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  1. #1
    This Space For Rent Member Renata's Avatar
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    Default Re: Casual december game

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    In #1183 dya makes potentially their most detailed post of the game, casing Vulgard town. Ladd is currently all-in on Vulgard being town, and expresses so around the same time as dya (to name one instance). May be worthwhile to look more closely into how players related to Ender, Vulgard, and Amy in particular, as Mafia appear to have adopted a calculated collective approach toward each of them, perhaps as part of a long-term plan to shape the consensus POE.

    #1199: Renata asks dya to elaborate on their t-Vulgard case in the context of some Vulgard post. Dya delivers a hedgy Vulgard read in response. She then suddenly reverses outright and doesn't like Vulgard's posting anymore. [In retrospect, dya posting "Idk that it makes me think vulgard is a wolf, but I'm not reading him as villager as much" right after presenting a wall concluding that Vulgard is town was a tell, the exact same tell as with ladd.]
    ^^^
    This urges me toward hardclearing Renata, because this is clearly a slip by dya and it was the exact same flip-flop as wrt ladd later (in response to Visor's questions).

    I'm only getting increasingly attached to a POE of Taffy-Boq. Most likely to be wrong about Amp. Kage remains a pure wildcard. I doubt this game can be solved without at least trusting HK and Renata, and probably YOLO with Csargo. Also keep in mind, Taffy-Boq-Kage-Amy would each fit into a separate category in ladd's big D2 reads post (#1579), with Csargo sharing a category with dyachei, who has flipped ofc.

    Please read through the dya ISO for key interactions.

    Thoughts on how Boq specifically fits in worlds: Mafia seemed to be coordinating on developing collective POE, and all of ladd-Boq-dya adopted strong, interactive, reads on Amy. Ladd quasi-tunneled Amy, dya constantly interacted with Amy in a mutually-buddying way, and Boq helped dya generate content (such as creating a team balance on Vulgard reads) while linking them to Amy. Alternatively, Amy could be doing an open-scum drag show (and there's no way Amy and dya would not have been aware of how many connections they were creating). I prefer the former scenario. Also, Boq had a lot of shallow mutually-supporting interactions with ladd (see ISO).

    But there is some reason to treat them as anti-paired.

    My teams for now (last two unordered):
    Taffy-Boq
    Taffy-Amp
    Boq-Kage
    Taffy-Kage

    As I've laid out, there are good reasons to trust Csargo, HK, and Renata, great reasons to lock Ender, and I just flat-out refuse to believe Amp-Kage.
    I think Taffy gets lynched today and then I hope I'm dead before LYLO.

    I agree with this PoE for the most part.

    vote: Taffy

  2. #2

    Default Re: Casual december game

    Quote Originally Posted by Renata View Post
    My teams for now (last two unordered):
    Taffy-Boq
    Taffy-Amp
    Boq-Kage
    Taffy-Kage
    I think Taffy gets lynched today and then I hope I'm dead before LYLO.

    I agree with this PoE for the most part.

    vote: Taffy
    Definitely a take in danger of confbias, but I reserved most of my post-aggression for Taffy, even back into D3, while Renata's posting was oriented more toward pressuring Boq (such as in asking Taffy to vote Boq with her).

    Renata on Kage:

    Quote Originally Posted by Renata View Post
    Ok that was weird. It wasn't letting me post.

    I was trying to write that all else being equal I want to lynch Kage. I haven't done a shred of work overnight however.
    At the same time,

    Boquise, Monty, Csargo, Taffy, Kage, Hollowkatt, Ender

    I have, or have had at some point in the game, fairly confident town reads on everybody here except for Kage.
    Wondering if this is almost too disconnected from anything else going on to be mafia. [Re: Kage]

    I just don't know.
    General leans:

    Quote Originally Posted by Renata View Post
    Up to page 40, think that's as far as I'm getting. Impressions so far --

    Csargo and Hollowkatt look by far the best and are probably town and should be listened to.

    Boquise looks by far the worst.

    Amy's in this weird place where their tones in both direction read pure; I just don't like where Dyachei slotted her in one of their reads lists, it's like primo w/w slot (light town with two villagers).

    Monty, Kage, Ender, Taffy - nothing remotely indicative of alignment in relation to Dyachei, or literally no interactions at all.
    But she might have been the most active midgame player other than me, pound for pound.

    I've definitely been hoping to eat it lately. Vulgard I understand, even if his kill disappoints me. But if there is any particular advantage to killing Renata over me, it's hard to discern.

    Again with the confbias, but it could be that if I am less aggressive (on paper) against Boq, and Renata more, and Taffy ML costs me clout, then Renata is more immediately dangerous to scum than I am today, even if Boq was supposed to be next on my POE. First half or more of D4 was substantially Renata pressuring Boq, and she did vote Boq before voting Taffy. Also, Boq kept trying to find reasons to TR Renata despite - from their POV - the uinwarranted suspicion and pressure.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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