Some Basic Experiments with Economy

[Tamur]

Over the last couple of days I've used my play time to start and keep detailed track of a Julii campaign's economic status. I kept track of farm, tax, trade, and admin income, as well as population, the management score of the governor, start and completion dates of buildings (especially and including ports, roads, traders, markets, etc).

After running this campaign for fourteen years (through 256 BC), I entered all the data into a spreadsheet, graphed it both across cities and comparatively inside cities.

What I found was both expected and unexpected...

1. Expected: the management score of the governor has a huge impact on all sectors of income - farm, tax, trade, and admin.

For example, I pulled a 4-Management governor out of Segesta to go relieve a seige on Mediolanium, and Segesta's income dropped by 10% within two turns.

2. Unexpected: building traders and trader upgrades in neighbouring provinces ups trade income.

Out of all four trader completions and market upgrades I was able to do, the province building the upgrade or adding the trader did not see a major increase in trade income. Instead, a single neighbouring province saw a spike in their trade income.

For example, in the summer of 267 I finished a trader in Ariminum. Ariminum's income from trade went from 580 to 586 (+6). In the same turn, Arretium's trade income went from 344 to 544 (+200!), and remained at that level or greater for the rest of the game.

3. Unexpected: tax income does not parallel population, total income, or any combination of population and income.

There are other factors at work here. I kept track of governor management skill, and factored in all sorts of combinations of management, income and population, but I've exhausted all the possible combinations without finding a formula that defines tax income. This will need additional info to be "cracked".

[Dorkus]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the tests.

Only problem is I don't think you can just click end turn and compare the results from the previous turn.

You need to save, build, end turn.

Reload, don't build, end turn.

Compare those results.

There's natural variance in all the figures. You'll confuse those figures with the effects of the building unless you use the method I describe. (actually, even the method i describe may not work, since the buildings you build seem to affect the "seed" -- e.g. sometimes I build a building and the outcomes of auto battles are different than when I didn't)

[RedKnight]

Cool work, Tamur. I'm trying to decide how much it's worth it to move my good managers around. You say that they increase income from all sectors. But can you say how much? I can't even find a reference in the manual as to just how much it might be. Did you find anything conclusive? Is one management point worth 5%, 10%, or what? But it sounds like it was quite variable. Can you at least state a range?

Thanks if you can help!

[Tamur]

therother has been doing a lot of (far more precise) analysis since I wrote this post. You might do a search for economics-related posts he's started in the last 2 weeks or so, much solid, detailed information available in those threads.

[Tamur]

edit: double-post removed

[Quietus]

Hey Tamur,

Nice start there! I'll try to chip in if I can I'll have to do some test myself later. A couple of quick comments though:

1. Isn't the effect instantaneous? (after you pull out a governor?)
2. How about comparing goods traded from one province to the other? There's a trade detail screen there that breaks down Imports and Exports so I guess you can track the trade income there.
3. I think you have to use un-governored towns and and normal tax just to get the basic data, because governors introduce alot of additional factors there.

Also do you mean to say, you want to get an equation involving the tax income? I'd like to find a trend for that too!

Right now, I've looked at corruption like therother, however, one thing I'm frustrated with is the lack of equation that I can tie with the in-game data. For example: 25% distance always get ~ 16% corruption. 20% distance get ~14% etc but putting a legible equation, I've no such luck.

Anyway, drop some more info once you find some and hopefully, we all can cull resources.

[therother]

1. Isn't the effect instantaneous? (after you pull out a governor?)

In the first instance, yes, but there may be additional effects of having a good governor in situ for a significant period. I've not found any, admittedly, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.

2. How about comparing goods traded from one province to the other? There's a trade detail screen there that breaks down Imports and Exports so I guess you can track the trade income there.)

Problem is that it's difficult to calculate what each good makes by itself, as the trade description screen just gives you totals.

3. I think you have to use un-governored towns and and normal tax just to get the basic data, because governors introduce alot of additional factors there.

Yes, this reductionist method seems to be the best at the moment, as there appears to be very few (if any) compounded effects. That is to say that 10% to tax income means 10% to the base income, not 10% on top of the current tax income.

Also do you mean to say, you want to g et an equation involving the tax income? I'd like to find a trend for that too!

Well this thread should help you get started.

Right now, I've looked at corruption like therother, however, one thing I'm frustrated with is the lack of equation that I can tie with the in-game data. For example: 25% distance always get ~ 16% corruption. 20% distance get ~14% etc but putting a legible equation, I've no such luck.

Really? Could you send me the data? A word of warning though: make sure you have no Governors with Law traits/characters or Law buildings. Also make sure you take the total income, not the net income the game displays.

The equation I've derived for corruption is not easy to remember, but as a rule of thumb, there is no corruption for 16 squares around the capital, then corruption increases by 8% per 10 squares to ~65% (or ~100 squares) where it is capped.