Kylo Ren's Banana Time Mafia

[EnderWiggin]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I have this deep dark feeling that I am once again going to be the game-losing misflip for town. Tbh I thought that yesterday but I was wrong so here's hoping I'm wrong again.

But I'm expecting to see a Ladd alive and Lissa flip in the morning. I did deny Lissa the hammer intentionally to hopefully reduce that chance but after I did that I kinda honestly thought it was a futile move.

Sunbae isn't going to want Lissa over Ladd. So hi Ladd. Given our history I don't know how I'm going to win this game for town but I'm going to give it a fair shake. (Unless you're wolf in which case I called it but I still lose lol)

So yes, after Sunbae's vote I hemmed and hawed for a while because honestly I was like "Does Sunbae really pre-empt that on a partner?"

But Lissa had just said that she thought Visor was the wolfier. And I'd just made a comment or two about Visor being the wolfier. (I was going to vote Visor tbh after I re-wrote my wall but you'd have to trust my word for it so nyeh.) so I think Sunbae was honestly just taking the thunder away from other people and setting down the first vote.

And then I was like "If Lissa gets the hammer she's hammering Visor. And if she's right then she gets killed in the night 100%." So I took that away and hammered Visor myself.

So I'm going to jump back to Sunbae. I have tossed this over in my head and it was what settled the previous night as the most confident thing I had.

Sunbae, why does he randomly go after me when I'm unassailable? When I've just shot one wolf and no one is challenging my position? Because, as wolf, he's not going to garner sus then either. Maple is on the block and nothing is saving him.

Sunbae can set up for the next phase of the game, trying to undermine me.

Which also harks back to "Why did Jan give me the gun."

Because, as I said on that day, it honestly makes so little sense in the grand scheme of things. Because wolves potentially lose an ml.

But I think I kind of have an answer to that. They didn't know who had the Last Parting gift. And if, say, Maple or Lissa (Who were getting a lot of sus prior to Jan's flip) had it then we could clear POE with it still.

And given my vote on Lissa maybe I was swayable. If they can get me onside with Jan then they've pretty much won the game since I was one of the most vocal sussers of Jan (In my impression at least.)

Risk with not much downside since Maple is tied heavily enough to Jan that they can easily chain that together.

So I've done the rereading and things I think are indicative of wolf!Sunbae that I really want to bring to your attention:

1. Jan townread on D1 (Very strong) only to reverse it when he realised that Jan was tanking and very quickly heading towards being very sussed.

2. Visor literally spent a lot of D1 trying to bait someone into leading the wolfread charge on me.

3. Sunbae desperately played for the hammer in the hopes it would be given because they just win then.

4.

I find you and Ladd villagery on posting still which is why Im struggling this game. Via posting I think you two are the villageriest two while mechanically/dealing with the deal wolf I think ender (killed)/lissa (push) are and I'm hung up in my "my vibes vs mechanics" torn viewpoints. I'm also baffled by how locked in both of you are on each other - you on him more given i think if you read his posts he's just been massively pro villa this game and you dont seem to have really considered that - but yeah. Part of me thinks both of you would have an easier time seeing the other as villagery as villagers so i also have a SMALL FEAR that its both of you.

I feel like this is easily the wolfiest post in the thread regarding the F5. Sunbae is intentionally finding reasons to fence sit and talks about "assuming Visor/Ladd as v" right after saying Visor/Ladd should cross.

And as I said, Visor and Sunbae spent more time talking about reading *other* people. Also I find it hilarious that they spent a lot of in-thread time talking about a horse game.

5. You remember how you said that "If you think Visor/You are w/w after D3 you're a wolf"?

Could I get your thoughts in as much detail as possible on a potential Visor/Ladd world? Earlier I called it the most logical one if I just ignore posting (ender shoots jan, you heavily case jan, visor and ladd are just good posting woofs). And if you don't want to be convincing me because you think I'm a wolf pretend you're convincing Ender of it!

I can't help but notice that Sunbae is intentionally trying to field it.

this was moments before he wilded a Lissa/Me world because it would push two town into the wolf sphere and you/Visor were nettling. He literally flung whatever was at the wall in hopes if finding a way forwards. It never felt like Sunbae was trying to solve the game in an organic manner.

---

I could diatribe more but got a headache so I'll continue once day starts and I can post instead of re-writing things in a notepad lol.

@Lissa

Still relevant info but enjoy my incredibly wolfy appeal to the night kill

[EnderWiggin]

2. Vanta's post about it looking like Visor is trying to chain something together and he doesn't like it is villagery for the exact same reasons I find Waza's posts wolfy. I look at it and say "wow good thought process Vanta, you're really thinking intricately about the game so you must be a villager". Werewolf is a stupid game and I am able to hold these two thoughts simultaneously.

Also wanted to point out how Vanta townread for sussing Visor for trying to chain things but never comments a read on Visor until:

think my current start for suspects is in but not lissa/cape nor visor/cape so my interest there is significantly less than the previous 3

probably a villager
jan
ender
cape

lean villager
rask
ladd

woofing?
maple
visor
lissa
waza

But then D2 comes to Visor's side against Raskol's attack at which point they basically rep a townread on Visor.

[EnderWiggin]

my heart wants to like sunbae (my brain is staying strong on that one for now).

Raskolnikov
EnderWiggin

Cape90
Sunbae

waza
ladd
Visor

Maple
Lissa


This is my order right now.

Maple is not a wolf by play and just down there because everyone above has done things to be towny.

Rask is toptier purely on vibes.
Enders d1 intro rarely comes from a wolf and I liked his d2 start as well.

Jan also repped a vague townread on Sunbae the entire time while he buttered me up hard with strong statements (And I am gonna call that unpairing fuck you.)

visor/sunbae w/w

I wanted to add this btw because I stumbled over it on reread and found it hilarious.

[EnderWiggin]

Read thread.

1 wolf in Ladd/Ender
1 wolf in Maple/Rask
1 wolf in Waza/Lissa/Jan



I have Visor/Cape as my villagers.

I currently lean the wolf team being Ladd/Rask/Waza but that's more just a shot in the dark. I feel pretty great about the wolf groupings though.

Also I thought this "Groupings" were weird when it was first posted but I reckon it feels even worse in a retrospective

[EnderWiggin]

Ladd i have villa, just out of his D1 solving. The read is kinda idle rn considering their irl.

Now I smh didnt like his first page posts but I am not sure if its ai or not and I confess I didnt look back at other games but mostly I dont rrcall feeling this way reading ladds early posts. Also I was a bit disappointed by his final logic vote d1 (i do think its better to vote people with content, blame me).

Ender i do not have more to add I guess. Kinda of an ego read but he has the correct one on me when I felt there was so momemtum early D2 to build up my wagon ridding people bad pushes... which brings me to Sunbae.

I am still digesting their wall but the part about me is not charitable and misrepresenting to an extent. I get the willingness to read and make AI conclusions out of player moves, but the way they paint what I did around visor is not right. Like I didnt switch anything, i just miss remembered who he was pushing early D1, yet the conclusions held, like to me his early case on Cape was meh (I labelled it as "lazy" itt) and I quite didnt get the follow up with Vanta ww with Cape (as I said, in lieu of the other possibilities). If you were paying attention yo what I was saying, its clear I didnt "switch" anything, just missremembered who was the first visors push. And its pretty clear itt since I adressed the first case live, the second case live then misstyped when I sum up the reasons for my vote late D1.

It doesnt make suunbae lock wolf, but still uncharitable, borderline sloppy. Which is weird considering the effort they seem to put in the game (look that wall lmao).

Finishing some stuff (cover for me eating "viennoiseries") then Ill finish up my ketchup

I also want to point out that if I was wolf I have 0 reason to kill Rask since I effectively have him pocketed, and the above would be really good to keep around given in a W!Ender world I'd be stacking on my towncred from the Jan shot to try and force through a vote. And winning in F5 is way easier than F3 for me anyway.

[EnderWiggin]

I was going to promise myself to check other worlds but I think if you're wolf Lissa then I'm pretty much going to struggle to get there and struggle to get Sunbae there so lol.

Vote: Sunbae



(This is where Lissa hammers and I feel like an idiot.)

[Lissa]

Ack etc.

Honestly not all that surprised I'm alive here. There's some deep lore with me and f3s ngl. And ladd was obv also pretty clear.

I have Thoughts, not really gonna get into them just yet.

[EnderWiggin]

I won't lie, despite the confidence I had in that vote I was still worried.

I'll probably be sleeping soon but thankfully the weekend is coming up next for me so I will actually not vanish for 75% of the day for work. (Though I'm probably going to be gone for the last 8-10 hours due to a commitment watching Beetlejuice, so I'm hoping to get all my posts/questions out of the way before then.)

[Sunbae]

vote: ender

All you need to do is read day 3 where I do a complete 180 on ladd unprompted. I start at maple/ladd, reread the thread, come out with ladd as the villageriest person in t he game, call rask the second villageryiest person in the game, then spend the next however long trying to find scenarios where all of those thoughts (visor v, ladd v, rask v) can co-exist.

Ignore the shit being said today where it's just people telling you what you want to hear.

Go read that section from start of day where I sit there and try to yell about how Jan giving a gun to a villager when its one chop away is nonsensical all the way to the end of my reread. Ask yourself if it's more likely that it's me reevaluating and coming to the correct conclusion as a villager or shifting from a winning position as a wolf to make things more difficult. Read visors response to me not believing the ender shot where he tries to convince me it makes sense. Then read yesterday as I sort through everything and come to the correct conclusion while also trying to position myself in a way to help today and sorting through things.

Essentially: Ignore stuff today because the answer is in the past.

- Eod 2 where Ender comes in calling after calling Jan a wolf that day and then votes you over him

- Sod 3 where I point out that it makes zero sense for wolf Jan to give a gun to villager Ender.

- Entirety of day 3 where you ask yourself who is trying to solve the game between the two of us


I trust in your ability to get it right. And if you are hesitant, Ladds parting words are that its 3x more likely to be ender than me and that i should snap ender. He cant be alive for ender wolf which is why hes dead.

[Sunbae]

i don't know how you go from saying enders posts are "I am ngl when i first read his posts i thought he seemed fine

But then i re read them and wow they are so wolfy lmao"

and then the second spurt is fine and really?

i don't really understand how you changed your mind here

at the risk of making another w/w read.....

Also we talked about Visor linking villagers to wolves (jan/waza to you eod2) and heres him doing it to ladd/ender

[Sunbae]

alrighty i am caught up

rask/lissa i am never voting this game, you can hold me to this



sunbae - until d3 i dodnt see why he couldnt be a wolf but i think his posting today and the conclusion he has come to are both correct and villagery in processo so maybe i am a sucker but i think he is just a villager

ender - i dont see who he could be a wolf with. he is not with maple and not with visor (i think) so ya only viable is team is like sunbae/ender but that does not feel right to me + i dont think he would go for a gambit again against a similar PL+i think he has been reasonably villagery except eod2+jan piced the target during d2 and he had ender as top villa so ender as target makes sense to me

maple - prolly wolf by PoE. If not we are in trouble cause it's probably some super hard world like sunbae/visor

visor - i have explained why i think he is a wolf and why i think him/maple makes sense as a fit



i'll be back for EoD tho expect it will just end in a maple lunch

so why is it a problem that i had this read earlier than you lol????

wild

reading the last page i do think hell world sunbae/visor is unlikely. unless they are doing some elaborate good cop vs bad cop ploy i don't feel those pages with me/visor/sunbae in it would happen the same way if they were w/w?

i am pretty locked in on visor/maple, it just makes ~everything fit for me (just a bit spooked by jan v list lissa posted and jan voting maple/visor in quick succession on eod2 but i think it's reasonable he was in anti spew given he had already claimed)

if i am wrong sorry, c'est la vie

second most likely team is probably sunbae/maple, then sunbae/visor and then sunbae/ender

Dont listen to me. Listen to Ladd.

But if you want to see visor be a bit annoyed that hes not getting credit for villa reading me correctly thats in there too

[Sunbae]

Like Ladd has just been pro villa start to finish. defending cape, defending waza, not hiding behind my jan v read and starting to get there on him, voting jan as a double voter, votes jan again like idk its just all pretty villagery to me results wise

I think if I just take a deep breath it's like "games easy, just pew pew maple then ender when he doesnt die in the night or its 2 wolves and thats why the third is hard to find" but some very hard worlds exist and id really like to fade them

I guess my big hangup is how does Ender wind up with the ability to shoot Jan if Ender is a villager when Jan gets to choose the target and Ender has a started wolf read on Jan? You can just give it to another wolf and you're safe.

Not one answer I've come up with about on this topic makes sense to me. There's seemingly zero benefit to doing so. What? You give it to someone wolf reading you and then convince them to save you and then come in the next day and have them shield you? You're still dying the next day. And the downside is he shoots you.

And why wasn't it given to me in that case? I defended him! I'm snowable in that situation!

According to Knights' role, people aren't told they have a bomb so you can't even argue that Jan had a bomb and was expecting to blow up Ender who happened to have an antidote

the way i see it there are four major lines

a) you give it a wolf, you shoot to go deep
b) you give it to a wolf, you don't shoot, argue it either unpairs you, or hard defend or whatever
c) you give it to a villager, they don't shoot you, hooray
d) you give it to a villager, they shoot you, people think why would you ever give it to a villager, has to be a wolf going deep, they kill them

so the argument is either wolves thought they needed to send ender deep/ go for hail mary, or wolves figured that by giving to a villager even if they shoot you, theres a good chance that they get killed anyway

This is all on day 3 when the entire game is handshake.gif that its maple/ladd and the game is about to end. I say I'm going to do a reread and come out with this.

None of this is needed at all if its me/visor. This is good ole fashioned villaging

[Sunbae]

Also note: the key takeaway at this point from my constant Ender pushing after the claim is NOT whether having Jan give the gun to a villager or wolf makes more sense.

The key takeaway is despite me harping on it for two game days - four real life days - Visor at no point tries to go along with it. He argues against it at every turn. He doesn't try to get other peoples thoughts on it. He doesn't try to use it to clear me if we're w/w. He doesn't try to use it to get people onto Ender if we're w/w. He doesn't start hemming and hawing about Ender could be a wolf from it.

He constantly defends it. Handwaves it away. Ignores it when possible. He does not want to dig deep into it for an extended period whatsoever.

[Sunbae]

Don’t see myself voting rask or cape today

Probs not ladd unless he starts posting howlers

Everyone else I suppose is fair game

waza goat

[Sunbae]

Visor has really talked about wanting to read Ender but then like not reading ender like twice today, in the second post being like "Ender is tomorrow's problem"

cape GOAT

[Sunbae]

I'll leave for now with this:

It is ok to have bad reads. Especially in a game like this where the entire player list are sickos. I do not deny that my reads on day 1 and day 2 were bad. I was turned around on Jan. I was turned around on Visor. I was on the wrong side of visor/rask and I was on the wrong side of Waza. What is important is what happened as the game went on. I think I did a good job of:

- Reorienting myself on day 3. Once we had a wolf flip and a few information kills like Waza/Cape I started righting the ship. I reread the thread and came out with Ladd/Rask v heavily. Even calling them the most villagery people in the game which I feel was massively pro villa given the timing and context. Ladd was starting to sus Visor hard and we know Rask was going back and forth on that hard as well. It would be very easy to keep up with the "maple/ladd wolves" threadstate the game was in but instead I came up with a totally different conclusion that really struck against a pro-wolf gamestate.

- Being unrelenting about something I didn't view as on the up and up. When Ender claimed the Jan kill I went through it extensively because it did not make sense to me. At all. I constantly returned back to the fact that it made zero sense to me for Jan to ever give the gun to a villager when they were at one chop left. Note: I think at this point cape just had a bomb and killed carrying Jan then Ender claimed to try and salvage it knowing that Jan didn't visit anywhere, but that still makes him a wolf so the point holds. I would not shut up about it. I consistently brought it up. I would not just let it die and shrug it off because I knew it made no sense. HOWEVER the key part is that I still tried to solve around this. I viewed worlds that would exist if I were wrong anyways (like Ladd/Lissa yesterday!). This is because I was attempting to solve the game rather than just push a narrative.

- Holding strong to those convictions. I spent the rest of day 3 and a chunk of day 4 trying to figure out how the shared views I had of Ladd, Rask, and Visor being villa could work. It's clear I spent a ton of time trying to work through scenarios on how that could exist. Maple/Ender is what I ended up at (the post about it being easy and pew pewing Maple then Ender when he didnt die in the night) but I also heavily explored Lissa/Ender. I tried to put myself into the shoes of that world and explain what had to happen and why if so and by that I mean I tried really, really, really hard on day 4 early ("i think i solved it" post).


Essentially my recap points to one important fact: As the game went on I got more villagery. Not less. This was expressed by Ladd as well yesterday and day 3. As we got more information I got more villagery. As I realized things I was wrong about I got more villagery. That is the key to finding villagers deep in the game. Who got more villagery the longer it goes on. Its me.

[Sunbae]

I do want to reiterate that the answer is in the game and not today. I can recap til the cows come home - and its reasonable to do so - but nothing is going to shine the light more than reading through the game yourself and asking "who is trying to solve the game and who isnt"