Cereal killer mafia

Originally Posted by Jan

I just had an annoying day and there was not a lot of importance to yesterday's actions.

I need ladd to make sure my tinfoil is just tinfoil at one point today.

Wait .. I don't think my tinfoil makes any reasonable sense.

I was afraid for a while Ender could simply be a wolf blacksmith and that would be the wolf power in the game..

But I don't think they would vest visor and shoot him the same night.

Vesting a villa for cred is fine. It is basically the reason he has been allowed to live this long.
(they claimed it d2 because they had enough heat to be in some danger)

But I don't think you use the kp that night on the person you vest just because you want to have a chance of hitting one of your pr reads.


Yeah whatever that is not really a play I see happening.

Originally Posted by Jan

Wait .. I don't think my tinfoil makes any reasonable sense.

I was afraid for a while Ender could simply be a wolf blacksmith and that would be the wolf power in the game..

But I don't think they would vest visor and shoot him the same night.

Vesting a villa for cred is fine. It is basically the reason he has been allowed to live this long.
(they claimed it d2 because they had enough heat to be in some danger)

But I don't think you use the kp that night on the person you vest just because you want to have a chance of hitting one of your pr reads.


Yeah whatever that is not really a play I see happening.

Just this lingering feeling I had ever since taffy died n3 instead of ender and him simply not dying.
But this should be fine.

I’ve considered that tinfoil too and while I do think it’s possible for scum to give a vest and waste it for this argument specifically, I’m having a hard time accepting the possibility that the only town power we have was a one-shot vig and that the healing power was just given to scum. It feels like it removes some of the agency of town to protect itself. If you subscribe to the theory that the doc exists to protect power then it makes sense that he’s just town.

(There is little voice inside my head that is reminding me of the couple mods I’ve played under in the past who’ve specifically done things like this to give scum away to mechanically clear themselves, and the only way to win these games was to forget role info, but those always had more power roles than the bare minimum. And that little voice is also reminding me my reasoning has been hot garbage this game, so maybe I shouldn’t listen, but it feels right.)

Sap, will be more sparse today cause i am back to work


Ya i really really doubt ender is a wolf. Him and visor were both equally cleared atp so killing visor first is ok

Not worth considering

I am gonna be real, ill prob gonna consider everyone today (except ender) so the more villagery you guis can be, the better :p

Cause so far the last wolf has basically been playing an sk game and in these type of games finding the last 1 can be tricky


(I already have an idea but will wait at least 24 hours)

Votal 5.1

Error: Missing string resource "VotesInThreadCounted"

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Huh.

This probably means Sui isn't wolf. Sui as wolf has no loss by killing me and doesn't implicate them and it removes their biggest pusher.

Visor is a better kill for any other wolf who is hoping I'm going to get stuck in my tunnel.

I don't think if Ladd was a wolf the game would play out this way.
I think if Ladd was in wolfchat with nebjiamn/Sleep then sleep would be more active because even on d2 an active Gira can get out of the poe if need be.
It is why I said yesterday that Ladd/Visor are full clearned to me because that applies to both of them to some extend.

Not sure if this reason will help anybody else to get a further read on Ladd.

Originally Posted by EnderWiggin

This probably means Sui isn't wolf. Sui as wolf has no loss by killing me and doesn't implicate them and it removes their biggest pusher.

Visor is a better kill for any other wolf who is hoping I'm going to get stuck in my tunnel.

Level 1 yes.

I don't think I would leave you alive either tbh, because I don't really know you and I know visor and when given the choice I keep the person around that I can make fun off.
But I am weird and old and care less about winning than well-being.

I won't be considering Ender (like never).

v

Ladd

Suibian/Jan

w

I think Ladd has been more villagery and solving than Jan and Suibian. I will start rereading these slots first. (also Sleep's post mentionning them)

Originally Posted by EnderWiggin

This probably means Sui isn't wolf. Sui as wolf has no loss by killing me and doesn't implicate them and it removes their biggest pusher.

Visor is a better kill for any other wolf who is hoping I'm going to get stuck in my tunnel.

tbh I think Visor could have had reasons to go after Sui (or me ) after Cape's flip (remember his D3) so I agree with Jan here, don't remove her from the POE for that kind of reason. (well do it if u wanna, but u have been warned :p )

Originally Posted by Sleep

what are you seeing with syn that i'm not

tammy hates wolfing and everytime i've seen jan draw wolf in a mash he's phoned it in. obviously vastly different game environments but for someone who has been semi-retired for a long time he seemed eager to get into the thick of it in a way that is way more likely town

This is the only mention of Jan in Sleep's ISO fwiw.


There are a lot of back n forth with Suibian which don't feel ww to me but I'd like to be second guessed about this.


(conclusion: with the way this game has played out, I do think this makes it more likely for Jan to be the last scum over Suibian)

Ladd/Sleep:

3 posts mentionning Ladd in Sleep's ISO.

Originally Posted by Sleep

ladd basically feels like himself i don't think anything he's posted is super alignment indicative so far

Originally Posted by Sleep

my memory of tammy as mafia was mostly her rolling over and dying but this was over a decade ago now (i will never stop trolling her about this)

don't think she'd be the type to bus but hard to defend a person who barely posted anything. i have played with her more recently than anyone here and think she's just town though



if someone bussed i'm not gonna be able to find them today and every time i try to do something like that it ends up being a throw


vote: ender

sheeping ladd tbh

I do think this one is a good one for Ladd. Because it feels like Sleep actually forgot he had not mentionned Ladd previously so is TMIing Ladd's alignment. (like I feel he would be more cautious for a read about a partner).

Originally Posted by Sleep

-kind of concerned by cape initially townreading me then angling toward potentially voting me when i've been absent and laddsuggests me as a ossibility

- i think ladd's POE in #455 is basically fine tbh and where i was at, I have a slight concern over cape but that's only a 5th name anyway and i think this game is probably just an easy one for town hopefully

-wisdom's progression still not doing much for me altho i'm not sure what wisdom COULD post at this point that would make me townread her. i get why people backed off but it kind of reads like generic emotional appeal stuff which feels a little scummy

- don't have real thoughts on rask's most recwent pots right now, need to re-look at them later because everything is blurring together in my head at this point


unfortunately my schedule is also not great for this game and i have only a couple more hours i can be here, then i'm gone and won't be present for EOD. will try to get in what i can in that time if anyone has stuff they want to ask me do it now

this line from sleep about ladd's POE makes me double-down on Ender because Sleep was prolly aware at this point in the game that one wolf had to go deep because he wasn't end-gaming himself. So I don't see him +1ing a list with all the alive wolves POEed

tl;dr: Sleep's spews makes me think it's just Jan.

Now I am actually wondering at which point in this game Sleep gave up. ie at which point he just played with spew in mind to actually mess up late solving. Prolly SOD2?

hmm

l8r for another go at Jan's or Sui's ISO.

---

Visor damn you btw. I have been coming back to the context of that el Barto vote from Suibian lately and I just don't think she would bus like that. It's not even done in a way she can claim cred out of it and clear herself. It just felt unnecesarry to me. though I am still considering it because u did lol.


actually I will just reread D1 because it feels to me that bus of el mighty Takhisis (el barto) and the context around it is the key.

will be considering elbarto and sleep treatment in my next ISOs too, just so many things to do rn lmao. and that baobab in my hand.

i'll post in ~24 hours

Originally Posted by Jan

I don't think if Ladd was a wolf the game would play out this way.
I think if Ladd was in wolfchat with nebjiamn/Sleep then sleep would be more active because even on d2 an active Gira can get out of the poe if need be.
It is why I said yesterday that Ladd/Visor are full clearned to me because that applies to both of them to some extend.

Not sure if this reason will help anybody else to get a further read on Ladd.

Hrm. Ladd is actually the person whose read I want to revisit the most.

I don’t really agree with the reasoning here though because if gira was just busy and couldn’t play then he wouldn’t be able to be more active regardless of his partners. I think it’s dangerous to say that he would be more busy if he just couldn’t be more busy. Is there something other than that that you think is clearing?

My thought is that his lack of vote on day two suggests that he was fine with the game state as is which would mean that his partner was not in the poe. I really want to clear Rask on this alone, but I don’t know if this is also dangerous if he’d just given up, but I also think it’d be somewhat cruel to do to your partner, unless your partner had also just given up, but Rask clearly hadn’t, so I want to believe in this. I just don’t know how much weight I should actually give it.

I guess there is the possibility that gira didn’t vote day two specifically for the wifom argument that if Rask had been elimmed that day he clearly couldn’t be partners since he did nothing to save him or get credit for the bus, but does that actually get him to endgame?

(I’m remembering a time that I had a partner do something similar to me, but he never posted or played at my homesite (rip) again. So it’s not impossible, but I think he was just intimidated and scared which I do not think fits gira.).

Anyway, I just don’t think it’s Jan.

For completion’s sake the only thing that I had a moment of pause with regard to Jan was the post talking about the hypothetical Lylo situation of me, Jan, Ladd. But that post can equally come from town trying to settle a read on Ladd, and there are so many other things that read town to me like trolling visor about the night one kill, the reaction today to cape’s tunnel last night, etc and overall play that I would be super surprised and a little heartbroken if Jan is scum here.

For people to lock me in some specific behavior that I don't think happens if I am a wolf.

If I am a wolf that plans to bus e l barto then I will try to get my partner on board unless you think it was a total accident.
Just no reason not to maximize on towncred for your team.


Even more important this does not happen if my play as a wolf is to bus my partners for cred:
EoD 3:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Originally Posted by Jan

On the one hand cape is doing weird busywork right now.

Like judging visors villa read on ender after ender softed to visor that he gave him the vest.

On the other hand I want to resolve sleep.

Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

like why? I agree with this read fwiw, I think Cape is getting more heat than he has never had this game and is increasing the workload as a response, but not in a towny way (because he goes back to mostly unrelevant things now). So why not just yeet a wolf toDay, and resolve sleep l8r (whom I am having an hard time thinking this is his scum game, + Suibian's posts etc..)

followed by me voting cape and leaving for the night.

Rask convinces me to vote cape instead of sleep at the time.
If I am a wolf and the poe for the next two days is always my partner and a random villa stuck in the poe then I am just sticking on my partner if given the choice.
There is simply no upside as a wolf to switch to cape.

(the counterargument is me making this statement as wolf to get cred for not bussing earlier, I guess. Not sure what the upside in that play is)

Originally Posted by Suibian

Hrm. Ladd is actually the person whose read I want to revisit the most.

I don’t really agree with the reasoning here though because if gira was just busy and couldn’t play then he wouldn’t be able to be more active regardless of his partners. I think it’s dangerous to say that he would be more busy if he just couldn’t be more busy. Is there something other than that that you think is clearing?

My thought is that his lack of vote on day two suggests that he was fine with the game state as is which would mean that his partner was not in the poe. I really want to clear Rask on this alone, but I don’t know if this is also dangerous if he’d just given up, but I also think it’d be somewhat cruel to do to your partner, unless your partner had also just given up, but Rask clearly hadn’t, so I want to believe in this. I just don’t know how much weight I should actually give it.

I am fairly certain that I will not be able to clear rask this game.
Jut because of syn having rask as lowest read all game and just not getting the traction for the kill.

Plus me really disliking rasks eod leading up to the sleep lunch (at the following sod).
I just can see a lot of reasons for this to be wolf motivated.

Rask was in the poe at the time, trying to get people to vote cape which tied up wagons.
He tried to snipe the sleep vote despite the whole day being rask vs cape.
And then playing up the sleep flip as a big party on the next day when there was no kill that mattered less this game.

And I am sorry if you are a villa rask, but that to me feels like a wolf trying to maximize on the switch on sleep.
If it is a runaway wagon you don't get any cred, but making the wagon close and knowing how Ender (and others) love meming/podracing might give you more cred. Which is what your next SoD felt like to me.

I just don't think as a villa in a tunnel you really swap when you did. you either get convinced earlier or not at all.

I'll be honest.

I have trouble not tunneling rask at the moment and if I am wrong then I am just clueless and I don't feel capable of looking anywhere else right now.

Sun’s absolute certainty that Rask was scum is one of the things that keeps me from going all in on my day two “why wouldn’t gira vote if Rask was scum” theory.

Ill address your points in like ten hours friendos.

(No energy rn and this deserves more than oneliners)

Ps: not sure u should put much stock into Syn wolfreading me because like, it happens a lot, when I am town. (Can provide exemples too)

Anyway Ill try to post before Ladd and Ender check in so they have the input too

Leaning towards Ladd.

Originally Posted by Suibian

Leaning towards Ladd.

I wasnt gonna post until closer to eod to give you guis space to post but like...how?

How do you think i am a wolf here, it seems absolutely absurd to me lol

So plz show me its a real thought and not something you just made up.

Did you read my posts? Cause i have an hard time thinking you read my posts and think i am a wolf

Originally Posted by ladd

I wasnt gonna post until closer to eod to give you guis space to post but like...how?

How do you think i am a wolf here, it seems absolutely absurd to me lol

So plz show me its a real thought and not something you just made up.

Did you read my posts? Cause i have an hard time thinking you read my posts and think i am a wolf

I could tell you the why because it is really obvious. :P

Originally Posted by Suibian

Hrm. Ladd is actually the person whose read I want to revisit the most.

I don’t really agree with the reasoning here though because if gira was just busy and couldn’t play then he wouldn’t be able to be more active regardless of his partners. I think it’s dangerous to say that he would be more busy if he just couldn’t be more busy. Is there something other than that that you think is clearing?

My thought is that his lack of vote on day two suggests that he was fine with the game state as is which would mean that his partner was not in the poe. I really want to clear Rask on this alone, but I don’t know if this is also dangerous if he’d just given up, but I also think it’d be somewhat cruel to do to your partner, unless your partner had also just given up, but Rask clearly hadn’t, so I want to believe in this. I just don’t know how much weight I should actually give it.

When did you first have this thought?