The game coming down to whether or not I can correctly read into wolf spew of someone I've never played with before
The game coming down to whether or not I can correctly read into wolf spew of someone I've never played with before
oh right thats true
i got called word salady and whatever the other thing they said from lanata
taking it from all sides this game
Lol fmpov i was never partnered with lantana either
Btw don’t worry about defending yourselves, i just lay out thoughts in the thread i have for now, i still have to re-read, im just picking things accessible to think about atm with the time i have and that seem entertaining to think about, hope that makes sense
I am afraid i might actually wallpost when im in the re-reading sesh, normals turn me into something real ugly
I would kindly ask everyone to not defend themselves and instead solve wherever possible and I will also ask that you have faith everything will turn out fine by the end even if we miss today (the point of having this belief is that it will make you less likely to defend yourself perhaps) not the end of the world if we yeet wrong and if I shoot wrong that’s on me
You are not to blame if you die today, it’s me if anything. Best you can do is to feed as much info as possible so that me making the shot won’t have to be hard. If you want to towncase yourself I guess you can, but you have to think that we only have 24 hours to figure it out and if you spend a lot of it defending yourself and you die anyway, the common good gets nothing
I know it’s frustrating to get yeeted if you are villa in this scenario, but if it’s not preventable, the best thing you can do is to help the vig see the clearer view <3
I’ll be back, you’ll know when you see giant wallposts
Here are the Visor/Lan interactions day 1 in an easy to parse spoiler (its for my purposes, ignore if you wnat)
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
fair lmao
So now I'm going to spend the next 4 hours showing you all why I am not a wolf
[spoiler]ok im just being a little shit lol, its totally fine insomnia [/spoil]
"Yes my posting style can change
I don't think this is something that is uncommon for ww players. I think anyone who has played with me prior in games would agree with that"
villagery snark imo
Visor,
Not to like, get super in the weeds about this cause it's small on the grand scale of things, but off the top of your head if you were a wolf would you feel obligated to v read me quickly? No long explanation needed, just a quick yes/no/context-dependent
You can be mad with me, i got big heart and im STOIC
I can take it, if it helps you SOLVE after :p
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
and the ephem/lan interactions
While you're being a doll, can you get the Lantana sunbae interactions out too :p
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
thats me/lan or everytime i talk about lan to someone else
Basically where I'm at right now is that based on interactions with the dead wolf, night kill analysis (with the curtain joke explained), my feelings during our numerous interactions, and my general feelings on "who is trying to solve the game" purposes I feel like Visor is a villager but I have to come up with an answer of "what were the wolves doing at eod1 if there are v/v/v wagons and Lan starts going at Ephem".
I am going to read that end of day under the lens of Lan/Ephem being the wolf team and will try to see if I can understand a scenario in which it makes sense. If I can, I'm going to vote Ephemeral and be done with it. If I cannot, I am going to grumble and sleep on it hoping my tomorrow brain has it click better.
im gonna eat dinner, relax for a bit, then spend 1 hr to 1.5 hours on this and thats gonna be it till eod (except for maybe minor comments).
ill be 'around' for the next 6 hours or so
At :15 the wagons are 3 ender, 3 insomnia, 1 mischief, 1 raskol.
Lan comes in with this vote:
No other posts about Ephem are made until :40 when Lantana makes this post ?not subtly defending wagons? and asking about Ephem. The wagons are 3 Ender, 3 insomnia, 1 mischief, 1 ephemeral. The earlier Raskol vote was Lan so they just moved:
Insomnia takes a 4/3/1 lead over Ender and Ephem with 10 minutes to go. Lan makes this post talking about Insomnia already flipping:
With 7 minutes to go Ender votes Ephem and Lantana immediately replies they may vote Ender at eod:
5 minutes to go Lan says check this wagon if people will actually listen to me:
3 minutes to go Lan starts tying Ephemeral to Rask as w/w
No more posts are made by Lan about Ephem and instead are spent talking to dya about null reads.
Under a lens of ?what is going on if they are w/w? I think I have a solution: The wagons are all villagers and Lan starts some small distancing. They don't expect anyone to listen to them (hence the ?if people are actually going to listen to me? post later). They've basically flipped Insomnia in their head already so they think this eod is in the clear. When the Ephem wagon gets a bit of steam they immediately shade the person voting Ephem and then start tying Ephem W to Rask W in a ?wait not, don't? and ?well I'll chain these together if it goes bad? way. Then they spend the rest of eod talking to Dya about null reads because they don't want to get more people on Ephem but doesn't want to defend either. If they are willing to want to look right for ?defending wagons? that are going to flip villa it's reasonable they would continue that action and want to look right for voting Ephem while we chopped villagers.
I'm going to Vote: ephemeral
Not being able to figure out why Lan pushed Ephem as wolves was the reason for me to defend Ephem throughout yesterday but I now can see a plausible scenario where it makes sense. Once I have that I can give more weight to the classically villagery things I've been seeing from Visor throughout the game. I've liked his interactions with the wolf way more, I've thought his entire process on Mischief wasn't trying to force a mischop and was genuinely listening and weighing my words vs his reads there, the Nks viewed him as towny, and frankly if I've interacted with him this much and not gotten any bad vibes it's probably just because he's a villager. The alternative is that I got pocketed and I don't want to live in that world so I won't.
here's where i'm at in a nutshell.
I like sunbaes interactions with lantana better. They don't feel like they are on the same wavelength. It feels like sunbaes responses are not matching up perfectly, and they don't seem particularly enthusiastic about doing anything about lantana. They make a village read on them, it carries on through the day. It's a lightish villa read, and sunbae specifically does not have them in the 4 man group that he thinks are much stronger villagers. If sunbae was a wolf and his intention was to townread his partner, i think I would see a greater effort from him to do so. ephemerals interactions with lantana are nonexistent basically, so not much to judge on there. The epehemeral read makes zero sense, has no backing and just comes out of nowhere in a spot where multiple villagers are dying.
you have to ask yourself what is the point of the push at that point in time? there are two options:
a) distancing
b) to kill another villager
in the a) scenario, because this is a vig game, and the wagons were locked up, they decide to engage in a bit distancing to set up their partner in case they are vigged randomly, or need to look good later, its basically a potential get out of jail free card you can pick up later if things go wrong for either of you.
b) theoretically yes, this is viable. It is also pointless. they ALREADY wolfread enderwiggin for most of the day. they don't need to switch. maybe they wanted to look like they cared so they spiced up the eod.
it is possible they just thought ephemeral was an easy push so they decided to push the wagon. but it is weird how they handled it, theres no real build up to it, theres no i wolfread eph for this, its just out of the blue
is the only background to it.I note a POE of Rasko Ender and Taffy written in your reads list but no comments on Taffy's bigger post that immediately followed.
(that is wolfy!)
Why no comments? I found it a touch towny on a surface level
that said, lantana hard townreading sunbae and sunbae townreading lantana does hurt my soul a little.
so the question is, do i think its a bus or a push? it doesn't make a lot of sense as a real bus, and they don't seem comfortable on the wagon. but it also doesnt really make sense as a random villager kill because the villager they already wanted to kill was top wagon. so i leans towards it looking like distancing in a situation where they thought they could get away with it.
the next question is: the nightkills. dya and raskol.
dya was probably just killed because of lantana read + good player. they didnt really mention sunbae or ephemeral.
why was raskol killed? because he claimed vig? because the wolf didn't believe insomnia? this kinda points towards sunbae wrt not believing insomnia, though if i was a wolf in sunbaes shoes and i was pushing against insomnia, i might be tempted to kill insomnia because it wouldnt make sense from my pov in thread and ppl may village read it.
raskol expresses some suspiscion towards eph d2, and some tinfoil towards sunbae
i think i lean towards the wolf not believing insomnia - which means they killed raskol.
which might lean towards sunbae as a wolf.
as an overall point i think sunbae has been more villagery in thread than ephemeral. there are some sunbae posts that set the sirens going off (the i townread lantana post eod1, their relentless push of insomnia (though i can hardly blame him)).
basically:
raskol kill points to sunbae
overall posting points to eph
eod1 is.... kinda half points to eph
its a tough call, theres not a huge amount to read eph on this game. i think sunbae has been villagerier and if he is the wolf here, well, well done, you can stop claiming i can read you well :P
im not sold on my thoughts here, i can def see lantana just pushing another villager because they thought itd look good/could get away with it, but their weird hangups around eph actually dying skeeved me out as i mentioned yday
anyway ymmv, thats what im thinking rn. i need to reread over d2 a bit more.
i am hoping that either way, you dont shoot me cause i think i have by far the best interactions and i think ive done an okay job of solving evne if my results have not been great lol :P
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
quote dump part 1 of me/visor interaction about mischief (more to come and discussion on it, just seems like theres a max # of quotes possible)
theres a world where sunbae/lantana just decided to townread each other and just keep going
depends on the kind of person lantana is. i tried to find new zealand players on mu and gave up lmao
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
part 2
Bookmarks