A question of chance...

[Frederik III]

I noticed something I would call the treacherous 1 percent rule lately. Seems to me that when you have even only even one small percent of chance for a rebellion in one of your provinces, the rebellion in fact occurs let's say about 30 or 40 % of the time and definitely not 1%.

Kinda same for the assassinations as I had to take my king out two times in my campaigns ( I had to do it, really...nothing personal of course ) with only a 0 star assassin. They had something like a few percents of chance to do so ( don't remember the exact number ). I expected to enrol all the assassins available in my taverns to do so but no... They did the job on the very first try twice ( and had quite a promotion to a 4 star assassin in the same time ).

So, why in fact do those percentages lie sometimes or just seem inaccurate? And why do rebellions seem to occur more accordingly to loyalty colors (green, yellow, red...) than to the given percentage?

If there is an assassination expert around here, I'd be glad to know more about that.

[Theodoret]

I've made twenty assassination attempts on a certain Prince in my campaign at 17% chance per assassin. All I've succeeded in doing is making him very nervous. At 17% chance (1 in 6) each you would have thought I would have killed him by now.

[Vrashk]

Hehe.. I assassinated the pope 3-4 times in a row with 17% .. (That pesky leper always seem to dislike me for attempting to unite christianity under one strong leader to lead them against the infidels, I cant understand why *Grins*)

[Gregoshi]

Greetings Frederik III. Welcome to the Org.

I don't have time at the moment to give you specific advise, but I do know what you mean about the percentages sometimes. In the meantime, check out the Table of Contents thread pinned at the top of the Main Hall forum. You'll find links to threads that provide lots of good information about many topics in the game.

[Frederik III]

Thanks for the greetings Gregoshi. I shall do as you said. Thou art a gallant youth.

[SmokWawelski]

Quote[/b] ]Thou art a gallant youth

Hi hi, I think that Gregoshi has accumulated all his wisdom over some time now, so he might be better not called youth any more. Many winters have past since he joined the ranks of the ORG and we all are glad he did so. He guided many people into the knighthood and other rooms in this forum


As to the percentage, my statistics teacher used to say that every percentage chance is bogus, cause you can flip a coin 1000 times and get all heads and no tails at all. You have a 50/50 chance every time, but you tell it to this stupid coin you are flipping.

In other words, 1 in 6 means that each time this is your probability to success, but the next time you try it is still 1 in 6, not 1 in 5 as some would think, so you have to beat the same odds every time. I would also think that the percentage changes after you commit your assassin to the job, as the target can move or new agents will enter the province over the next turn...

[Lord of the morning]

If you try to assasinate your leader and the chance is 17% to succeed ant you try this six times the chance that at least one would suceed is 67.31%. This is easily calculated with the hmmm I dont know the english word but translated from swedish it would be complemantary Occurrence method, ie. take tha chance each that it would fail and give this number the power of the times the atempt is made, in this case it would be 0.83^6. the cance for the king to die of any of theese atempts is 1-0.83^6

[Theodoret]

Determined to kill that prince I eventually suceeded earlier today. It took forty attempts. I killed his brother with an army, far cheaper with a much greater probability of success. I understand that a 1/6 probability of success does not mean six assassins will automatically kill the target (but thanks for reminding me of the mathematics Lord of the Morning, its been a while since I did anything intensely mathematical and I'm getting rusty). I think the probability displayed in the game is the 'base' probability before such things as border forts and counter-espionage agents are taken into account. Perhaps the same is true of rebellions.
On a slight tangent, does anyone know why Livonia is so rebellious? It must be the most rebellious province I've ever encountered.

[keet]

I agree with SmokWawelski. Every time has the same chance of occuring. It could be attempted a million times, it would still be the same chance.

It is like surveys that say 9 out of 10 people preferred this brand but then ask 10 more people and the results could change.

[Gregoshi]

99% of all statistics are meaningless.

Still, I'll take the AI's 17% over my 17% any day...