Investigation of Devastation

[therother]

Placeholder.

(This thread was transferred to the Ludus Magna from the Colosseum. Its original title was Eureka! A Devastation Breakthrough! and it was started by Quietus.)

[Quietus]

I finally get to study devastation for a bit. And I found what I think are reproduceable patterns in the "Devastation" phenomenon. At this moment, I noted 2 flavors: One is prevalent the other is rarer.

The Prevalent Type of devastation is that 10% of farm income (rounded down) is deducted. For example my farm income is 612 for Dimmidi, the devastation is 612x10%=61.2. Rounded down, that is 61.

The Rarer Type of devastation is present on two of my regions bordering enemy provinces: Lepcis Magna and Campus Scythii. The devastation minus here is higher by 10%, but here's the interesting part: they are higher by a factor of whole number (I've seen 4 and 6 so far) times the original devastation value. For example:

Lepcis Magna Farm Income: 408 denari
Devastation Value : 244 denari
408 denari x 10% = 40.8 denari
244 denari/40.8 denari = 5.98 = ~ 6

Campus Scythii Farm Income: 544 denari
Devastation Value: 326 denari
544 denari x 10% = 54.4 denari
326 denari/ 54.4 denari = 5.99 = ~ 6

Observations:
1) Prevalent type present in almost all regions with "devastation", except those with rarer type.
2) Rarer type is present on provinces bordering enemy regions ( Thrace (Tanais), Dacia (Vicus Venedae) and Numidia (Siwa).
3) Provinces with devastation always has a culture penalty.
4. Bribing rebels close by doesn't affect any variables in the rarer types.
5. No test yet done on prevalent type. But my guess is it won't affect it either.
6. I did a couple of tests where the Devastation value with factor 6 goes down by 4. There are also occasions where it stayed to 6.

Early Hypothesis:
There is an elusive, unknown variable there that factors in the devastation value. I'm still checking enemy borders, armies etc. but no definite answers yet. Though, I believe finding this factor will greatly increase the understanding this RTW feature.

In addition, there are other avenues that can still be checked and explored. For example, I won both provinces via prolonged siege. I eventually had to win by battle, but still, that could be a possible factor (since, the longer you stay in an area, the blacker the area becomes = farming penalty?). I also had alot of agents there, so it could also be a bug that reads agents as armies, thus destroy farming area if they hang around. There are many possibilities.

Anyway, I'll check some more into this later, but that's all the good news for now.

[andrewt]

From my experience, enemy armies staying in your territory adds to the devastation penalty. Also, having a big battle in your territory also adds to it. That penalty decreases over time, however.

[JeromeGrasdyke]

There is an elusive, unknown variable there that factors in the devastation value. I'm still checking enemy borders, armies etc. but no definite answers yet.

You might want to investigate how many tiles are devastated

[Tamur]

Nice work Quietus! Very helpful info.

[ToranagaSama]

Nice work! Much too consider.

I've, also, begun to suspect that prolonged sieges, create a corresponding prolonged Devestation effect. Still looking at this.

Also, an Army standing in place for too long a period, appears to cause some devastation as well.

There's also something else which I have NO clue.

In the Julii city of Atritium, the one along the Adriatic, I've got a Devestation icon, that won't go away. There's been no battles, its an initial city, no sieges, not even any Rebels in the Province. Yet, there is a relatively large Rebel stack to the south, all the way in the southernmost part of the neighboring province. One would think that that's tooo far way to cause Devestation. I have no clue!

Is overpopulation a cause/factor? This city has high squalor.

[Oaty]

provinces that do have a volcano can have devastation go up greatly from an eruption.

Sieges definately ruin the economy, if it was a short sige no major damage maybe about 50 denari that lasts about 5-6 years. But I starved a Greek city with 2000 troops in it and the devastation was about 700 denari. If you pay close attention there are some cities that look like a coal depot, that's because the A.I. has been battling it out for that city for so many years the economy is devatated.

Enemy armies just sitting on your land does'nt cause any or very little devastation, if it did people would be robbing the A.I. all the time just camping on there land and picking a new spot until that province could not make any income

[hoom]

...or they just haven't worked out that that works yet...

[Quietus]

JeROME "Total War" Grasdyke! Our man! Thx for the clue, we hope it holds true!

People, I'll do more test later, but here's how you folks can participate and do it yourself. There's a simple equation to Devastation, I propose:

Devastation Value(after Trigger) = Base Devastation Value x Severity of Devastation
Devastation Value(after Trigger) = BDV(S) where
Trigger= base length of time an army parks in a tile where it causes devastation.
Base Devastation Value = Is ALWAYS 10%Farm Income (for a single tile devastated).
Severity of Devastation = Number tiles that are affected (as hinted by J).

Thus, In my old example earlier:
Lepcis Magna Farm Income: 408 denari
Devastation Value: 244 denari
Base Devastation Value: 40.8 denari
Severity of Devastation is 6. I just found it out by rearranging the equation.

DV/BDV = S = 244 denari/(10% of 408 denari) = 5.98 = ~6

Please, check your games and see if this equation holds true. I will do the same. Or, if you find a better way, please, speak up.

[therother]

Excellent work Quietus! I will test your equation when I get home. But I'm sure it'll hold up: it seems to correspond to what I remember of the effects.

One less thing for me to worry about for my oft-delayed economics guide!

[Bob the Insane]

Great stuff... Any idea how long it takes for the devastation to fade after you kick the squatters out???

[therother]

Ah, it seems I have more data with me than I thought. Luckily I'm in an expansion phase of my current game, so a number of my provinces that have devastation for one reason or another.

 
Farming	RepDev	Tiles	CalcDev	Diff(Reported-Calced Dec)
456	95	2	91.2	3.8	
340	34	1	34	0	
240	24	1	24	0	
836	83	1	83.6	-0.6	
912	373	4	364.8	8.2	
684	143	2	136.8	6.2	}Same city, only
760	159	2	152	7	}building farms
544	326	6	326.4	-0.4	
408	244	6	244.8	-0.8

[The last two are yours.]

As you can see, your equation works pretty well, especially for those settlements with only one tile affected and who had a normal harvest.

There is a discrepency for high tile numbers though, including in your own example (244/40.8) = 5.98 (*)

Quite what is causing the slight aberation, I don't know. Perhaps it has to do with difficulty level, harvest, length of devastation time, etc.

(*) You got a little mixed up with your example in your last post. Threw me for a bit.

Edit: Perhaps I should make clear how I calculated CalcDev, in case I have messed it up.

CalcDev = 0.1* Farming Income*Number of Tiles affected

[therother]

Here's the figures for Medium and Very hard. Had less data here, so added grains of salt are suggested:

Farming	RepDev	Tiles	CalDev	Diff

Medium				
912	373	4	364.8	8.2
684	143	2	136.8	6.2
760	159	2	152	7
Very Hard				
775	317	4	310	7
581	122	2	116.2	5.8
640	135	2	128	7

Formula works as well for different difficulties. Largely, I suspect, as farming income is affected by game difficulty, but devastation itself is not.

[Quietus]

Cool therother! I guess it's down to figuring out the base time to trigger the devastation and the period of effect before it fades.

[Soulflame]

Here's the figures for Medium and Very hard. Had less data here, so added grains of salt are suggested:

TABLE

Formula works as well for different difficulties. Largely, I suspect, as farming income is affected by game difficulty, but devastation itself is not.

Well, it is, but indirectly (through farming). Funny enough, this would cause devastation to be lower (absolute numbers), because the farm income on higher difficulty is lower...

[therother]

Well, it is, but indirectly (through farming). Funny enough, this would cause devastation to be lower (absolute numbers), because the farm income on higher difficulty is lower...

Hmm, I kind of thought that's exactly what I just said? Was it ambiguous? I ask as that more or less how I'm writing it in the guide I'm currently preparing.

Edit: Rereading, perhaps I should be clearer. I meant that Base Devastation Value, as Quietus calls it, doesn't rise on more difficult settings. Of course, the number of bandits and invading armies most certainly does...

[Vincent Butler]

You can use devastation to see if an army is hiding in fog of war or in ambush. It seems that if they have been there for a little while (hard to tell how many turns) you will see the devastation where they are, even if you can't see them. From what I can tell, the longer they have been there, the more devastation there will be.