Casual december game

[Csargo]

HK have you iso'd Monty?

[hollowkatt]

HK have you iso'd Monty?

not recently no but I'm strongly wondering why someone dumping so much work into the thread isn't dead when renata, who was a potential wagon, is. And I have to answer that with "monty is either dead wrong or is a wolf"

[Csargo]

That's like me asking why you or ender are alive. The two people who are the most anti-aligned to the flipped wolves.

[Csargo]

who the knows tbh

[Csargo]

Sorry I'm just annoyed.

[hollowkatt]

That's like me asking why you or ender are alive. The two people who are the most anti-aligned to the flipped wolves.

It's really not though. Have ender and I done work? yeah. have we done the same level/type of work monty is doing? no, no we haven't.
he's the only one doing deep dives, pulling quotes, writing full thoughts on everyone every day. So why kill renata over him when renata could have been a wagon today.

[hollowkatt]

Sorry I'm just annoyed.

why are you annoyed, what's going on?

[Csargo]

I have no idea how to deal with kage/amy mostly

[Csargo]

It's really not though. Have ender and I done work? yeah. have we done the same level/type of work monty is doing? no, no we haven't.
he's the only one doing deep dives, pulling quotes, writing full thoughts on everyone every day. So why kill renata over him when renata could have been a wagon today.

Yeah, but that's largely centered around ladd/dya associations/interactions, which is over now? Unless monty didn't get through it all I don't remember. Maybe you're just right I have no idea

[Csargo]

Vote:kage

I won't be around tomorrow.

[Montmorency]

not recently no but I'm strongly wondering why someone dumping so much work into the thread isn't dead when renata, who was a potential wagon, is. And I have to answer that with "monty is either dead wrong or is a wolf"

Renata and I both suspect Boq, and IIRC both harbor some suspicion of Amp while generally POEing Kage. Is that incorrect?

Renata was genuinely an unlikely wagon however. Likeliest D5 wagons in order from EOD:

*Kage
*Amy
*Boq
*Csargo
*Monty
*HK
*Renata
*Ender

[Montmorency]

My teams for now (last two unordered):
Taffy-Boq
Taffy-Amp
Boq-Kage
Taffy-Kage

I think Taffy gets lynched today and then I hope I'm dead before LYLO.

I agree with this PoE for the most part.

vote: Taffy

Definitely a take in danger of confbias, but I reserved most of my post-aggression for Taffy, even back into D3, while Renata's posting was oriented more toward pressuring Boq (such as in asking Taffy to vote Boq with her).

Renata on Kage:

Ok that was weird. It wasn't letting me post.

I was trying to write that all else being equal I want to lynch Kage. I haven't done a shred of work overnight however.

At the same time,

Boquise, Monty, Csargo, Taffy, Kage, Hollowkatt, Ender

I have, or have had at some point in the game, fairly confident town reads on everybody here except for Kage.

Wondering if this is almost too disconnected from anything else going on to be mafia. [Re: Kage]

I just don't know.

General leans:

Up to page 40, think that's as far as I'm getting. Impressions so far --

Csargo and Hollowkatt look by far the best and are probably town and should be listened to.

Boquise looks by far the worst.

Amy's in this weird place where their tones in both direction read pure; I just don't like where Dyachei slotted her in one of their reads lists, it's like primo w/w slot (light town with two villagers).

Monty, Kage, Ender, Taffy - nothing remotely indicative of alignment in relation to Dyachei, or literally no interactions at all.

But she might have been the most active midgame player other than me, pound for pound.

I've definitely been hoping to eat it lately. Vulgard I understand, even if his kill disappoints me. But if there is any particular advantage to killing Renata over me, it's hard to discern.

Again with the confbias, but it could be that if I am less aggressive (on paper) against Boq, and Renata more, and Taffy ML costs me clout, then Renata is more immediately dangerous to scum than I am today, even if Boq was supposed to be next on my POE. First half or more of D4 was substantially Renata pressuring Boq, and she did vote Boq before voting Taffy. Also, Boq kept trying to find reasons to TR Renata despite - from their POV - the uinwarranted suspicion and pressure.

[Montmorency]

Renata posts from early D4 that weren't representative of where she was generally but might as well highlight:

Trying to go through Dyachei's iso, distracted by Csargo being wolfy. This is a response to Pizza about Pizza's push on Ender over Ender's Logic case.

"liked", "passive", "wrong", "bad", "fine"

This follows a post about Logic that used "weird" "odd" and "meh" to sum up to a "negative" opinion.

It's the same thing as he did in his case on me the other day, aside from trying to link me to wolf!Ender. Lots and lots of shade (and somewhat contradictory in Ender's case), no commitment. This is why I had Csargo in my PoE early day two.

Anyway, back to Dyachei.

I currently have tinfoil on [Ender] if Csargo flips wolf and you don't die. But probably both of those would have to be true.

Forgive me, I did say it was tinfoil. Still weirded out by Csargo trying to make me out to be scum with you while you were still under suspicion, which doesn't make much sense as a wolf's push if you are town.

The problem with [Csargo] posts on day one? They're kinda trash. They don't really say anything. A mild negative on Logic without any real details (which *fine*, it's day one), and the response to Pizza on Ender says less than nothing too (which is more of a problem because it was a lot of words to say so little).

I had you in PoE on my first day two reads list because of these posts, pretty sure I did write it down. Then by the time I would have gotten round to doing anything about it I thought you were posting much better.

Day three vote was because of your case on me, which again relied *heavily* (aside from the Ender bit) on stuff that's weird, with absolutely nothing said about why "weird" is scummy.

It's not good. It is very very questionable and if you are town and posting like this, please don't.

More representative:

Yeah I think so too.

I got through the first 25 pages which is as much as I'm going to be able to do tonight.

So far I have interactions with (living players only) Csargo, Amy, Boquise, Ender, Monty.

Boquise stands out as the most sketchy, with a light scumread for decent reason that's retracted for a really weak reason. She winds up fourth on his town list after that (second on the "leans town" list, which is Visor, Dyachei, HK, luvs). It feels pretty bad.

Csargo looks great to me on the other hand in a spew sense. Chucks in a (Visor and) dyachei can be yeeted if Logic is town comment referencing one of Dyachei's posts that vaguely references Logic. Then he turns around and makes it clear that at the moment he's reading both Visor and Dyachei as town, and Logic as scum. It's weird in a good way.

Amy's interactions with Dyachei feel pure, with the only real yikes being a dyachei list of light villa reads that includes two dead townies and Amy.

Ender there's very little, one unfocused question from Dyachei to Ender, one response. Null read.

Monty's just a single comment from Dyachei that she didn't even notice he was in the game. Probably null too.

Vote: Boquise for now.

If the clear on Csargo is somehow wrong, the partner is very likely either Amy or Kage (both voting him D4).

If Amy flips red it looks at least somewhat good for Boq, and the converse bad.

Vote: Amp over Kage still my POE, but you're encouraged to ISO both and present a case vis-a-vis anyone you think matters. Please do so within 24 hours.

[Boquise]

I still firmly believe that HK and Ender are town tbh. I will die on this hill.

I still dont think wolves put 3 wolves on a wagon so I still feel like Csargo should be a clear.

I still think ladd handled Kage in an unpartnery way.

I still think Monty is townie. Based on poe, I would have to push him now but thats close to my reason to vote Taffy and that was wrong. So I am not going to push Monty today.

It leaves Amy. But considering the amount of players, I still think that there are 2 wolves. So I am wrong somewhere.

We are at a 5 vs 2 situation if there are two wolves.
Misyeet here and we are 4 vs 2. 3 vs 2 in the next day, as in lylo. Unless I get misyeeted today, I will be alive for the lylo because I am never getting NK'd.

It is the weekend. I have a few chores to do but will read and try to reform my world view tbh

[Boquise]

Also if Amy flips red, then Renata, Monty and Taffy owes me praise tbh

[Boquise]

if monty is town, i think the reason he did not get offed over renata is because a renata kill paints me in a more negative light. I assume that scum's misyeet order has me on the top of the list today tbh

[Boquise]

Actually Monty town clearing Renata yesterday when she could potentially be shaded makes him pretty clearly townie, especially since she was the kill last night (so as a wolf i dont think he would bother trying to pocket her tbh)

[Raskolnikov]

Kagemusha (1): Csargo
Amy (1): Monty

tx Visor for posting the flip.

EOD in 31 hours.

[hollowkatt]

I like boqs posting on this page

[hollowkatt]

Kagemusha (1): Csargo
Amy (1): Monty

tx Visor for posting the flip.

EOD in 31 hours.

you DO exist

[Boquise]

considering a lot of talk yesterday was centred around me, taffy and renata, and me knowing that all those three are town, i assume scum felt comfortable and lazy with the game state.

Vote Ampharos

[Ampharos]

yeah so i left town for holiday stuff and wont be back till after eod

i am going to be literally unable to contribute today sry

wont be offended if i die here

[Boquise]

i just realised

Dya kinda never commented on me pairing them with Amy. Like never.
Only Amy commented on it, being kinda "nah this aint a good reason dya could do this either way" trying to dissuade me from this read.

That does sound partnered tbh. One not wanting to comment because that could create spew (Dya did stop posting when it was clear they were gonna get over so seems to be a part of their modus operandi this game) and Amy kinda panicked about it during the early parts of the game but has then not commented on it. During the early parts of the game, the players took an interest and validated my reasoning - thats scary. But yesterday, I was getting scrutinised and criticised for the pairing (even having players complain that I brought it up a few times (even tho me bringing it up was almost always because someone else asked me)) - that's not scary. That's not a threat.

Maybe I am seeing connections here but I am really feeling it tbh

[Boquise]

yeah so i left town for holiday stuff and wont be back till after eod

i am going to be literally unable to contribute today sry

wont be offended if i die here

i am doing my best to resist having this as a town perspective

[Boquise]

I like boqs posting on this page

Why do you like it?

[Boquise]

@hollowkat could you tell me why i was townie for boxing myself in during like d1/d2?

[hollowkatt]

Why do you like it?

I have to have reasons?

ugh fine

ok, so you lay out a world view that can be held accountable. I don't like that you're defaulting to Amy but I understand how you are getting there. I like how you're concerned that you've mistakenly cleared someone and that you're on the record with wanting to re-evaluate that. If you don't we kill you yeah?

if monty is town, i think the reason he did not get offed over renata is because a renata kill paints me in a more negative light. I assume that scum's misyeet order has me on the top of the list today tbh

This feels like something town says in this situation more often than a wolf does.

Actually Monty town clearing Renata yesterday when she could potentially be shaded makes him pretty clearly townie, especially since she was the kill last night (so as a wolf i dont think he would bother trying to pocket her tbh)

I also like this conclusion

[hollowkatt]

@hollowkat could you tell me why i was townie for boxing myself in during like d1/d2?

yeah sure. it has been my experience that wolves do not like to box themselves into anything that early. Like ok I believe that threads have memory outside of the players in the game and what I mean by that is even if you've moved away from a suspicion on a person, if that person achieved a certain wagon level that suspicion never actually leaves the thread. Obvs the longer the game goes on the more likely it is that players stop bringing it up but say you Boq have a 4 player wagon during the early parts of D1. Later in the game day even if you're sitting on 1 or zero votes it's very easy for the thread to revisit that wagon because it remembers.

So moving further with that line of thinking if you box yourself in early with a specific world view that has far more potential to backfire for a wolf than it does town. Town can post themselves out of a boxed in position better than wolves can because town can genuinely say "wow I was super wrong" and their tone and behavior legit reflect that change of belief, but the wolf is always "lying" there regardless of what the early world view espoused.

[hollowkatt]

I'm confident in my ender read. I also think Boq is town. Monty I think is also town. I'm confident enough in those three that I'm not re-evaluating them today. That's a job for tomorrow HK if I'm alive.

That leaves csargo, amy, and kage. Of those three the easiest wagon is Amy. I want to avoid taking easy wagons unless they're just the right wagon and I still find it hard to believe a team of Ladd/Dya/Amy/X plays the early game the way they did.

Kage is the most enigmatic I think. I know they're sus on me, or were, for several days but other than that I have no idea where they stand.
Csargo is going to be the one with the most thread presence to be reading, but do they pair with ladd and dya in meaningful ways.

We have time, lets use it wisely and get people on the record.
@Csargo @Kagemusha @Ampharos can you provide something in the way of a solve so that we know where you're at? Doesn't need to be super fleshed out, names are fine and I can ask about those names when I get them.

[Montmorency]

yeah so i left town for holiday stuff and wont be back till after eod

i am going to be literally unable to contribute today sry

wont be offended if i die here

Ender, Csargo, HK, please decide between Amp and Kage and give me a consensus of 3 votes between us. I have a few hours left for today. If it's not Amy, then it's either Kage-Boq or Kage-Csargo (Boq-Csargo is a defeat at this point). I've shown reasons to TR Amp and Csargo over the others via association and anti-pair analysis, but you decide.

It sure would be nice to have the ultimate sillypants rand of dya/ladd/amy/kage and wrap it up, but that's always felt fantastical.