Motion Detect 15er #2 GAME THREAD

[Boquise]

hmmm

Vote: Boquise

lots of people i read village making good points

if this flips v i'm resetting my townreads because the game is likely upside down in some way

lmao

[Boquise]

Vote: Vulgard

Out of the people who have led my wagon, Vulgard is the one who is just rehashing things and hiding behind the other two (Cape and Rask)

[Boquise]

was missing illario there. funny but he was null. I also uncluded dya town there (maybe it's what Cape was talking about) which was prolly just a gut read because I don't recall any other thought regarding this slot outside of the push on illario

now

ladd, illario town

I still think Syn is in his town range. I don't think he can replicate his stubborness about his reads (agressively sussing whoever disagrees with him) he has when he is villaging. Also I think some of his takes were good (at the time they were posted ofc).
Vulgard is a keeper too. dunno, he has been solving full time.

visor/ender/dya I need to revisit because I have prolly cleared them too early. Ender/dya are the main reasons illario was MLed. prolly not ww. (but maybe one in there)

robyn poisoned. (prolly town though)

nutella I think town. Cape/Achro I am liking the posts rn (but maybe that's because they are pushing Boq too. Would need to reread fully toDay if time allows)

Wisdom I am liking more and more too.

So I am left with Lapras who I am not TRing yet, Boq, and Visor/ender/dya?

I think how Rask is bouncing back and forth on his Wisdom read is rand>townie

[Boquise]

Also boq went to bed cuz they were ill

Lololol how often do these wild theories actually worm achro

wait what
i wasnt

it was because it was late

[dyachei]

dont think vulgard/lapras are w/w

[Boquise]

- ive not voted boq
- i dont think boq is wolf yet
- id done no analysis
- i dont think what i said even applies to boq

Why wouldnt you wait till i spewed my analysis?

Anyway its stupid because:
- it relies on me coming up with a wild and apparently easily falsified reason to scum reaad boq
- it relies on me arguing that boq being ill counts as not caring
- it is based ON AN ASSUMPTION of who I'll end up finding scummy based on reads i do
- it relies on town having and taalking only in perfectly logical well thought out suspicions which are inscrutable to logic which definitely fits more how wolves solve
- it discounts this being an actual town theory of mine
...which i know it is. I think the evidence is there in that i was posting my thoughts in a flurry so hadnt actuslly gone back and checked?
- it relies on a type of wolf behaviour that i dont really think happens much where they set up convoluted ways to scum read their buddies

Its basically the most complex theory kf what could happen and there are thousands of other things it could be- whether im town (as i am) or if im wolf (e.g. if i was wolf i could go on to frame soemoen else!!!)

Im typing this whilst getting ready so not proof reading but for your theory to apply:
- i would have failed to check the background information to validate my planned bus
- id be about to bus boq
- boq would have to be wolf
- id have to be a wolf

I know all those things are false.

So yh its just a hair brained theory

I dont know why youd instantly assume that its a wolf theory from me instead of spitballing town? Or wrong town? Like youve not seen my follow up

where did i leave the impression that i was ill?
Like, I did stay home from work last Thursday-Friday but that was because of anxiety attacks and that was also before this game randed iirc?
But yeah I have been low wim through the game
dont think I have said I was ill though?

I am a bit surprised that you dont have much of a read on me since you usually have a take, however my read on you is fairly weak so maybe we are just in sync even when we dont know what we are doing tbh

[Boquise]

leaning town on Boq now

(the fact I understand where he is coming from with his read on me and these last solving posts)

you are now legally bound to inform Vulgard that my read was not coming out from absolute nowhere hmpf tbh!

[dyachei]

i feel like i don't really jive with the thread a lot this game because my reads seem fairly different. after reading lapras iso in more ddetail i dont want to vote there

[Boquise]

maybe i am voting vulgard more out of annoyance than an actual read but i am interested in seeing how he plays around these change of events. Like I immediately felt Rask's reaction to Robyn's joat stuff to be wolfy but maybe thats because i have created a bias, that i am the correct one and everyone else smells tbh

for the record, my town reads:
Wisdom, Dya, Nut, Syn, Robyn, maybe rask, maybe lapras tho feels like he has sidelined a lot even tho he got into fire for standing up for me which makes him a G tbh, cape is also probably town (dont think anyone got back to me about my qualms tho), and fine rask can have town points. I also have thought Vulgard is town but I am annoyed that he is stating things about my play that isnt true and that he could easily fact check.

So maybe I am dropping him down in the bad bois pile. Maybe not.

I have no read on Achro and Visor. Which is a concern.
Achro has posted a lot and has pushed me a lot. We seem to have the same poe? Idk, he is a difficult read for me
Visor's posts have given me nothing.

This is where I am at

[dyachei]

maybe i am voting vulgard more out of annoyance than an actual read but i am interested in seeing how he plays around these change of events. Like I immediately felt Rask's reaction to Robyn's joat stuff to be wolfy but maybe thats because i have created a bias, that i am the correct one and everyone else smells tbh

for the record, my town reads:
Wisdom, Dya, Nut, Syn, Robyn, maybe rask, maybe lapras tho feels like he has sidelined a lot even tho he got into fire for standing up for me which makes him a G tbh, cape is also probably town (dont think anyone got back to me about my qualms tho), and fine rask can have town points. I also have thought Vulgard is town but I am annoyed that he is stating things about my play that isnt true and that he could easily fact check.

So maybe I am dropping him down in the bad bois pile. Maybe not.

I have no read on Achro and Visor. Which is a concern.
Achro has posted a lot and has pushed me a lot. We seem to have the same poe? Idk, he is a difficult read for me
Visor's posts have given me nothing.

This is where I am at

reading vulgard iso right now

dont really like his flip flop on rask all that much and he feels kind of word-salady/overexplainy so far

[dyachei]

i'm not particularly enthusiastic about the wisdom wagon to be honest

---

Vote: Lapras

he's just kinda there, other than his earlier commentary - which i took issue with and explained

accepting reasons to think this is town (asked for them earlier and nobody gave any)

looking at how the thread is progressing just convinces me more that lapras might indeed be a wolf

nobody is talking about him

nobody has told me why he's town after i asked for reasons why he's town twice

all he's done since the earlygame was omgus (this is slightly unfair but i don't remember him doing anything other than questioning my push on him and then voting me)

i'd likely be re-evaluating the early gut feeling i had on him if not for the fact he hasn't given me a reason to do so and the complete lack of willingness to discuss his slot makes me think he's getting overlooked

---

i think nutella's posts are fine and visor's posts are whatever, nutella slight town, visor down to null

---

@ achro i'm not really sure what you're doing this game to be honest, i think the best parts of your posting are the parts where you're pushing me because unlike everyone else you actually have reasons for it but that could be my bias

i probably sound more frustrated than i actually am as i say this

in regard to my treatment of lapras, the read did feel kinda stale but i asked other people for reads on the slot several times and the slot hasn't done anything to alter my opinion in any way so my early gut feeling turned into a vote and now seeing the threadstate go the way that it has i'm suspecting i might just be correct

you alluded to me not questioning lapras or something but there's nothing to question him about, he hasn't really been producing content, he just asked about my read on him and then voted me

there's nothing to work with here

and if he's town i realize that this push on him from me likely isn't helping, but also if he's town then i frankly expect better from him

basically regardless of alignment's he's not exactly being helpful, but couple that with how the thread seems to be treating him and how i had a negative gut feeling about his early-game posting (which is his most substantive posting, also i went back to the post that made me think he's maybe mafia and i still think it's wolfy), i think this is worth pursuing

---

i don't particularly like the push on wisdom, i don't have a strong tr on wisdom but it feels more like a lazy wagon / shot in the dark to me than anything, nobody really gave good reasons other than "this post wolfy" which is technically the same thing as me talking about lapras but fmpov there is a greater number of factors in my lapras read

---

push on boq is... okay i guess but i've no idea how he plays wolf, he kinda just hasn't played the game imo

meh as i was writing this i realized that i'm just singling out lapras based on a gut feeling but i do think it's strange that nobody can formulate a reason for him being town yet he isn't talked about or suspected or anything (unlike wisdom, boquise, nutella until recently...)

these quotes make it possible that wisddom/vul are w/w

[dyachei]

i honestly have no idea how people are getting their reads on wisdom and visor, i don't think either of them has done anything yet other than having a little hands-off back-and-forth that's maaaaaybe not w/w

mind explaining?

this is interesting because vulgard had visor townish then trended him down to null earlier

[Boquise]

reading vulgard iso right now

dont really like his flip flop on rask all that much and he feels kind of word-salady/overexplainy so far

nice tbh

i'm going to play some video games but will return before sleeping

[Raskolnikov]

in my experience, it is wolves that usually react like this because It Is The Proper Townie Reaction, whilst town try to not react at all tbh



Where did you see this/how did you come to this conclusion?

Because of the sheer annoyance robyn displayed in that post.

i am very tempted to out joat purely because they deserve to die for their play

wolves probably know too because it?s breadcrumbed, i am embarrassed that such a player was allowed to play this game

Then Wisdom comes in and do two things in the post I quoted.

- revealed their wolf mindset ("will flip without my help")
- tryed to trigger robyn, blaming the joat.

Fwiw Boq, I posted because I thought robyn was actually capable of outing the joat if annoyed (I am tring them).

[Boquise]

Because of the sheer annoyance robyn displayed in that post.





Then Wisdom comes in and do two things in the post I quoted.

- revealed their wolf mindset ("will flip without my help")
- tryed to trigger robyn, blaming the joat.

Fwiw Boq, I posted because I thought robyn was actually capable of outing the joat if annoyed (I am tring them).

mmmh yeah fair
robyn would probably do that

[dyachei]

reading vulgard's iso, i come away feeling he's being very opportunistic. he came in today asking why boq was even a wagon yesterday, but votes him later because "other people bring up good points". He does the same with wisdom. and while he didnt have me v yesterday, he put me in his poe of 3 with wisdom and boq

vote: vulgard
@Boquise

[Raskolnikov]

wis/cape/vulg is my postgamecred team. But lettuce flip the obvious wolf here

[nutella]

yeah i think wisdom/vulgard/+1 is the primary direction of my solve rn

where cape makes sense as the +1 but im not confident

[Boquise]

reading vulgard's iso, i come away feeling he's being very opportunistic. he came in today asking why boq was even a wagon yesterday, but votes him later because "other people bring up good points". He does the same with wisdom. and while he didnt have me v yesterday, he put me in his poe of 3 with wisdom and boq

vote: vulgard
@Boquise

perhaps i will be a hero of this game still!

[nutella]

we need to pick one wagon though to counter boq and i think it is wisdom today

[Wisdom]

So tl;dr you are yolo voting a null when you have several wolf leans (Boq, Visor, dya, Vulgard).

(I won't get into the way your wolf lean are formed because it's just meta/vibes shrug)

Bur you aren't a wolf. lmao

Correct!
Except Visor's also just null, really.

[Wisdom]

Imagine making sense.

[Boquise]

maybe i am voting vulgard more out of annoyance than an actual read but i am interested in seeing how he plays around these change of events. Like I immediately felt Rask's reaction to Robyn's joat stuff to be wolfy but maybe thats because i have created a bias, that i am the correct one and everyone else smells tbh

for the record, my town reads:
Wisdom, Dya, Nut, Syn, Robyn, maybe rask, maybe lapras tho feels like he has sidelined a lot even tho he got into fire for standing up for me which makes him a G tbh, cape is also probably town (dont think anyone got back to me about my qualms tho), and fine rask can have town points. I also have thought Vulgard is town but I am annoyed that he is stating things about my play that isnt true and that he could easily fact check.

So maybe I am dropping him down in the bad bois pile. Maybe not.

I have no read on Achro and Visor. Which is a concern.
Achro has posted a lot and has pushed me a lot. We seem to have the same poe? Idk, he is a difficult read for me
Visor's posts have given me nothing.

This is where I am at

i literally forgot about ender

[Wisdom]

And Wisdom, don't get me wrong here, but I have wolfed with you (even successfully iirc). Your WIM poppins are totally a thing you do as a wolf.

Correct ^^
I'm gonna laugh when you realize how hard you've confbiased your read on me though :P

[Wisdom]

I saw your post @Wisdom about struggling to read Dya. So this is a good example.
In the last games I have played with Dya, I have pushed them. They were a wolf in one (a game here, last December) and town in the other games.

Whilst Dya as scum try to shut down scum reads on them, imo they also try to be cooperative. The post I am quoting here gives no pardon. "You have me, a villager, in your poe of 3" (therefore robyn's reads, according to dya, are bad). Like, I think as town Dya has an approach/perspective that does not allow them to be inside someone else's poe because "they are town". Idk if I am making myself understandable here.



This post is also an example of Dya not being cooperative.

Like. I am not a good Dya reader. Dya has stated that themselves in the last games we have played and I have misread them, but I think I have learned some tells at least

Hm...

[robyn]

mmmh yeah fair
robyn would probably do that

i've done it before

[Wisdom]

Reason I'm not voting Boq btw is because I have a strong feeling that wolves are just planning to get two townies punted back-to-back (Me and Boq) and that it doesn't matter which order, this is mostly based on how Me+Boq+Illario were wagoned d1, and today the only wagons have been me+Boq.

I have a vibe that wolves are in control and town can't process anything that happens until the townies they are tunneling dies.

Like, even in the best case scenario where me and Boq are w/w (which is not the case, sorry to spoil) there are another two wolves alive, and there's astonishingly little effort trying to find them. Instead me and Boq just get shamed and called wolf for literally whatever we do. Damned if we do etc.

I guess that's another reason I don't wanna vote Boq despite kinda wolf reading him, we're both in the same boat and wolves are the wind.

[Wisdom]

Boq is probably town here for town reading me without doubt in a situation where it's been "him or me" the entire day.
And for looking at other, better options rather than trying to get me yeeted over himself.

Screw my wolf read

Boq town, next

[Wisdom]

@Syn am I correct assuming that you are town reading Ender?

[Wisdom]

we need to pick one wagon though to counter boq and i think it is wisdom today

Or just, you know
None
And let's yeet some wolves instead.