@insomnia want some help/input? ( xD )
it's so rough with ladd
here's tha thang. i've done numerous posts on why i think he's a wolf, which, objectively, i just feel are correct. im not sure someone can disagree or fight against it, not even ladd himself. the facts are that he hasn't had a solid push yet past d1, and the ones on d1 were all wrong. the only unflipped we don't know about is gemma
however, he kinda makes up for that by just having really solid villa reads at the right time. i feel like, if anything, this should be the reason he's being villa read, not anything else.
but there's simply something lacking in his play and i think it's that he'd already have a clear direction that we can all see through his pushing. the fact he keeps hammering down on the villa reads instead of pushing for wolves in this spot is also a big grievance of mine, although that maybe is a bit unfair
he's just an amazing player so it's hard to really put it into words beyond just a feeling he's not having the village's interest at heart. he feels really calculated and cunning in his posting, like he's avoiding stepping on eggshells.
now my tinfoil is that, in a ladd wolf world, he's actually a strong PR / KP for them. this would explain his positioning on syn, basically never attempting to defend a teammate that's under heat but he also doesn't want to hard push him because then he'd need an answer for why he's alive. that's why it bugs me why he's only stating village reads and doing no pushing. also, it's really easy and safe to distance from Syn because idt he's ever had a game where he doesn't die early as wolf (no offense). he did all the right things, pocketing newcomb and poking at villas on d1, but this is why i hate he isn't just running a train across his wolf reads.
i guess this is my problem, his posts just don't seem that villagery to me, but positioning wise he just looks good. and i guess it's also a game state type of read where i'd expect him to have some reads and push them rn that he simply isn't concerned with
i feel like he tried to throw small punches at villas all game, pocket certain players and once he got his footing in, he just stuck to villa reading anti-consensus players for cred, because pushing people would be harder or he'd even be forced to bus if we're doing good, maybe. i just really need to see him push people and why
I kinda want to flip ladd now before Wisdom, though I may feel differently if Ladd comes in with a solid bite someone
But like, Maple/Ladd/Wisdom just makes sense to me? And I do feel that Ender can fit in with that group
Yeah I have something insomnia.
let me show u the entire Wisdom progression on ladd here:
(this one is my favorite so i made it bigger)
Here's the thing. I think Wisdom is a wolf who decided to not bus this game (a bird whispered to me once she generally decides pregame if she wants to bus or not and then sticks with it. i have seen this once myself). She is pretty stuck with their solving because of that, she needs to protect her wolfpals which is why her reads have pretty strange focus either on slots that gonna resolve soon anyway like Rask or Maple, or on slots that are pretty much dead-ends to sus into, stetter and me. recently she is kinda distancing from ladd but also still somewhat reluctant on it because she is the one who wants to end up being bussed, not vice versa.
thots? @insomnia
I hope you are a bit wary of the fact that u will get nightkilled next and i will become randomly MLable and i also tend to get lost when i lose my towncore. (a lot have already died and the people remaining start nibbling at my toes.). lmao. (i'll try my best tho no worries)
also, no idea what maple is cooking tbh. he also claims to be potentially pocketed by ladd and is confused by wisdom which is funny af if they are both wolves.
fwiw on the matter IH is that she can be teammed with ladd still and that I still sus her overall worldview yesterday which had Jan/rask at the top and me/gemma/vanta at the bottom. I don't really like the directions they have chosen to go a lot of the game until today
While I suppose I should put in more effort into clearing Gemma, I think that Jan/Rask both at the top of their reads is a discongrous worldview. I like their d3 better, and they are voting Maple now, but Maple is kind of a forced vote and that's not saying much, but uh, maybe I am not reading that last post clearly but that really looks like they are using ladd/maple not w/w to justify shading Gemma, and it kind of does give them space to get back off of Maple and on to Gemma later, but I can't believe that Wisdom thinks wagons today aren't going to be Wisdom/Maple anyway?
If the ladd pocket post had come at any point on day two I would like it a lot, but it doesn't. It's coming on d3 when options are narrowing and ladd is in the crossfires pretty solidily now. And also like, when has ladd pocketed Wisdom? Maybe I've missed something but they've interacted noramlly but infrequently as far as I can recall. Would have to read back for that to evaluate as well
also from what i have seen people are COMPLETELY dropping everyones legacies immediately so you'll also be forgotten the minute ur dead. xD I cant recall anyone ever referring to a legacy (it probably happened once or twice I struggle to be aware of everything).
(which is also kinda a subtle hint to me that dead villa legacies are probs decent).
don't think he did really (at least not recently, I think d1 there was a bit of good attitude from ladd's side at least) but its just the kinda thing wolves say about their wolfbuddy when they decided to change course.
gonna have to leave I need to focus a bit on cooking irl. honestly I have not thought much about the detailed shade they would be doing wrt gemma ngl. I am just seeing a general vibe there wrt ladd.
(I have not caught up and will not be catching up rn. Just about to drive to work.)
@Sunbae
Will you be around about 4 or 5 hours from now?
Was thinking last night in bed about liking your follow on to your 'campaign promises' and woke up feeling like realtiming with you might be best way to get my brain on about you instead of waving flags like an F1 lap announcer.
Pls ping with response. Ty <3
yeah ih, i've read wisdom's posts where before, i'll be honest, i straight up ignored them
Not because i don't like their posts but only because I knew that if I did read them, i'd always come to the conclusion they're a wolf. Mostly because i was skimming all the time on forums and just always thought to myself "how are you supposed to villa read them?" but i really really hate some of the posts that i did end up reading
I guess your point adds up to my tinfoil of ladd being the KP. but in a ladd / maple / wisdom world they're all simply doomed
I think the most odd part is that their turnaround on ladd seems really abrupt
And what do you mean you don't have a reason to think they're pocketing you, if I make that call i have at least one reason why i think they could be a wolf, and based off that i'd deduce they were pocketing me
But if the meta you have is legit then i could see it. Their susses are 0/3 fmpov, it was gemma / vanta and who else? Just doesn't seem like the place to be in right now, but im not some werewolf guru and i could be wrong /shrug
Gemma's iso is really not impressive, but EoD1 is a pretty good look for them as it is
as it stands
Jan / dya probably legit villas imo and are the roles they claim. if arctic is somehow KP that killed sheep and didn't jump in then we just lol at him
Grr is meta very likely villager
Ender is villagery and also claims PR. gonna wifom this line to say he's the inverter role off PoE but it could be someone else hehe
Dolby is just posting villagery for me.
These two people I have as connected: Knights was a strong bop read and I also like that he focuses on jan / ladd and Gemma isn't really as villagery as I've seen of them, but I can't deny EoD1 is good for them. If ladd / wisdom / maple doesn't flip several wolves, then I guess here could be the disconnect and we were living in a "wolves got clapped early and we cleared them without knowing we were wagonning wolves". However, it felt like an EoD where wolves weren't active to me
Benneh / sunbae no real thoughts
Vanta Black I kinda feel like is a villager. As a wolf I think they'd succumb to the pressure that is this game and be really stilted and wolfy
Which leaves
Maple / ladd / wisdom / montmorency
ladd / maple / wisdom are top priority for me. in the ideal world this is 3/3, but probably 2/3. If it's 1/3 then i'd be a little worried
benneh / sunbae probably has 1. this having 2 is probably unlikely
if the above is very wrong, gemma / knights prob has 1 if not 2, but i doubt the above is too wrong
montmorency i need to read
another point against wisdom is that they had a typical progression from a wolf that will n1 newcomb
"blanket of comfort, he vibes really nice, good for you newcomb, wallposts really suck!"
if they are a villager though then I guess good job, but them not elaborating on it is hard to see it as genuine
While I am at it.
Wisdoms progression on Sunbae:
(btw now that i come across this just saying my handling of rask was actually villagery af its clear i was confused about getting my top townread in a CC from someone who shouldnt be a wolf by how the claim went down and then decided to be convinced he is a wolf him after he made the wolfiest post in the entire thread, which shows i have no TMI and read also him exactly like what he was: a serial killer (probably). also makes no sense for me as wolf to push him there cuz if i was a wolf rask is a villa who announced to kill a (likely? dunno) villa tonight).
I have. less to say about this except it also fits the same pattern as with ladd without having a post that struck me as mega pingy. However her tossing sunbae and knights and sunbae and insomnia in bins kinda seems, weird to me as first of all they arent similar at all and second of all it just kinda feels like it's conceiling spew to me. (btw the "knights towny but not unfakeable" rubbed me the wrong in general its kind of half of a vanity thing ig cuz people are obv free to not share every read i make i just didnt like my TR there to be shot down that way.). I dont think Sunbae ever answered Wisdom about prodding about the no-voting and she forgot about it lol (which is also not damning god knows all the shit i forgot to follow up on in this game just a thing i noticed)
can you quote their progression on newcomb?
pretty sure they were "vibing with him" when all he did was to ask sheep 3 questions and not much else
first time wolfing against the village goat just puts wolves in that mode of pocketing him out of hope that they can be overlooked for just 1 day until they can kill him
and with that I monologued enough. not sure im gonna do anything else, you all have the floor
i have an interview in about 10 hours so im slep
I think legacy wise everyone disliked maple (i hope he flips town cuz its funnier then), and everyone but sheep who TRed her didn't like wisdom, very broadly. (Newcomb had her as ???? or something he had other focuses but wasnt TRing her i believe).
Ok yeah I had some slight disgust just reading wisdom's read on newcomb that i might actually case it for you all to see
But that's only 10% likely cuz I CAN'T BE DAMNED
such is the way of the washed
6 words. I need to look at that when I get to a pc.
i dont wanna quote stuff rn cuz its annoying to to so but
shrug, they vibes for much less:
they TR on him or the vibing not an issue to me if im being honest, like obviously a wolf wouldnt scumread newcomb most of the time simply becuz... they would not want the attention (even when they know newcomb would probs townread them for it they'd be SCARED) but. shrug as i said i can see this also just being a whatever read lol. Calling him a comfort blanket felt a little out of place to me cause that didnt really match how people... interacted with him? talked to him? dunno. idk i dont really care so much about that i could just confbias that as "sure makes sense".
my vote isnt final btw im just sending a MESSAGE
(spiritual vote on whatever inso is voting, its maple rn but idrc.)
done for today gn.
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