Tarot Mafia

[grr]

I will admit that both of you (knights and wisdom) had posts where i thought hm this kinda reads like a villager wrote that, but.

a) ladd's (and everyones really) legacy makes me hard to ignore that. and also, you both were townreading sunbae and a world where all 3 of you are villas that's like. oof, rough sell for me.

[insomnia]

knights, you think wisdom / maple is v/v correct?

what is your PoE then?

[theknightsofneeee]

because the neutral "arsonist" wouldn't claim a kill d2 that is not his?

cmon bruh

He was under strong pressure for a wagon already (which was why he claimed), he could demonstrate kp if he was an arsonist, and no one had claimed the sheep kill so it was possibly wolf KP and claiming it wouldn’t bite him.

Plus closed setup claims are impossible to disprove. Could have been a stack of KP.

I don’t know that it was optimal but arsonists are MOST of the time neutral, stands to reason when a neutral flips there is a decent chance they were lying about claims.

[Sunbae]

for those curious: while i do not blame dolby at all (everyone here knows ive done similar before - hello cc'ing lissa) I am deflated at that being wrong given I feel like it was a good case for good reasons that did not factor in the possibility of dolby just making it up as a villager. this is coupled with my mild deflation at correctly reading rask as off early only for him to be 3p and my more severe deflation with not sticking up for vladd wbenneh thoughts on day 3. I was hoping a day removed from the thread would reinvigorate me, alas it has not.

My general take for the game state is:

- If two different pr villagers went out of their way to save Maple because their info make them think Maple villager then I suppose I just have to roll with it. Which I mean, isn't that hard for me given I villa read at various points anyways and then villa read due to spew, but now I can blame others instead of myself if I'm wrong and that's huge game.

- The dolby one hurts because it goes against my general approach of midgaming which is "just kill the people not trying to solve" and dolby was doing a lot of solving. That was a bad chop in hindsight (im sure to others it was a badchop in real time). But it does make me want to pull back to that general approach.

- Dya thought Knights was a hit. Ladd thought knights was a hit. Im gonna see what bop/arctic/stett/newcomb thought too

- Other option is wisdom and im considering that too. i know bop ended there. my concern is that wisdom/benneh doesnt read w/w to me and wisdoms reads are just so far out of thread consensus (i think insom mentioned villa reading wisdoms entire poe) that i think its odd for a wolf, but its day 5 so like thats not much to overwrite all the dead villagers that wanted them dead

- we are currently in sponge dead villa mode i just gotta see which one i wanna do that with

[insomnia]

He was under strong pressure for a wagon already (which was why he claimed), he could demonstrate kp if he was an arsonist, and no one had claimed the sheep kill so it was possibly wolf KP and claiming it wouldn’t bite him.

Plus closed setup claims are impossible to disprove. Could have been a stack of KP.

I don’t know that it was optimal but arsonists are MOST of the time neutral, stands to reason when a neutral flips there is a decent chance they were lying about claims.

he would've said he stacked with dya, not counter them if that was the case

he had a much easier chance just playing it out than claiming in a closed setup

and sheep was never a wolf kill imo and plenty of us said that

ymmv

[insomnia]

knights, i tagged you in one post with a different set of questions and the answers are prob gonna make or break your alignment to me

so if you can answer that'd be great

[grr]

I’m not willing to consider sunbae as a wolf today. A)his solving has been very good, he has built worldviews that meshed extremely well with my own, b) correctly read me as villa im high leverage spots where if he went the other way, I probably die, c) he voted and pushed benneh for what feels like correct reasoning and not distancing, and benneh’s read on sunbae feels like sucking up to a villager in retrospect.

but like, the thing is i dont think this is true about the worldview? from my memory 2 stances were you were heavily conflicting:

a) sunbae was townreading ladd while you were heavily sussing him.
b) d2 sunbae called rask/dya v/v in the CC quickly, you were content with rask going? and called him wolfy (#2207)

[theknightsofneeee]

knights, you think wisdom / maple is v/v correct?

what is your PoE then?

Villagers

Knights

Gemma (do t think I can kill here based on EOD1)
Sunbae (if sunbae is a wolf he issomeone I have to deal with in Lylo)
Maple (claim)
Wisdom (claim)
Grr (hella villagery)



Wolves

Everyone else

[Sunbae]

I feel like the wombo combo of Ladd into Dolby has really stifled our ability to sort through someone like Mont or Vanta and uh, is problem

[Sunbae]

Did benneh start pushing wisdom harder on day 2 or day 3

[Sunbae]

Villagers

Knights

Gemma (do t think I can kill here based on EOD1)
Sunbae (if sunbae is a wolf he issomeone I have to deal with in Lylo)
Maple (claim)
Wisdom (claim)
Grr (hella villagery)



Wolves

Everyone else

what about ender

[theknightsofneeee]

but like, the thing is i dont think this is true about the worldview? from my memory 2 stances were you were heavily conflicting:

a) sunbae was townreading ladd while you were heavily sussing him.
b) d2 sunbae called rask/dya v/v in the CC quickly, you were content with rask going? and called him wolfy (#2207)

I specifically quoted his reads list day 3(?) and it was essentially my exact reads with like two minor adjustments.

Rask reads are hard to make reads on since he was a neutral. Sunbae calling them v/v would be possible tmi (like with his read on me and read on benneh) but he’s also just a really good villager and I don’t think those reads are unobtainable for him.

@Sunbae I’m going to make a direct meta appeal to you. Idk if you remember this game or not, but we played a game several years ago where I was a wolf with maple (I think) and you were villaging. I went into final 5 and only needed one elim for the win. And you systematically solved the game over a full day in a way I have yet to see any villager replicate. I eventually had to concede you were just obvious village and try to push someone else, and you hammered me.

If I were a wolf this game (or any game you are villagering) you will never survive past day 2. Period.

If you are a villager, I am NEVER a wolf here.

I would kill you over power roles.

I fear your village game like no other.

[Sunbae]

guess i'm just gonna use this time to talk about some other things

i don't like wisdom's post about the situation regardless of what rask is (i think dya is town either way imo, claim matches too well with what they've been crumbing previously + no real reason to claim here). it feels like TMI that rask is a wolf here, or even if he isn't the lack of real consideration about what's going on doesn't feel great

i haven't spoken about grr yet today but i want it known that i am +1'ing all of the lock town meta reads on him - he is a much more binary player as a wolf and it would be a lot more obvious. he isn't really capable of replicating the back and forth he's had over his reads and his doubt/paranoia on stuff. i can't describe it very well and these all feel like buzzwords, but he is a pretty idiosyncratic player and the way he's been parsing this game particularly with the frustration over being ignored on the newcomb push + his indignation in interactions with rask today are just from town him. i would not reconsider this read until lylo

insomnia's posts are also just too good, even if ladd is town i don't care i just feel like he's been the only person in the group of "strong players" who's been seriously getting his hands dirty and actually parsing that group, would maybe reconsider like the day before lylo but i doubt it. same applies to stett, she has a particular way of questioning people as town where i can tell she cares about the response and her follow ups have been proof of this

i'm actually less sure on ladd being a wolf now that i think wisdom is probably a wolf which is ironic given the earlier sentiment expressed, but ladd was the first person to call out wisdom's claim as probably fake iirc so it's worth thinking about. i would expect at least one between them though

i was going to say that after colonel's post transcripting the neighborhood chat i would have locked him as town but learning that was all fake kind of gave me whiplash and also scares me a little in terms of implications for how good his wolfgame is knowing he can fake all that. i haven't had many other thoughts on his posts today. i'd re-visit him like.. tomorrow, honestly? maybe the day after

sunbae i am kinda townreading cuz i honestly just believe the unconvincing self-meta wall. like they expected it to be not convincing if they are a wolf. when i'm town i have a habit of doing the same thing and just posting it anyway because i know it's true, and i don't bother so much when i'm a wolf. i also don't really feel like they have an agenda and the restless urge to do something that strong wolf players have tends to be pretty hard to ignore, and that's what he's done this game if he is a wolf. i find it much easier to just be happy about doing nothing when i'm town than when i'm a wolf, most people probably know this feeling too. is this gonna stop you guys killing him later - probably not, and i don't expect it to either, so this one is more of a hero townread that i fully expect you guys to ignore

montmorency actually, uh, yeah still no clue honestly. i find his posting very null. i've seen the arguments about his eod1 seeming uninformed and there seems to be some meta involved which i nodded along to, but i think this may need to be reconsidered if rask is a wolf too

benneh i think kinda falls into a similar place to sunbae for me (quite unhelpful, i know) but i don't really think the way he's playing is super sustainable as a wolf? i know that like, no one is really trying to kill him but going back to the restless urge thing, it seems like if he is a wolf he's perfectly happy about just letting villagers clear each other which is inevitably going to result in his untimely boxing in. dunno. i think he's had fine posts today, i don't agree with the ender push but i think his last push on rask seemed the most grounded thing presented today. i'm running out of people to call a wolf though so uhm i guess he's just a wolf anyway. rip!

think i've more or less spoken about everyone else

i have found knights and gemma distinctly unimpressive today (moreso knights, i still believe gemma is spewed) but if we keep missing killing people who aren't either of these two, the world where all of the wagons on day 1 were wolves is worth considering, because wolves stacking on syn there is like, pretty a pretty reasonable explanation for things. so re-visit them if the above people keep flipping town i guess

but as it stands my poe would probably be

jan (replace with colonel if rask is wolf)
dolby
mont
vanta
benneh
ladd
maple
wisdom
rask

compiling dead villa legacies one sec

[Sunbae]

i do remember that game knights! i was actually thinking about that one myself a few days ago when i was talking about the old me would just tear through the thread and i dont have that in me anymore lmao

ive got a little bit of time so can we dig through vanta/monte? if youre a villager and you think wisdom is a villager, one of them has to be a wolf right?

[theknightsofneeee]

i do remember that game knights! i was actually thinking about that one myself a few days ago when i was talking about the old me would just tear through the thread and i dont have that in me anymore lmao

ive got a little bit of time so can we dig through vanta/monte? if youre a villager and you think wisdom is a villager, one of them has to be a wolf right?

Yeah I would lean Monty based on vibes/Monty has gotten no heat from anyone despite being in multiple pie’s yesterday.

Vanta has had villagers posting.

But FMPOV there is likely only 1 villa in insomnia/vanta/Monty/enderwiggen

And idk who lol



Am I misremembering something or did Monty have a claim? Can someone remind me?

[theknightsofneeee]

Phone posting so it’s hard to iso/build cases but I’ll go through all 4 of them and give general opinions and quote any super important things

[Sunbae]

Phone posting so it’s hard to iso/build cases but I’ll go through all 4 of them and give general opinions and quote any super important things

ty!

[Sunbae]

no, it's not about the group defense. it's about how he talked about knights compared to sheep. Knights he's very vague on why he's towny. compare that to like any dead villager - even ladd who he flipped on and called a wolf

oh god you want me to think about this sunbae?

if dolby is telling the truth the game just became very easy and knights or wisdom is still the best vote for today. I think knights over wisdom

or he's a wolf. But I also dont think he'd lie this elaborately

more legacies

[Sunbae]

no, it's not about the group defense. it's about how he talked about knights compared to sheep. Knights he's very vague on why he's towny. compare that to like any dead villager - even ladd who he flipped on and called a wolf

i doubt i am dying and if so my plan was to leave jan my legacy (tho I realize he will probably die tonight lol but at least we will have a fun chat)

my associative stop at "i'd kill knights after wisdom" atm

my legacy is this

dont kill until lylo - should be pure

ladd
insomnia
grr
gemma
jan
dya
dolby


leaning villa
ender - again plz make them claim tho. always a villager if knights w
vanta - should be v if wisdom w

PoE
monti - I see the villagery posting but also at some point u gotta punish people for posting dumb arguments and he has been pushing some truly nonsensical things
benneh
sunbae
maple

wolves

knights
wisdom



but idrc about people following my legacy, you guis can do what you want after I die. Those are simply my reads

even more legacies

[Sunbae]

no, it's not about the group defense. it's about how he talked about knights compared to sheep. Knights he's very vague on why he's towny. compare that to like any dead villager - even ladd who he flipped on and called a wolf

I think we should vote wisdom.

It's kind of weird more people don't think dya-rask could be v-v. Because either side claiming as a wolf makes zero sense. Rask can be a 2 shot vog AND dya can be a one shot vig that only works if no one else targets. It isn't that crazy.

@raskolinkov

if you arent killed consider not shooting dya

and to those who think i might look bad for trying to not kill rask if he is indeed a wolf; i started up the syn and rask wagons at eod on day 1. if they are both wolves im a golden god and jan will be giving my tootsies a rub in postgame

gl godbless

yet another dead villager wanting to delete wisdom

[grr]

Villagers

Knights

Gemma (do t think I can kill here based on EOD1)
Sunbae (if sunbae is a wolf he issomeone I have to deal with in Lylo)
Maple (claim)
Wisdom (claim)
Grr (hella villagery)



Wolves

Everyone else

considering u are v-reading gemma (don't disagree). she has been smacking me on the head for voting insomnia today hehe (not to overstate her v-read on insom but she did make it clear she doesnt wanna reconsider the few v-reads she has or something) so at this point i kinda think you have to live with an inso.v world or game is over.

(i also do believe that its the more likely world but i certainly wouldnt have minded grilling him a bit more to uh, idk make sure this is not a thing we're missing. so im just kinda. over this and it is what it is if he is wolfin somehow)

[Sunbae]

sorry if this was true

wisdom is on my radar

last post of stett's

[Sunbae]

i'm special tho :v



i think you could win by not interpreting what people are saying as slights against you but moreso as their own very filtered, personal perception of another slot's subjective feel in the thread, and just go on doing your thing without lampshading how you feel your slot is being treated. you do you though I don't wanna poke the cactus



ho ho ho ho hooooly shit that's mean I love it

Saving my last few posts for vote switching. I'm okay with knights or syn. I'd shed a tear for gemma and don't personally think that's a hit in my gut but I can't throw down the townshield, I don't feel it like that.

o/

and newc was on knights or syn

[Montmorency]

my claim has already been discussed ad nauseam

if im a wolf ive already won that battle, and given 2 village pr claimants have died at this point giving me their complete trust, i *think* it's pretty safe to extend that a bit here

So why wouldn't you reveal your action?

[theknightsofneeee]

considering u are v-reading gemma (don't disagree). she has been smacking me on the head for voting insomnia today hehe (not to overstate her v-read on insom but she did make it clear she doesnt wanna reconsider the few v-reads she has or something) so at this point i kinda think you have to live with an inso.v world or game is over.

(i also do believe that its the more likely world but i certainly wouldnt have minded grilling him a bit more to uh, idk make sure this is not a thing we're missing. so im just kinda. over this and it is what it is if he is wolfin somehow)

Who are your lock villas atm? Is there anyone in my villa circle you aren’t villa reading atm?

I’m def willing to put off dealing with insomnia, mostly because I probably want Monty dead more, but also cause building a case against insomnia while on phone sounds like genuine torture, and if I’m wrong on insomnia and insomnia gets polarized against me we probably just lose the game lol.

Vote: Monty

[insomnia]

Vote: knightsofneeee

[theknightsofneeee]

I'm sober, but up too late.

Okay, Dolby said he was trying to clear Maple, he was town, and the evidence is there that he was trying very hard to clear Maple. But all that doesn't really clear Maple for me. I have no doubt he believed in Maple, I just don't know why. Maple is still a problem for me.

grr
Gemma

Need one more in my towncore

Maple
Wisdom
Knights

One of Maple/Wisdom, can't really put them together, but I don't really do that pairing/unpairing thing. Could kinda see Knights with Neb.

@Vanta Black

We all have to just accept that if Dolby lied on his legacy post when dying about tracking Jan to dya, then we can just blame Dolby in postgame.

That plus Jan not killing maple is more than enough circumstantial evidence to accept the claim.

So, Gemma voted Syn on D1, who flipped wolf, seemed like an unlikely bus. Now earlier she had given a townlean to Syn, and I didn't see the change in her posting. There were players, I forget who, who said Syn's posting was better than in the Saints game, but it looked exactly the same to me, and as Gemma was scum with Syn in that game I thought she might have recognized that. It could have been a bus, didn't look like it.

At the same time, to me her posting in the Saints game and this one seem different. She seems more keen to get some answers, in this one. Not...a lot more keen.

God I am such a sucker


This reads as so villagery to me


Questioning maple being villa after the Dolby elim also doesn’t feel like a wolf angle.

I think vanta is just a villager

[theknightsofneeee]

Vote: knightsofneeee

I will get to your stuff but it’s not the most pressing for me atm

[grr]

Who are your lock villas atm? Is there anyone in my villa circle you aren’t villa reading atm?

I’m def willing to put off dealing with insomnia, mostly because I probably want Monty dead more, but also cause building a case against insomnia while on phone sounds like genuine torture, and if I’m wrong on insomnia and insomnia gets polarized against me we probably just lose the game lol.

Vote: Monty

gemma/inso are probs socially my top TRs then. maple i already explained respecting Jan choosing to spare him and Dolby dying for that.

so these are off the table.

[insomnia]

I will get to your stuff but it’s not the most pressing for me atm

your sense of urgency at EoD compared to how you're placing your votes are extremely wolfy

you start the day thinking it could be end game and your thoughts at LunchLo are "if the first vote i felt like making is a villa we prob lose so i dont wanna push him today"

like what villa thinks that?

you didn't care all game for that in your pushes and when you should, you don't push?

is it cuz you don't have a single reason and you were just testing the waters?