Casual december game

[EnderWiggin]

Csargo/Visor maybe clear from that claim.

I'm going to hold onto a "Wolves claiming Mason" but I don't think either were up for votes enough for them to do that there. So clearing them.

Pizza probably clear from the wifom play he's doing. I'm willing to entertain it until he claims midday in about 21.5ish hours.

Renata/Taffy/Amy/Cape are the people I think have towntold in a significant manner. Amy possibly pocketed me but I'm reviewing.

Vulgard is the person I wanna townread but for respect for Luvs I'm going to drop my pre-read and reconsider them.

Kage/Ladd/Dyachei are the grouping I don't really have a read on properly rn.

HK/Monty/Boq are the three names I really want to dig into today because I think a wolf exists in that.

This list is pendingpossiblechanges depending on how I read through things when I have time.

LMAO me.

[hollowkatt]

I mean Amy was spewed town from Kage's failed vote but

Still.

I feel like there were bigger fish that became clear from this.

Why am I still alive, I'm sick and I just wanna die.

Do I have to kill all the mafia for this.

killing all the mafia is generally how we win yes

[EnderWiggin]

Here is what i think after day 1:

Most town


ATGP
Totally Not Taffy
Enderwiggin


town leaning


ladd


neutral


Renata
Visor
Ampharos
Boquise


scum leaning


Csargo


scummy


Monty
dyachei
Vulgard
cape90
Hollowkatt

How i have come to this prediction. I have given points for being leader and building cases, creating pressure. People who are taking leadership from the start can get a pass at being scum for now as if they lead town to failures they are going to get the chop.
Because this was day 1 i have given neutrality points for shitposting and shitvoting. Shooting in the dark day one is completely acceptable and trying to get any reaction from other people is information for the town in the future. From day 2 onward shitvoting and posting should not be looked upon so kindly anymore.
I have given negative points for making non cases, lazy cases and giving follow votes without reasoning. Flip flopping without reasoning.These are the positions most easy for scum to hide and should be frowned upon. Under this i have posts i think are most telling about how i see things as of now:

Town

Totally not Taffy (#142 Push towards Ender to get the case out, pressure, no effect.)
EnderWiggin (#138 push towards Monty for reaction)
ATGP (#204 vote: Ampharos, pressure)
ATGP (#327 case Amphoros)
EnderWiggin (#398 case against Logic)
ladd (#422 case against Logic)
Totally not Taffy (#513 vote Hollowkatt reason disappearing, pressure.
Renata (#812 vote Ampharos, pressure)
ATGP (#862 returns to his vote on Ampharos, consistent)

Neutral

Visor (103# shitvote towards Pizza)
Monty (131# shitvote towards Visor)
Ampharos (#154 shitvote against Logic? No case.)
ATGP (#213 Vote Ender/Bladescape shit vote)
Kagemusha (#226 shitvote towards Csargo)
Csargo (#300 shitvote ATGP)
Kagemusha (#303 shitvote Renata)
Boquise (#449 shitvote Kagemusha)
Visor (#706 shitvote Boquise)
Boquise (#716 shitvote Ampharos)
luvs2spooge (#740 shitvote Vulgard)
Csargo (#744 shitvote Ender)
Visor (#788 shitvote Ampharos)
Totally not Taffy #842 ( 4th follow on Logic, three way tie, pressure.+-0)

Scummy

Hollowkatt (136# "case against Pizza" 4 quotes, nothing from his own mind, easy activity?)
EnderWiggin (#165 1st follow vote on logic."For? Reasons.")
Vulgard (#231 2nd follow vote on logic. No case just vote.)
ladd (#364 3rd follow vote on logic. "seems like an obvious wolf")
visor (#428 4th follow on the Logic vote "fwiw")
Csargo (#530 2nd vote Hollowkatt "I can get behind this" )
Hollowkatt ( #531 vote luv2spooge "also luv2 is a wolf.")
Logic (#536 Vote:Visor "After I flip villager, nuke visor.")
ATGP (#658 unvote personal reasons)
Csargo (#681 2nd follow Kagemusha)
dyachei (#751 second follow Ender)
Renata (#763 5th follow logic)
Logic (#768 third follow Ender)
Monty (#838 1st follow Ampharos)
cape90 (#846 4th follow Ender)
Visor (#853 5th follow Logic)
Renata (#854 6th follow Logic)
Monty (#860 5th follow Ender)
cape90 (#864 7th follow on Logic)

Just making note of this for thinking.

[EnderWiggin]

killing all the mafia is generally how we win yes

I was hoping to just let you all sort out final mafia but anyway.

What's your reads for this day?

[EnderWiggin]

reskimming monty iso mega quick i could also see him being a wolf

kinda weird him/kage have got so little heat considering they'd be the 2 easiest target (no offense)

i liked a couple of minor points from monty but really nothing i care to hang onto when there is so many villagery people

Ladd posting this about 2 wolves unprompted is a bit much imo.

[hollowkatt]

LMAO me.

it's a good post

[hollowkatt]

I was hoping to just let you all sort out final mafia but anyway.

What's your reads for this day?

I'm not considering whether or not you're a wolf if that's what you're trying to ask in a round about way.

I'm still surprised Monty is alive after the heavy lifting he did on D2 and 3. Csargo probably needs some amount of revisiting but wasn't Kage pushing for that re-evaulation yesterday? Might, if true, be spewed town in which case me, you, csargo are town leaving the last one to be within monty/boq.

[hollowkatt]

I was hoping to just let you all sort out final mafia but anyway.

What's your reads for this day?

I think we were all hopeful to let someone else sort it out today.

[hollowkatt]

Ladd posting this about 2 wolves unprompted is a bit much imo.

there's been a bit of a bit much tho

[Montmorency]

First, thanks for carrying yday.

Mafia being real pricks with the kills lately. Why would you ever even kill Amy, she?s perfect lurkbait for storming LYLO with.

No one here seems to believe it?s Boq, whose case I?ve laid out. Certainly though I can?t see him killing Amy solo when clearing her looks so bad for him. But who would really? Not even a wacky deep-sea m-Ender should see advantage to it.

Csargo has had few good posts, and that terrible, terrible case on Renata, while Boq has made a mid-game effort to post well, second after me. However, he has so many hateful associatives with ladd and dya, Patric. How they were all bouncing off each other on Amy and Vulgard, whereas Csargo's few associatives lean heavily anti-pair rather than pair. Either of them could easily be partners with Csargo. If it?s Csargo, he and Kage spent the past two days engaged in Level 1 distancing.

I will have more opportunity tomorrow.

[EnderWiggin]

HK (4): Kagemusha, dya, Renata, Boq
Ender (3), Ladd, Vulgard, Visor
Visor (2): Ender, Taffy
Kagemusha (1): Cape
Vulgard (1): Amy
Boq (1): HK

Tx for the back up pals. (saw it but redacted)

HK kiiiiinda town for this imo.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Boquise

Reasons.

[hollowkatt]

First, thanks for carrying yday.

Mafia being real pricks with the kills lately. Why would you ever even kill Amy, she?s perfect lurkbait for storming LYLO with.

No one here seems to believe it?s Boq, whose case I?ve laid out. Certainly though I can?t see him killing Amy solo when clearing her looks so bad for him. But who would really? Not even a wacky deep-sea m-Ender should see advantage to it.

Csargo has had few good posts, and that terrible, terrible case on Renata, while Boq has made a mid-game effort to post well, second after me. However, he has so many hateful associatives with ladd and dya, Patric. How they were all bouncing off each other on Amy and Vulgard, whereas Csargo's few associatives lean heavily anti-pair rather than pair. Either of them could easily be partners with Csargo. If it?s Csargo, he and Kage spent the past two days engaged in Level 1 distancing.

I will have more opportunity tomorrow.

if I had to take a guess it would be b/c kage voted amy after the deadline passed and raskol closed the day. Like ok timestamp reads or something but Rask posts the vote count at EOD-3 minutes. Calls D5 over at 7:01pm eastern time.
Kage votes Amy at 7:03 eastern. That's enough of a time gap to basically lock the last wolf into killing Amy b/c they can't use her as a chop after that.

[hollowkatt]

HK kiiiiinda town for this imo.

kage and dya wanted me dead from the word go. ladd ignored me basically.

[hollowkatt]

also monty rumbling in with that take cements my thinking that myself, ender, and monty are just town.
it's somewhere between boq and csargo

[Csargo]

I don't think you take me into a lylo situation tbh.

I don't think it's Boq. Don't think it's hk. It's unlikely to be ender.

[Csargo]

Vote:Monty

[EnderWiggin]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

Lemme admire my actual good takes.

[EnderWiggin]

4. Montmorency - old townread i wanna keep
5. Ampharos - :)
9. EnderWiggin - almost certainly not w/ ladd
12. Vulgard - mech clear iirc?
15. Renata - old townread i wanna keep

2. Csargo
3. Hollowkatt.
7. dyachei
13. Boquise
16. Totally not Taffy
17. Kagemusha

3 in there? seems doable

I think Amy was on the money here tbh

[EnderWiggin]

HK twice broke a tie in favour of voting a mafia.

Also had 2 wolves on him on D2 voting him.

HK is my clear buddy. There is no one clearer than he.

[EnderWiggin]

Boq, meanwhile, talked very well but almost always held thread position in favour of the wolves. Csargo/Monty held a much more natural thread position for all the reread I have.

[EnderWiggin]

prolly looking at something like

not touching HK/ender/monty/renata

taffy i think looks ~decent for the dya vote, though not as good as HK

leaves boq/kage/csargo to contain 2? and if i commit to boq/kage being unpaired, then

Vote: Csargo

mafia is so easy(?)

Mfw Amy is just good at the game.

[EnderWiggin]

Upon Ladd's death Boq immediately span into "Amy/Dya paired so both v" and "Ladd wouldn't agree with a Kage push like that if he was w/w!"

And then held that until Dya was 100% going to go over.

Boq then posted this:

interesting that both renata and taffy vote dya at this point (or well taffy doesnt have much choice tbh)..
mmm

(Taffy/Renata were his biggest susses at that point) and then shortly after just naked votes Dya.

Then CONTINUES to push the "Amy/Dya same alignment" schtick.

(Renata notes this:

Interesting (TM) that you undermine your own shade immediately upon saying it, but you still think it's necessary to say.

)

[EnderWiggin]

There is a MILD suspicion on Csargo I have building.

But I think HK/Monty are clear.

I'm taking this to the grave, Boq > Csargo wins.

[hollowkatt]

Upon Ladd's death Boq immediately span into "Amy/Dya paired so both v" and "Ladd wouldn't agree with a Kage push like that if he was w/w!"

And then held that until Dya was 100% going to go over.

Boq then posted this:


(Taffy/Renata were his biggest susses at that point) and then shortly after just naked votes Dya.

Then CONTINUES to push the "Amy/Dya same alignment" schtick.

(Renata notes this:
)

I tried to get to the bottom of that concept from boq, lemme see if I can find that conversation

[hollowkatt]

csargo unlikely wolf due to the wagons. Ender unlikely wolf due to being voted by two wolves 8 minutes until eod.
If Amy wolf, renata and monty are cleared.
If Amy town, renata and monty scum equity rising.
There is a possibility that the whole wagon is town there but I do not think that BOTH Amy's and Logic's wagons are pure.

That means at least 1 of Amy and Taffy is a wolf. There is a chance that wolves commit 2 wolves on 2 wagons, which is I think what happens if Amy is a wolf. But gun to the head my gut says that only the Ender wagon consists of 2 wolves tbh.

If I go with my reads, I think HK is town. I have not decided yet if Kage IS town but I feel like ladd's way to handle my push makes him likely town. That would mean that all wolves are on wagon. We'll see if my thoughts change as I go down the rabbit hole.

This would mean that 1 of Monty/Renata is a wolf
I think both have been townie however so that is annoying tbh

So building on this:
I have previously unpaired Amy and Monty.
And in the post I am quoting, I am unpairing Amy with Renata (tho I know I have to resume reading the last 8 minutes so maybe I should shut up but no tbh).

That means, Amy can only be a wolf with Csargo, Taffy, HK, Kage.
Amy has tried to yeet Kage. Unpaired.

Csargo, Taffy, HK.

I am town reading HK pretty strongly.

Csargo, Taffy.

I think Csargo is town due to ladd and Dya already being on Ender. HOWEVER I can see why wolves would commit 3 wolves on 1 town wagon in hopes to save Amy, but that doesnt fit the timeline of votes (and Amy's wagon rising in votes). It also doesnt fit with occam's razors. Ladd and Dya are competent wolves. Idk who Csargo is, but he seems to be competent as a player. It is better to have at least 1 more wolf on the other town wagon (Logic). Otherwise wolves are boxed in. This makes Csargo also unlikely.

So based on process of elimination, if Amy is a wolf, she can only be with Taffy.
Which would make the wagons Town vs Scum vs Town. With 2 wolves on each town wagon.

Lets see what transpires in the last 8 minutes tbh

@EnderWiggin I'm reminded that this post exists which came about from boq trying to figure out how to pair or unpair people and obvs hindsight is hindsight but it reads entirely like building a world that couldn't exist and the question I'm asking myself is this: could we have determined that this world couldn't exist at the time that this was posted.

Boq spends an extraordinary amount of time talking about everyone but Kage and halfheartedly clears Kage via a single throwaway line about how Ladd wouldn't have done xyz.
I know I had Boq as town the last couple of days but I have more reasons to town read you and monty than I do Boq, maybe more reasons to town read csargo but I can't commit to that at the moment.

for now vote: boq

I'm still looking for that conversation I had with boq regarding ladd/dya/amy

[hollowkatt]

I don't follow how it's a bad look for taffy via wagonomics?
I mean ok, that's a lie I have a theory but I want to hear yours first.

@Boquise I don't remember, did you ever get back to me on this?

[hollowkatt]

tbh it sounds like something a savvy wolf would do if they wanted to look good especially in a lobby where they've already been D1'd by many of the same people before.
I'm not saying you're wrong. I am saying it isn't clearing for me

@EnderWiggin follow this post to where I'm responding to Boq and give me your thoughts if you would

[hollowkatt]

this means ender is town 100%

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

3chars

[hollowkatt]

off to bed @ me with whatever