24ish hours

v
mont
benneh
ladd

sleep

i don't like ender's way of posting (almost all of his posts are answer to other quotes and in last page he answered newcomb's post which was the last one and then went back to answer cuth's whose post was before and gave me "posting just to post" vibes). Both of these things are >rand w ime

for context:





i'll yolo a sunbae w read (you'll do amazing in champs tho! genuinely)

this is the early ladd readlist (one of his first non rvs posts) that i sussed him because of, it would make sense to include one wolf :P Also considering the later posts about monty its kinda weird. It feels like ladd wants this list to look real? But this is also the only post from monty before that ladd post

Gotta say the Mafia stalker can't expect to get much action in this setup. Like, the only thing it can track is the town sorceror, and there's no stopping the town sorceror's last action on N2 without pushing them D2, and there's little point to that. Watching the target of a sorceror is even more useless, since there's never going to be a strategy in pushing a compulsive suicide bomber.

I'm ready for my vesting.

This might be the most interesting post of the flipped woofs/monty stuff?

i saw that post and your monty push

you don't really push lhf like you did monty as a villager ime, in fact I think 1 of yours (and visor actually) biggest villa tells is that you tend to see the "what if they are a vilager angle" of the so called easy mislunches, like you are doing with cape for example (regardless of whether or not he is a villager)

you going after monty was spooky, then I saw the other orgers thought he was a wolf too so maybe I was missing some meta but from a quick skim of 2 of his games he seems like a perfectly competent wolf so i dont realy see whats up

but i guess I overstimated how much you believe both your monty wolf read on yrou stuff wrt cuth



yougotus.gif

@Winston Hughes how much of the thread had you read when you made this post?



couple of zack's post overnight actually gave me the FEAR

1) calling cuth out for asking too many questions felt level 0

2) the monty push


i actually really liked some of cuth stuff overnight which is incredible cause i usually don't even get what they are saying



this was a real nice thought

like, if theyre teamed, ladd is going for it pretty hard tbh

monty comes into thread and posts a semi jokey vote on monstr, is it just me or does it look like w/w action?

ladd
newcomb
montmorency

all of these are good targets

Voting Newcomb is a dumb idea katze. Vote Ender instead.

there are waaaaall catchup posts like this, he is kinda pushing ender a bit, but mentions in the other direction are few/non-existent.


and okay this is (i think) the only "response" or mention of monty (and its got ladd + monstr) from ender's posts and im not sure its relevant but i want it to be

ladd asks about monty here, kinda leaves it up to others to help him make an opinion on him. Not sure if it says anything, i might just be seeing what i want to see rn.



tldr and main conclusions:

the monstr interaction really looks like it could be w/w

on top of that, ladd gave monty a townread early in the first quoted post here, and proceeded to... this sentence

you going after monty was spooky, then I saw the other orgers thought he was a wolf too so maybe I was missing some meta but from a quick skim of 2 of his games he seems like a perfectly competent wolf so i dont realy see whats up

this just.. doesn't make sense? paraphrased the way i read it it says "people who know him well thought he was wolf so i read his previous games and he is a good wolf, so i dont see why you would wolfread him"

like

if you see someone is a good wolf, and people who know them well wolfread them

how does that land in a townread from you, and a shield?



I mean, it mostly looks bad for ladd (lol), but if i turn it around i think yes it can be to put a shield up on a townie that a lot of people push
but it could definitely also be about a teammate that he shields and has a read that he wants cred for when they get ml'ed

and combined with the early readslist post i think

it's just monty lol

[Dobby]

it's weird

i just looked

him randomly saying haha i was joking about vest right before detonation is funny

i interpreted it as him just not being caught up with thread tbh, i also read pbp and asked about the vest when it was already said who had it but i hadnt reached that point in the ketchup

[katze]

gm, wont be around for long cause i have an appointment at 3 but

at risk of sounding like im a wolf expanding the PoE or whatever, i don't think players voting ladd should get credit due to his specific role - the n3 sorc isn't reallllllly a strong PR (neither of the wolf PRs are that meaningful) since all the sorcerers do is effectively accelerate the game a day and the wolf one is the one that follows that rule the most because like, the town sorc can theoretically target a player who was unlikely to get NKed or yeeted. mafia sorc almost always targets a clear villager (which gives town a controlled KP, effectively mafia NK + town daykill) or they target a wolf whos 100% dying (which gives mafia a dayvig while also killing a wolf, effectively mafia NK + town daykill)

with all of that said - i still do think they should get a lot of credit, not because ladd was the n3 sorc but because ladd was ladd and the other two flipped wolves aren't players i think are quite That Elite™, so like. why bus ladd over the other two flippd wolves




anyway uh. i feel like im dying today and i'm prob not going to try to stop it

[Dobby]

gm, wont be around for long cause i have an appointment at 3 but

at risk of sounding like im a wolf expanding the PoE or whatever, i don't think players voting ladd should get credit due to his specific role - the n3 sorc isn't reallllllly a strong PR (neither of the wolf PRs are that meaningful) since all the sorcerers do is effectively accelerate the game a day and the wolf one is the one that follows that rule the most because like, the town sorc can theoretically target a player who was unlikely to get NKed or yeeted. mafia sorc almost always targets a clear villager (which gives town a controlled KP, effectively mafia NK + town daykill) or they target a wolf whos 100% dying (which gives mafia a dayvig while also killing a wolf, effectively mafia NK + town daykill)

with all of that said - i still do think they should get a lot of credit, not because ladd was the n3 sorc but because ladd was ladd and the other two flipped wolves aren't players i think are quite That Elite™, so like. why bus ladd over the other two flippd wolves




anyway uh. i feel like im dying today and i'm prob not going to try to stop it

AND MONTY TRIED TO UNVOTE LADD AT :01 TO MAKE HIM NOT TOP WAGON!!

Unvote

so yes, monty definitely doesn't get cred for it.


only sus



monty you get sus.

[Dobby]

i dont really want to... reevaluate more than this

like, all dead townies has sussed or voted monty at several stages of the game

monty is in several players legacies


monty has done sussy stuff




im not doing much more work until monty ded :p

[katze]

im already voting monty :3

[Dobby]

im already voting monty :3

revote then

[katze]

does cape's vest fps matter at all?

i glossed over it earlier but imo its like

if i look at it from "someone who isn't really a FPSer trying to be fancy" then it falls under "a really bad try but it might just be villagery because of how bad it was"

with that said i don't entirely know what they were expecting to accomplish with it - which isn't a great sign either

if cape was more experienced at FPSing i'd probably be more inclined to call it wolfy but afaik he rly isn't

[katze]

revote then

vote: dobby

peepee

[katze]

vote: monty

poopoo

[Dobby]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

if its not monty my main susses are katze and cape tbh but im never not voting monty today so ye. after that prolly cuth/hk

[Dobby]

vote: dobby

peepee

vote: monty

poopoo

you just posted like this because you want to be top poster

[katze]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

if its not monty my main susses are katze and cape tbh but im never not voting monty today so ye. after that prolly cuth/hk

i think its kinda just in monty/cape, HK is kinda bordering my "never a wolf" tier and cuth... i still don't understand why people are super skeptical of him but i strongly suspect it won't matter anyway

you just posted like this because you want to be top poster

guilty as charged

better vote me out so you can take my spot <3

[Cuthillius]

vote: monty

sorry for voting you through eod katze

[katze]

vote: monty

sorry for voting you through eod katze

just say it was because of #TheFear and ill add it to my postgame compilation

[Cuthillius]

just say it was because of #TheFear and ill add it to my postgame compilation

it was because of #TheFear

[Dobby]

i think its kinda just in monty/cape, HK is kinda bordering my "never a wolf" tier and cuth... i still don't understand why people are super skeptical of him but i strongly suspect it won't matter anyway



guilty as charged

better vote me out so you can take my spot <3

its mostly because benneh, rask and sleep are in my nope never voting tier and just below that are hk and cuth so i wouldnt call it skeptical but if not in you cape monty then yes thats the next tier (im too dumb to count how many yoinks we have left)

[Cuthillius]

its mostly because benneh, rask and sleep are in my nope never voting tier and just below that are hk and cuth so i wouldnt call it skeptical but if not in you cape monty then yes thats the next tier (im too dumb to count how many yoinks we have left)

i'm out of touch with reality what's your reasoning on sleep clear

[Dobby]

i'm out of touch with reality what's your reasoning on sleep clear

Im bad at remembering stuff but like I basically cleared him based on him reaction in my push d1. I'm pretty sure I've written a lot of other things that I'd be very surprised if he was wolf for, but I don't remember and don't want to read back

I think it's in my summaries but I'm lazy rn

[hollowkatt]

AND MONTY TRIED TO UNVOTE LADD AT :01 TO MAKE HIM NOT TOP WAGON!!






so yes, monty definitely doesn't get cred for it.


only sus



monty you get sus.

@Montmorency why did you try to unvote Ladd

[Cuthillius]

@Montmorency why did you try to unvote Ladd

he explained it sod2

wagonomics lol