Tarot Mafia

[theknightsofneeee]

I think jan not saving newcomb is somewhat inexcusable if he was a protective (its a closed setup, you don't assume that wolves are gonna medic dodge from the obvious kill because they don't know if there is a protective ability, and if so what it is/how it interacts with them. He should know that and should have saved newcomb if he's a villager because newcomb is A) an obvious SPK and b) was cleared by the whole game and c) led the elim on a wolf. )

I think him being inverted and staying the 'same role' is kinda silly, and i kinda doubt that visor would make a role in a game with an inverter that would just ignore the ability, seems nonsensical. Or if he was actually inverted he's lying about what the inversion does (*cough cough* there was extra kp in the night)

I think his treatment of syn/raskol day 1 looks ESPECIALLY horrible now considering raskol flipped neutral (village essentially) and syn was a wolf. He was trying to get people off of syn multiple times based on raskol's read of syn, and voted raskol instead. Like ladd said yesterday, its pretty viable for wolf!jan to try to use villa!raskol's notoriously good read on syn to try to clear his wolf bro when raskol gets elimed. Obviously in this scenario raskol was a neutral but the logic still stands.

[Gemma]

reminder that raskol was a villager WRT vote logic (people who voted him EOD 1 over syn voted a villager wagon over a wolf wagon)

less so yesterday after the claim (because it was a weird claim and likely to be non villager after that) but people pushing him before the claim also were essentially pushing a villager.



btw I think that based on his card (the devil) he was likely an arsonist. He was neutral, flavor works well for that role, and it makes wisdom's role believable/likely villager.

Since no additional kp showed n1, makes arsonist more likely too.

i'm probably cool with soft clearing wisdom(and yes ofc a wolf firefighter with a neutral arsonist is possible but I don't think visor would give a wolf firefighter and not a villa firefighter, and then I assume that villa would have counterclaimed wisdom)

devil being arsonist makes obvious sense except rask was def true claiming his sheep shot

ig its possible he had vig shots as well as arson? i prefer not to speculate about role stuff personally

[theknightsofneeee]

devil being arsonist makes obvious sense except rask was def true claiming his sheep shot

ig its possible he had vig shots as well as arson? i prefer not to speculate about role stuff personally

I think its possible that raskol claimed the shot because no villager had claimed it and he thought it was wolf kp, and claiming the shot on sheep would let him live through the day (he was getting some traction on votes)

but can't really depend on his claims to be accurate because he was a neutral, and dya did claim a shot on sheep, so i'm just living in the simple world where dya's shot is the real shot and raskol just made up everything and was fake claiming to try and live through the day (the fact that he claimed a 2 shot vig is relevant because if he was an arsonist he would have to douse/ignite, so he was probably going to ignite n2 to 'prove' his kp)

but I just think firefighter is a random first role to claim if you're wisdom (afaik he was the first person to claim a role at all) which makes me more confident that its true as well.

[theknightsofneeee]

Who are you looking at for wolves today gemma?

i'm still working under the assumption you're a villa from EOD 1 so i'm down to potentially compromise on a shared wolf read

[Gemma]

ladd/wisdom/maple mainly

ender or not ender depending on what he claims

1 sec i'll make a readlist for u

v
dya
grr
-
insom
-
nee
jan
sunbae
dolby
-
mont
- null
neb
vanta
ender
-
wisdom
maple
-
ladd
w

[Vanta Black]

Eek, bloodbath. Okay I now think dya town and sorry about that bad vote.

[Vanta Black]

Ah fuck it. I can't be asked to wait.

I was jailkeeper and am now jailkeeper.
which is just very funny.

n1 protected stett (I expected Newcomb would only be targeted if wolves have strongman and stett was the dodgekill)
good chance that I actually got a protection on stett if we look at 3 kills tonight.

n2 protected dya in case they were bluffing about part of their role and are odd night vig).
this does tell us that dya did not do any of the kills inc ase anyone was paranoid for some reason.

what is the difference between jailkeeper and jailkeeper then?

[Vanta Black]

grr thank you for the vote history

would you mind spoilering it next time?

Seconding thanks for vote history

[Dolby]

Eek, bloodbath. Okay I now think dya town and sorry about that bad vote.

Hey Vanta

What are your strongest reads

Also just gonna say, assuming Rask is a solo, I personally am leaning to him being SK and his Sheep shot being real (he did say on D1 that Sheep was a slot he was pinged by fwiw). I just don’t think he claims the shot if he didn’t actually do it because as third party that’s just a game over for you no matter what if town believes your claim, or they don’t believe your claim: you aren’t getting to the end of the game because your shot is going to be CCed.

Him claiming two shot imo was an attempt to be accepted but not be a target for a mafia kill (mafia either roleblock him or leave him alone as someone without an action)

[Vanta Black]

Well, I actually am a Lover. But I'm not aligned with Rask.

Why did I lie about Rask? Chaos. He was dying, and shouldn't, but what was left. I also wanted to find out whether there would be a bandwagon effect on him. Also, Lovers have been some of my funniest roles.

I think stetter may have been arsoned. What was @Wisdom doing?

@Ender claimed to have targeted stetter N1 with an unspecified power, which needs elaboration.

Okay if stett was jailed by Jan n1 wouldn't this have prevented her being ignited?

Also, do lovers get to pick or is it kind of an arranged marriage? (Have never been in lover's game)

Could Ender's thing have blocked the jailkeeping?

[Vanta Black]

You're never gonna believe me but I actually haven't lied about a single thing this game.

You haven't lied but any more "joke posts" like the one about the despo?

[Vanta Black]

i dont really feel much validation for my play but i'm happy we're (seemingly) winning and im being carried over the finish line and i'm glad i made it this far because yea, i feel like we only ever get to do this in turbs and i finally have a looser schedule this week to really focus and dig in and im eager to see what you got and what we can figure out together

ARe we though?

[Dolby]

The joke post was pretty recognizable to anyone in or spectating d4 of anni (which is like 1/2 of the game), I think it’s fine and not something to dunk on (though Maple is still a wolf and can go today)

[Vanta Black]

Hey Vanta

What are your strongest reads

Also just gonna say, assuming Rask is a solo, I personally am leaning to him being SK and his Sheep shot being real (he did say on D1 that Sheep was a slot he was pinged by fwiw). I just don’t think he claims the shot if he didn’t actually do it because as third party that’s just a game over for you no matter what if town believes your claim, or they don’t believe your claim: you aren’t getting to the end of the game because your shot is going to be CCed.

Him claiming two shot imo was an attempt to be accepted but not be a target for a mafia kill (mafia either roleblock him or leave him alone as someone without an action)

Well that was quite an EOD2 wasn't it? I feel like maybe if he was SK he would have had more than two shots (could have lied about that too though) and it sounds like maybe you doubt that too. Kinda seems like it's game over for you though even if you do claim the shot. As was the case.

Have not really updated my reads, although I did read sunbae and insomnia as two who just didn't stand out to me. Sunbae I still don't know. The thing is, pretty much everybody sounds okay as far as tone. Nebjiamn is pinging me with his "we are winning" post because it seems the opposite, but I don't wanna be a doomsayer on D3. Jan's claim is kinda bothering me too, and he was one of my strongest TRs.

[Gemma]

Okay if stett was jailed by Jan n1 wouldn't this have prevented her being ignited?

Also, do lovers get to pick or is it kind of an arranged marriage? (Have never been in lover's game)

Could Ender's thing have blocked the jailkeeping?

arranged

[Vanta Black]

The joke post was pretty recognizable to anyone in or spectating d4 of anni (which is like 1/2 of the game), I think it’s fine and not something to dunk on (though Maple is still a wolf and can go today)

Okay, I will not dunk on it again then. Thanks.

[Vanta Black]

Fluff: it appears I need to upgrade my visual game here, probably starting with the pfp (that is what you young'uns call the avatar, right?) I resolve to do that as soon as this game is over. Don't expect any GIFs.

[Dolby]

Vanta what do you think of the current thread consensus that the four wolfiest people are Maple, Wisdom, Ladd, and Ender? And the less consensus read that Montmorency had potential to be a neutral teammed with Rask?

Tbh I’m struggling to think of a person who’s checked in today besides you who has major scumreads out of those first four names

I’d be interested in seeing your overall view of the game at some point today

[nebjiamn]

ARe we though?

look at it this way:

of the available village KP (including the elim + vigs that we know of), we have only missed once and it was on a Poe slot/overlapped with the likely shot of the neut (only saying ‘likely’ cause ppl are floating the idea of devil being an arsonist but I am skeptical)

Killing a wolf may have been better yesterday, especially if we could hit their kp, but we might still be staring at another villa death from rasks kill in that case, or even a 4th overnight death (tbf he also may have shot a wolf)

basicallt what I’m saying is we’re winning in day play for sure. And in night actions, from what we know, we’re still doing pretty well all things considered. If we keep at it like this and find a way to lose then the setup is broken or we are being SEVERELY outplayed at night but that doesn’t feel that way to me rn

[Montmorency]

I think jan not saving newcomb is somewhat inexcusable if he was a protective (its a closed setup, you don't assume that wolves are gonna medic dodge from the obvious kill because they don't know if there is a protective ability, and if so what it is/how it interacts with them. He should know that and should have saved newcomb if he's a villager because newcomb is A) an obvious SPK and b) was cleared by the whole game and c) led the elim on a wolf. )

I think him being inverted and staying the 'same role' is kinda silly, and i kinda doubt that visor would make a role in a game with an inverter that would just ignore the ability, seems nonsensical. Or if he was actually inverted he's lying about what the inversion does (*cough cough* there was extra kp in the night)

I think his treatment of syn/raskol day 1 looks ESPECIALLY horrible now considering raskol flipped neutral (village essentially) and syn was a wolf. He was trying to get people off of syn multiple times based on raskol's read of syn, and voted raskol instead. Like ladd said yesterday, its pretty viable for wolf!jan to try to use villa!raskol's notoriously good read on syn to try to clear his wolf bro when raskol gets elimed. Obviously in this scenario raskol was a neutral but the logic still stands.

Why wasn't Stett a more obvious SPK? More consensus towny posting, and led the Syn wagon just as much. I agree on Jan suss more broadly. But I have no idea what inverter is supposed to mean here either way, and no one else seems to have a clear idea either.

Rask was not fakeclaiming for giggles. There is no reason for Maf not to NK him after that claim. Maybe not immediately, but he doesn't survive. Do you believe he was holding an unlimited BP? My only SK rand had unlimited BP, but I'm pretty sure that's not a setup seen since the old-school days. Or maybe, you think he deliberately wanted to eat a NK to help out Town?

Dolby, make sure to press for claims on Maple's gift. I know what I said, but it's important to get that specific aspect confirmed if we're just going to pile on him like we did with Rask.

[Sunbae]

Ok so to start lets get some things we know down:

A. From the wolves pov we know they thought Rask was town. This is relevant not just for eod1 wagon analysis but also eod2 analysis where wolves were thinking we were chopping a town vig. When rereading eod1 (which I will be doing shortly) we have known info that there were wagons on Sheep (villa), Rask (villa from wolf pov), and Syn (wolf). When rereading yesterday, I want to look at which players were posting in a way to look good after town Rask vig flips at eod.

B. There are quite a few claims and the game can turn mechanical pretty easily but I want to use mechanical claims to supplement reads on actual posting rather than making reads based on the claims. None of the claims are really verifiable without flips and frankly they all sound kind of convoluted to begin with so trying to figure out what's real and what's made up just isn't really my cup of tea. Would prefer to just use all the known flips to judge people on their own and then use mechanics to tilt us in once direction or another if its close.

C. I'm of the belief that things have been going well enough thus far (2 kills out of 2 chops is as much as you could hope for) but today - now that we have 7 alignments - should see a fair amount of shake ups in reads lists. Use what we have so far as a starting point but don't be afraid to shake it up. There's enough info now we should have the ability to make good reads for good reasons instead of vibe checks and mostly meta.



My plans for this game day are:
- reread eod1
- focus on the wagons we know results of, figure out who was moving where
- pay attention to dead villagers and their pushes during these times. lots of good players in this game so want to pay extra attention to why they died over others
- reread post Dya claim day 2
- focus on reactions and who seems gung ho about killing rask vs those that want to look good for the next day
- form a towncore
- use said towncore to pore over the thread and help sort the game
- be annoyed at myself for not just shitposting and vibing still
- brains be weird
- sort through any mechanical thing that bothers me
- get a full reads list with in depth explanations for each player
- hope thats good enough to win

[theknightsofneeee]

Why wasn't Stett a more obvious SPK? More consensus towny posting, and led the Syn wagon just as much. I agree on Jan suss more broadly. But I have no idea what inverter is supposed to mean here either way, and no one else seems to have a clear idea either.

Rask was not fakeclaiming for giggles. There is no reason for Maf not to NK him after that claim. Maybe not immediately, but he doesn't survive. Do you believe he was holding an unlimited BP? My only SK rand had unlimited BP, but I'm pretty sure that's not a setup seen since the old-school days. Or maybe, you think he deliberately wanted to eat a NK to help out Town?

Dolby, make sure to press for claims on Maple's gift. I know what I said, but it's important to get that specific aspect confirmed if we're just going to pile on him like we did with Rask.

when i say 'spk' I mean 'strong player kill' which has the connotation of meaning 'nightkill someone who is a very strong villager who will clear themselves and is likely to solve the game if cleared/alive in lylo'. And while didistetter is definitely able to clear themselves, they are still a relatively new player, at least relative to this player list, so they wouldn't be someone i would typically kill n1, normally it would be like ladd/benneh/sunbae/newcomb in this player list IMO (which is why three of the four still being alive is worrying).

In the world that i'm talking about (raskol = neut arsonist) he was fake claiming villa kp to possibly escape elim (several people who were possible wagons were claiming, he was a viable wagon, he would be able to demonstrate KP n2 if he was an arsonist). Obviously it would potentially limit his lifespan but a) if you get elimed you're dead anyways lol and b)arsonists more often than not are neutral.

I think most people are overthinking it ATM.

And yes i'm kinda using wisdom's claim to decide he's an arsonist, but wisdom claiming firefighter and then having a neutral flip that day seems too wild for me to doubt IMO. And since there wasn't a counter claim to firefighter I think wisdom is essentially always villa because it seems unlikely the setup would be just a wolf firefighter. (and even if there was a weird setup where that was the case, Wisdom wouldn't know that was the setup, and would have to assume he would get counterclaimed by a villa firefighter, and therefore wouldn't claim like he did)



One thing I failed to consider is that since there was only 2 kp shown n1 (and dya claims the shot on sheep) its technically possible that Jan did get a save on didistetter n1. the death of didistetter n2 might also make sense in that context because they killed didi after a saved kill n1.

that would be a lot of kp in a 22 person game tbh, but depending on the setup its possible.

[Vanta Black]

Vanta what do you think of the current thread consensus that the four wolfiest people are Maple, Wisdom, Ladd, and Ender? And the less consensus read that Montmorency had potential to be a neutral teammed with Rask?

Tbh I’m struggling to think of a person who’s checked in today besides you who has major scumreads out of those first four names

I’d be interested in seeing your overall view of the game at some point today

I am kinda anti-consensus but I will weigh in on those four.

A little less interested in Wisdom today, I thought her claim was skeevy but somebody mentioned that Rask could've been an arsonist. Or there could be a scum arsonist. I'm a little more interested in Maple. Ender I always think as scummy (he has played, as Bladescape, on the Giraffe boards--you probably knew that--so I'm more familiar with him than with most names here). I want to hear more about his N1 claim. I'd have to look at ladd again, and I will.

Theknightsofnee has checked in and voted Jan btw so that is one other player who has a scumread outside of those 4.

I think that Montmorency has the potential to be teamed with Rask, but I don't think he is. I don't have a lot of experience with teamed 3Ps, and by that I mean I have just never seen them.

Kind of offtopic: This is the third Tarot-themed mafia game I have played. The other two were open, as in, we knew what the cards did, just not who had which cards or which cards would be drawn.

[Wisdom]

N2 Results:

ColonelLubriderm was killed.

They were:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Hermit



They were village!

-----

Arctic was killed.

They were:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Death



They were village!

-----

Didistetter was killed.

They were:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Hanged Man



They were village!

-----

48 hours for day.




Don't post till 9pm EDT.

Oooof what

[theknightsofneeee]

I get that people hate making pure setup/mechanical reads WRT clearing people.

but I think the logic of 'why would wolf!wisdom claim firefighter if he would reasonably expect to get counterclaimed? and there is no way he could reasonably know there was an actual neutral in the game prior to raskol flip' logic is pretty sound and IMO clearing for wisdom.

I'll see if I can supplement it with a reads based reason to villa read wisdom as well but they seem like the obvious mislynch that people are pushing unnecessarily atm.

[Wisdom]

Work starts today so I'll be back in a bit
I thought Rask was arsonist but wtf are those kills then

[nebjiamn]

Ok so to start lets get some things we know down:

A. From the wolves pov we know they thought Rask was town. This is relevant not just for eod1 wagon analysis but also eod2 analysis where wolves were thinking we were chopping a town vig. When rereading eod1 (which I will be doing shortly) we have known info that there were wagons on Sheep (villa), Rask (villa from wolf pov), and Syn (wolf). When rereading yesterday, I want to look at which players were posting in a way to look good after town Rask vig flips at eod.

B. There are quite a few claims and the game can turn mechanical pretty easily but I want to use mechanical claims to supplement reads on actual posting rather than making reads based on the claims. None of the claims are really verifiable without flips and frankly they all sound kind of convoluted to begin with so trying to figure out what's real and what's made up just isn't really my cup of tea. Would prefer to just use all the known flips to judge people on their own and then use mechanics to tilt us in once direction or another if its close.

C. I'm of the belief that things have been going well enough thus far (2 kills out of 2 chops is as much as you could hope for) but today - now that we have 7 alignments - should see a fair amount of shake ups in reads lists. Use what we have so far as a starting point but don't be afraid to shake it up. There's enough info now we should have the ability to make good reads for good reasons instead of vibe checks and mostly meta.



My plans for this game day are:
- reread eod1
- focus on the wagons we know results of, figure out who was moving where
- pay attention to dead villagers and their pushes during these times. lots of good players in this game so want to pay extra attention to why they died over others
- reread post Dya claim day 2
- focus on reactions and who seems gung ho about killing rask vs those that want to look good for the next day
- form a towncore
- use said towncore to pore over the thread and help sort the game
- be annoyed at myself for not just shitposting and vibing still
- brains be weird
- sort through any mechanical thing that bothers me
- get a full reads list with in depth explanations for each player
- hope thats good enough to win

Pondering this post while I eat cup noodle and fully loaded nachos

[theknightsofneeee]

if i had to guess death flavor would probably be kp

THIS SEEMS IMPORTANT BTW

arctic flipped death

[theknightsofneeee]

vote: Raskolnikov

i have my reasons lol siw

i remembered that arctic flipped death and was like 'hmm that sounds an awful like it could be kp'

then i remembered this post (which felt like he was lynching someone who claimed vig when he was vig)

kept looking through his posts and found the other one.


arctic probably shot either bop/didi then, looking through his posts to try and find out, but I doubt it was didi

[nebjiamn]

i remembered that arctic flipped death and was like 'hmm that sounds an awful like it could be kp'

then i remembered this post (which felt like he was lynching someone who claimed vig when he was vig)

kept looking through his posts and found the other one.


arctic probably shot either bop/didi then, looking through his posts to try and find out, but I doubt it was didi

I think he had bop v but I’m on phone and can’t check

its also possible he targeted maple, who he sus quite a bit and died to a pgo/reflexive mill