Investigation of Battle Odds

[Morat]

I wonder if someone could research the factors that determine the strategy map battle odds? I imagine things like number and quality of men, upgrades, commander, and so on.

This seems to be important for getting traits, whether the AI will fight, etc.

[zhuge]

Ok, while waiting for some more data mining on the XP problem, here's some rough data to give some idea of the odds ratio to answer Morat's question above.
Played on VH/VH as Greeks, normal unit size and unless mentioned otherwise, all troops are at full number of men, have no XP, no upgrades and no general leading them.

Enemy		Self					Odds (enemy:self)
1 Peasant	1 Peasant				1:1
		2 Peasant				1:2
		3 Peasant				2:7 ???
		4 Peasant				2:9 ???
		5 Peasant				1:5
		6 Peasant				1:5 (rounding down?)
		7 Peasant				1:10 (rounding up?)
		8 Peasant				1:10

1 Peasant	1 Mil.Hop				1:5
		1 Mil.Hop, 1 Peltast			1:15
		1 Mil.Hop, 2 Peltast			1:20	

		1 Peltast				1:10
		1 Peltast, 1 Peasant			1:10
		2 Peltast, 1 Peasant			1:15

		1 Hoplite				1:15
		1 Hoplite, 1 Mil.Hop			1:25
		1 Hoplite, 1 Peltast			1:25
		1 Hoplite, 1 Peltast, 1 Mil.Hop		1:30
		1 Hoplite, 1 Peltast, 1 Mil.Cav		1:30
		1 Hoplite, 1 Peltast, 2 Mil.Hop		1:40

		1 ArmorHop				1:35
		1 ArmorHop, 1 Peltast			1:40
		1 ArmorHop, 2 Peltast			1:50
		1 ArmorHop, 2 Peltast, 1 Mil.Hop	1:50
		1 ArmorHop, 1 Hoplite			1:50

		1 Mil.Cav				1:10
		1 Mil.Cav, 1 Mil.Hop			1:15
		1 Mil.Cav, 1 Peltast			1:15
		1 Mil.Cav, 1 Mil.Hop, 1 Peltast		1:20

1 Town Militia	1 Peasant				5:1
		2 Peasant				5:2
		1 Mil.Hop				1:1	
		1 Mil.Cav				1:2
		1 Mil.Cav, 1 Peasant			1:2
		1 Hoplite				1:3

		1 Peasant (+weapon upg)			5:2
		1 Peasant (+weapon upg), 2 Peasant	5:4	
		1 Hoplite (+weapon upg)			1:4
		2 Hoplite (+weapon upg)			1:7
		3 Hoplite (+weapon upg)			1:10
		1 Mil.Hop (+weapon upg)			1:1

2 Peltast + 	1 Peasant				25:1		
1 Heavy Peltast	1 Peltast, 1 Peasant			5:2
		2 Peltast				5:3
		2 Peltast, 1 Mil.Cav			5:4
		3 Peltast				5:4
		3 Peltast, 1 Peasant			1:1
		2 Peltast, 1 Mil.Cav, 1 Peasant		1:1
		3 Peltast, 1 Mil.Cav, 1 Peasant		6:5

As you can see, rounding fractions here is extremely quirky.
If there's anyone who wants to have a crack at data interpretation you are more than welcome to try. And if we feel that it is worth opening up a new thread on it, go right ahead. Thanks.

[Oaty]

It was always my assumption that the odds were figured out by the recruitment costs of what they would cost in a custom battle. Also not all peasants are the same some cost 100 while others cost 120 or 150.

So if you have 5 plain Roman peasants wich would cost 500 total in custom battle and went up against a unit of hastati that cost 500 with it's upgrade the odds would be 1 to 1. Of course even if the A.I was using the peasants, it would probably win due to sheer numbers even though the odds are 1 to 1.

[Shadar]

Oaty: Peasants are an absolutely horrible example. They got poor morale so all bigger numbers does is increase the chain-routing effect.

[Kraxis]

I was suprised to see Peasants are equaled to Militia Hoplites... MH will beat them like a stick beating a rug... Easily.

I don't think the odds are perfect, or even close to it. But it does take into account experience of troops and the commander. That is most obvious in naval battles where I have had odds go in my favour with a single understrength Trireme (three star admiral) going up against three full Triremes (and I won clearly).

[Simetrical]

Militia hoplites aren't equalled to peasants. They're considered five times as powerful.

Anyway, what we really need to do is modify stats to see if they affect the odds. Just comparing units isn't a good idea, because you're basically changing a whole bunch of variables at once.

-Simetrical

[Kraxis]

Ahh now I see... I was hugely confused by the setup. Couldn't understand how the same units had different odds at times, yet I couldn't see the difference. It lies in the subtle little spaces and kommas.