Tarot Mafia

[Visor]

Players Votes

Wisdom 6 (Gemma, Ladd, EnderWiggin, nebjiamn, dyachei, Jan)
Ladd 4 (Montmorency, Theknightsofneeee, grr, Dolby)
Maple 3 (insomnia, Wisdom, Vanta Black)
nebjiamn 1 (Sunbae)

[Maple]

cool i'm not the only one who thinks maple is just a villager here, not taking crazy pills

well for what it's worth im not being voted out today lol

im getting killed by the unstoppable vigi instead!

[Maple]

oh i should clarify my role!

I think i've said it all already but:

I started the game with the ability to select any minor arcana card I wish, during the day. At the end of the day, I recieve whatever card I select which contains an ability related to that card.

n1 i was targeted by the inverser who made it so I now select a target to recieve the card (rather than getting it myself). I do not know what the cards do.

I targeted Arctic last night, and gave him some sorta Coins card, idr exactly which.

Anyway, I am currently targeting Jan w/ a utility card. We'll see what it does lol

[theknightsofneeee]

idt you were ladd's main push d1, i would say it was sheep/knights, you were a side dish when the thread stagnated a bit. at least that's how i read things. ladd can feel free to clarify ig

and i've factored that in, but i don't have a strong village read on you so idt its fair or charitable for me to suggest you are also a reason ladd is a wolf in that world view when i know me/sheep are villagers, knights is likely one, but my confidence on you being one is pretty shaky at best. i could easily have things inverted between you/ladd so /shrug

i'm gonna reiterate, gemma had every reason/excuse to leave their vote on me day 1 if they were a wolf

i was a competing wagon to them (i think we were both at 3 votes, and syn/sheep were the next highest at 2)

so moving off of me (villa), and onto syn (wolf), in a high leverage spot at EOD, especially considering no one cajoled gemma to move there specifically, and it reinvigorated that wagon which was dying off.

I can't really wolf read gemma after that personally. Gemma would have to be like a serial busser, or think they were for sure gonna die and was trying to distance (IMO that wasn't how EOD 1 felt).

[theknightsofneeee]

btw

something that I didn't want to talk about earlier but seems relevant if people are going to lynch wisdom.

Inverter seems like it would make sense with a firefighter role specifically because i assume it would turn the firefighting part of the role into a douse.

Which would make claiming the role early for clearance bad mechanically, and is the type of punishing claiming that I know visor likes to put in his games.

would also make sense to therefore only give villas the firefighter as well, because wolves/whoever the inverter is could potentially neutralize it.



I super buy the claim.

[theknightsofneeee]

i've noticed dolby talking about my alignment with what feels like complete certainty a couple of times, so i have just the slightest #fear that i got snowed in early by cobalt, but cobalt RWSTFO'd, and dolby is just tryharding and is also TMI'ing my alignment

not something i'm dealing with today but consider it noted

[Vanta Black]

Ugh, nope,let me think about this for 10 minutes

vote: Unvote

EoD hits me at dinnnertime/cook time/family time but I do have 10 minutes

[theknightsofneeee]

I am kinda living in a knights wolf world right now, that is probably my hottest take



I hated this post today and if you eliminate the syn vote at eod1 their posting just isnt good imo?

their jan push is obsolete by now, their d1 was wolfy (imo, but newcomb agreed!)

I see people saying "knight would tried harder as a wolf" but that read has an accurcay way below rand ime

EoD1 sure looks good from knights but they were already a wagon and widely suspected, I dont think it's really such a crazy buss for them to make. If they wolfside at EoD they just risk both of them going down

Idk i think you're familiar enough with my play that I very rarely bus, and if I do I make a show of it and try to get clearance for it.

My weak ass stuff on syn at EOD wouldn't be how i would play a bus, plus I had already set up a gemma!wolf read so i could just vote there instead of on a syn.



I agree that saying 'i would try harder as a wolf' is a bad read, but thats mostly just because I usually try just based on how much time I have available in 12/12 games.

48/24 is a different beast, and i've absolutely had time to post the last couple days, just didn't really feel like it. And I get that that is statistically >rand wolfy to admit but its the truth.



And tbqh, the wolf pushes on me day 1 were pretty lame and insubstantial, essentially boiled down to 'knights would be trying harder' or 'tone' also.

But I don't think you can reasonably make a case against me being a wolf based on my voting/pushes.

[grr]

cool i'm not the only one who thinks maple is just a villager here, not taking crazy pills

I don't really have qualms with their posts and i'm fine on my wagon, but it kinda makes sense with these:

i agree on wisdom's w equity and the out of placeness of the claim in relation to everything else. idrg it but she did fake claim as a wolf in a recent 12/12er i hosted where she claimed some kinda cop (vanilla cop or somethin idr) on d2 as and survived / won the game off that silliness. if i draw a parallel from that game to this one the a) apparently unnecessary claim timing and b) the believability of the role existing in the roleset given everything else we know (she claimed that cop when other investigative had been elim'd d1 and i think the other PR had a pseudo invest like a desperado or smth) line up with my perception of the current game state and her place in it.

the 3p!devil would make sense thematically as an arsonist but there's ~0% shot rask tried to fake claim a vig shot that wasn't his own and the rest of the apparent KP in the game doesn't align with an arsonist existing unless they ignited last night AND arctic... shot someone he was village reading

my worry is that maple is wolf KP and wisdom is a meh role/Goon particularly because how the self-resolving/attention drawing occurred and if w we look at another 2/3 deaths tomorrow. but in that world i feel like wisdom would be lolcatting to throw the lunch here and they seem content? maybe that's telling lol

maybe we flip it around and kill wisdom here and have jan jail/kill maple? idk

They just came out of a game where they fakeclaimed d2 as a wolf on MU, their firefighter claim i think is pretty weak for reasons already explained

Their pushes have all been extremely surface level and especially their pushes on vanta/gemma i think lack the care/paranoia wisdom would have there as a villager. Bonus: i think gemma is a villager and the only possible wolf pushing them d1 is wisdom

bop died calling for their head

last thoughts:

i think if wisdom/maple are w/w, wisdom has the more useful power tonight. maple would def be able to post better here as a wolf to swing the lunch if need be

I find really hard to believe wisdom v and maple w worlds cause i really dont get what manti is doing here in this scenario

v/v we are probably fucked

21

yea i pondered that earlier. i think i was a bit thrown by how d2 played out and manti wanting one more day but that doesnt align with how they are playing today cause wisdom is like... trying and manti isnt?

if jan is real it shouldn't really matter since if they are w/w he can jail the other but im down to swap in case of shenanigans of some sort

im swamped at work so idk how realistic it is for me to make it back for eod again. sorry

vote: wisdom

so. 1. how did they both get the "they did that on MU idea" at the same time and both 1 day after the claim happened and not like, immediately lol.

(i believe I brought it up first btw)

2. wisdom... literally... dipped?

Vibes, I think it was Insomnia that said something about Ladd not having strong reads and his pushes has been on town, that I vibed with.

Also, his 180 on me is opportunistic. And while his reads looks good on a glance, he still has gemma as town and maybe the team is just Gemma/Ladd/Maple and Gemma buses them both to go deep since they're both is the consensus PoE.

that was her last posts 6 HOURS before benneh and ladd talked about it (and the ones before were also slow)

she just explained a bit said something among the lines "ladd sus" and disappeared? she wasnt "trying" (at least not effectively) lol. maple was active and posting. wisdom was gone rofl. so yeah the theory that wisdom posted stronger and therefor is the more powerful wolf role is kinda sus. and um, yeah that whole movement just makes more sense with maple w.

[theknightsofneeee]

I just consciously realized that i'm probably over indexing on villa reading people for their wall posting this game, because I think people taking the time to make compelling wall post cases/iso's in 12/12 is usually slightly >rand villager, but in a 48/24 with post cap people have way more time so its probably just = rand.

will probably reeval dolby/monty/gemma/ender with that in mind.

[Maple]

I just consciously realized that i'm probably over indexing on villa reading people for their wall posting this game, because I think people taking the time to make compelling wall post cases/iso's in 12/12 is usually slightly >rand villager, but in a 48/24 with post cap people have way more time so its probably just = rand.

will probably reeval dolby/monty/gemma/ender with that in mind.

on average walls are >rand w and you cant convince me otherweise

[theknightsofneeee]

on average walls are >rand w and you cant convince me otherweise

key word is compelling

[dyachei]

oh look other people are questioning too

can we go back to looking at ladd?

[Vanta Black]

Like, I trust more of the voters on ladd, than the voters on Maple. And more of the voters on Wisdom than the voters on Maple.

The majority has been right two days in a row.

I don't wholly trust either claim but it sounds like Maple's claim is resolvable. But if Wisdom's claim is real then she does have an action tonight I think--somebody said she doesn't.

I think if Maple doesn't get resolved we kill him tomorrow?

vote: Wisdom

[theknightsofneeee]

@Vanta Black

what would you say is your strongest 3 reads ATM?

and how do you normally like to play as a wolf? coast and try to survive? push villagers? protect wolf partners? something else? trying to see what I should see that makes you a villager.

[Vanta Black]

oh look other people are questioning too

can we go back to looking at ladd?

Was very nearly voting ladd until neeee hopped on there.

[Gemma]

i've noticed dolby talking about my alignment with what feels like complete certainty a couple of times, so i have just the slightest #fear that i got snowed in early by cobalt, but cobalt RWSTFO'd, and dolby is just tryharding and is also TMI'ing my alignment

not something i'm dealing with today but consider it noted

bruh

[Vanta Black]

But I don't have time to go back and look.

[theknightsofneeee]

Was very nearly voting ladd until neeee hopped on there.

[Visor]

Players Votes

Wisdom 7 (Gemma, Ladd, EnderWiggin, nebjiamn, dyachei, Jan, Vanta Black)
Ladd 4 (Montmorency, Theknightsofneeee, grr, Dolby)
Maple 2 (insomnia, Wisdom)
nebjiamn 1 (Sunbae)

[theknightsofneeee]

@vanta

Do you have a reason that makes you think wisdom is a wolf?

or are you just trying to vote with people you have as villagers?

[Gemma]

oh look other people are questioning too

can we go back to looking at ladd?

dya, ladd has 4 votes

no one ever stopped looking at ladd

[dyachei]

vote: ladd

[dyachei]

dya, ladd has 4 votes

no one ever stopped looking at ladd

they did when I was there earlier

[Vanta Black]

@Vanta Black

what would you say is your strongest 3 reads ATM?

and how do you normally like to play as a wolf? coast and try to survive? push villagers? protect wolf partners? something else? trying to see what I should see that makes you a villager.

Part 1: Dolby, grr, jan (this may be halo effect from previous Saints game)

Part 2: I have done some very foolish things to protect wolf partners and oddly enough I have usually gotten away with it. Not always.

[Vanta Black]

@vanta

Do you have a reason that makes you think wisdom is a wolf?

or are you just trying to vote with people you have as villagers?

Yes to both.

[Vanta Black]

Sorry!

[nebjiamn]

I don't really have qualms with their posts and i'm fine on my wagon, but it kinda makes sense with these:












so. 1. how did they both get the "they did that on MU idea" at the same time and both 1 day after the claim happened and not like, immediately lol.

(i believe I brought it up first btw)

2. wisdom... literally... dipped?





that was her last posts 6 HOURS before benneh and ladd talked about it (and the ones before were also slow)

she just explained a bit said something among the lines "ladd sus" and disappeared? she wasnt "trying" (at least not effectively) lol. maple was active and posting. wisdom was gone rofl. so yeah the theory that wisdom posted stronger and therefor is the more powerful wolf role is kinda sus. and um, yeah that whole movement just makes more sense with maple w.

I’ve had the thought but it was offset by me initially thinking they were likely w/w and manti was a better role

I’m not spewing every thot into the game thread right away at every chance given both the cap and general thread health reasons

To your last point I think there’s an interpretation translation issue because I’m not saying wisdoms posts were good. Just that manti wasn’t really teying much to wiggle out of the elim. If they are w/w and manti had the better power I’d expect he post better and wisdom would have somewhat conceded to dying earlier since they were really the only 2 wagons in consideration for most of today

[nebjiamn]

vote: ladd

why ladd over wisdom dya

what are ur thoughts on Haru

[dyachei]

why ladd over wisdom dya

what are ur thoughts on Haru

you're better at reading haru than i am but like...I really like his tone here. yeah i know we should be past tone reads but like, he's just so pure imo

ladd over wisdom because ladd is like half-assedly pushing things and it doesnt feel like there's conviction