Diplomatic mechanics theory

**Tamur** · 10-12-2004, 23:25

I just wrote this up as a first draft for a section of the Diplomacy guide. But there are lots of folks who have been messing around with this area, and I am hoping to get some feedback.

Specifically, I have a hypothesis for the acceptance of a proposal based on environmental factors, and on factors internal to the proposal. If anyone can think of other factors that apply than the ones I have listed, please add them! I'm sure to be missing something here.

Important! This is not fact, it is simply a theory based on a lot of experimentation. I wrote it up because I needed to get my thoughts organised, not because I wanted to express the One True Way of diplomacy equations.

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After you table a proposal, that proposal is considered by your negotiating partner. This is by far the most crucial part of the diplomatic process – based on their thinking during this phase of negotiation, either you "win" or "lose" the session.

Variables: NR & FR

It appears that there is a simple scale rating (we'll say with values of 0 to 100) which is a measure of your faction's Negotiation Reliability as seen by that faction (NR for short). This is not universal -- each faction in the game will have an NR rating for your faction. For example, if the Egyptians have your faction pegged at NR = 25, then you'll have to work very hard, or pay a ton of "bribe" Single Payment, to shove a proposal through with them. The same proposal, given to the Greeks (who have you at NR = 80), would go through with no problem.

It also appears that there is a scale rating (again, we'll say it has values of 0 to 100) by which factions rank the feasibility of the current proposal. We'll call this the Feasibility Rating (FR for short). If you put forth a proposal that has FR = 100, then it is considered completely do-able by your negotiating partner.

Proposal Consideration

When a proposal is evaluated by a faction, they use their NR rating of your faction, combined with the FR of the proposal, to make a decision. Again, we hypothesise an Acceptance Rating variable (AR), and say that the equation is a simple:

AR = (NR + FR) / 2

Based on values of 0-100 for both NR and FR, the proposal will be accepted if AR is 50 or greater.

What builds NR?

A faction's NR (Negotiation Reliability) value toward your faction seems to be built from the following environmental factors:

you have lived by your agreements with all other factions (positive)
you have lived by your agreements with the faction whose NR is being calculated (positive * 2)
you have given unprompted cash gifts (negative)
cultural difference penalties (negative) or similarity benefits (positive)
others...?

What builds FR?

A proposal's FR (Feasibility Rating) is affected by:

The cash value balance of the offer and demand sides. This seems to include regions as well as Single Payments and Regular Tribute.
The economic-system (not cash) value of rejection and acceptance (i.e. "Does acceptance or rejection bring us greater economic benefits?")
The military value of rejection and acceptance (i.e. "Does acceptance or rejection bring us greater military strength?")
The threat value of the proposal (i.e. "If we reject this proposal, are we in greater danger of attack?")
Whether or not they have the resources (military, cash, etc) to respond to your Demands
others...?

Examples

( will be giving examples of possible proposals and ratings down here )

**Alexander the Pretty Good** · 10-12-2004, 23:39

Wow. Even if this isn't true, that is nice work, Tamur.

I love TW diplomacy... though it would be nice to get a general or even vague idea of the Realibility and Feasibility factors... In Victoria, it was too easy, with out and out percents and such on success of diplomatic offers. So I don't think percents and numbers should be used, but having your diplomat give an estimate ("I don't think they will except this" or "They should really like this") would be nice.

Anyway, a pint for your great work.

**Tamur** · 10-13-2004, 00:09

Originally Posted by Alexander the Pretty Good

...having your diplomat give an estimate ("I don't think they will except this" or "They should really like this") would be nice.

You can sort-of blunder around and guess (from, say, the fact that a faction won't accept an Alliance offer and you've got them matched for strength, you're probably below 50 on the NR factor). But what you're suggesting would be absolutely brilliant, some nice simple effective feedback.

**therother** · 10-13-2004, 02:57

What is known for certain is dull. Max Perutz

Good old Max. Met him once, very briefly, down in Cambridge. Great man. Great scientist. Great loss.

Anyway, you are making diplomacy dull Tamur!

**Tamur** · 10-13-2004, 03:12

(person reading original post)

Oh no!

I thought after I posted, "Maybe this is a bit overboard, like writing out the Eleusinian Mysteries." Though I'm not sure that the Mysteries had any math involved.