The main problem with the Japanese strategy to my mind, was actually starting the war. I really can't see how the could have won. There was no way they could invade the mainland USA, and once the USA got its maufacturing up to strength, it was game over. Plus, by opening the war in the manner that they did, they got US public opinion fired up to such an extent that a settlement in which Japan was granted a sphere of infulence ove the pacific was all but impossible.