Originally Posted by
Hally
i apologize in advance for the monster of a post you are all hopefully about to read. i’m starting off with dya’s treatment of the wolves because it’s the easiest thing to cover and then i’ll move on to dya’s pushes/progressions and stuff.
look upon my works ye mighty and despair (i am the one despairing)
overview of how dya has treated the wolves
syn
this is the only post where dya talks about syn:
me, zack, gh, etc all felt similarly to dya here so i don’t particularly care about this, just including for completeness sake
they also say this:
(the top part is about arctic, who they wanted to kill all of D1)
what did murska do that would make him a better vote than syn? i don’t know why dya would vote murska, they didn’t wolf read them in any of their posts so i assume it was because they just didn’t want to vote syn that much?
visor
D1, dya lightly town reads visor here:
i don’t understand why this would be enough to lean town on visor but it was D1 and it’s a light read so w/e
D2, dya first lightly pushes back on the visor sus in these two posts:
but then more people come in hot for visor and dya drops him down:
they leave their options open but do ultimately maintain their sus on visor for the rest of the day, though they don’t really push it much and focus more on gh/logic/arctic (i can understand this because visor was not posting so there wasn’t much new to say)
to dya’s credit, if they are a villager they reevaluated correctly but overall this seems easily in bus range
dya also tells people not to kill benneh EoD2 and stay the course on visor. probably their most pro-town moment of the game. the reason i’m not giving cred for it is because they were already town reading benneh and sussing visor, so while they say they could easily have reversed those reads and voted benneh, i think that’s just… not true and w!dya would know that doing so there would be outing. there’s just no way they get away with that, and if dya is a wolf they already knew by EoD2 that they were the one that had to carry so it’s far too much of a gamble when it was far from a guarantee they could get bennen to go over there.
gemma
D1, dya responds to gh asking them about gemma here:
then EoD1, after murska claims PR, dya votes gemma:
like i said before, this is a good look if only because wolves would def prefer gemma alive over syn. gemma was at least posting stuff whereas syn wasn’t really playing the game, so it would be pretty easy to just bus syn (though i think dya voting syn EoD1 would get them pretty much no cred tbh)
the reason i’m not giving cred for the gemma vote here is because:
1) i think the lunch was always going to be syn or logic after murska claimed (and probably before that too)
2) i actually think it’s better for the wolves to not pile on syn because they want logic to stay close and hope he goes over instead, not make syn a runaway esp when, again, later votes on syn got people basically zero cred as we saw
3) dya does literally nothing to get gemma killed besides naked voting them. they don’t express a wolf read on gemma anywhere or tell other people to vote them.
okay, now here is where it gets really funky: dya claims today that they voted gemma D1 because they wolf read them, but there’s like… no evidence that this wolf read existed lol
on D2, dya has gemma at null despite gemma making no posts between dya voting them and this reads list:
arctic even asks dya right after if they still think gemma is a wolf/why they voted them at EoD:
and dya doesn’t mention wolf reading gemma at all, they just say they didn’t want murska or syn
so like ??? i don’t know if dya is just misremembering why they voted gemma or they actually did wolf read gemma and just never spoke a word about it ever or they are lying today to look better ???
they don’t really talk about gemma again until D4 after people start squinting at them
tl;dr -
my conclusion from all of this is that dya has not meaningfully pushed any wolves this game. their treatment of all three flipped wolves feels easily in w/w range (or straight up doesn’t make sense in gemma’s case), in contrast to everyone else (besides vanta ig) who has pushed wolves in ways i think are at least somewhat unaligning. the wolf they pushed the most is visor i guess? but even him they barely pushed and mostly were riding the momentum of the thread afaict. they also were never pushed or spewed in any way by any of the wolves that i can see.
this concerns me particularly for dya because they are a top tier villager imo. there’s very few people i would put above them. and no offense to the wolves this game but like… none of them were hard to catch at all lol. but all of dya’s hardest/original pushes have been on villagers afaict so i don’t really know what’s going on with them this game if they’re a villager.
all that said, the above isn’t really why i think they’re a wolf. villagers can have off games and be wrong, even very good ones.
—————
the real reason dya is (maybe) a wolf
to put it bluntly, the way dya is making reads this game feels fake/agenda’d to me at several points. i don’t really buy their solving is coming from a real place, it feels more like they’re posting with a certain agenda in mind. i don’t know how to illustrate what i mean without going through a bunch of their progressions and reads so that’s what i’m doing.
disclaimer that this is NOT meant to be an exhaustive overview of everything dya has posted this game, i’m more so trying to isolate specific examples to illustrate my point. you can call it cherrypicking if you want but i actually think i have actually cited all of dya’s main pushes this game unless i missed something.
dya’s treatment of logic/gh
ok, so dya starts out town reading gh for not trying to do anything:
i believe dya believes this is gh’s meta regardless of their alignment
where it gets wonky is when logic comes into play after gh town reads him:
i’m just going to quote myself from D1 explaining my issue with this:
i want to emphasize that in response to people questioning their reads on logic and gh, dya doubled down HARD and insisted their meta read on gh was valid and they were correct to sponge gh’s read on logic and not zack’s. these were not reads dya made lightly, they repped that they believed gh/logic were v/v strongly and would not entertain anyone else saying otherwise D1. i’m not going to quote all those posts but you can go look.
okay, now onto D2, here is dya’s first post:
wtf lol. everything they posted last day about thinking gh was a villager who could never be wrong that logic was also a villager is completely gone. vanished like it never even existed. logic is now almost assuredly a wolf. here’s dya’s reasoning for the 180:
this reasoning is like… wack to me. i do think wagonomics stuff was a valid thing to factor in, it was part of my read on logic too. but the difference is i had a preexisting strong wolf read on logic off his posting D1, whereas dya obviously didn’t. also, dya is experienced enough to know that it’s extremely dicey to make stuff like wagonomics the main crux of a read because without knowing who the wolves are you shouldn’t expect they will actually play optimally. sometimes wolf teams are inactive or disorganized or just shit the bed especially because this isn’t a mash where there’s a huge wolf team that can coordinate their votes, it’s just 4 people.
dya also did not care about zack’s read on logic D1 at all and completely relied on gh’s town read so i don’t know why zack dying would completely change things. but look at this:
???
so D1, dya’s logic read was completely sponged from gh who they thought was a villager that could never be wrong. but then D2, based solely off wagonomics and zack dying, now logic is “almost assuredly” a wolf and gh is probably too. what happened to dya’s town read on gh that they fought everyone over D1? now instead of getting logic’s alignment via gh they’re getting gh’s alignment via logic.
i just don’t believe this progression. i could understand if wagonomics + zack dying is reason for dya to question their read on logic and gh, that would be fine. but to go from “glad i don’t have to worry about reading logic this game because gh town read him and i town read gh” to “logic is almost assuredly a wolf and gh is probably a wolf for town reading him” JUST based on that stuff and not anything to do with logic or gh’s actual posts in the game is wack. it feels so agenda’d. i don’t understand how these posts can organically come from someone who had dya’s reads D1.
like, look at this post:
first of all, “i'd like to now why you think visor is a villager considering everyone else this morning is ready to elim him” feels really disingenuous given dya didn’t even think visor was wolfy themself, they were just sponging the thread so like ??? why are they implying it’s bad for logic to also not think visor is wolfy.
second, what does the bolded mean? so dya actually does still think gh is a villager on posting, except he’s actually a wolf now because he’s not wolf reading logic, except v!gh not wolf reading logic should make dya also not wolf read logic if they believe gh has a god read, but logic is their top wolf read anyway. ??? the math is not mathing.
then dya maintains wolf reads on logic/gh the rest of the game and notably doesn’t reevaluate on logic at all after gh flips v despite gh still not thinking logic was a wolf when he died. i acknowledge gh was no longer confident logic was town at that point but he clearly didn’t wolf read logic either so like, no reevaluation at all?
i will note late D4 dya does say they are getting cold feet on logic:
and then logic made what, imo, were some villagery posts and self voted, which i would think would make dya even more hesitant to kill him if they were already getting cold feet? but they have zero reaction to any of it and just vote logic anyway:
and it’s not like they were town reading the counterwagon wisdom at the time, they thought wisdom was a wolf, but they still just killed logic. ok lol.
when i read this entire progression it looks to me like dya initially thought people would care about gh’s logic read more than we did so they just went with it D1, then when people didn’t actually care about it and they realized they needed to get logic mislunched to win, they completely changed tracks and rode that train until he was dead (and killed gh along the way). important to note again that from what i saw their wolf read on logic, which was their main push/focus the majority of the game, was really always about wagonomics and how visor treated logic. i don’t recall them actually explaining why logic was a wolf from his posts (entirely possible i missed it though) which is concerning because as a wolf, pushing villagers off stuff like spew and wagonomics and how wolves treated them is easy. actively fighting through TMI to explain why a person you know is a villager isn’t one is what’s hard. and i think dya’s push on logic leaned way too much into the latter, in contrast to me/benneh/ladd/zack who wolf read logic primarily on his actual posts and only used other stuff to bolster it.
dya’s treatment of ender
for most of the game, dya’s read on ender was basically “i think he’s wolfy but i always think that.” i didn’t see an attempt to move beyond that until D4, when we get this sequence that made me start squinting at dya again:
i already talked about this read when dya posted it but like, this read feels so fake lol. i legit don’t understand how dya could genuinely believe this if they are a villager. they are using a joke ender made with like two minutes left to EoD when syn had a massive wagon and trying to stretch it into an argument that ender is actually wolfy because him making a pun subtly reveals that he didn’t like the syn wagon even though he made no attempt to push back on the wagon at any point. ????????? wtf is this read i cannot get over it. it just feels like a wolf who zero’d in on the next villager in the PoE that they could paint as wolfy. but they don’t actually make a read on ender’s posts outside of “look he defended wolves, that’s bad” or consider why a wolf would take a refuge in audacity approach and make themselves look terrible for no reason.
dya’s wisdom push
this wolf read was primarily based on a spew read that i think is like… very dubious:
i’ve spoken about it already so not gonna go over it again in detail but basically, i don’t think that the post where visor talked about wisdom and the one where he talked syn are actually similar. the intent of them seems clearly different. with syn, visor was pushing an agenda—get people off syn and onto murska. with wisdom there was no agenda, it was just “im not reading them lol.” when i pointed this out to dya they said visor’s agenda with the wisdom post was just to not give a read on a teammate but that’s not really an agenda? and visor is obviously capable of giving reads on teammates so.
but anyway, i don’t really care about this read because dya has reevaluated today and is now town reading wisdom. the reason i point it out is because it’s another instance of an original wolf read by dya that’s based not on actual posting but on spew, which again, super easy for a wolf to do.
poor wittle arcy
dya’s other main/original read that i didn’t touch on yet was their push on arctic D1/D2, which was essentially an OMGUS in response to arctic wolf reading them D1 that was dressed up with dya not thinking arctic would be so confidently incorrect on them. i think it’s well within dya’s town range to OMGUS but it’s also like the easiest way to push someone as a wolf and generate villagery looking interactions by basically getting into a fight over a wolf read on you. what’s weird to me about this one was dya saying that they haven’t played that much with arctic, so they thought it was wolfy that he was confident they were a wolf, but i feel like someone who doesn’t know you that well is more likely to be have misplaced confidence about reading you not less likely? and they are more likely to misread you not less. so i don’t really get the standard dya was holding arctic to in order to push him so hard over his read on them.
—————
ok now what
okay, that’s everything i wanted to talk about i think. i think i did a decent job covering dya’s body of work but it’s very possible i missed important stuff. at first i literally just skimmed every page of the thread looking for dya’s posts because search function wouldn’t show me all of them and messed up the order but somewhere along the way i got lazier and might not have seen everything, and then i gave up staring last day and today because that stuff is fresher for people anyway.
i hope i explained everything clearly enough. the main things i would hope people read are the treatment of wolves sections (especially gemma)?and the section about gh/logic. the gh/logic stuff in particular is really where it clicked for me and i feel like i see a very clear agenda in dya’s posts so please read that if nothing else.
i want to stress that this is not a lock wolf read on dya. i think dya has posted extremely well if they are a wolf this game. it would definitely be one of the better wolf games i can recall from them. i don’t want this post to be taken as me having absolutely no doubt dya is a wolf and demanding that you lunch them right now. despite how this post may sound at points, i do have doubt. i will always have doubts. i honestly debated not even going through this because i don’t want the thread to become just me and dya fighting when i’m not like actually certain and nobody else agrees with me which makes me feel like i could be completely dumb and overcomplicating things when it’s actually the easy answer in vanta and i’m being a moron. i’m even debating not posting it now even after i just wrote the entire thing and saving it to post in postgame if dya ends up being the wolf so i can say how i knew, but i will hugely regret not actually laying this stuff out if it does actually end up being dya and i let them get away so here you go lol.
oh my god i have been working on this post for 5 hours (casual game btw)
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