We don't really know exactly how effective Phillip thought his pikemen would be.

The most popular theory that I've heard is that he wanted troops who could stand up to hoplites, and he took Iphicrates reforms a step further to achieve this.

So basically the pikemen were hoplite-equivalents - but much cheaper, and without the need to reorganise Macedonian society along Greek lines.

AFAIK when hoplites and pikemen met the pikes won only after all the rest of hte hoplite army was defeated and the hoplites isolated - such as at Granikos and Issos. This implies that hoplites and pikemen were evenly matched.