My experiences are similar: the Romans are generally strong, although the Julii and Bruti do the best, Egypt is just ridiculously powerful, the Gauls do well before the Julii carve through them, Carthage and the Seleucids both slowly disintegrate as the whole world takes a piece of them, Pontus expands, the Parthians and Scythians do nothing, Thrace and Dacia do nothing.
Once, though, I saw the Greeks take all of Anatolia, kicking out the Seleucids and Pontus on their way. Other than that, this game is far too predictable - mainly because Carthage needs beefing up, the Egyptians need toning down, and that might alter things for the better.
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