Casual december game

[Raskolnikov]

Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

@Csargo, @hollowkatt, @Montmorency, @Ampharos, @dyachei, @EnderWiggin, @ladd, @Vulgard, @Boquise, @Renata, @Totally not Taffy, @Kagemusha

[Raskolnikov]

Ender (2): Monty, ladd
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Renata (1) : Csargo
Amy (1): Boquise

[Raskolnikov]

Ender (1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Renata (1) : Csargo
Amy (1): Boquise

EOD in 34 hours

[Renata]

@Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

Visor and Vulgard goats.

[Boquise]

Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

@Csargo, @hollowkatt, @Montmorency, @Ampharos, @dyachei, @EnderWiggin, @ladd, @Vulgard, @Boquise, @Renata, @Totally not Taffy, @Kagemusha

lmfao nice follow up on my post

[Boquise]

this means ender is town 100%

[hollowkatt]

this means ender is town 100%

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

3chars

[hollowkatt]

off to bed @ me with whatever

[Boquise]

i am kinda frustrated that i did not vote kage there when he was my first scum read and all. I realise that I have been leveling too much in this game, and assumed Kage was town based on how I imagine wolves in general would think

[Boquise]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

[EnderWiggin]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

I'm gonna need you to convince me Dya wasn't just pocketing Amy.

But I'm leaning the same way on Amy herself.

[Boquise]

I'm gonna need you to convince me Dya wasn't just pocketing Amy.

But I'm leaning the same way on Amy herself.

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

[Csargo]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

Is this a normal occurrence?

[Ampharos]

wow hello judging by the OP i have missed a LOT

i'm not sure i'll be able to plug back into this game in any meaningful way but i don't wanna be a COMPLETELY empty slot

[Csargo]

Ampharos was active for D1 and like half D2. I don't see why it's not possible?

[Boquise]

Is this a normal occurrence?

Imo it is because it isn't a useful pocket. It is better to pocket either a lhf townie and then allow them to get misyeeted, or to pocket an active power town for protection tbh

[Renata]

because amy is not a townie in this game wolves would care to pocket due to her inactivity tbh

I gonna keep harping on this but I don't think that that kind of blatantly obvious hard defense of a town player who other people are reading as scum is about pocketing that player at all. It's about looking reasonable or correct or something when that player dies and flips town. If one of them flips mafia and you immediately start going after the other for this reason alone with no additional justification I'm probably not arguing too hard, because it could be correct (nobody else is actually bound by my beliefs about how they're going play), but I am side-eyeing the hell out of you if you're wrong. Ladd spew or no Ladd spew. Stop insisting on something being certain when it's not. From someone who likes to talk about "nuance" you have none here. Why?

[Renata]

I'm not going to be here but somebody really needs to read Taffy in full. She's disappearing otherwise and that's not good. People are talking about her but nobody is doing real work.

I don't have any solid reads. Hollowkatt, Dyachei, Csargo (in that order) remain bottom of my PoE, but I haven't been able to keep up well and don't feel super informed. I don't remember anything Kage has done that feels solid town. Taffy has, but I liked Ladd's post in a vacuum too. I don't know about Monty at all and am just hoping that future flips might help there.

I did a post on Hollowkatt yesterday that needs looking at to see if it still holds up. I don't know if the obvious irritation over Monty's Boquise-HK pairing is meaningful, but I think the back-off after being called out on it might be. I also didn't like the way he projected that he hadn't been aware of Ladd's flip, by going through previous posts in strict chronological order. Bias speaking for sure but that felt artificial.

vote: Dyachei like I said, hope to be back before end of day.

[Boquise]

I gonna keep harping on this but I don't think that that kind of blatantly obvious hard defense of a town player who other people are reading as scum is about pocketing that player at all. It's about looking reasonable or correct or something when that player dies and flips town. If one of them flips mafia and you immediately start going after the other for this reason alone with no additional justification I'm probably not arguing too hard, because it could be correct (nobody else is actually bound by my beliefs about how they're going play), but I am side-eyeing the hell out of you if you're wrong. Ladd spew or no Ladd spew. Stop insisting on something being certain when it's not. From someone who likes to talk about "nuance" you have none here. Why?

I agree that that is a scum tactic, but I don't think Dya would use it here on Amy. Tho I think I saw her start walk back the shield a bit earlier today which works with the approach I am thinking of.

The only reason why I keep "insisting" on it, after my initial post where I laid out my thoughts, is because people keep asking me about it. I have not discredited any Amy solo or Dya solo case just because I cannot be sure. I am not trying to stop those reads. But I can still have that thought.

I have seen Dya play it like this and thats why I am not using much nuance on this matter. It has saved me from shame twice to trust their tone reads. I have also a memory of seeing them do this as scum towards a scum mate. But I havent seen them use their famous tone reads to clear a villa when they are scumming.

And it is fine that you would side-eye me. People usually side-eye me when I present the reads I feel sure of because I am acting so confident, then they misyeet me and in post game it is revealed that I was correct all along tbh. You going so hard against this makes me feel like I am correct on this one too and it makes me side-eye you tbh

[hollowkatt]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

this exists

[EnderWiggin]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

God I hate it.

[EnderWiggin]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

[Renata]

I have no useful thoughts on Kage. Unless there's something unexpectedly juice in the iso it's going to be a case of who gets eliminated from consideration and what worlds are left.

[Montmorency]

Boq and Tally are good cases to explore today.

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

Mechanically could be with anyone really (except HK for reasons I forget, and Amy because come on). Nothing militates against an independent scumread if you want one.

But...

If Kage is town then Mafia NEED him as an ML. I don't know that there's a single player alive who would venture to clear Kage - even Amy is approaching rand for most - so it's a real landmine of a slot that needs careful handling.

I'm not inclined to agree with that conclusion. I think there's actionable information contained therein and want to spend a lot of time on the people who looked vv disconnected from engagement yesterday throughout the day. Namely Taffy, Kage, Amy, Boq, with a side of Renata for good measure. This was to collate the votes. Now I'm going back through and reading the reasons they gave, if any, and where in the day we were.

Don't take it from me. To quote one of Pizza's essays:

What is harder to analyze is Bussing.

Because straight up killing a wolf is how town has to win the game.

A wagon of 7 votes appears on a wolf. Some of those have to be townies, but who? Some can be wolves, but even then, they might not be.

Town, in hunting my partners for bussing, will hurt their own townies who are solving properly.

Bussing creates the situation where town has to kill townies for doing things townies have to do in order to win games.

I am also very good at bussing. It's my strategy every game as a wolf, everyone knows it, and it still works, because it is the strongest strategy by far and it is anti-analysis.

7 people on a wolf. You're one of them and town. Which of the other 6 names are my partners? How many of them are?

Now, suppose you find them eventually. Wagon on my partner.

Which of the people on THAT wagon is a wolf? If any?

Remember, you also have to consider people who defended them, ignored them, distanced from them. All of those are also viable, so when I bus 80 percent of the time, the remaining 20 percent is my partners who are NOT getting caught when you suspect bussing.

But I bus and get bussed enough you HAVE to consider it.

Therefore, everyone on the second wolf wagon is a suspect besides yourself. And everyone off wagon as well.

Bussing, find partner 2 in a list of 10 names. Again, find partner 3 in a list of 9 names. Find partner 4 in a list of 7 names.

Bussing gets a wolf to endgame because once everyone in town has killed a wolf, everyone has town credit.

Which means no one has town credit. Everyone is null. Everyone is a suspect. Everyone can have bussed. It is anti-analysis.

The wolf nightkill can land on anyone, because everyone is equally villagery, and everyone knows the wolves hid within the townsiding strategy of bussing.

D3 started with potentially no one on the Mafia team being POEd. Late D3 was Mafia leader flipped with a goon getting heavily cased and wagoned. Totally different environment from D1-2. It's also why one of the worst actions Csargo has taken all game involved a case he made just prior to ladd's flip.

[hollowkatt]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

ego solve: kage is a wolf and they've been trying to kill me for days now

[hollowkatt]

God I hate it.

stop thinking my thoughts

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

this exists

[Csargo]

wp vulgard

[hollowkatt]

if ender is town, i think ladd could be scum, regardless of my own read of ladd. Because if Ender is town, ladd has strictly pushed only townies. This would mean that Amy is town too

Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

@Csargo, @hollowkatt, @Montmorency, @Ampharos, @dyachei, @EnderWiggin, @ladd, @Vulgard, @Boquise, @Renata, @Totally not Taffy, @Kagemusha

swag helluva shot vulgard

[hollowkatt]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

[EnderWiggin]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

It would.

But also I would explicitly not distance with him because that's how we got caught last time.