Tarot Mafia

[Sunbae]

I think I came up with the maple killed arctic with pgo theory but don't believe it anymore

think that wisdom is a wolf for posting unrelated to their claim

I am hung up on the word "anymore" here. Because what Dolby is arguing is that on day 3 when he floated the idea that Arctic was killed by Maples PGO in an effort to push Maple it was really an attempted trap to see if any wolves spewed knowledge that this did not occur. However, the word "anymore" here insinuates that it was a real belief at the time and it can not possibly have been if what is claimed is true.

I also cannot help but note that on day 2 the plan was for Maple to clear themselves with a "self-resolving role", Dolby roleblocked them, and then when the thread began pushing Maple for not self clearing themself dolby piled on and did not try to dissuade people from pushing for that despite being the reason Maple would not be self cleared.

I cannot get over these two facts and I will be voting Dolby. If I am wrong then I am sorry but I cannot work out how this can be real with Dolby's posting surrounding it.

vote: dolby

[Sunbae]

This is not the sole reason for my Dolby wolf read. I was coming to that via posting (their pushing of Ladd) and interactions (with Benneh) to begin with. This is on top of that.

[Sunbae]

I am willing to take the blame on this one if wrong and for the first time all game will ask Dya and other villagers who believe in me to follow.

[theknightsofneeee]

So I spent the night thinking about it and I think I have to operate under the assumption that it's possible Benneh didn't know the wolves after the lost wolf goon signal. Not necessarily certain, but it also explains a bit why he'd basically be spinning wheels in the middle ground and keeping a relatively low profile without pushing anyone overly hard. Which means I don't want to give any villager points from Benneh spew to people.

which is fine, we can just ignore the bullshit and just focus on people posting woofy to solve.

I do still think the wolves certainly knew benneh in this case after the signal so I do want to still read into spew in that direction.

So it's day 4 and I think it's usually a great idea to reset once you hit the midgame and just methodically go through the player list and reevaluate all of your reads. Just a good way to not get locked in and cover all the bases. So I'm going to do that.

Villagers

Sunbae (thats me!)
Dyachei (vig, pew pew)
Grr (locked in by like every dead villager)
Insom (voted syn d1, voted benneh to open day 2, called villager strongly by Arctic and Ladd and Bop)

Leaves me a pool to work from of:
Vanta
Gemma
Ender
Wisdom
Maple
Mont
Knights
Dolby


So I'm going to continue working through this list today. It's not finished obviously, just working through the process and figured it'd be more fun to show the process than just post a list at the end. I think I have to work from that villager list being pure.

A small note:

I do not think Knights and Gemma are paired based on eod1. Knight's responses to Gemma and Gemma voting Knights before they all pivot to Syn just doesn't strike me as paired. It's the way that Knights shades Gemma and eventually has the "do you really think I'm wolfier than (someone I forget) or syn?" post that Gemma says "no not really" or something similar before moving off. There would also be insane amounts of bussing here?

I also do not think Gemma and Wisdom are paired. But I think the threads been hammering that one so I won't explain it further.

Also, if you're wondering why I'm so concerned about the lost wolf signal from Benneh:

If benneh is a pack wolf then I think I can clear Wisdom and Ender from the way Benneh talked about them. Wisdom was an early defense with an overly long explanation post and then went after Wisdom later when possible. Then with Ender Benneh jumped on my early suspicion which is not how he'd treat a teammate or anything.

The issue is I don't know if I can actually do that. Which is why I'm quite annoyed at the signal post (good post Benneh).

Ok so if I understand all of the claim situations:

On day 2 Maple said they have a self confirming role that will happen overnight. The thread, which had found Maple wolfy enough to force a claim, agrees to kill Rask over Maple in an effort to let Maple's claim self resolve.

Dolby, a JOAT, roleblocks Maple

On day 3, we open with 3 deaths. The argument provided is that Maple's PGO - an item that kills anyone who targets them last night - was activated and killed Arctic, who is likely villa even vig given the "death is KP" post Arctic made.

Dolby then puts forth the argument that Maple's PGO is what killed Arctic.

On day 3, the thread once against allows Maple to live because Jan can jailkeep, talk to maple, and then execute.

On night 3, Dolby tracks Jan to Dya.

On day 4, Manti claims that Jan jailkept Maple (a day action), received a protective card, and that card was used on Dya. Due to receiving a protective card, Jan allows Maple to live. Jan is killed in the night.





Here is my conclusion:

Having Dolby claim a track of Jan to Dya makes me believe Manti. Benneh's spew makes me want to villa read Manti.

What I do not believe is that Dolby as a villager can argue that Maple's PGO is an item that - in Dolby's own words - "Kills everyone who targets Maple in the night" and killed Arctic ON THE SAME NIGHT DOLBY VISITED MAPLE. And then use that argument as a means to push Maple. If Dolby believes this, Dolby would be dead because again, Dolby visited Maple that same night.

What I think instead is that Dolby is just a wolf roleblocker, blocked Maple to prevent the "self resolving" thing (which the specifics weren't known yet at that point), and then blocked Jan last night to prevent a Maple kill because keeping Maple alive to muddy the waters is pro-wolf on those two nights.

In addition to all of this, I have found my reads to be pointing to a Dolby wolf world as well as found interaction with Benneh to be partnery.

All things considered I will be Vote: Dolby and hope it is a hit

okay suuuuper agreed this is all super fishy IMO



AFAIK dolby's claimed track is the only thing to confirm any of maple's actions btw

super important to keep in mind we still don't know how/when maple gave jan a doctor either (and maple is claiming that jan said he wasn't going to execute him, so if wolves did jailkeep jan, that makes maple still likely a wolf, because why prevent kp on a village powerrole?)

[theknightsofneeee]

So I spent the night thinking about it and I think I have to operate under the assumption that it's possible Benneh didn't know the wolves after the lost wolf goon signal. Not necessarily certain, but it also explains a bit why he'd basically be spinning wheels in the middle ground and keeping a relatively low profile without pushing anyone overly hard. Which means I don't want to give any villager points from Benneh spew to people.

which is fine, we can just ignore the bullshit and just focus on people posting woofy to solve.

I do still think the wolves certainly knew benneh in this case after the signal so I do want to still read into spew in that direction.

So it's day 4 and I think it's usually a great idea to reset once you hit the midgame and just methodically go through the player list and reevaluate all of your reads. Just a good way to not get locked in and cover all the bases. So I'm going to do that.

Villagers

Sunbae (thats me!)
Dyachei (vig, pew pew)
Grr (locked in by like every dead villager)
Insom (voted syn d1, voted benneh to open day 2, called villager strongly by Arctic and Ladd and Bop)

Leaves me a pool to work from of:
Vanta
Gemma
Ender
Wisdom
Maple
Mont
Knights
Dolby


So I'm going to continue working through this list today. It's not finished obviously, just working through the process and figured it'd be more fun to show the process than just post a list at the end. I think I have to work from that villager list being pure.

A small note:

I do not think Knights and Gemma are paired based on eod1. Knight's responses to Gemma and Gemma voting Knights before they all pivot to Syn just doesn't strike me as paired. It's the way that Knights shades Gemma and eventually has the "do you really think I'm wolfier than (someone I forget) or syn?" post that Gemma says "no not really" or something similar before moving off. There would also be insane amounts of bussing here?

I also do not think Gemma and Wisdom are paired. But I think the threads been hammering that one so I won't explain it further.

Also, if you're wondering why I'm so concerned about the lost wolf signal from Benneh:

If benneh is a pack wolf then I think I can clear Wisdom and Ender from the way Benneh talked about them. Wisdom was an early defense with an overly long explanation post and then went after Wisdom later when possible. Then with Ender Benneh jumped on my early suspicion which is not how he'd treat a teammate or anything.

The issue is I don't know if I can actually do that. Which is why I'm quite annoyed at the signal post (good post Benneh).

I think Monte has some wolf equity and have no clue about Knights.

serious question

how do you have no clue about me?

i've been a serious wagon/wolf read for large portion of the game in 3 out of 4 of the game days.

IDGI

[Wisdom]

Why?

Only because he hasn't been talked about lately, I still tr him

[theknightsofneeee]

Villagers

knights

dya (vig)
sunbae (obvious villager)
gemma (their push on me today doesn't feel wolfy, and I don't know that I can ever vote them after EOD1)
vanta (did an iso yesterday and they felt level 1 villagery, their EOD 3 felt good to me in the moment as well, want to double check associations with benneh but still feel good)
ender (villagery posting)
grr? (kind of an old read, didn't like their read on me they gave today, but I remember liking their iso a lot when I read it last)


is there an obvious village read that I'm missing?

[dyachei]

Vote dolby

Did visor list an order of operations?

[Wisdom]

serious question

how do you have no clue about me?

i've been a serious wagon/wolf read for large portion of the game in 3 out of 4 of the game days.

IDGI

Probably a bad habit of never being able to read you so I tend to follow those who I think can read you better. This is always my approach to you in mashes as well. It's not your fault, I'm just struggling to find what's ai in your posts.

[theknightsofneeee]

I still think that the wisdom role is real, I think mech wise it makes sense with the inverter (cool interaction), we have a flipped neutral that could have easily been an arsonist.

I know i should play the game and not the setup, but its hard not to metagame setups to a certain extent, and wisdom being the consensus wolf read yesterday felt like DADV (which was a small part of why I pushed the ladd wagon)

I don't really have a reason to specifically villa read wisdom, which is super awkward (*caveat have yet to read benneh/wisdom associations)

probably wouldn't go wisdom today.

[Wisdom]

I'm falling asleep and I'm leaving vote blank because I don't have the capacity to figure stuff out and it's 4 hours left anyway. Good luck and yeet wolves <3

[insomnia]

is there maj turned on?

i kinda skimmed while i was trying to get a top rank for a game, gonna find out if i get it at reset. so now i have some time to spare

im fine voting dolby. there's just no world where all the claims are villas

[Dolby]

yo do me a favor and don't maj me until like, 30 min before eod

[theknightsofneeee]

insomnia i still have a very very light villa read from EOD1 and his treatment of syn felt not w/w


so i guess i'm at exactly dolby/maple/monty ?

POE gaming i guess

[theknightsofneeee]

gonna read benneh iso for an hour or so bbiab

[Dolby]

Vote: Wisdom

I kinda just think that it's in Wisdom/Maple/Knights up yeah. This is mainly because I townread everyone and I could be wrong on people, but Sunbae just looks a lot like a villager on days three and four. Monty I am wolfreading for reasons beyond "yeah maybe ladd is right" since I think that him keeping on saying "we should kill wisdom to clear Gemma" and just, not voting there, honestly looks pretty teammed. Knights is kinda just, I don't really have strong reasons to feel like he's town. Vanta black, again I feel their vote was meaningfully different than Benneh's, and would have made Benneh's unneccessary. Still think that ultimately everyone else not mentioned is town (maybe Gemma or grr could be wolves but I also straight up don't actually believe this).

I am comfortable town locking Ender. That is the most important non consensus portion of this legacy. If he is, well congrats on killing me while pocketing me

[Maple]

have a really bad headache right now sorry

im trying to wrap my head around "why this line"

[Montmorency]

Hmm, ok, so I haven't read any of today besides the beginning that I was present for. I thought this would be a fairly stable day, but it seems Dolby has claimed, at least (and more people think Wisdom is town?).

Here's where I was SOD:

Lock
dya
Maple

T
gemma
insomnia

TL
grr
Vanta

Null
knights
Ender


Sunbae
Dolby

M
Wisdom

From my perspective, Wisdom has little to commend her, a variety of interesting arguments against her, and the POE benefit of moving Gemma and Ender to lock status if scum. Then, it's not even that Dolby is a SR, but that I'm very down on him after yesterday and there's kind of noone else to slot in (knights and vanta aren't suitable atp). If Wisdom is scum and flips today, then most of the rest of the round outcomes seem relatively predictable to me, not that I'll list it all out.

I dunno what to make of Dolby's claim or of Sunbae's nebby walls. So, please make succinct cases for your preferences between Wisdom and Dolby in the next hour. I'm not sure how I can make the right decision.


Dolby 3 Enderwiggin grr sunbae
Wisdom 2 Dolby, insomnia,
maple 2 wisdom, gemma
knightofneeee 1 dyachei

Could I get an update on: what Ender claimed for N3; what Wisdom claimed for N3; why people are clearing Wisdom now.

[Montmorency]

Oh, this is the outing post?
I read it before but I guess I'm missing some context.

If Benneh decided to sacrifice himself to make sure both Ladd and myself get yeeted is probably proof that an arsonist actually exists and will ignite to a victory.

What's the numbers now? 12 players, 2-3 wolves?

Let's run that, say 3 wolves

9v/3w
I get misyeeted
8v/3w
Ignition kills 2 + factional
5v/3w

Okay that's not an auto win but it's getting the team to f3 with 3 wolves.
Yeah that's not looking good for us.

Could be two wolves left tho. Could be no arsonist. Not sure why Benneh would make a move like that in that case.

But, there's nothing AI about this vote unless it's saving specifically you. If it's just town wagons, neb has no reason to drop votes like that, and hell, if we knew they were all town wagons retroactively, it wouldn't even make sense to shoot him.

Vote: Wisdom

Monty I am wolfreading for reasons beyond "yeah maybe ladd is right" since I think that him keeping on saying "we should kill wisdom to clear Gemma" and just, not voting there, honestly looks pretty teammed.

Unless Wisdom is town, in which case if I vote her it's power scumming.

[Montmorency]

Just to be clear, we have all the following flips/claims:

1. Rask neutral vig?
2. dya town vig
3. ender town inverter/upgrader
4. maple town inventor
5. Jan town JK
6. Wisdom town firefighter
7. Dolby town JOAT

Is that complete?

Hm, why have both inventor and JOAT.

[Montmorency]

What I think instead is that Dolby is just a wolf roleblocker, blocked Maple to prevent the "self resolving" thing (which the specifics weren't known yet at that point), and then blocked Jan last night to prevent a Maple kill because keeping Maple alive to muddy the waters is pro-wolf on those two nights.

I understand the argument from contradiction in PGO perspective slip, but - can you rephrase the quoted? If Dolby is RB and RBed Jan last night, how did Jan protect dya? It's just about plausible that mafia didn't want to kill themn and lacked kp in the first place to do it, since as of yesterday they may have believed they were played out, but in that case it almost certainly has to be a Maple-Dolby pair. Most of what we have are unconfirmable claims. But what we can confirm is that dya survived and Jan didn't. Visor would use a system where blocking a blocker would block their block, yes? So even though dya may have been exhausted PR, they were more lock-town than Jan, so using a Mafia RB to indefinitely block (contain) Jan, and try to frame him, while killing dya immediately, may be more logical.

The easiest scenario is that Jan both JKed and protected, with the shield Maple gave him.

Unless Wisdom is truly firefighter and doused dya at some point, but has she even claimed that?

[grr]

is there maj turned on?

i kinda skimmed while i was trying to get a top rank for a game, gonna find out if i get it at reset. so now i have some time to spare

im fine voting dolby. there's just no world where all the claims are villas

hope u get yeeted in this game tbh

[dyachei]

@Sunbae I'm trusting you here

I think knights is a more surefire hit though

[grr]

When dya swerved I thought that took a vote away from Wisdom, added one to ladd, and put ladd in the lead. But Going back over it afterwards it seems I tied it instead.

Who's a villager: I still think grr, going back and forth on dya (is my wild theory really all that wild? Because the Neb-as-lost-wolf if I'm reading it right could make it work), still really sus on Wisdom especially since she has suddenly started town-reading me.

if ur implication is that dya didnt know benneh was a wolf, no. really doubt it after that EoD even if he was lost wolf.

[grr]

you guys are weird af

[grr]

why was i called weird.

[Dolby]

Hey I’m back

Gonna be real I think wisdom has tmi I’m town and Jan wasn’t roleblocked

[Visor]

Players Votes

Dolby 3 (EnderWiggin, grr, Sunbae)
Wisdom 2 (Dolby, insomnia)
Maple 2 (Wisdom, Gemma)
Theknightsofneeee 1 (dyachei)

[grr]

@Sunbae I'm trusting you here

I think knights is a more surefire hit though

umm just curious whats the wolfcase on him btw i am unaware of it. is there a post that has it?

[dyachei]

umm just curious whats the wolfcase on him btw i am unaware of it. is there a post that has it?

idk the post number but i think his d1 combined with benneh spew makes him look wolfy af

i talked about benneh spew earlier