Motion Detect 15er #2 GAME THREAD

[EnderWiggin]

What did the trick? Mostly asking if I can sheep because my eyes glaze over reading Wisdom's early game.

The whole frustration about the Robyn tunnel and the snipes about it reverberates a lot with my own feelings on the subject. And makes me feel like it comes more from a town getting incorrectly read (again)

[Achro]

The whole frustration about the Robyn tunnel and the snipes about it reverberates a lot with my own feelings on the subject. And makes me feel like it comes more from a town getting incorrectly read (again)

Wouldn't you pull this out though if you were correctly being scum read though? Feels like the obvious card to play in order to immediately take the wind out of Robyn's sails. It certainly worked for me, I went from "okay Robyn is cooking here" to seeing the two day 1 lynches and going, and I mean this literally, "lol" irl.

So to ask another way - you think that response is straight up out of Wisdom's scum range?

[Achro]

you are the third willing to post this (achro, cape, you). the setups nature makes it the back up never carry the kill till he has alive partner. that's about it. Any other deduction is wrong. robyn's result is worth nothing as it stands.

Oh i missed these few replies. Well Robyn took it back so it doesn't matter any more, but generally speaking I will take things like statistical likelyhood into account if my reads are at somewhat comparative strength levels.

So that scan, before Robyn was like 'lol', would have been similar to having a green check in a game with a godfather and thinking 'yeah guess that green check means nothing.'

It's not 100% a clear, but it does make one have to rethink things.

[Vulgard]

Well I am glad I didn't come off too jerky about it at least. Your Boq/Visor point makes me curious, do you have any other unaligned pairs with Boq? How narrow or large is the suspect pool to you if we flip Boq and it's a hit, I suppose is my curiosity here. The Visor/Boq angle is one I can understand for example.

i don't usually think in terms of unaligning people before they flip so nothing else immediately comes to mind but there would presumably be something, just like with wisdom if w

I mentioned Boq, Vulgard and Cape earlier as well and let's see if I can say something about them in ~7min.

Vulgard - I read his Achro being a wolf due to RP case and it felt to me like a "this makes sense for town to say so I'm gonna push it" kind of read. Like someone else pointed out breaking your RP tends to be towny although of course a wolf can use that knowledge to their advantage and Achro's someone who's played enough to use that well. Vulgard's push - wolfy, Achro's RP - NAI.

I've wolf read Achro because he doesn't have any strong pushes, just a lot of words, and I don't trust that. Vulgard is similar in the sense that he has a lot of posts but is just mainly under the radar, in addition to that push being wolfy + I don't know what to make of him not sticking to his guns when I'm wagoned.

Doubt they are wolves together though.

Cape - I found him extremely towny d1 and he just threw out a lot of large posts with solvyness and high WIM and I feel like he's lost that a bit today. This reminded me of how he played in a Syndicate game where he fooled me. I don't have much else on him though, but I don't feel as confident on him being town anymore.

Boquise - Another one that's unusually under the radar. I've been thinking that he's been in a similar position as me though, busy life and plays mafia when circumstances allows. That makes it harder to see if it's towny "not caring" or wolfy awkwardness, but something definitely sticks out. I still lean wolf but again not as confident.

Time's up, bye for now.

i can reference a bazillion of examples from games i was in where what i said about rp and how it seems to have bearing on alignment matches up to what i said

i've been since informed that i might've just had unusual experiences so i dropped that line of reasoning and i think i was just wrong now

[Vulgard]

the reason i'm asking if people have reasons to believe wisdom is town is a similar case to lapras

i'm trying to build some form of consensus because i feel like a lot of people are just throwing reads out there and it's not getting us anywhere

[Vulgard]

the reason i'm not "sticking to my guns" is that i don't think the reason boq gave is enough at this point

i feel like your reads are just omgus wisdom

[Vulgard]

i'm pretty sure i'm about to postcap so i need to stop posting but i'll review people's answers to the wisdom query and i'll try to be here for eod to at least vote someone

[Achro]

the reason i'm asking if people have reasons to believe wisdom is town is a similar case to lapras

i'm trying to build some form of consensus because i feel like a lot of people are just throwing reads out there and it's not getting us anywhere

Speaking of Lapras, did you comment on my big Lapras post? I would have expected you to since you tunneled day 1 so much onto Lapras. If you did and I just forgot you can just point me to the post.

[Achro]

i'm pretty sure i'm about to postcap so i need to stop posting but i'll review people's answers to the wisdom query and i'll try to be here for eod to at least vote someone

You are at 144 for the thread and your post cap for the day according to Nutella's quick math when day started was 175, so you've got plenty of room still.

[EnderWiggin]

Wouldn't you pull this out though if you were correctly being scum read though? Feels like the obvious card to play in order to immediately take the wind out of Robyn's sails. It certainly worked for me, I went from "okay Robyn is cooking here" to seeing the two day 1 lynches and going, and I mean this literally, "lol" irl.

So to ask another way - you think that response is straight up out of Wisdom's scum range?

Completely out of scumrange? Can't be super sure.

And I could pull it out as wolf, but there's a different emotion between being caught and being incorrectly wolfread.

[Achro]

Completely out of scumrange? Can't be super sure.

And I could pull it out as wolf, but there's a different emotion between being caught and being incorrectly wolfread.

Yeah I feel ya, just wondering if Wisdom does what I do and looks themselves in the mirror and goes "I am town, fuck anyone who says otherwise. I am town, fuck anyone who says otherwise."

I do like the boq vote tho. You should find my Lapras post and tell me what you think, it directly relates to wolf Boq worlds.

[Raskolnikov]

Completely out of scumrange? Can't be super sure.

And I could pull it out as wolf, but there's a different emotion between being caught and being incorrectly wolfread.

ie? Can you show me what makes you think Wisdom is a villager incorrectly wolfread here as opposed to the being caught?

[Achro]

Vote: Boq

Going back to this seeing as Robyn was just having a bit of fun with the MD thing, so math is back on my side. Hoo-hah.

Not strictly opposed to Wisdom dying atm, but I've given Boq and Boq worlds more of my brain power this phase and I like my conclusions there.

I am going to go rest, I should be back before deadline.

[Wisdom]

the reason i'm not "sticking to my guns" is that i don't think the reason boq gave is enough at this point

i feel like your reads are just omgus wisdom

I did actually say that's exactly what they are a while ago.
If you're disconnected to a game that's usually the easiest way to start solving.

[Wisdom]

ie? Can you show me what makes you think Wisdom is a villager incorrectly wolfread here as opposed to the being caught?

Can you explain why "Wisdom has loads of experience and chose to play like this as wolf" is the most reasonable conclusion for you?

[Raskolnikov]

Can you explain why "Wisdom has loads of experience and chose to play like this as wolf" is the most reasonable conclusion for you?

I don't think that's what I said?

I am trying to determine if Ender just posted that for kicks or if he can articulate why you are a villager here in his mind.

I just think you had an awkward entrance, few time irl, and a bad rand. Your experience has nothing to do with it.

[Wisdom]

Achro - He's had high WIM and I don't really know to solve him if I don't base my reads on flawed meta. Lean town but very weak.

Boq - Had low WIM but that doesn't really imply anything, and it might even be high WIM but low time in thread. Lean wolf but weak.

Cape90 - Had high WIM d1 and less so today, was very confident on his read on me early on but changed his mind when others started doubting, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't unless other wolf read me so egh that makes him either a wolf or a coward. Null.

dyachei - I've been able to find them quite early based on WIM and how they percieve solving and this time I haven't. That has been a wolf tell before. Boq town reads them, and I don't really understand why because in a w/w situation that seems like a dumb thing to do, if w!Boq and v!Dya that seems plausible, and if v!Boq then I guess he has more experience with Dya to read them better than I do. I wish I had Dunya's solid skill of reading them. I guess lean v if I sheep Boq regardless of his alignment, but kinda wanna lean w because lacking a town read usually implies wolf on slots like them. Am torn. Won't vote right now I guess. (I'm already voting them ain't I lol) Lean wolf.

EnderWiggin - Feels different from last game in which he was wolfing. I didn't catch him then but Syn caught him pretty much instantly and I've seen nothing of the sorts so far, so that strengthens my hunch that Ender is town. Lean town, re-evaluate if Syn is w.

lapras - I still have no read here, sorry. Null.

nutella - To me the most obvious town right now, reads feels genuine and not made to please people, not sure if I can explain it better without a proper ISO. I get why people think we're w/w. I don't get why people wolf read her outside of that. Town.

raskolnikov - Has tunneled me straight since game started and conf biased everything I've said and down. Nothing similar to the wolf-Rask I've both played with and against. Town.

Syn - Similar to Rask but slightly weaker. The tunnel exist similarly to how he caught Ender last game except he's wrong now. Not sure if he'd play like this as wolf, and tunnels are towny in general. Lean tpwn.

Visor - Been changing my mind a lot on him. I don't hate my earlier reason to town read him but compared to most reads he feels like the weakest town read, and for a player of his caliber that might just make him a wolf. I guess null for now.

Vulgard - Not completely sure how to approach him. He's better at reading me than I am at reading him in general, but I have had moments in games where I just find him to be town (once he turned out to be a wolf though) and right now I don't, which gives me similar vibes as Dya. Weak wolf lean.

DEAD

illario - Town read me, not sure why he was wagoned in the first place outside of "Could be w/w with Wisdom" (which is the same kind of dichotomy I've heard a lot today). Should probably look at his reads closer if I get the time.

ladd - Wolf read me, also wolf read Boq. He was killed because he is Ladd and Ladd gets n1'd, even more so because it frames me but I wonder if it frames Boq or if just Boq killed him because he was right?

Robyn - Probably town but has done very little useful for the alignment today.

[Wisdom]

I don't think that's what I said?

I am trying to determine if Ender just posted that for kicks or if he can articulate why you are a villager here in his mind.

I just think you had an awkward entrance, few time irl, and a bad rand. Your experience has nothing to do with it.

You didn't say that, but it's something I believe you should answer.

There's been a lot of trashing of my wolf game this game and it's factually just not true and I believe that if you take my experience in mind you'll probably understand that I would have played this game differently as wolf even despite the time constraints.

[Wisdom]

Like if you're gonna trash me it's probably more correct to say that I suck at playing mafia on phone regardless of alignment. I believe you can see a difference in how I play and post from the last 3 hours compared to the rest of the day, same goes with the last hour I was online D1.

It's something that could be noticed in any game I play really. I usually only play on PC if I have other business here as well, because -sorry- I play mafia to have something fun to think about and to hang out with nice people first hand, and rarely high effort to win if it's not competetive or I'm invested, and I'm far too used to be the top wagon d1 and d2 to start caring before mid game.

[nutella]

The whole frustration about the Robyn tunnel and the snipes about it reverberates a lot with my own feelings on the subject. And makes me feel like it comes more from a town getting incorrectly read (again)

aaahhhh maybe

[dyachei]

@Visor

why are you wolfreading me?

how about explaining just 3 reads you have instead of not doing anything

[dyachei]

ngl kind of tilted that wisdom can't seem to see my WIM this game because d1 i had something happen irl.

I've been much more active today and I feel like I'm showing my process

[nutella]

okay yeah sure

vote: boquise

[dyachei]

feels like im getting punished in a chill game for not being super proactive and present even though I've talked about why i wasnt able to be as present d1

feelsbadman

[Wisdom]

ngl kind of tilted that wisdom can't seem to see my WIM this game because d1 i had something happen irl.

I've been much more active today and I feel like I'm showing my process

Unvote

I never meant to have that vote there for more than 5min, sorry.
I can't offer you a town read but I can at least unvote.

[Wisdom]

Vote: Lapras

Yolo

[Sunbae]

VOTE TALLY AS OF POST #1795

boquise 4 vulgard enderwiggin achro nutella
wisdom 1 raskolnikov
dyachei 1 visor
ender 1 boquise
achro 1 lapras
lapras 1 wisdom
Maj is in effect. With 13 players the magic number is 7.
Night is at 7pm eastern on 3/26/23

[Vulgard]

You are at 144 for the thread and your post cap for the day according to Nutella's quick math when day started was 175, so you've got plenty of room still.

where are you checking this?

Speaking of Lapras, did you comment on my big Lapras post? I would have expected you to since you tunneled day 1 so much onto Lapras. If you did and I just forgot you can just point me to the post.

oh yeah that post

honestly i'm not sure

i see the point you're making but i just don't have an opinion on it

[Vulgard]

VOTE TALLY AS OF POST #1795

boquise 4 vulgard enderwiggin achro nutella
wisdom 1 raskolnikov
dyachei 1 visor
ender 1 boquise
achro 1 lapras
lapras 1 wisdom
Maj is in effect. With 13 players the magic number is 7.
Night is at 7pm eastern on 3/26/23

most wagons are on someone i don't tr
ender "wagon" is a thing i guess
@Boquise actually why are you voting ender

[Boquise]

most wagons are on someone i don't tr
ender "wagon" is a thing i guess
@Boquise actually why are you voting ender

Uh what I thought I was voting myself?