Anyway, that being said good morning friends and foes alike.

I don’t really mind dying today if you all can’t gel with my world view, it’ll probably make each side happier and it is just a fun, chill game after all.

Anyway I found the Ladd kill a little odd at first, not that I would tunnel him or anything - that was mostly to reflect back on after the fact and see how people moved around others - but he was undoubtedly the leader yesterday who sent us into the rocks of a Cape kill.

So, why kill Ladd? I think it is either something else he posted, or what he would have thought after reflecting on the fact Cape was town over night. So I’m going to put my Ladd cap on and try to go over the thread a bit before I have to leave, not sure how much I will get done.

Yesterday Taffy didn’t like my insecurity, but that was just me reminding myself that I don’t know a lot of you and to make sure my processes are sound.

Cape(4): ladd, insomnia, ender, katze
insomnia(3): SK, Achro, Cuth
Ender(2): benneh, Winston
Cuth(2): Visor, Taffy
ladd(1): Cape
Sk(1): Dya

Ladd is gone, Cape is gone, and Ender is poisoned. My first thought is this could make insomnia/katze town and the people I am looking for are those that allowed the game state to drift to Cape all day yesterday rather than those that voted him out. A hands off approach, if you will. But I don’t think it’d ever be both Insomnia and Katze with those choice of NK/Poison, although wolves have surprised me before. I say that with… I guess 85% confidence, so some room for error but I think I am right on it.

So in total I need to find 3 scum in 9 names

Katze
Insomnia
SK
Cuth
Benneh
Winston
Visor
Taffy
Dya

And my starting premise is Katze/Insomnia are unlikely to be w/w. Alright then.

My first town core slot is going to Taffy. 95% confidence on this one. For starters, I know personally my ability to perceive intent on who votes me has a stellar track record, I’d give that 90% by itself, but the thread state of poking Taffy a lot over what I thought was an interesting and towny way of voting me brings it up another 5%. I know they are a skilled player, so I leave myself open to being fooled as we haven’t played together before and that’s where my social reads are weakest, but as of this moment I think I’d just lose to Taffy for that play + the thread state around them.

Which that alone now makes my job reading day 1 kind of a lot easier. I now have 5 villagers in my head that I can see how the other 8 suspects interacted with to see who pushed pro-town agenda, who pushed anti-town agenda, who coasted along, and who is unclear even with this.

Cool, that’s a lot of data. But let’s try to add at least 1-2 more likely town to this list to make it even better.

I liked Cuth in general yesterday but soured in real time in EOD, however if Ender is willing to let that go so am I, who am I to OMGUS for another man? So I’ll put Cuth in my town pile.



Quote Originally Posted by nebjiamn View Post
taffy
cape
ender
dya
sk

i don't realy think i'd wanna actually vote dya or sk but they're the bottom of my reads. sk more nullish and dya slightly wolfy

I said this was a town post yesterday. Now I am not so sure in the cold light of day because it might fit into wolf agenda. Keeping Cape as the focus by having them in their list of five, but setting up possible kills on SK/Dya later on. I think this isn’t a post a wolf would typical make if they were paired with either dya or SK, but I say that with about 70% confidence so a lot of room to be wrong, but I’d still be inclined to believe it. Now that I am thinking about it after a night’s sleep I don’t really understand the reasoning behind not pushing someone you think has been slightly wolfy in favor of letting the thread drift to Cape as town. You said SK and dya were at the bottom of your reads and SK was nullish which meant that cape and ender were nullish at worst too, what led you to being OK with voting one of them out but not dya or SK @nebjiamn

(This isn’t loaded I don’t understand)

Dya I warmed back on due to these posts:

Quote Originally Posted by dyachei View Post
cape
benneh
cuth
sk

not in any order
Wolves typically complete assignments as asked, Katze asked for 5 names but said less was ok, and Dya took the opportunity to give less. Not hugely confident, but a note.

Quote Originally Posted by dyachei View Post
i feel like when cuth commented it wasn't very memorable and didn't really move the thread at all. That's why cuth

I felt yesterday this was like me - concerned about moving the thread. There was a lot of dead air around Cape and I am presuming Taffy yesterday, so when Dya had cuth listed because the thread wasn’t being moved I really liked that comment a lot. It felt like a non-obvious mindmeld of concern for the state of things. I didn’t feel pandered to or manipulated, although I don’t know dya’s complete wolf range it is enough for me to slot them into my town pile for now.

Ender (Poisond)
Taffy
Cuth
Dya


Current town pile, leaving me with:

Katze
Insomnia
SK
Benneh
Winston
Visor

3 wolves, 3 villagers. I do not believe Katze/Insomnia are paired.


I paused for a second to wonder what Visor is even talking about, and now my head is back to hurting.

SK probably has wolf equity. I was running strats at EOD and was handwaving people as towny/wolfy to try to see where the chaos led, my town read on SK was pretty weak tbh.

I will leave it here for now as I am overdoing it I think still, but my direction is pretty clear atm. Go through the thread and see how the above six moved around the other 7 players and try to find the 3 most pockety/predatory among them while keeping an eye out for signs of being partnered.

Cool.