As the game’s intro text for the Picts’ faction warns, they have two serious initial threats, the Scots and the Vikings. This strategy should eliminate both.
On the first turn, build a brothel in Monoth and queue up four Celtic Warriors (CW). Build an inn in Fib and queue up a watchtower and shrine everywhere else. You can set all the provinces taxes on very low except for Fib, where your unit with the highest acumen should be governor. Send the Priest to Fib.
Now send the garrison from the Orcades to Cait and split the garrison in Monoth between Fib and Athfotla (make sure that happiness is at least 100 here). Send everyone else into Sci.
On the second turn, the Scots will retreat into the stronghold that they have built in Sci. Assault with the forces you have there. Send the Priest to Hordaland and destroy the ports and abbeys in Orcades and Cait to keep the Vikings away. Leave the Abbey in Domon as bait for the Vikings. Send the CW from Cait to Sci and the new CW from Monoth to Athfotla.
Turn three dawns with your forces taking Sci. Destroy the abbey and port there. Have the Priest propose an alliance with the Vikings. Build a stockade in Athfotla and a watchtower and shrine in Fib and Sci. Hire all the mercs you can at Fib’s new inn. Move the new CW from Monoth to Fib and leave a small garrison in Sci. Send everything else into Dal Riada.
Turn four should have you winning an easy battle in Dal Riada, or the Scots may even run. Leave a garrison there and push as many troops as you can into Cyil. The Vikings have hopefully accepted your alliance offer.
On the fifth turn, the Scottish king is defeated and leaves for Ulster, after paying you a ransom of 8900+. Start producing spies in Monoth and build a Stew to give them valour. Send the first spies to Jutland, then Hordaland, followed by the rest of your provinces. Once you get three-star spies in the Viking lands, they are effectively crippled and their raiding days are over.
I then built infrastructure like crazy. Eventually I was producing valour 2 CW in Athfotla, valour 3 Pictish Cav (PC) in Fib, valour 2 Pictish Crossbowmen in Dal Riada and valour 1 Pictish Mounted Crossbowmen (PMC) in Cyil. My armies consist of a general, three PMC, four CW, four crossbows and four PC. I build ships in Cait, Sci and Moray and I stagger the production so as to get one ship per turn.
The Northumbrians attacked, so I took Lothene and the rebel province of Reget. During the cease fire, I got Manau and overran Ireland. Jutland rebelled and I bribed the rebels. From Jutland, an army of PMC’s can take a bankrupt Hordaland once you have sealift in place. On the main island, push south to the strong defensive position of Pec Saethan and Dere. Whoever controls the south is now at your mercy.
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