Tarot Mafia

[Dolby]

Bullet points, wisdom has:

* OMGUS pushed back against bop d1
* OMGUS pushed ladd, and also not actually engaged ladd critically with that. she asked him exactly 0 questions for his reasonings when he sussed her.
* pushed extremely widely townread player didistetter
* pushed extremely widely townread player grr

Sometimes villas have an offgame and have very out of field takes but this an extremely inaccurate gameview and also very plausible to be a way to reduce spew to a minimum (mostly sus people where it doesnt generate additional info for town when you flip wolf). Also dead villas all had her in the bottom of their reads. she was also a CW to ladd.

It's just where I'm at you don't have to agree. Cya later.

here's another thing

I think there's a world where Wisdom's scumreads this game have 0 wolves

D2 they have me/Gemma/Vanta. I know I'm town, I think Gemma is town. I think that Vanta's EOD is kinda unpairred from Benneh in the sense of why do that as a wolf and I think that they were a villager setting up for that switch in the last hour tbh (wheras Benneh's was pure opportunism)

EOD3 they have Vanta, ladd, gemma, and maple. Don't need to write anything more on this except for maple, and it's just I think Jan got the card (also think in retro them getting on Maple was opportunistic but at the same time was a bit disconnected from the thread which is a good look). Jan also claimed that Maple would be cut off from wolf chat so I think that Maple is bringing Jan's real thoughts to the thread which is a town point.

During d3 they were also pushing Monte a bit and tbh I think Monte does look a good amount worse now but I don't think Im going for him today

[Sunbae]

so let me ask you sunbae. why did you go for a meaningless 1 naked vote wagon on benneh when you have been town casing ladd, instead of you know actually helping ladd and voting the player that ladd was convinced was mafia.

because unironically some of your posts (like this one) read to me like u are wolfcasing yourself.

because i was specifically and directly told that we were killing wisdom and jailing maple, that i was not needed for the day, and to go rest up?

and then i voted my best wolf read on the way out?

like come on you have to be actively attempting to twist things around to try and wolf read me if this is where youre at

[grr]

Bullet points, wisdom has:

* OMGUS pushed back against bop d1
* OMGUS pushed ladd, and also not actually engaged ladd critically with that. she asked him exactly 0 questions for his reasonings when he sussed her.
* pushed extremely widely townread player didistetter
* pushed extremely widely townread player grr

Sometimes villas have an offgame and have very out of field takes but this an extremely inaccurate gameview and also very plausible to be a way to reduce spew to a minimum (mostly sus people where it doesnt generate additional info for town when you flip wolf). Also dead villas all had her in the bottom of their reads. she was also a CW to ladd.

It's just where I'm at you don't have to agree. Cya later.

Oh also I forgot about another point, so imma do that quickly: She pushed gemma who she said would clear her in #2850

This is another safe push in the "ok this player is in a difference check with me anyway so I can call them a wolf safely" category. ok gone again.

[insomnia]

tbh I can fully believe that Jan didn't exe Maple. When Jan was saying he was gonna jail Maple my internal thought process at the time were basically "he isn't gonna exe him if he gets a card". Especially plausible given ladd flipped green

but I'm not gonna harp on it to hard unless maple becomes a wagon

jan explicitly said he'd exe him

[Sunbae]

So I spent the night thinking about it and I think I have to operate under the assumption that it's possible Benneh didn't know the wolves after the lost wolf goon signal. Not necessarily certain, but it also explains a bit why he'd basically be spinning wheels in the middle ground and keeping a relatively low profile without pushing anyone overly hard. Which means I don't want to give any villager points from Benneh spew to people.

which is fine, we can just ignore the bullshit and just focus on people posting woofy to solve.

I do still think the wolves certainly knew benneh in this case after the signal so I do want to still read into spew in that direction.

[Sunbae]

Players Votes

Raskolnikov 3 (grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan)
Theknightsofneeee 3 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov, Didistetter)
Gemma 2 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Syn 3 (insomnia, Newcomb, Gemma)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)

EOD1 late:

I've been rereading Insomnia and want to shore up that read a bit.

I floated the idea last game day of Insom's eod1 making sense in a Insom/Gemma/Benneh/Syn world. With Insom shading Ladd for pushing Gemma, shading Knights over Gemma because "knights wants to live more", and then hopping on Syn without reading posts. However, I do not think this the case anymore despite the Benneh flip. In this world now, Insomnia would have to be pretty much bussing the entire team. I say this because if I rewind back to a bit before eod1 Insomnia WAS voting Gemma (it even sparks a discussion with Ladd about "spooky votes on Gemma"), then voted Syn, and now I know he opens up day 2 by voting Benneh. So in this scenario, Insomnia would need to be bussing the entire team yet not be leveraging it into killing any villagers or getting the obvious credit (hadn't read any of syns posts, etc, says "voting people you dont remember anything of" when voting benneh).

I also note that killed villagers had Insom as a strong villager too.

I look at this vote count from when Insom voted Syn and there are plenty of opportunities to vote a villager and instead he lands on Syn in a "haven't read their posts lmao" way.

So I think Insom is just a villager?

[Sunbae]

I have one post after this i think, maybe 2 but definitely 1.

Claims in order of townyness from my PoV

Rasko- vig who killed sheep
Jan- PR
ender-something that targetted stet
wisdom-firefighter
maple-self PGO?



vvvv(o wolves)
Rasko

vvv(0-1 wolves)
stet
insomnia


vv(0-1 wolf)
dya
grr

v(1-2 wolves)
arctic
jan
vanta
gemma
knights

/shrug(1-3 wolves)
ladd
mont
dolby
maple
sunbae
benneh

w(0-2 wolves)
ender
wisdom

WRT maple- i didnt read his last couple posts before my last post so i didnt realize he PGO himself. I dont know how that is self resolving, but fuck it we can give it a day

I was looking at the wagons from eod 1 and there is a point where its

I feel like gemma/knights fell into the tonal abyss today after getting a pass from the majority of the thread; not feeling great about that. If ender is a wolf i wouldnt worry about knights. If ender is a villa then that opens up the world where knights is a wolf PR better than syn but thats a reach.

I find it kind of weird that arctic seemed to be around for the EoD but never really pparticipated when we had such close wagons, when i looked at Visor's iso for votecounts, they dont show up until the last one as one of the last minute votes. In the last 15 minutes main wagons were moving and changing but arctic doesnt vote until the pile on in the last minute. I think thats kind of a bad look if it is true they were in fact around with all the wagon changes and not commiting to anything votewise

I think the least believable claims are wisdom/maple but i wouldnt kill maple til tomorrow; he says he can self resolve, i dont think he can self resolve but i dont think it hurts us killing him tomorrow instead of today in the weird chance that he can clear himself. I wouldnt berate you for going there today though


If you want to go outside the claims, i'd go somewhere in dolby/benneh/ladd/sunbae. I would probably go sunbae

I think I'd vote out wisdom if we are to go inside the claims. The day 1 reads of jan/ender didn't make sense to me and the claim today feels meh.

my heart say go wisdom so thats where i'll vote for now

Vote: Wisdom

I think wisdom because there is no way we can confirm that role and it will always just be a question we have. Even if we can surmise there is an arsonist, it still wouldnt clear wisdom.


I believe i have two posts left and im going to save them for the eod.


PSPSPSPSPSPSPSPSPSPS

I was about to post this and i saw the dya/rask threadvelopment. The correct thing to do is to do nothing. I think if they are not v/v then rask is always the wolf. Dya is under no pressure to claim and if i understand them correctly there is some reason where rask can't be the sheep shooter. Rask still has a shot so if he's a villa you just let him shoot the wolf!dya. EZ PZ.

I'd go wisdom still because they work as a wolf regardless of how the claimbattle turns out and they have one of the weaker claims.

Vote: Wisdom

guess i'm just gonna use this time to talk about some other things

i don't like wisdom's post about the situation regardless of what rask is (i think dya is town either way imo, claim matches too well with what they've been crumbing previously + no real reason to claim here). it feels like TMI that rask is a wolf here, or even if he isn't the lack of real consideration about what's going on doesn't feel great

i haven't spoken about grr yet today but i want it known that i am +1'ing all of the lock town meta reads on him - he is a much more binary player as a wolf and it would be a lot more obvious. he isn't really capable of replicating the back and forth he's had over his reads and his doubt/paranoia on stuff. i can't describe it very well and these all feel like buzzwords, but he is a pretty idiosyncratic player and the way he's been parsing this game particularly with the frustration over being ignored on the newcomb push + his indignation in interactions with rask today are just from town him. i would not reconsider this read until lylo

insomnia's posts are also just too good, even if ladd is town i don't care i just feel like he's been the only person in the group of "strong players" who's been seriously getting his hands dirty and actually parsing that group, would maybe reconsider like the day before lylo but i doubt it. same applies to stett, she has a particular way of questioning people as town where i can tell she cares about the response and her follow ups have been proof of this

i'm actually less sure on ladd being a wolf now that i think wisdom is probably a wolf which is ironic given the earlier sentiment expressed, but ladd was the first person to call out wisdom's claim as probably fake iirc so it's worth thinking about. i would expect at least one between them though

i was going to say that after colonel's post transcripting the neighborhood chat i would have locked him as town but learning that was all fake kind of gave me whiplash and also scares me a little in terms of implications for how good his wolfgame is knowing he can fake all that. i haven't had many other thoughts on his posts today. i'd re-visit him like.. tomorrow, honestly? maybe the day after

sunbae i am kinda townreading cuz i honestly just believe the unconvincing self-meta wall. like they expected it to be not convincing if they are a wolf. when i'm town i have a habit of doing the same thing and just posting it anyway because i know it's true, and i don't bother so much when i'm a wolf. i also don't really feel like they have an agenda and the restless urge to do something that strong wolf players have tends to be pretty hard to ignore, and that's what he's done this game if he is a wolf. i find it much easier to just be happy about doing nothing when i'm town than when i'm a wolf, most people probably know this feeling too. is this gonna stop you guys killing him later - probably not, and i don't expect it to either, so this one is more of a hero townread that i fully expect you guys to ignore

montmorency actually, uh, yeah still no clue honestly. i find his posting very null. i've seen the arguments about his eod1 seeming uninformed and there seems to be some meta involved which i nodded along to, but i think this may need to be reconsidered if rask is a wolf too

benneh i think kinda falls into a similar place to sunbae for me (quite unhelpful, i know) but i don't really think the way he's playing is super sustainable as a wolf? i know that like, no one is really trying to kill him but going back to the restless urge thing, it seems like if he is a wolf he's perfectly happy about just letting villagers clear each other which is inevitably going to result in his untimely boxing in. dunno. i think he's had fine posts today, i don't agree with the ender push but i think his last push on rask seemed the most grounded thing presented today. i'm running out of people to call a wolf though so uhm i guess he's just a wolf anyway. rip!

think i've more or less spoken about everyone else

i have found knights and gemma distinctly unimpressive today (moreso knights, i still believe gemma is spewed) but if we keep missing killing people who aren't either of these two, the world where all of the wagons on day 1 were wolves is worth considering, because wolves stacking on syn there is like, pretty a pretty reasonable explanation for things. so re-visit them if the above people keep flipping town i guess

but as it stands my poe would probably be

jan (replace with colonel if rask is wolf)
dolby
mont
vanta
benneh
ladd
maple
wisdom
rask

sap, here is where I am at. Only time I will be able to post from a pc today probably

v
ladd
insomnia
grr
jan
dya
gemma
dolby


I am pretty confident the above has 0 wolves, dont really care to go into detail on any of them rigth now cause I am short of time but dont touch them until lylo.

the rest
maple
wisdom
ender
vanta
monty
knights
benneh
sunbae



my FEELING without reading back is that vanta/monti are probably villagers but it's also hard to fully clear them with confidence

Of the 2 i think monti has the more tangible reasons to actually be cleared, it feels like he is in his own little word in a villagery way when he is around

I also think vanta is probably spewed v by wisdom w



Sunbae has been saying all the right things today, in the sense that i have agreed with 99% of the things he said. My only problem is that I just cant find any reason why it cannot be just a wolvf spinning his wheels? Like I read dolby solving and think he is an obvious villager, I sadly just dont get the same feeling from sunbae posts but if someone pointed a gun to my head I would say they are a villager



Knights's posting just isnt cutting it with me, sorry. I think his push on Jan should have been revaluated a while ago and I really dont find anything he has said this game villagery, the issues I had with him d1 are all still there. In the end if he is a wolf who decided to buss at eod1 his posting would look pretty much exactly like this



Gonna talk about benneh cause it ties into my knights read well enuf since knights/benneh is a thing I have been strongly considering in my mind from like early d1. I have been unfair to benneh this game and for that sorry, I know i have been lazy as fuck in actually reading you. I think their bottom 4 being 3 pr claims+1 me isnt a great sign and i think the way he is pushing maple today is a bit sueperficial but more importantly I just cant really find villa benneh after 3 days which is pretty unsual.



And then we have the 3 PR claims:

ender - i want him to claim for clarity cause he has been softing giving stett somethign and that seems to kinda counterclaim maple but he has been vague about it. Idk I just feel there is so much pr claims+he is in the POE where I dont see any reasong for him not to claim. Gth think villa but want claim. Not w/w with benneh


maple - i'll be real, the only thing I dislike with manti wrt the claim is that they said they were self confirmable yesterday which isnt exactly true even if someone got the card since apparentely manti does nto know what the cards do? I think arctic was an ok target given how many PR claims were around

wisdom - i am sad but i think they are just a wolf. Their firefighter claim mechanically just doesnt make sense to me, I have seen them claim early as a wolf before, their d2 was pretty bad and i thought their vanta push on d2 in particular felt super lazy from them. I just think from d2 on they have missed the SPARK. I also dont like they they have been leaning on their softs as a way to make their claim more villagery- the truth is that most villagers dont actually care to soft. If it helps bop also wanted them dead before dying

im also just going to listen to the dead vilalgers and call grr lock town and blame them if wrong, cause thats 3 of them feeling very strong about grr

[Sunbae]

So it's day 4 and I think it's usually a great idea to reset once you hit the midgame and just methodically go through the player list and reevaluate all of your reads. Just a good way to not get locked in and cover all the bases. So I'm going to do that.

Villagers

Sunbae (thats me!)
Dyachei (vig, pew pew)
Grr (locked in by like every dead villager)
Insom (voted syn d1, voted benneh to open day 2, called villager strongly by Arctic and Ladd and Bop)

Leaves me a pool to work from of:
Vanta
Gemma
Ender
Wisdom
Maple
Mont
Knights
Dolby


So I'm going to continue working through this list today. It's not finished obviously, just working through the process and figured it'd be more fun to show the process than just post a list at the end. I think I have to work from that villager list being pure.

[Sunbae]

Hi stett!

Where did you see me play?

I am not a great scumhunter, and I don't think I have a typical approach. Kinda vibey, and I have had some good streaks where I identified scum but I'm not very persuasive at getting them voted. A lot of it is "gut feeling thisi player is town, will follow their vote," but I'm pretty strict about not voting my townreads no matter what.

Do not expect any walls from me. If I'm still here by D4 I will probably come up with a very outlandish theory to explain the game.

@Vanta Black

I am ready for the very outlandish theory

[insomnia]

Vote: Wisdom

I will jail Maple and you can assume I will execute.

We will have a night talk of course but this is where I stand right now and big things need to happen for that to change. (actual hard confirmation that the village can comprehend even if I die).

aaa

[Sunbae]

Well I am going to bed now, I had a meeting earlier tonight and it used up most of my brain. But I'm saying this for tomorrow, I thought Gemma's vote on syn was a little skeevy. I have got a note that says she had a town lean on him earlier, if I can read my writing. I want to iso her and see how this happened because I also think she had early townlean on TKON and also put a vote on him. You all can read this as light suss on Gemma. I can't prove nothin' though.

Toan villagey
Content hmphy
Which wins out

[Sunbae]

A small note:

I do not think Knights and Gemma are paired based on eod1. Knight's responses to Gemma and Gemma voting Knights before they all pivot to Syn just doesn't strike me as paired. It's the way that Knights shades Gemma and eventually has the "do you really think I'm wolfier than (someone I forget) or syn?" post that Gemma says "no not really" or something similar before moving off. There would also be insane amounts of bussing here?

I also do not think Gemma and Wisdom are paired. But I think the threads been hammering that one so I won't explain it further.

[Sunbae]

Vanta,

that post says you have been making notes on players. Could you share where your heads at with different people?

[Sunbae]

Also, if you're wondering why I'm so concerned about the lost wolf signal from Benneh:

If benneh is a pack wolf then I think I can clear Wisdom and Ender from the way Benneh talked about them. Wisdom was an early defense with an overly long explanation post and then went after Wisdom later when possible. Then with Ender Benneh jumped on my early suspicion which is not how he'd treat a teammate or anything.

The issue is I don't know if I can actually do that. Which is why I'm quite annoyed at the signal post (good post Benneh).

[Wisdom]

Headache day

Vote:Maple This is still a wolf, but I'm guessing not arsonist. I'm not really sure who the other ones are, not confident that Gemma's wolfing right now.

Dya/Dolby/Grr/Insomnia all town I think. So 1-2 wolves in [Sunbae Knights Ender Vanta Gemma]. Gut still says Vanta/Gemma but I dunno.

[dyachei]

@dyachei

why mont v? im pretty back and forth on the slot. the ladd stuff gives me the most concern at the moment. seems plausibly teamed with other slots in the poe

it's just that he's upper POE to me. I think his defense of rask is weird if he's a wolf tbh but it wouldnt have really ended up with a wolf dead if he got his way, either so he could be white knighting

[Sunbae]

villagers are
dya
insom
grr
dolby
maple

maple's there bc im willing to hold the read for jan

dolby voters should have more to say imo to justify a wagon on the slot

Gemma, can you town case Dolby for me? It would help me out a lot because I'm not entirely sure there.

[Sunbae]

it's just that he's upper POE to me. I think his defense of rask is weird if he's a wolf tbh but it wouldnt have really ended up with a wolf dead if he got his way, either so he could be white knighting

My current take on Mont is that:

- their eod1 of unvoting Rask (a villager to a wolf) while Syn is starting to get wagoned
- their eod2 of claiming lovers with Rask (a villager to a wolf) to try and save Rask as the last moment
- their day 3 posting including their insistence that wisdom is the best kill to solve to gemma reads towny to me (in that "a villager thinks something, repeats it a bunch, nobody else is really thinking that way but they truly believe it so they dont care and keep repeating it)

has me leaning villager but I can't lock it in without first exploring how the Ladd vote came about closer and not really having a huge "this person is clear" certainty moment

[Sunbae]

uh, im reading through enders iso and its quite villagery?

[Maple]

Headache day

Vote:Maple This is still a wolf, but I'm guessing not arsonist. I'm not really sure who the other ones are, not confident that Gemma's wolfing right now.

Dya/Dolby/Grr/Insomnia all town I think. So 1-2 wolves in [Sunbae Knights Ender Vanta Gemma]. Gut still says Vanta/Gemma but I dunno.

There is 0 way I go over, over you. If you want to not die today, try someone else. If you try pushing me, you are just going to die pathetically.

If you are village, I implore you to push someone else, even if you genuinely believe I'm a wolf because this just seals your fate.

[dyachei]

uh, im reading through enders iso and its quite villagery?

with his interactions with ender I feel pretty sure ender is v here

[Sunbae]

with his interactions with ender I feel pretty sure ender is v here

Im a bit disappointed that Ender and I have just been sending smoke signals back and forth this game cause its always fun to vibe with him :(

Can I get your thoughts on my "oh no, Benneh posted a lost wolf signal and now I don't know if I can read into his thoughts on Wisdom?" thing cause I'm kind of hung up on it and backburnering a Wisdom iso until later this game day because of it.

[dyachei]

Im a bit disappointed that Ender and I have just been sending smoke signals back and forth this game cause its always fun to vibe with him :(

Can I get your thoughts on my "oh no, Benneh posted a lost wolf signal and now I don't know if I can read into his thoughts on Wisdom?" thing cause I'm kind of hung up on it and backburnering a Wisdom iso until later this game day because of it.

can you quote the post I dont quite know what you mean

[Sunbae]

I'm gonna be honest here: I've just been ignoring the wisdom/maple claim stuff and will just be trying to solve people by their postings.

like, i can't know for sure if Jan was roleblocked or spared maple and I feel like theres enough info in the thread to not bank the game on guessing which one is which you know?

and i think "just focus on the people not being villagery" has been working out (syn/rask/benneh) and should continue working today if we go through the game and solve

I like my town core posted above and think we can probably expand it if we work together. Im close to putting ender in it (side note: a inverter and a booster seems weird to both be villa but again, not gonna focus on that too much I just wanna mention it)

Outside of Dya/Insom/Grr who is everyones "i will bet the game on them being a villager" read?

[Sunbae]

i mean, i was actively encouraging him to go on...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

sick lost mafia goon soft, ty [ glow] tags

here dya

[Sunbae]

I expect Wisdom, Ender, and Maple to all come in pushing me and/or Monty

Big question for me for how I view EOD is 1. Is Rask a killing or jester role. I think almost certainly a SK variant. In that case I actually really like Gemma’s EoD. Mafia have probably clocked that Rask is SK by that point and I don’t think that Gemma would be saying that they were saying about the claims then. Same applies to a way lesser extent to Monty. I kind of don’t like Vantas vote on Dya looking at it in retrospect bc like, any town should recognize that Rask looks worse but I also think that Vanta was kinda disconnected from the thread in that moment so it’s probably fine

I think Ender can turn it around but bro is probs wolfing, more at 11

Can you elaborate on this "wolves clocked Rask is SK" line?

[Sunbae]

how do we know wolves carry? i checked op and dont see it am i blind

If Benneh is a pack wolf I'd lock clear Gemma for this post fdksgjldghdk

[Sunbae]

he's now sexier

lmao

i kinda kept missing it in real time but rereading, gemma's posts are hilarious <3

[dyachei]

Idk what to make of that but Ben makes lost wolf jokes all the time so...

Gemma is my next lock town sunbae

[insomnia]

I'm gonna be honest here: I've just been ignoring the wisdom/maple claim stuff and will just be trying to solve people by their postings.

like, i can't know for sure if Jan was roleblocked or spared maple and I feel like theres enough info in the thread to not bank the game on guessing which one is which you know?

and i think "just focus on the people not being villagery" has been working out (syn/rask/benneh) and should continue working today if we go through the game and solve

I like my town core posted above and think we can probably expand it if we work together. Im close to putting ender in it (side note: a inverter and a booster seems weird to both be villa but again, not gonna focus on that too much I just wanna mention it)

Outside of Dya/Insom/Grr who is everyones "i will bet the game on them being a villager" read?

Ender