Tarot Mafia

[Maple]

This is certainly one of the d2s of all time.

I'm going to be real the only claim im going to clear without merit is ender.

And because people somehow STILL asking, I'm going to be sending a player a card today which they will receive at EoD. I'm not saying who I'm sending it to because if I did and that player is killed in the night, I'm definitely getting voted out tomorrow. So I simply need to not stack with the kill. I also don't know what the card will do, outside of *guessing*. Hence me picking 10 of Swords d1, since it seemed the most likely to give me a shot.

It's presumably better to kill outside the vigis, though only rask can really resolve dya, and he can always just claim RBd tomorrow, so ya know how it is.

As far as reads go, who fucking knows I still havent processed the like 8 fuckin claims and how that impacts my worldview. I fuck with killing some random person who isn't claiming just to let shit sort itself out to an extent, though ff isn't exactly a claim that's doing that anytime soon sadly.

In conclusion:

lol
lmao

[Arctic]

ok why would wolf rask someone else's shot knowing he'd get cc'ed, that early on and when he wasn't even the consensus elim?

[didistetter]

it's not a bad thing because we can analyze wagons

@dyachei
@Arctic
@didistetter
@Vanta Black
@nebjiamn.
@Sunbae
@Raskolnikov
@ladd
@Jan
@Gemma
@grr
@EnderWiggin
@insomnia
@Wisdom
@Syn
@ColonelLubriderm
@Maple
@Montmorency
@Dolby

OK I actually realised I have one post left:

check the timestamps of the posts I linked in #2071 and realise dya is just sacrifying their wolfy butt to evade the shot on a maf (I said I'd shoot in Maple/Wisdom after claiming).

Their presumed breadcrumbing is even AFTER my claim lol. Mine literally started at SOD smh. How do u people, out of all ww players do not see that smh? How can u let dya go away with this s!%? !!!!

fgs come on village. get ur ww sensor back on. Wisdom is even lolcating before going to bed arglll.

dya and minimum one of WIsdom/Maple are outed. (I think they are all actually maf so GG)


Frankly get dya because they actually deserve it or get one of the other two lolcatting slots and trust my shot to actually hit. glgl friendos

uh lol.

this is wolfy

i was kinda find following mont but

you literally read what i said and spun it in the wolfiest way possible

dya had a kinda petualant reaction sod to me being pissy about the sheep kill, and said it was good for wagonomics, and you fully ignored me insulting the vig for like 6 posts.

1 post left

@Visor could we get a vc pls?

Vote: Raskolnikov

[Arctic]

claims

wisdom- firefighter 2-shot
maple- some kind of PR+ now has a PGO 1-shot
jan- some kind of PR
rasko- 2 shot vig, killed sheep
ender- some kind of pr who targetted didi
ColonelLubriderm-VT


if i was going to kill in the claims i'd kill wisdom

i think rasko is always a villa.

PGO means if someone targets them they die right?

dya you were literally in the thread when this got posted btw

[Maple]

ok why would wolf rask someone else's shot knowing he'd get cc'ed, that early on and when he wasn't even the consensus elim?

The only reason for a wolf to claim the sheep shot is A) get the real vigi to out B) they actually made that shot and dont expect to be CCd

A only works vs a restricted vigi, though.

[Dolby]

i think Rask and Wisdom can both be wolves

maybe Maple to but idk I'm warming up to Maple

[dyachei]

dya you were literally in the thread when this got posted btw

He was probably working on it before the cc

[Arctic]

sorry @Maple

so just to clarify: you gave yourself the 10 of Swords which = 1 shot nerfed PGO with your own role, and then also someone else inverted you, which you then pretended to not know what means in response to me while then admitting you knew what it meant later

so: are you basically claiming PGO inventor who got inverted so you ended up giving the PGO to yourself?

if so, how is that self confirmable?

reading this again i am perfectly happy to just fuck the claims and kill maple but i think it's pretty unlikely rask's role is real so i don't mind if we stick the course

[Maple]

yeah im over trying to think about all of this bullshit lets just kill someone

[Montmorency]

Most of us seem to believe that one way or another, 2-3 maf are fakeclaiming today. Half or most of the team in standard distribution. For disclosure I can see 2 fs.

Tough row to hoe though.

[ColonelLubriderm]

i think i have one more post but fuck it;

dya claims her shot can't work if sheep was targetted so we have to have one wolf between the two;

im fine going rasko>dya because i don't think dya going for the 1-1 with one teammatto already down makes sense in any world and if this is a wolf play by dya; so be it, we get them tomorrow;

then we come into the next day with more info regardless and a clearer space of the world we live in

vote: rasko

i have 1 left after this

[Montmorency]

Somehow EOD feels less YOLO and more "death march to bullying Biden into dropping out", to use that reference point. High risk/reward, as they say.

So be it indeed.

(50 post cap with EOD lift has proved more appropriate for the Org by the by)

[ColonelLubriderm]

I counted and after this post i have one more;
@dyachei

Do you know if your shot went off? Is it possible your action failed because he targetted sheep with his action and you are both villagers?

if the answer to this question isn't Yes; then we should go outside of rasko because i think it is possible they are both villas;

I believe dyachei and i think its possible both could villas;

also i dont think maple can clear himself; at best he can just confirm that he hands out cards. however i'd not kill them because the effect of said card could be spicy

vote: wisdom

[Dolby]

I want this as a wagon

Vote: Wisdom

[dyachei]

I counted and after this post i have one more;
@dyachei

Do you know if your shot went off? Is it possible your action failed because he targetted sheep with his action and you are both villagers?

if the answer to this question isn't Yes; then we should go outside of rasko because i think it is possible they are both villas;

I believe dyachei and i think its possible both could villas;

also i dont think maple can clear himself; at best he can just confirm that he hands out cards. however i'd not kill them because the effect of said card could be spicy

vote: wisdom

I'm not certain so yes it's possible my shot didn't go off

[Arctic]

idt leaving the dya/rask dichotomy alone today helps solve anything

lets say dya is v and rask is w -- he's locked himself into shooting them and if dya dies and flips town (along with another NK or two) we are stuck in the same dichotomy tomorrow and have to sort out whether to solve him

the only chance for this dichotomy to resolve by ignoring would be if he shoots a wolf (either dya or someone else) and i dont think the former is particularly likely, nor is the latter based on his conviction here

and on top of that idt the way he's approached dya's 'cc' is villagery, both in terms of consideration for dya's role/intent and also for the way he claimed he had conditionals in his last 2 posts but refused to elaborate after being called out on the potential conditional nature of roles ITG after dya's claim

not to mention we're like, already relying on the hope that maple will be 'self-resolving' with equally stilted clarity and claims and now ppl wana double down on that instead of just occam's razoring it here and killing one of the two players most likely to be wolf if we ignore mechanics (which, it seems, we almost certainly should because the game is confirmed role heavy!!!!! and the mechanics are otherwise unknown to everyone but the wolves who can otherwise take advantage of this)

@Dolby they could both be v since rask's shot could have gone through and dya's didn't
but i find that unlikely for reasons
and also, this post makes the most sense to me rn
rask's posts didn't consider a town dya world and didn't say anything about how every role so far seems to be conditional at least to an extent

but even if we let him live and he shoots dya (who is probably town regardless) that.. doesn't really resolve him
if it was 2-shot that he claimed, i mean

[Montmorency]

Wisdom is in my team solve, but more by association to the core team than anything I can remember of her play. Her claim is meatier than anyone but the vigs'.

Let's see what happens.

Vote: Wisdom

[Arctic]

u are all annoying since u apparently can't read the thread. I killed sheep smh. have another shot.

is this rask claiming specifically 2-shot vig?
i don't think miskilling him is really the end of the world then
ngl i was mainly panicking cuz i wasn't sure if he claimed ungated
i think being 2 shot is a fine conditional? idk

[Dolby]

@Dolby they could both be v since rask's shot could have gone through and dya's didn't
but i find that unlikely for reasons
and also, this post makes the most sense to me rn
rask's posts didn't consider a town dya world and didn't say anything about how every role so far seems to be conditional at least to an extent

but even if we let him live and he shoots dya (who is probably town regardless) that.. doesn't really resolve him
if it was 2-shot that he claimed, i mean

I stand by my previous post, and heck I have some posts on Dya/Rask, but I do think I want Wisdom in contention. Wisdom's claim is whack and, tbh in retro my reasons for townreading her and Rask on Syn spew sucked and were probably influenced by me feeling like needing to get into the game immediately. I also think that Wisdom's worldview just doesn't make sense

Rask is a good elim to though. Would be interested in seeing a VC. I want to save a few posts for the last half hour.

[Arctic]

and before someone says no i don't think he's town but what i'm saying is i don't really feel like acting like it's joever if he is and we kill him

[Dolby]

is this rask claiming specifically 2-shot vig?
i don't think miskilling him is really the end of the world then
ngl i was mainly panicking cuz i wasn't sure if he claimed ungated
i think being 2 shot is a fine conditional? idk

yeah the only thing that looks good about it is that he's claiming under pressure and in response to Stett calling Dya the vig

but Dya is just the vig

[Arctic]

@Visor can we get a vc

the good thing about being afk all day is now i can freely spam and not care

[Dolby]

I'm also concerned that I've been misreading Ender but also I don't like his Benneh push, and I feel he's been a bit uncharitable to me as a replacement who still hasn't fully read but tbf I've been a bit uncharitiable to him

[Montmorency]

TALLY #2153


Raskolnikov 7 (EnderWiggin, dyachei, Dolby, Wisdom, grr, nebjiamn, didistetter)
Wisdom 3 (Colonel Lubriderm, Dolby, Montmorency)
dyachei 2 (Vanta Black, Raskolnikov)
Maple 2 (Gemma, insomnia)
Dolby 1 (Maple)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
Montmorency 1 (Ladd)

[Arctic]

guess i'm just gonna use this time to talk about some other things

i don't like wisdom's post about the situation regardless of what rask is (i think dya is town either way imo, claim matches too well with what they've been crumbing previously + no real reason to claim here). it feels like TMI that rask is a wolf here, or even if he isn't the lack of real consideration about what's going on doesn't feel great

i haven't spoken about grr yet today but i want it known that i am +1'ing all of the lock town meta reads on him - he is a much more binary player as a wolf and it would be a lot more obvious. he isn't really capable of replicating the back and forth he's had over his reads and his doubt/paranoia on stuff. i can't describe it very well and these all feel like buzzwords, but he is a pretty idiosyncratic player and the way he's been parsing this game particularly with the frustration over being ignored on the newcomb push + his indignation in interactions with rask today are just from town him. i would not reconsider this read until lylo

insomnia's posts are also just too good, even if ladd is town i don't care i just feel like he's been the only person in the group of "strong players" who's been seriously getting his hands dirty and actually parsing that group, would maybe reconsider like the day before lylo but i doubt it. same applies to stett, she has a particular way of questioning people as town where i can tell she cares about the response and her follow ups have been proof of this

i'm actually less sure on ladd being a wolf now that i think wisdom is probably a wolf which is ironic given the earlier sentiment expressed, but ladd was the first person to call out wisdom's claim as probably fake iirc so it's worth thinking about. i would expect at least one between them though

i was going to say that after colonel's post transcripting the neighborhood chat i would have locked him as town but learning that was all fake kind of gave me whiplash and also scares me a little in terms of implications for how good his wolfgame is knowing he can fake all that. i haven't had many other thoughts on his posts today. i'd re-visit him like.. tomorrow, honestly? maybe the day after

sunbae i am kinda townreading cuz i honestly just believe the unconvincing self-meta wall. like they expected it to be not convincing if they are a wolf. when i'm town i have a habit of doing the same thing and just posting it anyway because i know it's true, and i don't bother so much when i'm a wolf. i also don't really feel like they have an agenda and the restless urge to do something that strong wolf players have tends to be pretty hard to ignore, and that's what he's done this game if he is a wolf. i find it much easier to just be happy about doing nothing when i'm town than when i'm a wolf, most people probably know this feeling too. is this gonna stop you guys killing him later - probably not, and i don't expect it to either, so this one is more of a hero townread that i fully expect you guys to ignore

montmorency actually, uh, yeah still no clue honestly. i find his posting very null. i've seen the arguments about his eod1 seeming uninformed and there seems to be some meta involved which i nodded along to, but i think this may need to be reconsidered if rask is a wolf too

benneh i think kinda falls into a similar place to sunbae for me (quite unhelpful, i know) but i don't really think the way he's playing is super sustainable as a wolf? i know that like, no one is really trying to kill him but going back to the restless urge thing, it seems like if he is a wolf he's perfectly happy about just letting villagers clear each other which is inevitably going to result in his untimely boxing in. dunno. i think he's had fine posts today, i don't agree with the ender push but i think his last push on rask seemed the most grounded thing presented today. i'm running out of people to call a wolf though so uhm i guess he's just a wolf anyway. rip!

think i've more or less spoken about everyone else

i have found knights and gemma distinctly unimpressive today (moreso knights, i still believe gemma is spewed) but if we keep missing killing people who aren't either of these two, the world where all of the wagons on day 1 were wolves is worth considering, because wolves stacking on syn there is like, pretty a pretty reasonable explanation for things. so re-visit them if the above people keep flipping town i guess

but as it stands my poe would probably be

jan (replace with colonel if rask is wolf)
dolby
mont
vanta
benneh
ladd
maple
wisdom
rask

[Visor]

Players Votes

Raskolnikov 6 (EnderWiggin, dyachei, Wisdom, grr, nebjiamn, Didistetter)
Wisdom 3 (ColonelLubriderm, Dolby, Montmorency)
dyachei 2 (Vanta Black, Raskolnikov)
Maple 2 (Gemma, insomnia)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
Montmorency 1 (Ladd)
Dolby 1 (Maple)

[Dolby]

fwiw Arctic, I think your bottom 4 (Rask-Wisdom-Maple-Ladd) could be the team

[theknightsofneeee]

okay genuinely so sorry for today guys, its just been crazy irl with my 30th bday dinner and drinking last night and my parents just threw a surprise pool party for me at their house today.

just got home gonna speedrun solving for a bit

mostly skimmed to present

saw wisdom claim firefighter

jan claimed pr

raskol 2shot vig

dya claim vig

anything I missed?

[Montmorency]

I didn't catch all the duplicates in the tally...

okay genuinely so sorry for today guys, its just been crazy irl with my 30th bday dinner and drinking last night and my parents just threw a surprise pool party for me at their house today.

just got home gonna speedrun solving for a bit

mostly skimmed to present

saw wisdom claim firefighter

jan claimed pr

raskol 2shot vig

dya claim vig

anything I missed?

Rask and dya at each other's throats.

Maple has a very complex claim that I'm not sure how to summarize. Here are a few links.
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053858825
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053858752
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053858812
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053858969

[dyachei]

okay genuinely so sorry for today guys, its just been crazy irl with my 30th bday dinner and drinking last night and my parents just threw a surprise pool party for me at their house today.

just got home gonna speedrun solving for a bit

mostly skimmed to present

saw wisdom claim firefighter

jan claimed pr

raskol 2shot vig

dya claim vig

anything I missed?

I'm one shot conditional vog