i will call it as us having 3.5 kills before lylo, barring any other wolf KP existing. if taffy is town we should probably ask they just ignite today (assuming it is a reasonable target) and douse no more to maximize and flatten out variance of town KP and utilize the elimination over a sleep day.mountainous world (e.g. taffy can't ignite and wolves have no other KP, town has no more saves)
9:2
miselim -> 8:2
nightkill -> 7:2
miselim -> 6:2
nightkill -> 5:2
mislim -> 4:2
nightkill -> 3:2
lylo
assuming KP is basically just taffy who gets 2 kills off (seems unlikely but yolo)
9:2
miselim -> 8:2
nightkill -> 7:2
miselim -> 6:2
nightkill + 2 missed douses -> 3:2
lylo
taffy only gets 1 kill off (seems most likely?)
9:2
miselim -> 8:2
nightkill + 1 missed douse -> 6:2
miselim -> 5:2
nightkill -> 4:2
sleep -> 3:2
lylo
wolf arso + taffy world
9:2
miselim -> 8:2
nightkill + taffy douse + wolf douses -> 4:2
mylo and prob not worth risking sleep lol
taffy IS the wolf arso and this game is bastard
9:2
miselim -> 8:2
nightkill -> 7:2
mislim -> 6:2
nightkill + taffy ignites 3 of us noobs -> 2:2
gg we lose
if wolves have their own variant of arsonist (which seems v possible to me) we are fucked hehe :)
so of a living PL of 11 players, we need to have a poe of 4 that ALWAYS has 1 wolf for the game to make it to f3 or some variant of that. and of that POE of 4, we would much much much prefer to find 1 wolf before we miselim 3 villagers.
so basically ppl having a poe of 4 is fine and dandy but the more conservative we get (or the more liberal gemma felt at the time of setup creation) then we need to fine tune that
Bookmarks