i think cape is a decent probability wolf and my thoughts there exist kinda in parallel to my considerations towards winston
surface level i think the default reaction would be that it looks better for winston if cape was w since this comes across as strong redirection/change of focus, but i also think the people he chose to push are people where he wouldn't really expect to get significant traction, so it's kinda moot and flips back to being eh (the third and in-between option for w!winston would be pushing people who might actually die but are villagers rather than cape, but that doesn't seem like it would be a good option here given the thread's inertia on cape and that that's a bad look if cape does end up flipping)
i agree that if cape's w he's been bussed already, but that's pretty meaningless atp imo
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