Casual 9er Game Thread

[Hally]

#inbennehwetrust

[Montmorency]

Vulgard's flip does change some stuff, yeah. By my last stint in the thread I had decided the way Hally interacted about Vulgard wasn't w/w, and I thought that if Vulgard was a wolf then Hally's read of the game state throughout day 1 was pretty good with you/neb being villa and that coupled with my feelings on Ender would make the game pretty clear cut.

With it not being the case I've gotta work through the various options. If Hally is a wolf I don't think Mont or Barto can be wolves with the way Mont has been trying to get a Hally thunderdone going and the way Hally tried to vote for Barto as the day progressed and needed a non-Hally wagon. I'm back at my "If it's Hally, the way they kept defending Neb/Zack to me makes me think it's because it's one of you" thought that I had at one point yesterday.

If Hally is a villager then the main wagons all day were all town between me/vulgard/hally. If that's the case I think my first look is Mont for vocally defending vVulgard while tryng to turn me/hally into a thunderdome given it seemed obvious reading it that Vulgard was dying as that eod progressed. I have that lingering Zack/Neb fear still that I'm trying to squash but I, how to say this without being obnoxious, feel like if the team is zack/neb and I've been barking up that tree a lot day 1 you two just rid yourselves of me? Maybe that's silly with the way I got heat during day 1 but it's how I feel so shrug emoji.

So I'm currently juggling a few different worlds of like Hally + you/neb or Mont + Barto or maybe something weird like Barto + Neb where it was just a stuck vote on a teammate while villagers were getting wagoned.

Gonna try and work through it over the next little bit and see where I land

In my notes I have this post listed as "Post 615 is key. Sun-Ender??? Sun spew Hally" but I'm not sure what that means in retrospect.

[Zack]

[Montmorency]

vote: zack

Look, if Sunbae is town, there's basically no way for town to win, i.e. for at least one townie to join me on mafia in practice. In principle:

If Sunbae is town, Zack-Hally can do whatever the heck they please as Monty-Ender wagons are no threat to them and neither of themselves will attract two votes. Ender-Hally: ??? I guess Hally might as well feint onto Zack. Zack-Ender probably would handle D3 as they have, especially after the Sunbae dump.

If Sunbae-Ender, Ender has to be on the watch for any traction his own wagon might get. (I'm assuming Sunbae stays true to his word and misses EOD.)

If Sunbae-Zack the game is finished unless Hally and Ender are solid on the Zack-wagon.

Sunbae-Hally: Also pretty much invincible but I chose to rule out this scenario for a mini early on.


If Hally is town, Zack-Ender is the scenario she puts to the test if her vote is legit.

I'll hold my vote for now.

[Zack]

My foregone explanations on all the things she said are sufficient. Us ITT:



I'm tempted to cast blame on Barto, since with a bit of input from his end we could have overwhelmed Zack D2 when there was a chance (4 votes). But really it's just me for lacking the wim, coherence, or cognitive power to concretely solve this game based on what I've read. Motivation is lacking too given that unless all the townies vote together they have a ~1% chance of victory, and I don't see Town unifying today.

can you please expand? If you're town then I really need some more help seeing your perspective

[Zack]

I'm looking back through sunbae's posts this phase and the tossing out ender/hally as a possibility seems weak, and clearing hally entirely based on interactions I'm not sure passes the smell test

worried the team is ender/hally or hally/sunbae or sunbae/ender and monty is just a villager being uncooperative and stubborn for whatever reason

[Zack]

if sunbae's not coming back and is a villager, we are basically forced to all pile on monty and hope he's a wolf or we lose.

if sunbae's a wolf - assuming sunbae/monty isn't a thing, in which case they were explicitly setting sunbae up for a good f3 - then me + monty + the other villager need to all pile on sunbae or his exact partner (which seems like a long shot given everyone's stances)

[Zack]

I'm gonna stay on ender until forced to move

think he is the likeliest wolf based on posts and afaict the only person he clearly isn't w/w with is me.

[Zack]

if it is sunbae/hally, there was obvious reason to ether rask n1 and they were pmuch forced to kill benneh last night - ender top towned both of them, monty and I drawing too much suspicion and good ml targets for f5.

The way they interacted d1 would be surprising, but not close to the most surprising w/w interactions I've seen, and the way they've interacted since Sunbae switched to vulgard d1 could easily be partnered.

That said, this feels more like fitting the evidence aroudn the conclusion than the other way around and I don't think it's winnable anyway, so gg if that's the case

[Zack]

forum is bugging the hell out every post

I'm starting to wonder if it really is hally/ender and I was initially correct but got distracted by monty. hally hasn't really done anything in f5, maybe saw they got cleared and monty was gonna get spitroasted and coasted, and I just keep coming back to ender being a wolf. then again if this is the world I'm the only villager who thinks it's actually a realistic possibility so either I'm wrong or screwed lol

[Montmorency]

can you please expand? If you're town then I really need some more help seeing your perspective

Each of you has spent the game elaborating at length why every, or at least almost every, other player could be maf. Even now no one really - in public - is willing to hard-clear another player.

I just have a lower word count.

D1 is really really so uncomplicated that even my few posts should account for my position. I was starting to TL Vulgard, Barto had a day-pass no matter what, and everyone else started null. Sunbae and Hally took control of the thread and, in my opinion, handled interactions and reads in a sub-genuine way that mostly helped condition the field for a variety of scenarios. Both Sunbae and Hally had seemed poised for wagons at various times throughout the day, with Hally finally becoming the CW to Vulgard. It's... only logical that I would offer a Sunbae-Hally TDome.

I'm not going to present any ISO-walls in this game to try to narrativize my suspicions for the thread, and at any rate I can't even synthesize a single must-die differential read, meaning it would be a lot of effort gambling that Sunbae is scum and a no-show and all the townies among Ender-Zack-Hally notice something in the walls that compels them to join me in voting him or his partner.

To angleshoot my previous post, if Sunbae is AFK for EOD as scum, things might become clearer toward EOD. Who would Sunbae be confident enough to hand the keys to? Ender as partner really can't afford to pack it up and go AFK as well, since that would be a dweebish way to snatch defeat. I think scum-Sunbae is more comfortable peacing out if Hally or Zack is the partner, and I just don't accept Sunbae-Hally all-gaming a strategy suited for twice the player base.

If Sunbae is scum the only way to beat them is to find their partner, which I haven't been able to do. According to my framework, if Sunbae is town, Ender is the best differential bet (Zack-Hally is already a foregone conclusion as I said).

There are almost no worlds in which EOD players allow this F5 to resolve 2-2-1, so I can't expect the dignity of a tiebreaker with Ender. Realistically I would have to either vote Zack and convince Ender to join, or vote Ender and convince Hally to join.

[Zack]

alright, thank you for the response and breakdown. if you're town, I'm sorry if my pestering was annoying but I was having a hard time seeing the process behind the reads you were presenting to the thread and that's kind of the key to townreading someone. If you're maf, I apologize for nothing

now let's kill ender

[Zack]

alright, thank you for the response and breakdown. if you're town, I'm sorry if my pestering was annoying but I was having a hard time seeing the process behind the reads you were presenting to the thread and that's kind of the key to townreading someone. If you're maf, I apologize for nothing

now let's kill ender

[Hally]

vote: ender

[Montmorency]

Hm actually I really hate that Monty post Sunbae just quoted.

bold mine

afaict these two thoughts are contradictory and I don't see how the second evolves so quickly after the first as a natural thought

he also voted barto a few posts later anyway and was thanking posts of people sussing barto all eod

Hmmm, two bad posts.

Zack's is worse, but Ender looks opportunistic in context for taking any excuse to detour from his elaborate suss on Zack and Hally and thereupon go absent.

Let's recap:

Reject Hally-Sunbae (and it's GG anyway).
Reject Zack-Hally (plausible but GG because wagonomics checkmate so no point contesting).

Zack-Sunbae (only beatable with Monty-Hally-Ender combined)
Ender-Sunbae
Ender-Zack
Ender-Hally

Ender is not the *worst* oust mechanically, but substantively I have doubts it continues the game.

vote: ender

Genuinely disconcerting. I may be boxed in here, but I'm gonna wait to see if Ender shows up.

[Visor]

Players Votes

EnderWiggin 3 (Zack, Montmorency, Hally)
Montmorency 2 (EnderWiggin, Sunbae)
[

[Montmorency]

Remarkable that my objectively-closest pairings for Mafia are with Zack and Ender, given that they're also the only available options I have to salvage the game today.

Players Votes

EnderWiggin 3 (Zack, Montmorency, Hally)
Montmorency 2 (EnderWiggin, Sunbae)
[

Oh yeah, I'm voting Ender.

@EnderWiggin Get in here, it's you-Zack TDome, assuming mafia aren't just entertaining themselves with some light theater. It's either you, or you get Hally to pile onto Zack.

if you?re a villager and think zack/ender aren?t w/w this is indeed what you should do

Actually a weird comment to make, as it's affirming a tautology.

Hally: Town
Sunbae: Town
Zack-Ender: Anti-pair

Then the only remaining pairs are Monty-Zack or Monty-Ender. Like, who makes the comment 'If you think Player X is mechanically guaranteed to be a hit, voting them is indeed what you should do'?

Made more amusing by Sunbae's wall 12 minutes later:

6. The wolves are either Mont/Zack or Ender/Mont. That is my solve. I am voting Mont and not moving.

Just one of those Sunbae-Hally moments I guess.

[Hally]

ignore for now, just grabbing stuff

I had Sunbae gut wolfy early too but the complete lack of defense as people agreed with it make me ? it

Monty is probably town. Benneh is probably town. You're maybe town. The reason for you is weaker and boils down to "The read on me due to previous games where I was mislunched feels legit."

Idk guv felt towny.

Can you explain how you became consensus POE by D3 that time and how it does or doesn't apply here?

Uh. I became consensus POE because I did the thing where I draw way too much attention to myself D1 as wolf and then couldn't shake it because I defended the wolf that died D1.

I do not intend to defend a wolf that dies D1 this game? Smile.

Perfect. How strongly do you feel about Hally?

I don't think Zack could be scum, he posted the sentence he used as town.

Uh. Not that strongly.

I don't think I have a good grasp on her.

But that being said I haven't yet found any compelling reasons to sus her.

[Hally]

why can i not get rid of those quotes and quote new posts?

[Hally]

apparently i have to manually uncheck each quote to clear them which is too much work so i?m just quoting one at a time

#dealwithit

[Hally]

actually i can copy paste them into one post

[Hally]

rest of D1 stuff

I suppose. How do you feel about me voting Sunbae?

I support the freedom to vote who you want.

I just would disagree with the vote.

More chill than I expected.

[Montmorency]

Hally-Sunbae GG
Hally-Zack GG
Ender-Zack GG
Ender-Hally GG
Sunbae-Zack 5% winnable
Sunbae-Ender 20% winnable

Wagonomics more or less guarantees my ouster in 4/6 pairings. Don't think I can rally against Sunbae though. #WhereIsEnder

[Zack]

are these all of the d1 interactions?

[Hally]

D2 stuff

Could punt Monty too.

Raskol was obv town but idk why they get blasted like that, gonna check their ISO in a bit just in case.

Zack's poked at a lot of things but I never feel like he's trying hard to direct thread which implies he's comfortable with letting other people lead it which doesn't feel congruent with how town is dying right now.

Also just gut tells me he's a wolf. Which is pretty dumb.

Also I don't think Benneh is wolf with Monty and if Zack is town I'm townreading a wolf.

Not impossible but not what I'm thinking about now.

[Hally]

are these all of the d1 interactions?

afaict yeah

i just looked at it from ender’s side because i don’t remember mont mentioning ender really but if someone wants to do a skim feel free

i don’t have time to look on my phone

[Zack]

Yeah ender's progression on monty is pretty rough, I mentioned it earlier in the phase. Reading through all the back and forth in a row like that, I could even see Monty being villa and Ender being a wolf that really just didn't give an f about him

[Zack]

afaict you got the d1 stuff

for d2 I found this near SOD:

Ok, let me put it as no one else scum-reads you, as of SOD. I can't technically vouch for the players yet to appear, but the EOD status of Neb, Barto, and Ender AFAIK was away from SRing you. Ender for his part definitively defended you, beyond his fake vote.



Vote: Sunbae

And you could be setting up chained MLs of Hally-Monty FTW. There's always a way out.



How serious does it need to be? "Vulgard is 100% town and you'd better oust him over my dead body"? I laid out a pretty clear POE, even if the "reasons" will never be to your standard.



Remind me, genuinely.

and this during EOD:

bart has been lightly wolf reading ender but not outside the realm of distancing really

mont i don?t remember saying anything about him

I've had him in the nulls with non-Sun/Hally/Bart.

then today he came in convinced wolves were both in me/hally/sunbae and wasn't considering ender despite not townreading him either.

It's been awhile since I've seen Monty wolf but he usually likes to distance/bus (though he's insisted this is a mischaracterization). It's definitely odd but frankly I'm having a hard time seeing why he had such a blind spot for Ender all game as a villager, yes even after I jsut said I coudl see it being w/v a few posts ago - sue me

for now I want to flip ender then figure out the rest in f3, just kill the wolfiest person

[Zack]

and i think he has by far the worst f5 posts of anyone

[Montmorency]

Sunbae EOD2: Bart > Mont > Neb
Sunbae D3: No witnesses

Mafia Warehouse Disco #17.

Everyone is scummy and I can't do anything about it.

then today he came in convinced wolves were both in me/hally/sunbae and wasn't considering ender despite not townreading him either.

It's been awhile since I've seen Monty wolf but he usually likes to distance/bus (though he's insisted this is a mischaracterization). It's definitely odd but frankly I'm having a hard time seeing why he had such a blind spot for Ender all game as a villager, yes even after I jsut said I coudl see it being w/v a few posts ago - sue me

for now I want to flip ender then figure out the rest in f3, just kill the wolfiest person

Because it's not in my style to aggressively solve into nulls.