Casual 9er Game Thread

[Zack]

"but sunbae, why do you think you get to choose the thunderdome"

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

...alright I don't know how I could ever vote sunbae after this

it helps that #1139 (and the rest of your posts this phase) was/were excellent

[EnderWiggin]

Beat you there Sunbae. Lol.

[Montmorency]

- I will also be looking for people that seem to pile on or adjust their reads with the flow of the thread rather than having their own thoughts/opinions. I think this will be the key one but we know now that at no point were wolves really concerned near eods as both were runaway villager wagons.

Technically, Hally, Zack. Counterwagons. But anyone who could be a partner to Hally was fairly comfortably parked on her CW Vulgard, so there's likely not much information in late D1 wagonomics. Notably in D2, Sunbae hard-defended Zack with a late vote switch, though I wouldn't say Zack was under real threat with just Neb and Ender being serious on his wagon.

- I have, clearly, been on my own this game. There have been no pocketing attempts, no persuasion, no trying to get others to follow me. I did not at any point try to convince someone else to vote Hally, to vote Vulgard, to vote Mont, or to vote Bart with me. I laid out my reasons for voting where I did and just voted there.

I wouldn't be able to derive why that's AI for you. For the rest of the content of your self-assessment, what could be AI in it needs a set of townie eyes ISOing you for misrepresentation. I'm not going to be that guy however. I will say this post is very Pizza-y in format.

why not ender?

He's kind of just hanging out null all game, and I'm not sure there's anyone he can't be partners with. Thus I can't solve with him as scum, whereas there's a slim chance with the other three, who all have more scum equity independently within the progress of the game.



Here's where I'm at: In the first round, the only player I had begun to TR - Vulgard - was killed. In the second round, the only player I had begun to TR - Nebbie - was killed. I found Sunbae in Sorc, and I haven't been able to this time. I found Zack the last couple games I played with him, but he's far from posting himself clear in this game. Hally meanwhile gut-reads to me differently than Mass Effect, where I was utterly fooled by her, though this intuition could be double-edged. What I will say about Hally is that she fooled everyone else pretty thoroughly in Mass Effect, whereas in this game she's taken a bit of heat. (Someone might refer to Mass Effect to read Sunbae, who was NKed D1, by the by.)

I'm tempted to KISS and settle on a Hally-Zack pairing, since N1 Rask kill is the perfect SPK from that pair's perspective, as is the N2 Neb kill. Maybe I'm just stupidly-wrong again, but that's the best I've got for now.

I'll read the rest of the day another time, since I see Sunbae and co. dashed out 160 posts in 3.5 hours overnight and the thread's been dead since.

[Montmorency]

in the moment during EOD my read on monty almost entirely flipped. I thought he made some solid posts, and when the wagons were me/him he tried to get me+others to move onto barto instead of trying to bury me, which I figured pointed to him being genuinely suspicious of barto and wanting to flip him. overnight I was thinking about what the game would look like if Monty was a villager, and I'm pretty sure it was one where the wolves were complacent d2 and not overly concerned which of barto/me/monty died. benneh didn't strike me as complacent and he made some good posts (insert grumbling about some of his conclusions re: me ) I thought. Sunbae has kinda been in his corner doing his own thing all game, I know he is a good wolf and capable of convincing fake thoughts, but I'm not really seeing it and "his posts are fine, but he's a good wolf!" ain't doin it for me, that's not good enough. Also kinda pocketed by how he came in to vote Barto (p sure if he was a wolf he'd have just stayed away and hoped I managed to go over instead) and seemed pretty serious about the legacy post even if I'm not sure how he got there.

Which left hally/ender, which I think makes sense in a lot of ways. Obvious reason to kill rask (dunno about benneh, havent looked into that yet), especially since iirc after I mentioned my reading of that rask post - the one where he was like "I'll have words with ender if vulgard is town" - as being more of a "I still think he's town but I'll scold him for saving Hally who I think is a wolf," hally reacted like they hadn't considered it from that angle. So maybe they misinterpreted it (or correctly interpreted it and I'm wrong lol) as a burgeoning wolfread on ender after vulgard flipped, and obviously Rask was telegraphing an incoming Hally tunnel. Primo kill target. Hally makes a billion posts about how the kill makes no sense and not coming to any real conclusion about it that I recall, they both top town Sunbae to pocket him and try to shut down his d1 suspicion of Hally from resurfacing, Ender announces a no blast zone and lumps Hally with two villas (strong villa sunbae who no one really suspected anymore and was posting well, and Barto who was likely ml bait) and throws sus on me based on a vibe tell and claiming I had no clear stances d1 (which seemed clearly untrue fmpov and possibly even designed to bait me into bringing up how I defended hally and pushed for vulgard again, though that's maybe a bit tinfoily). Sorry for rambling, I think there was more to it which seemed obviously brilliant at the time but that was the main gist.

BUT



I almost immediately started doubting this when I saw Monty's nothing burger of an SOD post where he still hasn't really explained why he thinks the wolves are in that group then peacing out (and agree with hally that not mentioning ender was odd). Made me wonder if I misread Monty's EOD and got carried away focusing on the Rask nk pointing at Hally, when in theory I think ender/monty makes sense? And I have a sinking feeling that bladescape is wolfin' and just got cleared for bad reasons for doing something that is not really that difficult to do as a wolf. Maybe this team was worried about the me/sunbae/benneh squad finding each other in f5 and forming a voting bloc and decided to break it up - I was under too much suspicion to be killed, Sunbae didn't have as much threadpull as benneh (who does) and was possibly likelier to get distracted going after hally again? idk, have to go soon and won't be able to seriously post for awhile after but wanted to get this out there first (though I was hoping hally/monty would respond to my questions first to avoid letting them tailor their answers to what I posted but w/e)

also I touched on sunbae/hally as a possibility a bit yesterday and came away thinking it didn't make a ton of sense despite some things giving me pause. It's still a possibility for how they ended up not really threatening each other at all when it mattered and eventually moved to seemingly confident townreads on the other, I guess, but I don't think this is a winnable game state fmpov even if it is true so long hair dont care for now

Jumping to a random page, I do admit this is a good post. Not sure why you think I wouldn't kill you to self-pres though.

[Hally]

Here's where I'm at: In the first round, the only player I had begun to TR - Vulgard - was killed. In the second round, the only player I had begun to TR - Nebbie - was killed. I found Sunbae in Sorc, and I haven't been able to this time. I found Zack the last couple games I played with him, but he's far from posting himself clear in this game. Hally meanwhile gut-reads to me differently than Mass Effect, where I was utterly fooled by her, though this intuition could be double-edged. What I will say about Hally is that she fooled everyone else pretty thoroughly in Mass Effect, whereas in this game she's taken a bit of heat. (Someone might refer to Mass Effect to read Sunbae, who was NKed D1, by the by.)

I'm tempted to KISS and settle on a Hally-Zack pairing, since N1 Rask kill is the perfect SPK from that pair's perspective, as is the N2 Neb kill. Maybe I'm just stupidly-wrong again, but that's the best I've got for now.

I'll read the rest of the day another time, since I see Sunbae and co. dashed out 160 posts in 3.5 hours overnight and the thread's been dead since.

i don’t get how a me/zack team follows from what you said

if you can’t find sunbae or zack and think i’m different from my wolf game, shouldn’t your solve be sunbae/zack? i don’t get why he’s not in your solve

[Hally]

He's kind of just hanging out null all game, and I'm not sure there's anyone he can't be partners with. Thus I can't solve with him as scum, whereas there's a slim chance with the other three, who all have more scum equity independently within the progress of the game.

also this is such a weird thing to say

the idea that he’s null and fits with everyone so you’re not gonna look into him in lylo is like… a baffling statement

[Hally]

ngl i have some #fear that w!sunbae saw me say he was difference checked with monty and decided to go all in on burying v!monty?s booty and clearing me to get me firmly onside and win today with ender or zack as his bro

but i?m tempted to just say he can have the win if he went super saiyan wolfing here and just vote monty

[Hally]

i’m kinda scared though because monty’s pop in just now seemed completely unaware of the threadstate

if he’s a wolf surely his bro has told him sunbae is going ham on him and they’ll have to thunderdome but he didn’t seem to know that and randomly doesn’t have sunbae in his solve after susing him the entire game, which doesn’t really make sense for a wolf who knows he’s gotta dome sunbae

idk lol

[Hally]

but if he’s a wolf he’s already getting bussed regardless of who his teammate is so he could just be in antispew now

meh

[Hally]

i feel like i should reread the game to make sure i’m not missing anything but honestly i’m too tired and don’t have the energy rn

maybe tomorrow though

i don’t really think i would vote anyone but monty today in any case, but who knows

[Hally]

it’s not lost on me that benneh died town reading sunbae and wolf reading zack

i still have nebulous #concerns about zack but trying to articulate them rn would require more brainpower than i currently here

[Hally]

*have

[Hally]

@Sunbae gth who’s the wolf in ender/zack?

[Zack]

it?s not lost on me that benneh died town reading sunbae and wolf reading zack

i still have nebulous #concerns about zack but trying to articulate them rn would require more brainpower than i currently here

Zack is townbronana from the syndicate
You know I'm town right?ZACK = VILLAGER
sponge my reads


plz no bully


ZACK IS TOWN DONT MISYEET HIM

[Hally]

zack, you think it?s just ender/mont?

[Zack]

I've read everything since last night and don't have much to say about it. Hally already covered anything I might've said wrt monty's posts

still thinking it's monty/ender

[Zack]

I've read everything since last night and don't have much to say about it. Hally already covered anything I might've said wrt monty's posts

still thinking it's monty/ender

[Hally]

the forum is bugging

it keeps saying it doesn’t send your post but it actually did

[Zack]

zack, you think it?s just ender/mont?

yeah most likely

ender/mont

ender/hally
mont/hally
sunbae/ender
sunbae/hally

sunbae/mont

pairing tier list, I guess? but I don't think I'm ever voting you or sunbae today

[Zack]

the forum is bugging

it keeps saying it doesn’t send your post but it actually did

don't ban me for double posting gh

the post so nice i made it twice

[Hally]

@Montmorency can you explain why you thought me/sunbae should thunderdome?

[Visor]

Players Votes

Montmorency 2 (EnderWiggin, Sunbae)
EnderWiggin 1 (Zack)

[Sunbae]

ngl i have some #fear that w!sunbae saw me say he was difference checked with monty and decided to go all in on burying v!monty?s booty and clearing me to get me firmly onside and win today with ender or zack as his bro

but i?m tempted to just say he can have the win if he went super saiyan wolfing here and just vote monty

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Sunbae]

i?m kinda scared though because monty?s pop in just now seemed completely unaware of the threadstate

if he?s a wolf surely his bro has told him sunbae is going ham on him and they?ll have to thunderdome but he didn?t seem to know that and randomly doesn?t have sunbae in his solve after susing him the entire game, which doesn?t really make sense for a wolf who knows he?s gotta dome sunbae

idk lol

[Hally]

good talk

vote: monty

[Visor]

Players Votes

Montmorency 3 (EnderWiggin, Sunbae, Hally)
EnderWiggin 1 (Zack)

[Montmorency]

Ender seems chillin' even though everyone ostensibly suspects him so I guess he could be scum, but that doesn't help me.

Hypothesis: The mafia are acting like they're winning right now.

Might as well rxn-test Vote: Ender however.

i don’t get how a me/zack team follows from what you said

if you can’t find sunbae or zack and think i’m different from my wolf game, shouldn’t your solve be sunbae/zack? i don’t get why he’s not in your solve

I most certainly included Sunbae in the solve in the one and only post I made about it today, I just decided that Zack-Hally might be the priority pairing (with Sunbae-Hally the lowest, though as I said another day I would place it high in the ranking in a 17er).

If I had to forecast, with some fuzziness in the middle:

Hally-Zack
Sunbae-Zack
Ender-Zack
Sunbae-Ender
Hally Ender
Hally-Sunbae

@Montmorency can you explain why you thought me/sunbae should thunderdome?

Because you were the scummiest pair at the time lol. I've already explained, it's not a lot to understand.

Zack is townbronana from the syndicate
You know I'm town right?ZACK = VILLAGER
sponge my reads


plz no bully


ZACK IS TOWN DONT MISYEET HIM

Zack ITT

[Zack]

that explains nothing. WHY were they the scummiest

[Montmorency]

that explains nothing. WHY were they the scummiest

My foregone explanations on all the things she said are sufficient. Us ITT:



I'm tempted to cast blame on Barto, since with a bit of input from his end we could have overwhelmed Zack D2 when there was a chance (4 votes). But really it's just me for lacking the wim, coherence, or cognitive power to concretely solve this game based on what I've read. Motivation is lacking too given that unless all the townies vote together they have a ~1% chance of victory, and I don't see Town unifying today.

[Hally]

vote: zack